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The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,801
  • Jun 3, 2016 9:24am Jun 3, 2016 9:24am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well it is a rather very bad report. I will put it on the edge of a game changer. A soft push from risk (Brexit) can definitely trigger a WTF moment and the major correction we have been waiting since last month. We will need to really track the next round of macro numbers as expectations on the US economy are not aligned to a crisis sell-off.
The ^VIX slowly trying to wake up & looks like it will maybe even erase the massive 10% loss it was dealt just yesterday. Outlier NFP is one dose of uncertainty the bears need to get out of that sick bed, but it ain't the whole cure. Will need more therapy, a steady program of conflicting pronouncements from the FedHeads, almost daily, confusing Brexit poll results, etc.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,802
  • Jun 3, 2016 9:24am Jun 3, 2016 9:24am
chester123,

Hope you are doing well! I always enjoy your posts and questions! I have the same MID TERM MAP. The only thing I have different is FLIP. I have a FLIP at .108X/.105X. However, FLIP at .097X is FA and TA and probably better area. Its the SHORT TERM MAP that I struggle with in Short term waves. Hoping sisse answers my questions he asked a while back.
  • #140,803
  • Jun 3, 2016 10:30am Jun 3, 2016 10:30am
Strong session in the US as widely expected. Europe going home with US equities barely holding 2090x on a first very strong attack but still holding at the end.

We are honestly hanging on a very thin thread.... Losing the floor can and will set in motion a domino of profit taking that can extend to the risk play as the UK polls keeps showing voters are flirting to press the self destruct button and trigger a wide spread recession in Europe ...

Lots of noise in the street from real money starting to run to cash for the summer ... @FOOL we may be witnessing the start of the 'sell in may' ... all eyes on 2090.xx for the W close...

sisse

Quoting IMARICH1
...sisse, If you get time today, I did try and answer your questions and would like to learn some more today. NFP has killed my hopes again of the SHORT term and MID TERM aligning this month.
I will have time today in a a few, I am closing shop early and will hang around ...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,804
  • Jun 3, 2016 10:32am Jun 3, 2016 10:32am
Sounds great! Hopefully you can re-read a few of my posts and get into my thinking or not thinking! Thanks!

BTW: My .134X was hit that I talked about in my past posts. Now, this is an area I would SHORT if OUTLOOK SHORT TERM was SELL.
  • #140,805
  • Jun 3, 2016 11:42am Jun 3, 2016 11:42am
Bastards like usual in these levels (I hope people are not surprise about this anymore after 9 iterations) stall micro pippets away to clear the call target but in all fairness with the last 2 iterations: I will apply 'don't be a 'dick for a tick rule' and give the clear with the test 1.13498 (je je je ) to manosk chester123 Vorex. Very nicely done, all yours no discussion and superb and easy ride.

sisse


Should I stay or should I go? ..
Market has spoken and the answer was you should have gone and without hesitation as soon as the massive headline hit the wires....Standing table coming right after.

Quoting sisse
... ++++ Quick Call 9 (First Update) ++++ Should I stay or should I go? ... Currently Euro is trading 1.130x (elapsed time 0 days 1 hour) -...

++++ Quick Call 9 (Final Update) ++++

Should I stay or should I go? ...

Currently Euro is trading 1.340x (Total time 3 hours)



-> LMT BUY 1.115x [check] -> TP1 => 1.125x [check] | TP1 => 1.135x [check] | STP => 1.105x | max r:r -=> 4:1

manosk

chester123

Vorex


No touch (till next W close) | 1.125x or 1.105x | max r:r -=> 4:1


-> LMT SELL 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.105x | TP1 => 1.095x | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> 4:1

nutts

IMARICH1

primejarvis

Fadhl

Earleone

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,806
  • Jun 3, 2016 11:48am Jun 3, 2016 11:48am
Quoting sisse
... @FOOL we may be witnessing the start of the 'sell in may' ... all eyes on 2090.xx for the W close... sisse
tough call, with every single dip immediately bought back for months, the ^VIX looking to crater, etc etc - all the market forces are baked in since a long time ago - the Fed waffles like it always has, the Brexit polls don't mean a thing, etc - just stand back and let equities do what they do - get bought. Only some exogenous event(s) can shake the system, and that's an impossible call to make. My approach now is just always have something on to benefit from the big downside move - not making money on it .....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,807
  • Jun 3, 2016 11:54am Jun 3, 2016 11:54am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}tough call, with every single dip immediately bought back for months, the ^VIX looking to crater, etc etc - all the market forces are baked in since a long time ago - the Fed waffles like it always has, the Brexit polls don't mean a thing, etc - just stand back and let equities do what they do - get bought. Only some exogenous event(s) can shake the system, and that's an impossible call to make. My approach now is just always have something on to benefit from the big downside move - not making money on it .....
I disagree with you this time. Real money is starting to clear for the summer right now. There is way too many uncertainty factors in the picture for the next 8 weeks in play and this massive NFP wont be taken lightly.

They wont(can't) selloff in a rush as the boat is loaded so we are witnessing the slow deleveraging flow of major hands. I am expecting they will raise bidding very soon as soon as they finishing clearing and rebalancing stock portfolios to cash.

We'll see in a few.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,808
  • Jun 3, 2016 12:09pm Jun 3, 2016 12:09pm
well, I hope you are right. All my best trades are set up for a volatility harvest in June/July, just hedged to survive or b/e maybe in a continuing rally. A typical heavy risk-off ^vix move to near 30 in the next month or two will make me smile.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,809
  • Jun 3, 2016 12:24pm Jun 3, 2016 12:24pm
Quoting sisse
For those tracking CAD for a swing, watch-out CAD crashing at the 1.32xx handle in the upcoming sessions to mark the High of this Q and year and more importantly for a super tradable sharp mid and long term swing to 1.22xx...
A bit on the side of the headlines, for those in the CAD trade. Watch-out OIL losing 48.4x for the energies close as CAD is sitting in imminent break down 1.296x that will unlock the momentum leg on the swing. We will have both dollar and oil aligned one more time in the short term ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,810
  • Jun 3, 2016 1:00pm Jun 3, 2016 1:00pm
watch the spoos finish green. If "smart money" is raising cash they might have a hole in their pocket, dumb money picks it up & buys more stawks....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,811
  • Jun 3, 2016 1:11pm Jun 3, 2016 1:11pm
Quoting The Fool
watch the spoos finish green. If "smart money" is raising cash they might have a hole in their pocket, dumb money picks it up & buys more stawks....
why are you saying that?

We are 10 points down from the day and week, this a proper move, it wont happen in one session, its lunch time and to be honest i wont be surprise AT ALL if we close the week around 207x. Real money will finish positioning at the closing range if it they take decisive action today...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,812
  • Jun 3, 2016 1:27pm Jun 3, 2016 1:27pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Sounds great! Hopefully you can re-read a few of my posts and get into my thinking or not thinking! Thanks! BTW: My .134X was hit that I talked about in my past posts. Now, this is an area I would SHORT if OUTLOOK SHORT TERM was SELL.
Ok lets opens this, @IMARICH1 or anyone else who has been asking questions or want to ask question, right now is a good time so feel free to jump in on the discussion.

--> Lets start from the standing table update. We are 1 iteration away to complete the 10 iterations i had plan for this and I think one of the key points I wanted to show you and others are pretty much clear by now.

I know you are focus very much in the technicalities of the process but try to understand what we have been REALLY doing beyond the trigger here or there.


+++Table update after 9 iterations (only traders in the money shown) +++


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Chester took the lead with a flawless call today but I want ask you (or anybody interested around):

1. What it really comes to your mind about this table?
2. Is there any particular information in the data that can be useful for trading?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,813
  • Jun 3, 2016 1:53pm Jun 3, 2016 1:53pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} why are you saying that? We are 10 points down from the day and week, this a proper move, it wont happen in one session, its lunch time and to be honest i wont be surprise AT ALL if we close the week around 207x. Real money will finish positioning at the closing range if it they take decisive action today... sisse
every single dip has been bought back, it's been roughly a sideways market for >2 years. I don't have any faith that the things that are assumed to catalyze a sell-off really carry that much weight anymore: a rate hike in June, July, ever? Even if this happens, it's a tiny ffr hike, the Fed is uber-dovish, and will move at a glacial rate with any normalization process. Meanwhile, every other CB is jetting capital into the markets. Brexit? nobody believes it will happen, apparently. The spoos is down < 0.2% now and it looks like we will print a little green doji for the week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,814
  • Edited 3:51pm Jun 3, 2016 2:27pm | Edited 3:51pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} : 1. What it really comes to your mind about this table? 2. Is there any particular information in the data that can be useful for trading? sisse
Iterations 5 and 7 were the best rr iterations to trade? Sounds like the wrong answer to that question. Perhaps you are just looking for the money management pattern it shows comparing rr ratio to win rate. But I am curious if the much greater returns traders had with those two iterations were related to where (when) we were in the swing, or moreover how the stops, entry, tp related to where (when) we were.
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  • #140,815
  • Jun 3, 2016 2:59pm Jun 3, 2016 2:59pm
1. What it really comes to your mind about this table?

It lets you see a visual of your trading and outcomes. Are you trading too often and are your losers taking more than your winners.

2. Is there any particular information in the data that can be useful for trading?

1. Capital management/Risk Management can still make you a winner even with losers. For example, I am 4 for 4 and one Wash; yet, I still profited $340 with a 44% Winning trading percentage and am in second place. Further PAStalker is 1 for 3 and still made $40 and his winning percentage was 25%.

2. This clearly shows with the right PLAN and Capital Management you can be successful even with more losers than winners.

3. I noticed there were never any losses greater than $100; yet, winners were over $100 at times.

4. Taking a trade with a higher R/R 1:3 can lead to more profit with same risk as a R/R of 1:1

Still wanting you to look at the answers to the questions you posted a couple days ago too if you can! Thanks
  • #140,816
  • Jun 3, 2016 3:33pm Jun 3, 2016 3:33pm
Sisse,

Can you talk a little about your position management?
  • #140,817
  • Jun 3, 2016 4:14pm Jun 3, 2016 4:14pm
Quoting IMARICH1
1. What it really comes to your mind about this table? It lets you see a visual of your trading and outcomes. Are you trading too often and are your losers taking more than your winners. ..s
Exactly.

When we first started chatting one of the first thing I noticed (from you and many others) is that you had a machine gun approach.

I just handcuff you with the iterations to trade as little as possible in the last 9 weeks (9 iterations in total) to force you to get in synch with the market... look at the results even with not the most exciting W%.

--> Getting in synch with the market is not necessarily being right all the time. It just means. KNOW when to trade. You can see all the iterations except a couple of them at the begging that I 'forced' iteration in the middle of the range for the sake of the argument, were in very good synch on when to look for movers.

--> The most important conclusion from that table is as you well spotted: BASIC Money Management.

You and most of the others at the top have a rather average W% but still have a positive return !!!. Of course you need to know what you are doing but if you just make this simple but powerful concept part of you trading plan you will pass to whole new level in trading.

My point is. This is the ONLY way to consistency. Sure we can talk about the technicalities but believe the money is not there as you can clearly see from the results in the table. To wrap up if you really get this point the next set of problems are relatively easier to solve as you are only looking for solutions to impureove your W % and reduce a couple of bad traders but never to try to be right all the time ...

--> Now we can go to your other questions.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,818
  • Jun 3, 2016 4:21pm Jun 3, 2016 4:21pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}every single dip has been bought back, it's been roughly a sideways market for >2 years. ...
US equities barely held but held at the end (but Dollar didn't) and they look exhausted at the highs ...if todays flows is what I think it is ...we'll see very soon but by experience this doesn't look good at all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,819
  • Jun 3, 2016 4:32pm Jun 3, 2016 4:32pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} US equities barely held but held at the end (but Dollar didn't) and they look exhausted at the highs ...if todays flows is what I think it is ...we'll see very soon but by experience this doesn't look good at all... sisse
looks like bull flagging to me....^VIX products (VIX, VXX, UVXY, etc) crashed to new lows near the close....there's no fear. I hope you're right, though sisse.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,820
  • Edited 4:56pm Jun 3, 2016 4:45pm | Edited 4:56pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Iterations 5 and 7 were the best rr iterations to trade? Sounds like the wrong answer to that question. Perhaps you are just looking for the money management pattern it shows comparing rr ratio to win rate. But I am curious if the much greater returns traders had with those two iterations were related to where (when) we were in the swing, or moreover how the stops, entry, tp related to where (when) we were. {image}
Well thats is the second point I wanted to wrap up today.

I made these iterations also to try to explain how to visualise direction and how to have a map on it to trade. If you go back to the posts a few weeks ago the first point i made is that Macro direction should be defined in a higher TF. However some of you has misinterpreted the fact that we are using a Daily chart as the way to define direction in a swing.

The point of the exercise was to make a map, a route, a trading path that you can swing with the ebb and flows in the short term and have better results (w%), less risk (and drawdown) and more efficient use of the capital.

The random chart we have been using for this was a guideline so you can make your own in the TF above or in whatever charts you trade. Whatever the case, The key points are:

--> Pay attention that in a short term chart like this we only changed direction 3 times in 9 weeks!!!!.
--> and more importantly and for the next open question. Pay attention when and why outlook are taking place?
-->and for the 9th time in 9th week this repetition that must be already fully digested for those following since April:

  1. An outlook just define the path of least resistance.
  2. In buy or sell, you trade inside and out with momentum on the extremes
  3. In neutral, you can trade both sides from the outside avoiding the middle and fading the extremes
  4. The extremes, middle, flip are not meant to be traded to tick it meant to be areas of risk where you take your entries. Otherwise there wont be any point discussing it. Moreover, it's actually irrelevant the exact levels for trading. Why? Because if you 'are' in the right direction ANYTHING (indicators, magic lines, tossing a coin or the alignment of the stars) will work more or less fine!!!!...

--> I am going to wrap it up with the update of the same chart we have been talking during this 9 weeks to show that charts BARELY change (which is one of the other areas some struggle in the exercise as they keep updating charts/lines/etc every second bar) and leave open a couple of extra questions:

1. What is the current outlook and how (not where, not when) you trade that outlook?
2. Can you spot the flip?

I hope by now this concept of mapping a trade is very clear. Like always this concept is meant to be digested and make it yours in your own terms and trading style otherwise the whole exercise is pointless ....

sisse

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