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Pharley Simple system - Get your levels right for trading S/R

  • #121
  • Jun 3, 2016 10:49pm Jun 3, 2016 10:49pm
Quoting Vlad13685
{quote} Hi Pharley! Thanks for this, it helps a lot with my understanding! Just to check, please look at this S/R you have drawn in the line below. Should the line not be drawn at the Red line? This is because the close of the next candle, closed above the close of the previous candle. Regards {image}
Somewhere I read think in terms of zones rather than one price point.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #122
  • Jun 4, 2016 1:31am Jun 4, 2016 1:31am
Quoting pharley
HI all, I just looked at NZDUSD for the last 1 week - Mon to Fri - and looked for any of these simple setups on the 1hr chart. I counted 26. Using a risk:reward of 1:1, 22 of them won and 4 lost. I may have missed a few. So what does that mean in $? Assume you risk $100 on a trade - with 1:1 you make $100 if it wins and lose the $100 if it loses. That's (22 x $100) = $2,200 wins less losses of (4 x $100) = $400. Total for the week = $1800. Ok that's all of them - if I could only take a third of them - let's say 8 trades less a couple of losers still...
​There was also a very nice entry on NZDUSD on the 240 min chart from daily support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 04 Jun 2016 - NZDUSD levels.PNG Size: 105 KB
  • #123
  • Jun 4, 2016 5:03am Jun 4, 2016 5:03am
Really nice explanations Pharley. Since I've started using this technique I've been boosting my results considerably. As you noted on the NZDUSD there are just so many nice setups regularly. Now i just have to limit myself to 4 pairs max that i choose and patiently wait for price to come to the areas of interest, so I avoid overtrading.

Keep it up!
  • #124
  • Jun 4, 2016 5:20am Jun 4, 2016 5:20am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Somewhere I read think in terms of zones rather than one price point.
Yea, I would assume that looking at zones instead of just one price point is more objective.
  • #125
  • Jun 4, 2016 6:44am Jun 4, 2016 6:44am
Quoting Sajid
{quote} Brother I don't understand what you mean exactly by Graphs? . All my trades hit the TP. Regarding EURUSD TP hitting, It was just because of NPF and luck. If it was a normal day, I was not suppose to keep my trades. Next time, I am not repeat this mistake to add positions when my last added position running in lose.
Graph = chart.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #126
  • Jun 4, 2016 6:59am Jun 4, 2016 6:59am
Quoting saruhn
{quote} Yea, I would assume that looking at zones instead of just one price point is more objective.
Objective or Subjective?
Maybe fuzzy rather than precise?

Example:
Precise would be at the open, high, low, close, midpoint, pivot, fib numbers, etc.
Fuzzy would be within N pips +/- of those levels.

Placing stop loss levels requires precision.
Entry levels not so much.
Entries require precise timing.
Get the timing right, the level will not matter, only the direction matters.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #127
  • Jun 4, 2016 5:39pm Jun 4, 2016 5:39pm
Quoting Vlad13685
{quote} Hi Pharley! Thanks for this, it helps a lot with my understanding! Just to check, please look at this S/R you have drawn in the line below. Should the line not be drawn at the Red line? This is because the close of the next candle, closed above the close of the previous candle. Regards {image}
Hi Vlad,

That's interesting! Actually you could sneak another one in there where you said.

Keep spotting them mate!

Cheers
Pharley
  • #128
  • Jun 4, 2016 5:48pm Jun 4, 2016 5:48pm
Quoting Maddin
Hi Pharley, I try to understand more of your pre-decission about which pair you are going to trade. Can you please share some of your thoughs for the upcomming week on H4 basis? I think this would help a lot. Many thanks!
Hi Maddin,

I generally don't think too much about which pair I'm going to trade - I just stick to looking at majors and quite a few of the major/minor crosses.

When I look at charts over the weekend (when I get chance), I'm looking to make sure major S/R are marked at the very least. Then as markets move in the week, looking to take trades with minor S/R areas popping up. That's with this particular method - I also am looking for other things such as daily pin bars, 50% retracements etc.

Everyone has to do their own analysis - I can point people in a direction with what to look for, how I analyse charts, but the actual effort, analysis and review has to come form the individual. Otherwise there's not much learning going on, and the learning is crucial to future success in this game.

Cheers
Pharley
  • #129
  • Jun 4, 2016 5:53pm Jun 4, 2016 5:53pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Somewhere I read think in terms of zones rather than one price point.
Hi TS, yes that's right - S/R are areas or zones. For this method I use a line. Many times it's right at the high or low of a bar, or the open or close (body) of the bar, or somewhere inbetween.

This is one of the things that's hard about trading. There is no 100% absolutely correct level to mark on charts. The "getting your levels right" really comes form screen time - by that I mean looking at charts and drawing them in, seeing what happen when price comes back to them. Did I draw the line at the right place - if not, why not. Is it because it's an "area" and not a line - most often yes that's the reason why.

Practice drawing these areas of S/R (or supply/demand) - like anything, the more you practice, the better you become.
Cheers
Pharley
  • #130
  • Jun 4, 2016 5:57pm Jun 4, 2016 5:57pm
Quoting JackAntigua
{quote} ​There was also a very nice entry on NZDUSD on the 240 min chart from daily support. {image}
Hi Jack - yes and there were a few more as well (see the others?). Some of these would be duplicates of those taken on the 1hr charts, but if chart time is an issue, go with the 4hr charts instead or daily.

Cheers
  • #131
  • Jun 4, 2016 5:59pm Jun 4, 2016 5:59pm
Quoting saruhn
Really nice explanations Pharley. Since I've started using this technique I've been boosting my results considerably. As you noted on the NZDUSD there are just so many nice setups regularly. Now i just have to limit myself to 4 pairs max that i choose and patiently wait for price to come to the areas of interest, so I avoid overtrading. Keep it up!
Terrific Saruhn! Good to see it's working.

Could you let us know what pairs you're looking at? Yes the NZDUSD is a good one, probably AUDUSD as well, plus the AUD crosses - perhaps euraud and gbpaud.

Anyone got some good ideas on pairs you can share?

Good idea to keep it to 4 pairs - nice on screen and it doesn't become confusing trying to look at 20+ pairs!

Cheers
Pharley
  • #132
  • Jun 4, 2016 9:13pm Jun 4, 2016 9:13pm
I've been having a crack at this in a simulator over the weekend. I can see the potential, and i can see what people are talking about when they're posting the charts they're posting. Just can't seem to quite get it in "real" time. Today I've been sticking to trying to put lines only on the most recent swing, but still not a great deal of success.
  • #133
  • Jun 4, 2016 10:29pm Jun 4, 2016 10:29pm
Quoting Rub
I've been having a crack at this in a simulator over the weekend. I can see the potential, and i can see what people are talking about when they're posting the charts they're posting. Just can't seem to quite get it in "real" time. Today I've been sticking to trying to put lines only on the most recent swing, but still not a great deal of success.
Where are you trading?
In the middle of the chart?
Near the high or low?
Both?

What direction are you trading?
Towards the open?
Away from the open?
Both?

Could you narrow your choices to one of each?
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #134
  • Jun 5, 2016 3:52am Jun 5, 2016 3:52am
Quoting Rub
I've been having a crack at this in a simulator over the weekend. I can see the potential, and i can see what people are talking about when they're posting the charts they're posting. Just can't seem to quite get it in "real" time. Today I've been sticking to trying to put lines only on the most recent swing, but still not a great deal of success.

Hi Rub,

Yes it can be a tricky spotting anything in real time. Here's something I look for that may help.

See pic below - it's a 1 hour, but if you look at that chart on the daily you will see gbpaud has come away from a resistance area and is falling. Now when to enter? Well I know from the daily and 4 hr charts that it's in a bear trend. Looking at the picture we have a nice retrace upwards, then price reverses. Look at the bear bar I marked and drew a minor support at the bottom of it. Not long after price makes a new low and closes below there - that's my signal that says - price has now returned to the bear market after the retrace. Then I place a short limit order just before the minor support (now resistance) - and wait.

Look to the price action to the left to decide where to take profit.

Hope that helps

Cheers
Pharley
  • #135
  • Jun 5, 2016 4:53am Jun 5, 2016 4:53am
Quoting pharley
{quote} Terrific Saruhn! Good to see it's working. Could you let us know what pairs you're looking at? Yes the NZDUSD is a good one, probably AUDUSD as well, plus the AUD crosses - perhaps euraud and gbpaud. Anyone got some good ideas on pairs you can share? Good idea to keep it to 4 pairs - nice on screen and it doesn't become confusing trying to look at 20+ pairs! Cheers Pharley
Haven't decided which pairs yet, however i just want to limit myself so i dont get lost in 20+ pairs. I sometimes enter a bunch of different pairs and when the P/L starts to fluctuate i get lost. I make mistakes that I wouldn't normally make due to over burdening myself.

Last week i was making a profit however i was entering trades too late. The red arrows on the USDJPY shows where i should've entered.
230 pips usdjpy 2 trades;
and 160 on gbpaud, however i dont really know if the gbpaud entry qualifies as this technique. But it was a really clear cut trade with no stress .
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDmH4.png Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYmH1.png Size: 62 KB
  • #136
  • Jun 5, 2016 5:18am Jun 5, 2016 5:18am
Quoting saruhn
{quote} Haven't decided which pairs yet, however i just want to limit myself so i dont get lost in 20+ pairs. I sometimes enter a bunch of different pairs and when the P/L starts to fluctuate i get lost. I make mistakes that I wouldn't normally make due to over burdening myself. Last week i was making a profit however i was entering trades too late. The red arrows on the USDJPY shows where i should've entered. 230 pips usdjpy 2 trades; and 160 on gbpaud, however i dont really know if the gbpaud entry qualifies as this technique. But it was a really...
amazing trade..... please explain it with some more details of chart..
Success is a Journey Not a Destination....... kind regards ramzam
  • #137
  • Jun 5, 2016 6:42am Jun 5, 2016 6:42am
Hi

What is the edge here, the trend i think and we find it by a 50sma ?

Best regards
  • #138
  • Jun 5, 2016 7:11am Jun 5, 2016 7:11am
Quoting ramzam
{quote} amazing trade..... please explain it with some more details of chart..
I just "try" to follow Pharley's examples. It usually is a lot sloppier in real time tho.

Check out his screenshots and study it. I did the same, no magic.
  • #139
  • Jun 5, 2016 7:16am Jun 5, 2016 7:16am
Quoting saruhn
{quote} I just "try" to follow Pharley's examples. It usually is a lot sloppier in real time tho. Check out his screenshots and study it. I did the same, no magic.
Practice makes a man perfect. In real time, The key is to not hurry, not panic, stick to the plan. Ultimately, you will be paid most of the times.


Most of the times, we make the mistake of chasing price. We thought that we will miss the move so we enter. That's not right. Price don't move straight. It moves like a spiral. So you will get many execution opportunities. No Need to hurry.
Forex; the game of movements not the game of candles.
  • #140
  • Jun 5, 2016 11:58am Jun 5, 2016 11:58am
Quoting Sajid
{quote} Practice makes a man perfect. In real time, The key is to not hurry, not panic, stick to the plan. Ultimately, you will be paid most of the times. Most of the times, we make the mistake of chasing price. We thought that we will miss the move so we enter. That's not right. Price don't move straight. It moves like a spiral. So you will get many execution opportunities. No Need to hurry.

Agreed, just by having that type of trading approach you will be able to reduce the number of impulsive, hurried up entries that usually turn out bad. Being patient and letting price come to you instead of chasing it will also reduce the level of stress throughout trading which will for sure have a positive impact on the P/L.
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