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AUD/USD

  • #97,621
  • Jun 6, 2016 4:33pm Jun 6, 2016 4:33pm
Today is the interest rate decision and can we expect it to drop another quarter or will it remain the same?
it rubs the lotion on its skin
  • #97,622
  • Jun 6, 2016 4:39pm Jun 6, 2016 4:39pm
Quoting big-cheez
Today is the interest rate decision and can we expect it to drop another quarter or will it remain the same?
Same
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,623
  • Jun 6, 2016 4:40pm Jun 6, 2016 4:40pm
Quoting big-cheez
Today is the interest rate decision and can we expect it to drop another quarter or will it remain the same?
Only an 8% chance it will be cut this meeting so don't expect as big a move as last month. Direction may be determined more by the wording or it could be removal of a downside risk will prompt upside move that needs to break resistance to form convincing higher high on daily chart.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #97,624
  • Jun 6, 2016 4:41pm Jun 6, 2016 4:41pm
AUD @ .7367

How much crap data is needed to send this currency lower?

Construction index contracting, the worst in 33 months .

This was meant to be the country's saviour .. the so called transition but that too is failing.

Concern here is the Australian banks are exposed big time to the construction industry and that of housing.

They have a habit of pulling the rug underneath their customers without warning.

Tick tock ...
  • #97,625
  • Jun 6, 2016 5:06pm Jun 6, 2016 5:06pm
Quoting lasty
AUD @ .7367 How much crap data is needed to send this currency lower? Construction index contracting, the worst in 33 months . This was meant to be the country's saviour .. the so called transition but that too is failing. Concern here is the Australian banks are exposed big time to the construction industry and that of housing. They have a habit of pulling the rug underneath their customers without warning. Tick tock ...
Quickest way down for A/U would actually be for some good data .... from the US. Whilst some reports suggest US is in recovery mode it seems the majority of US posters on FF are skeptical (to put it lightly). If Aussie and US economy are both struggling don't expect A/U to go down much, if at all.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #97,626
  • Jun 6, 2016 5:12pm Jun 6, 2016 5:12pm
Quoting lasty
AUD @ .7367 How much crap data is needed to send this currency lower? Construction index contracting, the worst in 33 months . This was meant to be the country's saviour .. the so called transition but that too is failing. Concern here is the Australian banks are exposed big time to the construction industry and that of housing. They have a habit of pulling the rug underneath their customers without warning. Tick tock ...
Building approvals last week was much stronger than expected and showed strong expansion (and it's far more important of an indicator than the AIG index), so there's no solid data to back the claim construction is contracting just yet.

Banks are not exposed to construction sector much at all, here all new developments are funded "off the plan" - ie. people buy the apartments before they are built, banks have relatively little involvement in that financing. If not enough people buy the properties, the development projects get abandoned, and the developer loses some money maybe, but not the bank.

The only big immediate risk to Australian banks is Australia losing it's AAA credit rating, which will send funding costs skyrocketting and result in an increase in home loan rates, which will cause an increase in defaults, etc. Could send the whole housing bubble crashing down. That's the risk to the banks - not construction.
  • #97,627
  • Jun 6, 2016 5:27pm Jun 6, 2016 5:27pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} Building approvals last week was much stronger than expected and showed strong expansion (and it's far more important of an indicator than the AIG index), so there's no solid data to back the claim construction is contracting just yet. Banks are not exposed to construction sector much at all, here all new developments are funded "off the plan" - ie. people buy the apartments before they are built, banks have relatively little involvement in that financing. If not enough people buy the properties, the development projects get abandoned, and...
Who told you banks are not exposed to construction much at all?
Have you ever been a real estate developer?

I purchased land and sell off plan town houses and apartments in AU. Once my off-plan sold to customers, banks will approve my loan for construction. If customer failed to settlement, developers will have troubles in construction loan and bank will have trouble then.

BTW, developing houses become very low return in Australia, because local people's income can't afford. That's the reason why AUD should be going down, and interest rates should be cut further. Construction sector absorb lots of labor in this country, now is slowing down. Still purchasing house and land, but slow down the development is what we are doing now.
  • #97,628
  • Jun 6, 2016 5:30pm Jun 6, 2016 5:30pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Quickest way down for A/U would actually be for some good data .... from the US. Whilst some reports suggest US is in recovery mode it seems the majority of US posters on FF are skeptical (to put it lightly). If Aussie and US economy are both struggling don't expect A/U to go down much, if at all.
If RBA announce potential rate cut, plenty of room to fall, that the only thing keep AUD above water. Inflation estimation is still below expectation. Ore has been falling up until the US weakness on Friday. RBA didn't like the AUD above 0.75. Fed still looking to raise rates with right data - which had been coming up until Friday. Lots of downside indicators.

38k jobs in US is really weird though.
  • #97,629
  • Jun 6, 2016 6:07pm Jun 6, 2016 6:07pm
I do like this report by AIG.

http://www.aigroup.com.au/portal/bin...y%25202016.pdf

It gives you a complete synopsis of whats going on in Australia.
  • #97,630
  • Jun 6, 2016 6:58pm Jun 6, 2016 6:58pm
I think it is time to short. Is anybody else jumping on board here?
  • #97,631
  • Jun 6, 2016 7:08pm Jun 6, 2016 7:08pm
Quoting USDollar
#AUDUSD Pyramid style trading has begun long @ 0.7242 @ 0.7298..... Aussie working on wave 3...... {image}
Also scaling in...
First long off the monthly pivot - 0.7364
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  • #97,632
  • Jun 6, 2016 8:20pm Jun 6, 2016 8:20pm
went short @ market... sl 30 pips...
  • #97,633
  • Jun 6, 2016 9:39pm Jun 6, 2016 9:39pm
"though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this."

I love this little gem tucked away in the statement.

Goes up 50 pips immediately. Theres your instant complication Glenn.
  • #97,634
  • Jun 6, 2016 9:51pm Jun 6, 2016 9:51pm
Quoting SkyrEk
Sometimes, all we need is one naked daily chart to do our analysis. Start of 2016 - Mid April 2016 - Up trend. Mid April 2016 - Present - Down Trend. Question here will be, is it going to fall like how it went up continuously? We have reached a zone full of confluence support (some call it the congestion area) *between .7100- .7150* Place your bets. I'll show my trade result after i take profit. That will take awhile but i will keep all posted on my resultant trade. {image}


Just an update on my post on 25 May 2016 (page4871). Not taking profit yet.
Thanks NFP and Stevens!

Points to note:
Above 200MA
Break out from 4hr trendline.

Counter trend trades are profitable too. Who will like to disagree?
Anyway, with all due respect, regardless of which bias you are on, as long we pump up our bank accounts... nothing else matters.
That is what a trader does, we react, not forecast.
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  • #97,635
  • Jun 6, 2016 9:52pm Jun 6, 2016 9:52pm
Quoting redalert
"though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this." I love this little gem tucked away in the statement. Goes up 50 pips immediately. Theres your instant complication Glenn.
  • #97,636
  • Edited 1:42am Jun 7, 2016 1:09am | Edited 1:42am
AUD h4 1,61 1,75 fib w3 ?
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  • #97,637
  • Jun 7, 2016 2:27am Jun 7, 2016 2:27am
Not sure how high this is going, 75 anyone?
  • #97,638
  • Jun 7, 2016 2:36am Jun 7, 2016 2:36am
Quoting galvcore
Not sure how high this is going, 75 anyone?
85 at least, my friend. if you want to short, wait till then.
  • #97,639
  • Jun 7, 2016 2:51am Jun 7, 2016 2:51am
Quoting galvcore
Not sure how high this is going, 75 anyone?
0.75 - I think it is too much for a correction. Let's see if it is over!
  • #97,640
  • Jun 7, 2016 5:03am Jun 7, 2016 5:03am
#AUDUSD so far Aussie is bringing the $$$$$$$ pyramid style in effect long @ 0.7242, 0.7298, and 0.7362 / trailing SL @ 0.7333.... Major Res ahead.... so tighten Stop
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"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
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