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Let's Trade Options

  • #13,221
  • Edited 8:11pm Jun 3, 2016 7:38pm | Edited 8:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}BREAKING bull call verts and calendars leaves a bunch of long calls with that sweet p/l upshot to the sky.
67 UVXY Jun 17 long calls, avg strike around $19.50, cost avg around 17c.....risking $1,000 to make a bazillion $$$......hopeless.....10 td's to pop 100%...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,222
  • Jun 4, 2016 2:48am Jun 4, 2016 2:48am
I rather like these VXX weekly combos: match call vert to long put in relation to the skew - now while iv is so low the weeklies are very cheap, so you can put on good size with beer money, go on Friday or Monday.....a $1 move either way will net a positive return, with a bigger move you get into large return territory
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,223
  • Jun 4, 2016 11:41am Jun 4, 2016 11:41am
Quoting The Fool
I rather like these VXX weekly combos: ....a $1 move either way will net a positive return, with a bigger move you get into large return territory
ok, fine, but with VXX at $13, a $2 range starts to be pretty big, and there have been many weeks where you couldn't have got a $1+ net directional move off your midpoint.

16 weeks since the last vix spike, 14/16 red candles....an epic rout
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,224
  • Jun 4, 2016 11:45am Jun 4, 2016 11:45am
equities have risen right along with oil, crashing the ^vix....the oil glut stands to deepen as the price rises and brings the marginal producers out of hiatus..."the new normal" for oil in the $50's, $60-$65 tops? - sounds reasonable, but when are markets reasonable?
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/o...183755762.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,225
  • Jun 5, 2016 11:06am Jun 5, 2016 11:06am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}'sup, zeebs? I hope you had a good week. Mine saw long vol trade craters in my accounts deepening, but there's still some time. re: gold, I been watching it, sorry I had not been in some 2-way options trades in there....
Been doing okay. Just wish I wasn't hand sitting here so much (seems like I haven't done squat trade-wise in days), but really I could probably do for a little more hand sitting. 75% in trades; 25% in cash. Thinking I really should be more in cash here, but I've got a couple short-term SPX "monsters" on ... .

Oil: Waiting for a short opportunity or a vol pop to wade into XOP, OIH again.
GLD: In it; working the roller coaster. I'll dip back into GDX with a premium selling play if it can pop its IVR head back up over 70.
FXE: Another short opp potentially materializing, but I think I'm going to wait for potential Bremain relief rally and then dip in small there with a directional (Goddammit, I missed the pop to 1.16). The Dough/TastyTrade guys dipping in here long dollar in FXE are shooting their wads a tad early, imo. Long-term Euro resistance is around 1.14-1.16, and we ain't there yet.
SPX: It's in slow melt up mode, but bulls may get tired of working toward another ATH, lock in profit, and give up the ATH ghost to dip in lower (although they appear to be dry humping every 20 handle dip here). I see potential upside with a Eurozone market hard-on if it's Bremain -- really not what I want with my positions in the short term. (Shrugs).
TLT: Bitches ain't giving up their treasuries. Makes me wonder if we're really all that "risk off." I'd like to work that with a long-dated diagonal or a poor man's covered put, but if we get any kind of dip here, I can see TLT flirting with all time highs. TBT (the TLT inverse) may be a cheaper route to go long, but the options aren't as liquid.
Volatility: It's either (a) wait for a pop with what you've got on; or (b) load more; or (c) do both. I'm waiting for a pop with my VXX stuff, but would like to load some non-contango'd sub-12 VIX. VIX 13.5 now ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,226
  • Jun 5, 2016 2:30pm Jun 5, 2016 2:30pm
How much Reynold's Wrap does it take to make a good tin foil hat? It needs to be sturdy, something that will last thru November. I'm thinking maybe a 3-cornered job, so I will fit in at Tea Party gatherings and gun shows. Because it's obvious Wall Street will float the market thru any calamity so the Establishment candidate will win the presidency. So it's pointless to short anything except volatility. Between the tin foil and all the amalgam in my teeth, I bet I will be able to get alien stock quotes. I'm sure they're all rallying, though....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,227
  • Jun 5, 2016 3:33pm Jun 5, 2016 3:33pm
Oh, snap. Karen the Super Trader ain't so Super after all ... . https://www.thestreet.com/story/1359...c-alleges.html
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,228
  • Jun 5, 2016 3:45pm Jun 5, 2016 3:45pm
Hold on. Hold on. Hope is not lost on a Brexit "nail biter": http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...t-lead-opinium The poll indicates Brexit with a narrow margin over Bremain (43-40%, with a fair chunk in the "undecided" camp).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,229
  • Jun 5, 2016 3:46pm Jun 5, 2016 3:46pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Hold on. Hold on. Hope is not lost on a Brexit "nail biter": http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...t-lead-opinium The poll indicates Brexit with a narrow margin over Bremain (43-40%, with a fair chunk in the "undecided" camp).
Cable off 45 pips on the news ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,230
  • Jun 5, 2016 3:50pm Jun 5, 2016 3:50pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Oh, snap. Karen the Super Trader ain't so Super after all ... . https://www.thestreet.com/story/1359...c-alleges.html
oh man, this is like when they put Martha Stewart in the Slammer. But Let this be a lesson to you naked shorters.

"The success started to come undone in late 2014, when volatility in financial markets saddled Bruton's funds with paper losses of about $100 million, according to the SEC. Instead, Hope Advisors told clients that the funds had posted millions of dollars in profits, resulting in incentive fees of more than $600,000."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,231
  • Edited 4:31pm Jun 5, 2016 4:09pm | Edited 4:31pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} oh man, this is like when they put Martha Stewart in the Slammer. But Let this be a lesson to you naked shorters. "The success started to come undone in late 2014, when volatility in financial markets saddled Bruton's funds with paper losses of about $100 million, according to the SEC. Instead, Hope Advisors told clients that the funds had posted millions of dollars in profits, resulting in incentive fees of more than $600,000."
Mmmm. She "was" a short strangler. Seems to me that implied volatility would have benefitted her positions, but I assume that they are referring to "volatility" in the ordinary market sense of "oversized movement", which breached a side or two of her setups, causing her the regular headaches that most oppositional trade setups endure from time to time.

Can't believe the bitch didn't know how to work herself out of those, beyond the fact that she claimed to have "gone flat" every month, something you just cannot do without losing money, particularly if a side is beaucoup ITM ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,232
  • Jun 5, 2016 4:33pm Jun 5, 2016 4:33pm
Okay. What the hell ... . Natty catching a bid here. Up 2% on what? Not that I mind some up in natty ... . Soul sucking whore still owes me ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,233
  • Jun 5, 2016 4:37pm Jun 5, 2016 4:37pm
This is really a "really?!". How long have we been saying this, but without it coming to fruition? http://www.futuresmag.com/2016/06/03...0-vu-2007-2008 (Also, can't agree this is a 2007-08 moment; load of full-on horse shit).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,234
  • Jun 5, 2016 4:39pm Jun 5, 2016 4:39pm
sure it was the "big move" vol, pushing past some positions that maybe were oversized in the first place, then pushing again, and then again....until oh shit we done lost alot of money here....there's no guarantee you can work your way out of bad trades, especially if they be stacked up in time and magnitude against you, no matter if you're a "Super Trader" or not. Greed gets the best of anybody (position sizing) and bad luck, maybe long strings of it, is waiting for us all - which is why position sizing is so im por tant....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,235
  • Jun 5, 2016 4:42pm Jun 5, 2016 4:42pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
This is really a "really?!"
do you want me to make you a tin foil hat, too? ...maybe a big, wide-brimmed sombrero.....prolly serve well in the midwest summer sun....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,236
  • Jun 5, 2016 4:46pm Jun 5, 2016 4:46pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Okay. What the hell ... . Natty catching a bid here. Up 2% on what? Not that I mind some up in natty ... . Soul sucking whore still owes me ... .
been watching, bright bright future if you live long enough....I am in Jan '17 $10/$14 bull calls.....maybe we will see winter again....someday
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,237
  • Jun 5, 2016 4:54pm Jun 5, 2016 4:54pm
Quoting The Fool
and bad luck, maybe long strings of it, is waiting for us all - which is why position sizing is so im por tant....
speaking of which, here is I, watching the vix futures at 1700 Sunday, ain't foolin nobody....
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,238
  • Jun 5, 2016 5:00pm Jun 5, 2016 5:00pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}do you want me to make you a tin foil hat, too? ...maybe a big, wide-brimmed sombrero.....prolly serve well in the midwest summer sun....
Lol. What? My Magic Eight Ball and Lucky Monkey (shakes it briefly) ain't gonna cut it? Been working so far ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,239
  • Jun 5, 2016 5:03pm Jun 5, 2016 5:03pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Hold on. Hold on. Hope is not lost on a Brexit "nail biter": http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...t-lead-opinium The poll indicates Brexit with a narrow margin over Bremain (43-40%, with a fair chunk in the "undecided" camp).
if the polls stay tight right up to FOMC week and we don't see even a modest selloff in equities, all my tinfoil theories are confirmed.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,240
  • Jun 5, 2016 5:46pm Jun 5, 2016 5:46pm
Quoting The Fool
sure it was the "big move" vol, pushing past some positions that maybe were oversized in the first place, then pushing again, and then again....until oh shit we done lost alot of money here....there's no guarantee you can work your way out of bad trades, especially if they be stacked up in time and magnitude against you, no matter if you're a "Super Trader" or not. Greed gets the best of anybody (position sizing) and bad luck, maybe long strings of it, is waiting for us all - which is why position sizing is so im por tant....
Position sizing + max exposure ... . Either or both too big and you're in for a ginormous knee to the "heritage factory" ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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