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AUD/USD

  • #97,601
  • Jun 4, 2016 5:57am Jun 4, 2016 5:57am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} I'll die laughing at your analysis... it will be 0,65 before it goes even to 0.80. Tell me how re-balancing of oil supply helps our economy? )))
im not following this thread actively. you said that means you are an australian? you are welcome to short, dude.
  • #97,602
  • Jun 4, 2016 5:58am Jun 4, 2016 5:58am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} I'll die laughing at your analysis... it will be 0,65 before it goes even to 0.80. Tell me how re-balancing of oil supply helps our economy? )))
until the fat lady sings
  • #97,603
  • Jun 4, 2016 7:30am Jun 4, 2016 7:30am
Quoting BDardenTrade
{quote} We are 5% of the entire forex (retail traders)...large banking institutions 40%, corps 15%, small Banks 15%, Hedge Funds 25%... Central Banks...what percent are they??? They can literally utter some rumors and make the market go where they want....I feel they have 100% control whenever they choose. Still thanking the heavens I didn't trade CHF at all when the bank finally decided to abandon the 1.20 floor. Is the qoute for 95% retail traders?...or the market abroad? and I know this is not YOUR qoute. it is a general understanding...just...
I think he is referring to retail traders, so its 95% of the 5% of the fx markets that are loose.

Im not sure where you get your participate percentages from but multi national Cooperations (import/exporters) are a major player in the fx markets and only do so to minimize risk, to them it dont matter if the currency go up or down because they will always be at break even at worst. They conduct their transactions directly through banks. Central banks like the RBA (since we are on a aud thread) these days try to take a hands off approach to the market and conduct business only as required by the commonwealth government. Some of these transaction can be many millions of dollars and can have a significant effect on the market. The RBA may only intervene if the currency has become too volatile or not at the exchange rate they would like it to be. The RBA has many ways to influence the currency and one of them is to "utter" a few words .

The market is not easily manipulated like retail traders think, the market responds to supply and demand. One single cooperation or bank cannot directly effect the price of a currency. To move the AUD significantly in normal market conditions, would require a few 100 million.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,604
  • Jun 5, 2016 2:37am Jun 5, 2016 2:37am
Quoting socnau
{quote} im not following this thread actively. you said that means you are an australian? you are welcome to short, dude.
I'm always short.
  • #97,605
  • Jun 5, 2016 8:46am Jun 5, 2016 8:46am
Interesting move last week.
  • #97,606
  • Jun 5, 2016 10:26am Jun 5, 2016 10:26am
Quoting BDardenTrade
{quote} We are 5% of the entire forex (retail traders)...large banking institutions 40%, corps 15%, small Banks 15%, Hedge Funds 25%... Central Banks...what percent are they??? They can literally utter some rumors and make the market go where they want....I feel they have 100% control whenever they choose. Still thanking the heavens I didn't trade CHF at all when the bank finally decided to abandon the 1.20 floor. Is the qoute for 95% retail traders?...or the market abroad? and I know this is not YOUR qoute. it is a general understanding...just...
At the time when the Switzerland National Bank (SNB) decided to pull the plugs on the floor rate of the EURCHF we saw a massive movements that was expected as they had huge capital to back up that price. We saw many of the Forex traders loosing but who has got the maximum impact.

It w as the small time Forex brokers and market makers who went out of business and had losses which they were not able to pay out to their Liquidity Providers as well as to those who were on the right side of trades on that day
FXOpen - International True ECN Broker
  • #97,607
  • Jun 5, 2016 2:41pm Jun 5, 2016 2:41pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I think he is referring to retail traders, so its 95% of the 5% of the fx markets that are loose. Im not sure where you get your participate percentages from but multi national Cooperations (import/exporters) are a major player in the fx markets and only do so to minimize risk, to them it dont matter if the currency go up or down because they will always be at break even at worst. They conduct their transactions directly through banks. Central banks like the RBA (since we are on a aud thread) these days try to take a hands off approach...
Nice. I am learning as I go. I dont know if all. I got my percentages from wiki...not that wiki is the bible or anything. And I still cannot get a solid percentage on hedge funds. and I got a RANGE on corporations that are Hedging transactions and not speculating for profit.

I feel we are being purposely misinformed on lots of things. Even the "facts" I have I look at skeptically.

Good luck to all this week. I love reading all you guys posts!
  • #97,608
  • Jun 5, 2016 5:06pm Jun 5, 2016 5:06pm
Quoting BDardenTrade
{quote} Nice. I am learning as I go. I dont know if all. I got my percentages from wiki...not that wiki is the bible or anything. And I still cannot get a solid percentage on hedge funds. and I got a RANGE on corporations that are Hedging transactions and not speculating for profit. I feel we are being purposely misinformed on lots of things. Even the "facts" I have I look at skeptically. Good luck to all this week. I love reading all you guys posts!
I have also yet to find reliable information on the percentages. They all come from forex websites and are not accurate. The quote of 95% of retail traders loose is also false its more like 60% that loose.

I think the information is just not out there unless you are involved in the financial industry, so the info we get mostly come from brokers or web authors and they do so just to get your business.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,609
  • Jun 5, 2016 5:08pm Jun 5, 2016 5:08pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I have also yet to find reliable information on the percentages.p Theey all come from fordex websites and are not accurate. The quote of 95% of retail traders loose is also false its more like 60% that loose. I think the information is just not out there unless you are involved in the financial industry, so the info we get mostly come from brokers or web authors and they do so just to get your business.
it is right... i know a broker... and ive seen the stats, as in i know the guy who owns it, how would you know its anywhere near 60%

90/90/90

90% lose 90% within 90 days. its factual
You need an ark? I NOAH GUY
  • #97,610
  • Jun 5, 2016 6:36pm Jun 5, 2016 6:36pm
AUD @ .7330

US numbers not looking so good.
Rate hike perhaps on hold.

Locally -
Australia has been battered by eastern seaboard storms over the weekend with wide spread damage .
Insurance claims galore.

Melbourne monthly inflation data for May drops 0.2pct and that was despite a petrol rise, so economy still struggling.

AUD/NZD @ 1.0565

Finally the support gave way which sorted out the bottom pickers who tried from the long side.
Think there are many who are still long and have averaged in.
Still looks heavy.
Loads of stats out this week for both ccys.

Happy hunting
  • #97,611
  • Jun 5, 2016 6:39pm Jun 5, 2016 6:39pm
Quoting stulic
{quote} 1.0650 first then everything else past parity come summer next year.
It took over one month to get to 1.058x
  • #97,612
  • Jun 5, 2016 6:40pm Jun 5, 2016 6:40pm
Cot non-commercials are now net short so looking more to the down side. There has been shit loads of longs dumped over the last 2-3 weeks.

I think NFP will have no effect on the AUD.

Attached Image
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,613
  • Jun 5, 2016 6:42pm Jun 5, 2016 6:42pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} It took over one month to get to 1.058x
Yup but you were earning the swap points waiting for it
  • #97,614
  • Jun 5, 2016 6:55pm Jun 5, 2016 6:55pm
Quoting breezetrade
{quote} it is right... i know a broker... and ive seen the stats, as in i know the guy who owns it, how would you know its anywhere near 60% 90/90/90 90% lose 90% within 90 days. its factual
The only thing I have found is this.

It gets released quarterly I think and is only in the US as its by law the brokers there need to have there stats available.

You can take this 2 ways. It only shows profitable accounts but not the amount. Either traders are profitable for 3 months only then loose their accounts in the next 3 months and those who lost the previous month are winners in the next . Sound pretty far fetched, but its a probability. Maybe 10% are consistent and the other 30 or so rotate between winning and losing. Or there are around 30-40% that are just consistent profitable traders.

I think the latter.

http://www.financemagnates.com/forex...accounts-down/
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,615
  • Jun 6, 2016 7:26am Jun 6, 2016 7:26am
What point are people taking shorts on this?
  • #97,616
  • Jun 6, 2016 7:28am Jun 6, 2016 7:28am
Quoting galvcore
What point are people taking shorts on this?
i guess it depends if you are scalping or prefer to hold your trade for the day
it rubs the lotion on its skin
  • #97,617
  • Jun 6, 2016 8:06am Jun 6, 2016 8:06am
long until 0.7400
it rubs the lotion on its skin
  • #97,618
  • Jun 6, 2016 11:06am Jun 6, 2016 11:06am
Potentially resuming down trend off this 0.7380 top.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4 7Jun16.png Size: 36 KB
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  • #97,619
  • Jun 6, 2016 11:15am Jun 6, 2016 11:15am
Quoting skyhok
Potentially resuming down trend off this 0.7380 top. {image}
The upside potential I think is limited - I agree with your scenario and it fit perfectly (time wise) with the and interest rate decisions, remaining less than 11 hours remaining from now. It reminds me of the previous aud rate decision when aud/usd grew untill that very moment and then went down.
  • #97,620
  • Jun 6, 2016 12:11pm Jun 6, 2016 12:11pm
When I chose to ride the pullback I also felt 7350 or 7400 was time to close shop on long. Psycologically if you were short that pair from the top it makes the most sense to take profit (At least a 3rd of it) before any major headwinds. and the weight was all very anti aud and pro usd....so that is why a long made the most sense to me then...NOW...I would wait till after the rate decision to make a choice on a direction.
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