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The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,821
  • Jun 3, 2016 4:47pm Jun 3, 2016 4:47pm
I got some questions right. Maybe we need to do a table on right and wrong questions for me and when should I be asking them. Lol. Doubt my W% would be very high. But I do know my limits w your patience w me. Lol.
My questions are answers from your post. I can re post them if you would like or you could skim my past few posts to see them. Thanks
  • #140,822
  • Jun 3, 2016 4:48pm Jun 3, 2016 4:48pm
go for it one by one ..lets see how it goes..

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,823
  • Jun 3, 2016 4:55pm Jun 3, 2016 4:55pm
Let me answer your last questions! Currently, we are in Outlook Neutral Short term. Therefore, in Neutral you trade the extremes to target (not to pip either) not to middle. Do not trade in the middle! Moreover, price is in the middle currently. If we were in a Outlook Sell;then, this would be perfect place to get in.
  • #140,824
  • Jun 3, 2016 4:58pm Jun 3, 2016 4:58pm
Now for your questions:

The other 70% of the time is key to be in synch with the Current Swing (which is NOT 1 CANDLE) but sadly its one of the areas less discussed here and the one with the most problems in the TA tools you can see around.

Regarding the exercise and last M close. We have a very bearish candle by candle signal. We don't have absolutely nothing in play for the macro direction. Now can you zoom in to the W chart not below and:

1. Spot where the last 3 waves in that range (2015 - today) are?
1st WAVE: .0451 to .171X
2nd WAVE: .171X to .0538
3rd Wave: .0538 to .161X
4th Wave: .161X to ????

2. Can you spot 'after the fact of course) the general area where did bulls/bears took over in the chart in each wave?

BEARS took over around the .148X area
BULLS took over at .053X area

3. Can you spot what happened when those areas get broken back to the opposite direction (when 'current' direction start, extends and ends) ?

The Market reversed..........and I see .108X being a big level for BULLS and BEARS. And,.121X as a BATTLE GROUND for BOTH and usually below this level BEARS take control!

Okay, that's my take on things and ready to be scolded or praised (not likely). But, perhaps I will have learned something in all of this. Thanks sisse!
  • #140,825
  • Jun 3, 2016 5:00pm Jun 3, 2016 5:00pm
Quoting IMARICH1
If we were in a Outlook Sell;then, this would be perfect place to get in.
Well it will be an interesting area to look around. However as you VERY VERY VERY well know from the last few discussions I wouldn't even bother looking for a trade on right now, on a Friday against the whole financial word in a train at full speed with the worst report in 7 years ... remember iteration 4 and the few discussion before

Maybe a interesting area to have a look, not even remotely interested to consider trading today ..

sisse

PS: Pay attention that the best call today was going long as we were in neutral at the extreme ....
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,826
  • Jun 3, 2016 5:04pm Jun 3, 2016 5:04pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Now for your questions: The other 70% of the time is key to be in synch with the Current Swing (which is NOT 1 CANDLE) but sadly its one of the areas less discussed here and the one with the most problems in the TA tools you can see around. Regarding the exercise and last M close. We have a very bearish candle by candle signal. We don't have absolutely nothing in play for the macro direction. Now can you zoom in to the W chart not below and: 1. Spot where the last 3 waves in that range (2015 - today) are? 1st WAVE: .0451 to .171X 2nd WAVE: .171X...
Do something quickly so its easier to mark up and better for you to understand. Plot your chart in weekly with only the following:

  1. Your current range and flip line on this mid term chart.

Avoid plotting any indicators or anything else you use for trading. We want to focus in price.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,827
  • Jun 3, 2016 5:21pm Jun 3, 2016 5:21pm
Sisse would you mind checking this one to let me know if I was looking in the right direction on your third ques.?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post8959505
  • #140,828
  • Jun 3, 2016 5:24pm Jun 3, 2016 5:24pm
Yes, you are right about the trade to take was Long. In one of my post I clearly stated my error as I thought we were in Outlook Sell Short term. You changed Outlook in Mid Term to Sell. I wasn't focused. My fault and I lost on the trade I Knew how to trade since we were at an extreme and could have faded it. But, I was excited to know why it failed and I knew was possible to fail.

Lastly, I would not even think of taking a trade now with NFP major flop, Friday and a Sunday with nothing there and no major news really until mid week. I was stating this a spot to look at if TIMING was right. 😉
  • #140,829
  • Edited 5:51pm Jun 3, 2016 5:33pm | Edited 5:51pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1. What is the current outlook and how (not where, not when) you trade that outlook? 2. Can you spot the flip? I hope by now this concept of mapping a trade is very clear. {image}
1) Neutral. entries are at the extremes toward the flip.
2) The approx.mid point between your two extremes on that chart is at 1.134x is that the way you determine a flip area?
I hope by now this concept of mapping a trade is very clear. Well, I'm honestly a little in the dark about how you are finding the levels (extremes, flip) so while I see them on your chart Im not able to find them in real time trading. It's probably a lot simpler and more intuitive than I think because Ive been looking for exact levels so long its hard to break the habit. Is it as simple as waiting for the direction of pa to reverse significantly, then go back and throw some lines in the general area of the reversal, get the approximate midpoint between that one and the last one and that makes two extremes and a flip?
  • #140,830
  • Jun 3, 2016 5:46pm Jun 3, 2016 5:46pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote}. 2) The mid point between your two extremes on that chart is at 1.1343 is that the way you determine a flip level?
NO. The flip is not the middle point of anything. Try to look back on some of the discussion about price candle by candle and before. There is lot of info in this thread. The flip is based on Price action only. No mids / magic lines no nothing...

Quote
Well, I'm honestly a little in the dark about how you are choosing the levels (extremes, flip) so while I see them on the chart Im not able to find them in real time trading.

hmm I understand. It will take some time because you need to leave behind a lot the TA baggage to start seeing trading form a different angle. A long journey, not for everyone, nothing in trading is.

Start reading some of the backpost in the thread. I know can be messy and hard. Try to track for a few weeks the conversations in the thread until you star forming your own view of the market from a different angle. It will feel very hard and random and soon it wont .... It can click on something very small or in a big discussion, it may not. You may have some Eureka moment like some fellow traders here, or simply you can just pass out of boredom. Point its, its going to be a very hard path.

I am hacking @Pharm0r profile picture as I think its very relevant:

Attached Image


As first hint to start. Don't forget that there is a strong FA component in all this and from the TA side there is nothing magical or hiding system to anything , it is 99% pure price action and Price action for trading can be summarise in 1 line:

--> Support/Resistance. Break/Fade. Retrace/Pullback/Continuation. Extension/ cluster fuck. Volatility expansion/ compresion .

There is nothing much beyond that ...

Keep tracking these after hours conversation and more importantly keep being active chatting and discussing during key times as thats the only way to make your own path and understand most of the levels we are talking about and why ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,831
  • Jun 3, 2016 5:49pm Jun 3, 2016 5:49pm
Is the current flip 1.128x?..due to rate differential level...thought it would reach that level Monday for Yellen.
  • #140,832
  • Jun 3, 2016 6:01pm Jun 3, 2016 6:01pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} NO. The flip is not the middle point of anything. Try to look back on some of the discussion about price candle by candle and before. There is lot of info in this thread. The flip is based on Price action only. No mids / magic lines no nothing... {quote} hmm I understand. It will take some time because you need to leave behind a lot the TA baggage to start seeing trading form a different angle. A long journey, not for everyone, nothing in trading is. Start reading some of the backpost in the thread. I know can be messy and hard. Try to track...
Thanks. Will do. Not afraid of homework. As always i appreciate the reply.Have a good weekend all.
  • #140,833
  • Jun 3, 2016 6:07pm Jun 3, 2016 6:07pm
Here is my take on it. At first I had my range from our current Low (.109X) to Current High (.161X); but, that would be more for a Daily Chart or Short Term range as opposed to MID Term range. I corrected it and here is what I came up with.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU1.jpg Size: 71 KB
  • #140,834
  • Jun 3, 2016 6:12pm Jun 3, 2016 6:12pm
Quoting PAStalker
Is the current flip 1.128x?..due to rate differential level...thought it would reach that level Monday for Yellen.
You are getting into a better path. 1,128x was FA R on rate differentials until DEC hike indeed. However that level is long gone and not really the flip. Hint and to close the day. Try to mark when expectations swap in Dollar via FED (3 times already) and is now cleanly spotted in charts ...you are on the right track FA wise but too low TAwise ... try higher ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,835
  • Jun 3, 2016 6:18pm Jun 3, 2016 6:18pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Here is my take on it. At first I had my range from our current Low (.109X) to Current High (.161X); but, that would be more for a Daily Chart or Short Term range as opposed to MID Term range. I corrected it and here is what I came up with. {image}
Its a tradable map but not what I have in mind. 1.108x is definitely key FA level on rate differentials. Thats a harder level to spot chart wise and we haven't talk about FA levels much in the thread. Start with the basic TA map first. Final tip for today:

Price action for trading can be summarise in 1 line:

--> Support/Resistance. Break/Fade. Retrace/Pullback/Continuation. Extension/ cluster fuck. Volatility expansion/ compresion .

Try to find the flip. The answer is in one of those... Practice with the 9 iterations with the after the fact chart we have and then try to make your own for the mid term chart.

As I mention before, the exact levels are a bit irrelevant (although you need to be on the ballpark in the area and flow) the key point is in mapping the direction on that mid term chart and recognising when and why change happens ....

GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,836
  • Jun 3, 2016 6:22pm Jun 3, 2016 6:22pm
My 2nd attempt.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU1.jpg Size: 74 KB
  • #140,837
  • Jun 3, 2016 6:29pm Jun 3, 2016 6:29pm
Quoting IMARICH1
My 2nd attempt....... {image}
Better but not yet there ...

Let me share with you my long term chart outlook that I posted in this same thread. It hasn't changed neither needed to be update since I called the reversal back in 2011...maybe those old charts will trigger something .... I prolly have barely changed a thing or two TA wise since then ...but thats the same chart I am trading long term ...

Quoting sisse
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2013 On the FA side:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Quarterly02042013.png Size: 30 KB


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,838
  • Jun 3, 2016 6:41pm Jun 3, 2016 6:41pm
Sorry to be a disappointment but I only see a few things.

1. It appears this chart looks similar to the one we have been trading since Jan 2015 with the HL and LH on two extreme moves to the .17XX and more recently the .16XX

2. It appears .17XX could be a FLIP area as on your LONG TERM MAP that was an area of SUPPORT/EXTREME.

3. If this current PA is mimicking the 2013 chart then price will try once more a shot at highs only to be defeated and the big move down. But, FA things have to align in the right manor such as Rate Hike and Brexit and ect....
  • #140,839
  • Jun 4, 2016 1:49am Jun 4, 2016 1:49am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Better but not yet there ... Let me share with you my long term chart outlook that I posted in this same thread. It hasn't changed neither needed to be update since I called the reversal back in 2011...maybe those old charts will trigger something .... I prolly have barely changed a thing or two TA wise since then ...but thats the same chart I am trading long term ... {quote} {image} sisse
Hi Sisse,
Are we basically try to test your yearly support around 1.18xx as resistance since March 2015? Thanks
  • #140,840
  • Jun 4, 2016 3:21am Jun 4, 2016 3:21am
Quoting IMARICH1
Sorry to be a disappointment but I only see a few things. 1. It appears this chart looks similar to the one we have been trading since Jan 2015 with the HL and LH on two extreme moves to the .17XX and more recently the .16XX 2. It appears .17XX could be a FLIP area as on your LONG TERM MAP that was an area of SUPPORT/EXTREME. 3. If this current PA is mimicking the 2013 chart then price will try once more a shot at highs only to be defeated and the big move down. But, FA things have to align in the right manor such as Rate Hike and Brexit and ect....
1.17 is not a flip area any more. It will rather trigger lot of buy stops and we will hit 1.20. After today's action in the euro you might have got a clue. Imagine if euro hits 1.15 on monday on dovish yellen. dollar is dead
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