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  • #13,201
  • Jun 2, 2016 8:51pm Jun 2, 2016 8:51pm
Quoting The Fool
I am looking at the Jul4 week, week of Jul 18, the week of the RNC National Convention in Cleveland. That might turn out to be a big brouhaha....
VXX Jul4 are new, still thin, but they'll fill you....$18/18.5 calls for 4c is 10 bag country if we get something
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,202
  • Jun 2, 2016 8:53pm Jun 2, 2016 8:53pm
Quoting The Fool
hey NT - sorry, what was your original trade?
What, the puts? They're Jun24/Jul01 $17 VXX calendar spreads.
You reap what you sow.
  • #13,203
  • Jun 2, 2016 9:03pm Jun 2, 2016 9:03pm
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} What, the puts? They're Jun24/Jul01 $17 VXX calendar spreads.
no, calls - right? If so, yeah, you could buy back your short calls and then wait - hell you could end up selling them again if we get some vol, who knows? Not sure what I would do, but if I see something has gone down to 5c or so, there's not much reason to hang on to it - it won't ever do anything better for you, regardless of what happens. Of course, if it's a hopeless situation, just let the whole thing die & expire worthless, don't waste $ buying back a dead dog
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,204
  • Jun 2, 2016 9:14pm Jun 2, 2016 9:14pm
NT, do you follow politics in the UK? What do you think the result of the "Brexit" vote will be?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,205
  • Jun 2, 2016 9:58pm Jun 2, 2016 9:58pm
Yeah, I agree about the short calls. Will probably buy those back when the market opens. The puts though... both are obviously well in the money and will need to be closed before Jun24. If volatility increases between now and the Brexit vote - which is what I thought would happen when I bought the put calendar - then I'll probably get some profit. If it drops even more then I'll lose a bit more, but not a sack full. May hang on to it for a while and see how it goes. Thanks.

Quoting The Fool
NT, do you follow politics in the UK? What do you think the result of the "Brexit" vote will be?
I watch the BBC news every day, but that's about it. It's funny and a bit disturbing watching the campaigners on both sides spinning their yarns and twisting the truth about what will happen if their side wins.
Personally I'd be surprised if the "leave" vote wins. If it looks like they might we'll probably see the big guns coming out, persuading and scaring us to stay, maybe even Juncker himself offering a better deal for the UK if they remain.
But... who really knows? Surprises can happen and I want to keep a few long VXX calls up my sleeve just in case!
You reap what you sow.
  • #13,206
  • Jun 2, 2016 10:28pm Jun 2, 2016 10:28pm
Im looking at the hourly DOW futures at the moment it looks as though its building a bull flag, price is 17824 if this continues without breaking then a extension to 17900 looks probable after NFP
  • #13,207
  • Edited 11:00pm Jun 2, 2016 10:50pm | Edited 11:00pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
Im looking at the hourly DOW futures at the moment it looks as though its building a bull flag, price is 17824 if this continues without breaking then a extension to 17900 looks probable after NFP
no bull action will surprise me, at this point. I don't ever look at the DOW and just focus on the spoos mostly, also looking at the COMP. They've come all this way hey why not take out 2,150....could get that done in an easy week now. Where else ya gonna put your money? Nowhere else promises a pig any kind of decent yield. If the Fed will follow thru now on omg all these years of saying they will normalize, the markets will rally on that and will only slow down in the face of a direct asteroid hit that is forecast to take out Manhattan, or nuclear war, or the two of those combined on a NFP day.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,208
  • Jun 3, 2016 12:11am Jun 3, 2016 12:11am
take a chance on the vix moving? weekly VXX, the skew is still 2x on the calls, so you can balance a long put against a call vert, as shown....my fear is that the market will freeze up all the way to FOMC week....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,209
  • Jun 3, 2016 8:42am Jun 3, 2016 8:42am
Teflon market buys back every single dip
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,210
  • Jun 3, 2016 9:01am Jun 3, 2016 9:01am
Quoting The Fool
Teflon market buys back every single dip
market close to giving it all back, get better for the VIX as I don't want to miss out on that long VOL
  • #13,211
  • Jun 3, 2016 10:56am Jun 3, 2016 10:56am
SPY heading for another weekly doji? Opened Tues ~ $210.50...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,212
  • Jun 3, 2016 11:45am Jun 3, 2016 11:45am
Quoting The Fool
NT, do you follow politics in the UK? What do you think the result of the "Brexit" vote will be?
UK will most likely stay in EU. Scaremongering pays off eventually.
I want to profit from the outcome lol.
  • #13,213
  • Jun 3, 2016 12:05pm Jun 3, 2016 12:05pm
new lows for the vix products, UVXY is flirting with R/S levels.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,214
  • Jun 3, 2016 12:06pm Jun 3, 2016 12:06pm
Quoting The Fool
Teflon market buys back every single dip
Hi TF.... Yep, I can't remember the last down trend day. Sad... UVXY under $10.

So, SPX is in balance for the last 5 days. Obviously overbought, BUT that is the way to get out of that condition... by just keep moving sideways. Market just shrugged off that horrible NFP, and maybe that means that it wants to go higher... at least to test ATH if not to make a new one.

In that case, I would look to buy June IWM 119/120 call spreads, currently available at 12c. OR maybe just buying a few 119 calls. OR buy the 119 calls, and then if the mofo is going higher, leg in later and selling the 120 calls. Thinking about SPX going higher from this consolidation and pulling other indices higher. /NQ is currently under falling trend line, so that could also be an indication, if it breaks it to the upside next week, then all the happy bunch is going higher.

I just pray that it doesn't fall apart in August when I am on vacation, like the last year... If you could just correct hard in July, that would be awesome... Or in fact, anytime, I don't care losing money on small bullish hedges.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #13,215
  • Jun 3, 2016 12:12pm Jun 3, 2016 12:12pm
Quoting StrayDog
if it breaks it to the upside next week, then all the happy bunch is going higher. I just pray that it doesn't fall apart in August when I am on vacation, like the last year... If you could just correct hard in July, that would be awesome... Or in fact, anytime, I don't care losing money on small bullish hedges.
last August - who saw that coming? I hope not, but it seems the US equities are hell-bent on breaking out upside in classic "stair-step" pattern.....as I have been saying, it will take something out of the ordinary to shake out the bulls...

Good to see you SD & I hope all is well....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,216
  • Jun 3, 2016 5:20pm Jun 3, 2016 5:20pm
As usual, why try to figure the market out ... . Worst NFP's since 2010 and yet, only off a smidgeon in the grand scheme of things ... . If I get it into my head that that should have been a wayyyyy bigger down move, then I start thinking directionally, which is usually not a good thing, since I suck at calling direction ... .

At least gold, Euro appear to be behaving in some kind of common sense manner -- gold up $33 on the weak data; EURUSD, 212 pips (no surprise there, though; dollar weakness -- DXY down 1.75%). However, that same dollar weakness didn't push into oil -- off a .48% to $48.78.

I assume the muted movement is because we're in a "bad news is good news" cycle (i.e., bad employment data = no June hike) -- probability went from 20.6% yesterday to 4% today (as though there was ever going to be one in June in the first instance).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,217
  • Jun 3, 2016 5:43pm Jun 3, 2016 5:43pm
But this is quite the narrow little sub-channel we've been in since 5/25 here: 20 points (in SPX) wide, plus or minus (it's basically between the .50 Fib channel line and the .618, although it's poked its head above the .618 a couple of times and then retreated back to the .50):

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The high end's currently at 214-ish, the low at 205, and it could ping pong around in here for a bit ... . (Gawd, we're back to last summer's range ... .)
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,218
  • Jun 3, 2016 5:52pm Jun 3, 2016 5:52pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
. . At least gold, Euro appear to be behaving in
'sup, zeebs? I hope you had a good week. Mine saw long vol trade craters in my accounts deepening, but there's still some time.

re: gold, I been watching it, sorry I had not been in some 2-way options trades in there....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,219
  • Jun 3, 2016 5:55pm Jun 3, 2016 5:55pm
I have bought back lots of UVXY and VXX short call legs from spreads I got in > a month ago....now I have good numbers of Jun 17 UVXY long calls as low as $15.50. VXX down to $18.....if I get a stroke of luck it could pay off in tall cotton....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,220
  • Jun 3, 2016 7:25pm Jun 3, 2016 7:25pm
Quoting The Fool
I have bought back lots of UVXY and VXX short call legs from spreads I got in > a month ago....now I have good numbers of Jun 17 UVXY long calls as low as $15.50. VXX down to $18.....if I get a stroke of luck it could pay off in tall cotton....
BREAKING bull call verts and calendars leaves a bunch of long calls with that sweet p/l upshot to the sky. Now I just need some help from fate....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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