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  • #140,901
  • Jun 8, 2016 10:27am Jun 8, 2016 10:27am
Sisse.... can u pls look at the last mid term maps I posted??

Q1: what is the general sequence in sell/buy mode in any frame? E.g. in sell going from top (as in my second chart):

?? extreme lvl - top of range - flip - low of range (=momentum line???) - intermadiate stop - 1st target - extension target ??

Q2: when you change from neutral to sell (see chart 1-2)

Can you turn low of range into momentum line and extreme low into intermediate stop?

OR

should it be like in this chart - extreme low of neutral range into momentum line and new lower line becomes intermediate stop?

Thank you .)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #140,902
  • Edited 11:01am Jun 8, 2016 10:46am | Edited 11:01am
chester123,

I think I understand what you are trying to explain here. Perhaps, clarification can be given here; but, not by me as I am little confused now and don't want to create any more confusion.

What I have learned is OUTLOOK decides whether I will BUY or SELL or be sidelined. And, Positioning, during these OUTLOOKS, are KEY while yielding to the TIMING on whether I will BUY, SELL or be sidelined at the level it is at.

As I stated before, we are in SHORT TERM NEUTRAL and MID TERM SELL. Therefore, I am looking to position for a SELL at the extreme to target looking at PRICE ACTION. Currently, in the range we are in .161X is an extreme; however, I am not sure we will get there again so .14XX may be an extreme for now. If OUTLOOK changed to SHORT TERM SELL then we have a great opportunity to continue to SELL once we are in the CENTER as well. I think your MAPS are good.

However, sisse never did reply as to what the new FLIP was as he has it alot higher than .14XX I believe. This confuses me as I thought the FLIP was more at .106X as this is where I see PA going to and from for since last yr. Perhaps, there is a SHORT TERM FLIP he is referring to that's higher and a MID TERM FLIP around the area we are looking at ect .106x is MID TERM FLIP.

All the best as you are very good at understanding this more than me.
  • #140,903
  • Jun 8, 2016 12:59pm Jun 8, 2016 12:59pm
Quoting chester123
Sisse.... can u pls look at the last mid term maps I posted?? Q1: what is the general sequence in sell/buy mode in any frame? E.g. in sell going from top (as in my second chart): ?? extreme lvl - top of range - flip - low of range (=momentum line???) - intermadiate stop - 1st target - extension target ?? Q2: when you change from neutral to sell (see chart 1-2) Can you turn low of range into momentum line and extreme low into intermediate stop? OR should it be like in this chart - extreme low of neutral range into momentum line and new lower line...
Wow Chester congrats, this looks like a very logical map to me! I'm still in doubt about the direction... people whose opinion I also value are also eyeballing 1.17 and even 1.2x. Anyway I'm reloading sell stops to catch any waves down. I could also put my buy stops ready but I have less confidence in the upside so I'd rather stay out. If it does go up instead however, I won't get hurt because my sell stops wouldn't be hit either and I could add sell stops higher up after the action.
  • #140,904
  • Jun 8, 2016 2:38pm Jun 8, 2016 2:38pm
Hi guys..for me if mid-term outlook is sell & short-term outlook is neutral, I would be actively looking for an sell entry at the high extreme of the short-term range
or I would wait for the short-term outlook to change to sell & look for breaks of the current short-term flip or a break of the short term range extreme lows...would probably look for retests of breakout points first.

A question for sisse..you changed your short-term outlook to neutral on May 31th...would the previous short-term range be discarded somewhat & a new range currently being created from the low on the 31st of May to the current high?...
  • #140,905
  • Jun 8, 2016 2:51pm Jun 8, 2016 2:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}sideways is the new down, soon to be followed by.....yes, up is the new sideways,....then, full helicopter money
Copy paste day again, same old story, US Equities grinding the highs without a break ...no break, no shake no nothing ...a no reports in between ...nothing to see or do ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,906
  • Jun 8, 2016 2:55pm Jun 8, 2016 2:55pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Copy paste day again, same old story, US Equities grinding the highs without a break ...no break, no shake no nothing ...a no reports in between ...nothing to see or do ... sisse
any speculation on Draghi rhetoric tomorrow?
  • #140,907
  • Jun 8, 2016 3:31pm Jun 8, 2016 3:31pm
...and we indeed seem we learnt something after 10 iterations. Very well done chester123 Red Pirate mayafx and well done too PAStalker IMARICH1 eborn. No losers either as stops held for a scratch trade to sellers but definitively would recommend some to read the earlier iterations to check if the point we are trying to achieve clicks or not ...

I am sure some of you have a very clear idea by now how important is to map and plan a trade with proper R:R instead of a machine gun approach. For some around specially in the bottom 30, pass this stage, despite the technicalities of trading and I can guarantee you will be in a whole different path for a more consistent trading approach ....

Quoting sisse
--> Question 10: ECB settle, FED settle, no news on sight how would you trade the next leg?....

--> Question 10: Did I learn anything ? ...

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.139x++++

(total time 3 days)

-> LMT BUY 1.137x -> TP1 => 1.147x | STP => 1.133x | max r:r -=> 2:1


No touch (for 3 days) | 1.133x or 1.142x | max r:r -=> 2:1 [check]

chester123

Red Pirate

mayafx

PAStalker (but not in)

IMARICH1 (but not in)

eborn (but not in)


-> LMT SELL 1.137x -> TP1 => 1.127x | STP => 1.142x | max r:r -=> 2:1

rk00

build11

Earleone

goosebone

chronical

CommercialB

glassblower




++++FINAL Standing table after 10 iterations ++++


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Final table.png Size: 443 KB


--> A big shout @ Chester123 that kick ass and finish 1st with an impressive ROI of 45% and to the other top 16 that ended up in the money. A shout too @IMARICH1 that started this whole set ended up 2nd realising (or maybe not) that this result is very impressive ROI of 30% ...that will put some of the gurus, fortune tellers and commercial BShitters around these boards to shame.

--> I can see this set of iterations has triggered lots of interests and more importantly very interesting comments and charts for traders looking at markets from a different and more balance point view outside of the BS and myths that usually destroy retail traders and newbies.

--> Well done all and thanks for jumping in the exercises. Its becoming harder to manage the tables and flows. A couple of traders have offered to put it in a more dynamic and automatic way to display the results and flows so let see how that goes ...

For now we can start thinking on the next set of iterations to cover other topics of interests and discuss while trading live as I think is the best way to make these conversations useful, active and interesting for all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,908
  • Jun 8, 2016 3:54pm Jun 8, 2016 3:54pm
Quoting sisse
...and we indeed seem we learnt something after 10 iterations. Very well done chester123 Red Pirate mayafx and well done too PAStalker IMARICH1 eborn.
I can second that. These 10 iterations have put a lot of things into perspective. I feel much more comfortable now to let a run-away train pass by then to jump on board and let it wreck me...
  • #140,909
  • Jun 8, 2016 8:41pm Jun 8, 2016 8:41pm
Quoting sisse
...and we indeed seem we learnt something...................I can see this set of iterations has triggered lots of interests and more importantly very interesting comments and charts for traders looking at markets from a different and more balance point view outside of the BS and myths that usually destroy retail traders and newbies. -
Figuring out what I dont know has been a remarkably valuable 1st step towards figuring out what I need to know. Exercises showed me if I stayed the path I was on it would likely end abruptly and soon.
  • #140,910
  • Jun 8, 2016 9:13pm Jun 8, 2016 9:13pm
Quoting bullionman
{quote} Vorex, IMARICH1 said "..in SELL you SELL from INSIDE OUT and at EXTREMES" ..but his paraphrase (typo?) may have caused a little confusion regarding the 'SELL from INSIDE OUT' wording.
Yes Bullionman that's why I'm confused because from what I understand it is to buy from "inside out", for example when price was at the extreme 1.14x to 1.15x was to buy at the top to the outside ( to a price where we haven't reached for a while like 1.16 or 1.17) which I don't like buying at the top or sell at the bottom.
but to sell from the Outside to the inside meaning to sell the extremes of 1.14x to 1.15x to inside ( around 1.13x) that makes sense.
Thanks for clarifying it.
Quoting IMARICH1
IN a NEUTRAL OUTLOOK you trade at EXTREMES to TARGET and not in the CENTER.
IMARCH, sorry but I'm not understanding what you mean by this, are you saying to sell the extremes and take profit at target or sell the extremes but take profit at the target not the CENTER or don't trade in the CENTER? Sorry but the English language is confusing, it has lot of meanings lol.


Quoting chester123
{quote} chart 1: from 12.5. we were in short term sell. The outlook came when we were on the top of range/under sell extreme. You trade out of the range to the targets.
Chester Thank you very much for taking the time to post a chart, that's explains it much better, appreciate it.
  • #140,911
  • Edited 1:53pm Jun 9, 2016 7:39am | Edited 1:53pm
sisse,

Thanks so much for your time and interest in all of us traders who are trying to become real traders and not the typical roll of the dice traders!!!

I have realized alot! Outlook is KEY, how to trade within the Outlook is KEY, and Time of Trade is Key along with R:R.

Congrats to chester123 who finished 1st and knocked me out of that position. My error was not taking 9th iteration correctly. I thought we were in Outlook SELL Short term and took the wrong position which again illustrates why KNOWING the correct Outlook is priority.

Looking forward to more exercises if you are up to it sisse. Glad I did not disappoint you in these iterations. I know I learned more than what my ROI shows! Thanks again!

STERLING is testing .444X level. sisse do you believe this to be the level to challenge the 2009 low? I was looking at .434X to complete a faster drop to .36XX And, is OUTLOOK in GPB Short, Mid and Long Term SELL?
  • #140,912
  • Jun 10, 2016 3:15am Jun 10, 2016 3:15am
Sisse,

what is your view on the DAX? Is your profile view (bullish strong) still in play?

many thanks in advance
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #140,913
  • Jun 10, 2016 7:56am Jun 10, 2016 7:56am
Quoting sisse
Finally and for those in the CAD trade, clearing second target in the swing on the failure to take 1.284x [check]
...and I will take that in CAD before NY that keep providing the simplest ride across the Fx board. Clearing 3er target on the second test 1.267x and we'll need a extra hand to break below ...

Quoting sisse
... Short term in a light week Euro in a pure TA setup with 1.128x [check] naked for a quick retrace (but more than prolly the 1.13xx handle is already protected) for the last soft leg up before the FED....
On the Euro, as widely expected in a soft technical week, 1.128x tested right on time to close the week and its choose your poison time short term for those pre positioning for the FED.

On the rest of the board not much to see with equities just choppy around the highs in need of extra data. Eyes on NY as they have a the upper hand to settle the week for the FED.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,914
  • Jun 10, 2016 8:23am Jun 10, 2016 8:23am
Quoting chester123
Sisse.... can u pls look at the last mid term maps I posted?? Q1: what is the general sequence in sell/buy mode in any frame? E.g. in sell going from top (as in my second chart): ?? extreme lvl - top of range - flip - low of range (=momentum line???) - intermadiate stop - 1st target - extension target ?? Q2: when you change from neutral to sell (see chart 1-2) Can you turn low of range into momentum line and extreme low into intermediate stop? OR should it be like in this chart - extreme low of neutral range into momentum line and new lower line...
Nice charts. Not really what I got in my side but they look proper and tradable maps and thats what it matter, isn't it?.

On your questions:

--> Q1: what is the general sequence in sell/buy mode in any frame? E.g. in sell going from top (as in my second chart):

Well not really sure you are looking at this from the right angle. Let me be clear in this: There is no recipe for that.

Depends on the context, the area in play, the current volatility and more importantly what FA movers and shakers are in play. It will be easier to define something when you are trading inside of a range as the areas can be more 'predictable' for the flows especially if the majority of retail already spotted the range and are fibbing around, etc. However, on the extensions will depend on past reference if there are any valid from the TA side and some weak 'magic' lines as reference for targets when trading ATH/ATL extensions.

For the actual flows of a leg, you will need to add in your map some 'signs' on key S/R and turning points (not necessarily in charts but in expectations) that allow you to navigate with more confidence. We'll try to look for some real cases in future iterations ....

--> Q2: when you change from neutral to sell (see chart 1-2) Can you turn low of range into momentum line and extreme low into intermediate stop?

Depends. Sorry to sound so vague but really depends on the area and levels but definitely NO by default. A momentum line can be spotted in charts in the levels where current one side (longs or shorts) will be completed out of risk scope to hold any longer. Basically only large non speculative hands (hedge funds, int. business on swaps and futures, and some macro funds) and suckers will sit holding beyond ...

This is one of the key areas to spot for locating who is in control. There is not always easy but with experience you may get most of them and if you are in the right train you will make a killer. Even i you spot them correctly, don't expect riding them most of the time as they are prolly the hardest areas to hold and ride....

--> should it be like in this chart - extreme low of neutral range into momentum line and new lower line becomes intermediate stop?

Same as above. Depends. In general, it make sense what you say as a rough initial reference on how to make a map but you shouldn't be thinking in such linear way as its not really the way to do it ...

I hope it helps.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,915
  • Jun 10, 2016 9:12am Jun 10, 2016 9:12am
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1.128x tested right on time to close the week and its choose your poison time short term for those pre positioning for the FED. On the rest of the board not much to see with equities just choppy around the highs in need of extra data. Eyes on NY as they have a the upper hand to settle the week for the FED. sisse
Hello Sisse, I would like that you comment the map you would expect for the EURO for one no rate hike for the next FED Meeting. Although maybe is too early to speak about and it is going to depend if we listen a hawkish or dovish speech. Moreover I think this meeting will be contaminated with Brexit Referendum and polls,and no clear direction would be the resul of it.
Anyway it would be nice to speak about it.
  • #140,916
  • Jun 10, 2016 11:30am Jun 10, 2016 11:30am
Dollar taking 94.4 atm
  • #140,917
  • Jun 11, 2016 4:48am Jun 11, 2016 4:48am
for anyone with a better insight than me... so most here I presume...
I have a question, as much as interest rates are the main talking point of everyone this week for the FED, everyone pretty much knows that there wont be a hike, so if there isn't a hike would this be bad for the USD because everyone was expecting it and now its been beaten down by bad NFP numbers etc... so the actual expectation is no hike and not much movement ? - or as we saw with NZD, they didn't move rates and its value shot up?

Also what are the expectations of Yellen's testimonial and forecasts? they will have an impact that I suspect shall cause more volatility than any interest rate talk, unless there is a surprise which seems unlikely due to Brexit week later and China fuckry atm...
  • #140,918
  • Jun 11, 2016 9:00am Jun 11, 2016 9:00am
Quoting Don96
for anyone with a better insight than me... so most here I presume... I have a question, as much as interest rates are the main talking point of everyone this week for the FED, everyone pretty much knows that there wont be a hike, so if there isn't a hike would this be bad for the USD because everyone was expecting it and now its been beaten down by bad NFP numbers etc... so the actual expectation is no hike and not much movement ? - or as we saw with NZD, they didn't move rates and its value shot up? Also what are the expectations of Yellen's testimonial...
Seems like a fairly simple and direct trading scenario to me...

FED has prepared the market for a June/July hike all year, except after the last dreadful report- Yellen seems to be back peddling a bit. So no hike this month and next month will either chop or have an expected move back up to the recent high.

The big FU, is if the fed DOES hike this month, that will catch a lot of large hands on the wrong side across every market

My vote is no hike, chop & grind to the highs.

Brexit vote is arguably more important to the EU this month than hikes. After Brexit is decided, the focus on July hikes will be the larger market mover regarding rate hike plays this summer
  • #140,919
  • Jun 11, 2016 9:19am Jun 11, 2016 9:19am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Seems like a fairly simple and direct trading scenario to me... FED has prepared the market for a June/July hike all year, except after the last dreadful report- Yellen seems to be back peddling a bit. So no hike this month and next month will either chop or have an expected move back up to the recent high. The big FU, is if the fed DOES hike this month, that will catch a lot of large hands on the wrong side across every market My vote is no hike, chop & grind to the highs. Brexit vote is arguably more important to the EU this month...
Okay so because expectation was hike in june- when she announces no hike will it really need a surprise ?And what's the situation on Japan? Advice is to buy more bonds a month to increase money supply - but brexit looks likely to cause risk off sentiment in market for a while, SP and equities might drop from this high along with gators UJ closer to 100.x I don't trust BOJ at all and I was hoping I would get 106.0x this week to close couple of shorts because I could find myself up shits Creek with them all crushed by anything dodgy from fed or BOJ
+don't forget the rate hike seems to be layed off completely from June so no one expects in anyway - Yellen testimonial and press conference is after and I recon this will be the mover of the US
  • #140,920
  • Jun 11, 2016 11:10am Jun 11, 2016 11:10am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Seems like a fairly simple and direct trading scenario to me... FED has prepared the market for a June/July hike all year, except after the last dreadful report- Yellen seems to be back peddling a bit. So no hike this month and next month will either chop or have an expected move back up to the recent high. The big FU, is if the fed DOES hike this month, that will catch a lot of large hands on the wrong side across every market My vote is no hike, chop & grind to the highs. Brexit vote is arguably more important to the EU this month than...
I agree with you with no rate hike this month. It's a nonsense from one CB like the FED to rate hike one week before one high risk event like the Brexit referendum and moreover with polls showing 55% to leave. It's a nonsense. What I am not sure is about the movements, because the important thing this month is the referendum. Maybe the rate no hike is now assumed and the recent highs are now the resistance and the movement has been done after the NFP,so as you said, choppy because the market has digested till 1,1415 the rate no hike.
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