Trading Ideas

Trading ideas before the week 30 starts:

GBPUSD short

Entry: 1.5670 - 1.5630

SL: 1.57

Targets: 1.55 and 1.535


GBPCHF short

Entry: 1.50

SL: 1.505

Target: 1.48


CADNOK long

Entry: < 6.26

SL: 6.22

Target: 6.41

Video filmed by a tourist. It is of frenchman Alain Robert. No safety equipment is used in the clip on the mountain wall.

Learn from his discipline and self control. His exposure to risk and how to handle it.

Do not be impulsive or let feelings disturb your acchievements.

Be clear and consise. Never feel bad about a trade lost or joy for a trade won.

Celebrate or mourn in the Friday evening, even better at the end of the month when you sum up your account balance.

http://www.vgtv.no/#!/video/115044/d...g-uten-sikring

EURGBP long

Entry: 0.6930 - 0.6950

SL: 0.6920

Target: 0.7060

Note: This trade has a strong correlation with the short GBPCHF trade. In reality taking both positions means that your are increasing the leverage. It also works as a confirmation that both trades are valid, due to the confirmation of the signals for both pairs.

For the EURCHF pair I have signals that is bearish. I consider the CHF to be stronger than the EUR. My pick therefore is to short the GBPCHF.

AUDCHF short

Entry: > 0.71

SL: 0.7140

Target: 0.6960


AUDJPY short

Entry: > 91.60

SL: 92.30

Target: 89.50


EURAUD long

Entry: < 1.4680

SL: 1.4640

Target: 1.5050


Note: RBA minutes this night. I am getting strong signals that is bearish AUD. Know the risk of entering a trade before important fundamentals. AUDCHF and EURAUD is moving opposite of eachother. Picking both is the same as using leverage.

EURUSD long

Entry: < 1,0825

SL: 1.0790

Target: 1.1050

Rather slow moving markets. Could be a good idea to lock in some profits earlier than normal.

GBPUSD long

Entry: =< 1.5550

SL: 1.5520

Target: 1.5670

Trading ideas before the start of week 32:

General trends in the market: USD and JPY strenghtening. CHF weakening. This leads to the following trading idea:

USDCHF long

Entry: < 0.9650

SL: 0.9545

Target: 1.0000

More to come...

EURCAD short

Entry: > 1.4350

SL: 1.44

Target: < 1.42

Trading ideas before the start of week 33:

USDJPY short (alternatively GBPJPY short)

Entry: > 124.40

SL: > 125.10

Target: < 123.00



EURCAD short

Entry: > 1.44

SL: > 1.4450 alternatively > 1.45

Targets: 1) 1.43 2) 1.42 3) 1.40

Note: I am expecting a larger bearish move for this pair. If it is reaching 1.40 I will try to still hold parts of the trade for longer term. Also there is a positive swap for holding this trade.


GBPCHF short

Entry: 1.5250 - 1.5360

SL: > 1.5310

Targets: 1) 1.50 2) 1.48



CADNOK long

Entry: < 6.26

SL: < 6.2250

Target: > 6.33



General trend: CAD strenghtening. JPY strenghtening. GBP weakening.

General note: AUDCHF and AUDJPY nearing major resistance. Signals given in this area might trigger short signals/position. This is a test of the AUD recovery. The two trades I am looking to take is the one I already have, short EURCAD and also short GBPCHF.

As a human, we are possessed with a set of natural instincts. These instincts are there to aid our survival. Some of these instincts are a result of thousands of year of evolution.

In a set enviroment these instincts are a good thing and have a valid purpose. In the modern world there are tasks and enviroments where these instincts have to be altered/mastered/made to not trigger impulses to your brain, as originally intended.

One very important instinct is fear. It comes into account in different forms. Fear of heights is surival instinct. It makes us respect heights and to be careful with heights. If you want to parachute, you need to master/overcome this fear.

It is by nature unatural for any human to jump out of an airplane. It is against all instincts. Still the aversion against this action can be lowered. Your natural instinct against it can be reduced. This can be done through training and the right mind-set. Like in the video below:



A hurdle of fear needs to be overcome to be able to perform a different task in another enviroment, very different from our outspring enviroment. This is the enviroment of the Forex market.

If the soldiers from the video hadn`t been able to control their fear, they would never be able to parachute from that plane. This was their intended action. By doing so, they succeeded in what they tried to acchieve.

To succeed in the forex market, you need to control you fear of losing money. Your fear of beeing wrong. Your intention when playing in the market is to place trades and make money from them.

As the soldiers are using techniques to master their fear, so can you do with your fear in the forex market. Below are list of techniques that might be helpful to use:

1. Always use a stop loss. This indicates that you were wrong with the trade when hit. This takes away the uncertainity of how much you are going to loose if the trade goes against you.

2. Risk a small portion of your account for each trade. The exact percentage is up to you. This limit is different from individuals. The important thing is that the amount of money at risk, doesn`t make you uneasy. You can relax and do not have to check the chart the whole time.

3. Plan the trade. Where are your entry and exit points. A plan is based on logical and rational thinking. This helps to exclude emotions. Make decisions based on the former, not the last.

4. Only take trades that you can stand for. Follow your way of trading. Only take a trade when everything is pointing in the same direction. This leads to decreased fear when the trade goes against you. As long as the stop loss haven`t been hit, you are still in the trade.

5. Don`t be afraid of beeing wrong. No person in the history of mankind have never, not made a wrong decision. Neither are you. If you have been wrong about a trade. Reset yourself and start from scratch again. If you notice that you take the wrong trade with you for the next trade. Do not trade. Leave the market.

6. Never think about a trade result as money lost/won. Money and images of what you can get from theme, leads to emotions and fear of loosing money. Try instead to measure the trade as a percentage increase/decrease or amount of pips gathered/lost.

7. Leave the chart when you don`t have to be there. Follow your timeframe. Leave the computer when you don`t have to attend the close of a candle. Remember you have made a plan, it needs time to execute. Put your mind to something else in the meantime.

GBPNOK long

Entry: < 12.80

SL: < 12.73

Targets: 1) 12.90 2) 12.96

GBP appreciation ahead. I expect bullish moves against USD, EUR and NOK. Also I wouldn`t go short on the AUD. Instead it is buying opportunity for the AUD across the board.

EURGBP short

Entry: > 0.7040

SL: > 0.7075

Target: < 0.6970



AUDUSD long

Entry: < 0.7330

SL: < 0.73

Target: 0.7430



GBPUSD long

Entry: < 1.5570

SL: < 1.5520

Target: 1.5670



AUDJPY long

Entry: < 91.40

SL: < 91.10

Target: 92.40



AUDCHF long

Entry: < 0.7220

SL: < 0.7160

Target: 0.73

Another emotion that can leads to a traders failure is GREED. Originally this instinct was developed when we were nomadic gatherers living in and of the nature. At these times food supply were not constant and at times scarce.

When in abundance, you needed to collect also for the poorer times. This instinct of always wanting more needs to be controlled. In its original form greed helped to maintain survival. In our modern society there are more negative aspects of this emotion/instinct, as our enviroment has changed. What before should lead to survival, now can lead to downfall.

Taking this instinct/emotion into the enviroment of the forex market, can lead to your failure as a trader. Often this leads to you beeing unrealistic about how far a trade can go. You will be reluctant to close in/secure profits. Also it can lead to a trader overtrading. Trading with weaker signals and taking far too many trades. Due to the "need" to collect more money.

As with fear, this emotion needs to be controlled. Very much in using similiar techniques for overcoming the impact of greed to your trading. Planning the trade and having clear exit strategies will help. Also do not think about your targets as profits in money. Money you will emotionally try to gather as much as possible. The thoughts of gathering pips or percentage leads to more rationally thinking.

Another technique I have found useful, is to take some profits of a trade early on. The benefit of this is that I have already secured some profits. With more ease I can let the remaining part of the trade continue as profits are secured.

Another benefit is that your remaining stop can be altered dependant on how much risk you want to take. It is possible to manage the remaining part of the position in a risk free way.

That is also another aspect of trading. Reduce risk and try to eliminate as much risk as possible, as early as possible. The less risk involved, the less emotions involved.

Be cool, try to remove your emotions in trading. Then you will see the market more clearly, when your vision of it is not blurred by fear and greed.

Maybe a little simplistic, still the video below shows greed in action.

Stay focused. Concentrate on performance. Remove emotions. If your fear of falling down hinders your performance, you will not be able to perform your action to the fullest.

Still, in forextrading use safety (Stop loss)

http://www.vgtv.no/#!/video/116028/m...en-ikke-sikret

Hey Decima,
this kind of thread should be keeping alive !!!

There are 1245 systems to trade and they all have one in common....fear to use it like a machine, without emotions.

Example: nothing but a ema 8, close.... stay in the trade until the first candle closes "outside" ema no matter what timeframe. No other indis no SR levels, no channels no nothing.

I know pros trading like that and they say: This is all you need. If price goes back into the ema 8, buy back in.

Only one of the 1245 systems.

Why not just close your eyes and trust your system ? FEAR

Please tell us more about winning the fight inside our mind. This is way more helpful than another system and another one... and another one..

Be the voice which tells us everyday: Don`t be afraid, trust in what you do!

No worries Decima, you won´t get paid for that

Thanks Decima.

Trading ideas before the start of week 15:

USDCHF - long

Close to the 0.95 level. Not ready yet. I will await long entry. Also pay attention to the risk sentiment in the market.



USDNOK - long

All fundamentals suggeste that this will change direction to bullish. Norway is continuing to suffer from the fall in oil prices and the strain put on the oil industry.



USDCAD - long

Not ready yet. I suspect at test toward the lower half of the 1.29. This is monitored closely.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

EURCAD - long

A good technical buy signal on the pair.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

EURCHF - long

As with the long USDCHF trade. Monitor risk sentiment. Lots of data coming from China the coming week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

EURNOK - long

Technical analysis indicates that there is NOK weakening ahead.



WTI oil - short

Brent crude signals are more neutral. WTI is clearly showing bearish indications.



I am planning to sell either CAD, NOK or the CHF. Most likely the counterpart will be either USD or EUR. How things evolve will decide things for me.

In general my outlook is bearish on the oil as well. This is based on the signals given for WTI as well to the CAD and NOK.

If anyone has any charts they would like to get posted, let me now and I will put them up at this thread.

Entry long USDNOK (the yellow line)

By now I have gather some experience as an trader. It has been ups and downs. When looking back at the succesful periods they have something in common. The way I have approached trading.

By now I approach it almost as I would have done as an professional athlete trains. To stay focused and disciplined, building up your mentality. For me that has to be to follow strict rules. Impulsive behaviour is lethal for me.

I have found my trading style, it is a mechanical style following a system. This is where the rules comes into play. With my personality and experience, to avoid too much emotions, this is the best way for me. The system is decent enough and should lead to regular profits.

Below are the rules I will follow, they are carved in stone, breaking these are bad discipline and bad trading in my books:

Rules

1. Only trade on closed signals (4h TF leads the way, early entry in the 1h TF before the close of the current 4h candle is allowed)

2. Always follow the entry signal given by the system

3. Only screen time allowed is 15 minutes before the close of the candle and untill it is closed.

4. I always use the same position size for each trade.

5. I never exaggerate the stop loss size. I have a calculation I use, I set the stop not to far from this. Highs/lows/support/resistance etc can modestly alter the stop-loss recommendation by the system.

6. To dare to accept the risk, when entering into a trade. So that I do not set the stop to BE too early.

7. I never increase the stop-loss after it has been set.

8. Never add to a loosing position.

9. I only take maximum 2 positions at the time. Most of the time I will just enter into one position.

10. Before entering another position the stop for the former position will have to be set to BE or close to it.

11. I will always think about the possible outcome of my trade if I am wrong with it. It is better to be a little wrong than enormously wrong.

12. My overall approach is that if I in average can increase my account with 2 percent on average per week, I will double my account in a year. If this is done with a low DD, I am managing to do what most professionals can`t. If this is repeatedly done, a future as a trader is possible.

13. Find your comfort zone when trading. When you are relaxed and at ease you are doing something right.

I will post my trades in this thread. Everyone who wants to join in, are free to contribute. To make me a better trader and yourself a better trader. Below are an example of the charts I will post. Two versions, one with description and one normal one.

A lot of trying and failing has been done. I have learned to code my own indicators. A lot more advanced indicators and presentations have been coded. Still these are the ones that gives the best results. Nothing fancy or sexy about them, still they should be sufficient to make steady profit in the market.





My main purpose of continuing this thread, is to become a better trader. Nothing will be sold or shared. Everyone contributes with their own edge in trading. It is the mental approach as well as sound rules to stick by that is the main discussion of the thread.

At the former close of the 4hour candle I got entry signals for three positions. Short EURUSD, short NZDUSD and short EURGBP. All three entries are counter trade the way I see it. New highs and change of trend starting from last week.

I enter into a short NZDUSD position. Stop loss 45 pips above the entry. If hit I am wrong, no problem. I will try again tomorrow.

I will be more modest at the profit targets when trading against the trend. So at R:R 1:2 marked on the chart I will close atleast half or 3/4 of the position. The remaining I will keep just in case in ventures lower. If the signals clearly indicates that the uptrend will continue I will also close the remaining part of the position.