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The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,781
  • Jun 3, 2016 7:26am Jun 3, 2016 7:26am

TABLE WILL CLOSE 1 sec before NFP


This iteration is a live trading set variation with a proper R:R and simple trailing on first target. It's titled: Should I stay or should I go? ...

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.114x++++


-> LMT BUY 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.125x | TP1 => 1.135x | STP => 1.105x | max r:r -=> 4:1

manosk

chester123

Vorex


No touch (till next W close) | 1.125x or 1.105x | max r:r -=> 4:1


-> LMT SELL 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.105x | TP1 => 1.095x | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> 4:1

nutts

IMARICH1

primejarvis

Fadhl

Earleone

mayafx

Red Pirate


Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,782
  • Jun 3, 2016 7:26am Jun 3, 2016 7:26am
Quoting sisse
Time is limited today ...come on jump in SECOND CALL ----LAST CALL IN This iteration is a live trading set variation with a proper R:R and simple trailing on first target. It's titled: Should I stay or should I go? ... ++++Currently Euro is trading 1.114x++++ -> LMT BUY 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.125x | TP1 => 1.135x | STP => 1.105x | max r:r -=> 4:1 manosk chester123 Vorex No touch (till next W close) | 1.125x...
i am still on the sell side
regadrs
  • #140,783
  • Jun 3, 2016 7:27am Jun 3, 2016 7:27am
....here we go for another NFP.

--> On the fundaments side:

Very important NFP expected for two fronts.

  1. After the flop on last report another flop will trigger some alerts about the weakening of the US employment market while a solid reports with a revision will allow us to get back on track.
  2. more importantly for this month for hikes. A overshoot/good revision will pretty much confirm HIKES in June or July triggering RMT (Rate mode trading) across the board.
  3. Expecting inline with expectations. However only a major overshoot will trigger June hikes as FED will prolly wait for the Risk event to pass (UK).

On the TA side:

  1. Nothing really new across the board. A tick above 211x highs unlock exhaustion leg on US equities while as long as 2090.x holds there is nothing to see to the other side.
  2. On the Dollar side. 96.3x is naked with inline better NFP while a flop will put us in a quick retrace 94.4x till the FED.

For the actual flows (euro only):

  1. There is nothing new as the play comes from yesterday ECB. Inline or overshoots to complete the test 1.108x a tick below unlock heavy momentum to the 1.09xx handle and the same trades that we carry from above. To the other side with a flop, is basically nothing really tradable at these levels (poor r:r) and will unlock a direct short squeeze as far as 1.128x and will trigger cover time for those carrying shorts...

GL all trading, planning to trade or simple tracking a VERY KEY report.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,784
  • Jun 3, 2016 7:29am Jun 3, 2016 7:29am

-> LMT SELL 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.105x | TP1 => 1.095x | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> 4:1

  • #140,785
  • Jun 3, 2016 7:30am Jun 3, 2016 7:30am
LOL .....WOW Massive FLOP !!!
Clearing all here ...
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,786
  • Jun 3, 2016 7:33am Jun 3, 2016 7:33am
simply wow, never seen such flop. but its strange unemployment ticked down by 0,2 even though the participation rate did not decrease much.
  • #140,787
  • Jun 3, 2016 7:35am Jun 3, 2016 7:35am
Important update from NFP:

Changing short term outlook in US equities from neutral to sell.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,788
  • Jun 3, 2016 7:36am Jun 3, 2016 7:36am
Second update:

--> Changing short term outlook in Gold from Sell to Buy.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,789
  • Jun 3, 2016 7:37am Jun 3, 2016 7:37am
Third very important update:

--> Changing mid term outlook in OIL from neutral to SELL.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,790
  • Jun 3, 2016 7:38am Jun 3, 2016 7:38am
so basically Yellen's and the rest of the Fed governors speeches and comments go down the drain?
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #140,791
  • Jun 3, 2016 7:43am Jun 3, 2016 7:43am
Quoting sisse
On the Dollar side. 96.3x is naked with inline better NFP while a flop [check] will put us in a quick retrace 94.4x till the FED.

For the actual flows (euro only) ...to the other side with a flop [check], is basically nothing really tradable ... unlock a direct short squeeze as far as 1.128x and will trigger cover time for those carrying shorts...
Very well done all Bulls ... all yours. Move is pretty much done even before NY. Tracking the opening in case it triggers a major selloff (not expected but the flop WAS MASSIVE) ...

Flat in Euro, Gold and Equities ...on the rest of the board not much to see same levels, same trades, same all.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,792
  • Jun 3, 2016 7:48am Jun 3, 2016 7:48am
Quoting chester123
simply wow, never seen such flop. but its strange unemployment ticked down by 0,2 even though the participation rate did not decrease much.
Bastardising macroeconomics a good way to understand it for trading is: Unemployment rate = Present right now (current number) while NFP = the upcoming short trend in the Economy ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,793
  • Jun 3, 2016 8:06am Jun 3, 2016 8:06am
  • #140,794
  • Edited 8:28am Jun 3, 2016 8:06am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Bastardising macroeconomics a good way to understand it for trading is: Unemployment rate = Present right now (current number) while NFP = the upcoming short trend in the Economy ... sisse
would you say the report is in game changer category? I guess not........ my short term swing chart atteched: NFP killed the ECB flows continuation down which would be an final extension short term in already short term neutral outlook. And so given short term contradictory ECB and NFP =) short term outllok stays neutral. we gonna be chopping in the blue zone.
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  • #140,795
  • Jun 3, 2016 8:10am Jun 3, 2016 8:10am
Massive movers and shakers the last 2 days. Officially June hike is dead today but more importantly the report was AWFUL beyond repair and excuse and July hikes is looking rather weak.

Markets will definitivly rect to this. ECB will save the day for Equities via more QE. Once we settle the knee jerk shock in the next few session and with hikes Junes out of the equation will enter in full RISK ON mode ... until then we have all the key macro data for the Spring ...

sisse
Quoting sisse
++++ Quick Call 8 (update 1) ++++ To Scale in or not to Scale in ...thats the question? .

++++ Quick Call 8 (Final Update) ++++

To Scale in or not to Scale in ...thats the question? ...


Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.118x (Total time 9 days)


-> LMT BUY 1.120x -> TP1 => 1.140x | STP => 1.115x | max r:r -=> 4:1

Pixie666

goosebone

workingforex

NMZee


-> No touch (till M close) | 1.130x or 1.110x | max r:r -=> 3:1

chester123

hoom

Vorex

eborn

Grinsakh


-> LMT SELL 1.120x -> TP1 => 1.100x 1.095x | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> 5:1

IMARICH1

mayafx

k.k

roobii

ExForX

chronical


...and that was it for Iteration 8. No winners but I hope was a very good lesson on how to scale in when a trend is already +500 ticks away. Point being if you are going to scale in at the end of the trend do it with confidence and with very limited risk. It took a major short-circuit to take it so well done to all bears from the Highs as it was a fantastic and nearly flawless swing ride overall ...


On Iteration 9. Enjoy the ride as NY hasn't even open yet

++++ Quick Call 9 (First Update) ++++

Should I stay or should I go? ...

Currently Euro is trading 1.130x (elapsed time 0 days 1 hour)



-> LMT BUY 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.125x [check] | TP1 => 1.135x [in play] | STP => 1.105x | max r:r -=> 4:1

manosk

chester123

Vorex


No touch (till next W close) | 1.125x or 1.105x | max r:r -=> 4:1


-> LMT SELL 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.105x | TP1 => 1.095x | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> 4:1

nutts

IMARICH1

primejarvis

Fadhl

Earleone


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,796
  • Edited 8:40am Jun 3, 2016 8:26am | Edited 8:40am
Quoting chester123
{quote} would you say the report is in game changer category? I guess not........ my short term swing chart atteched: NFP killed the ECB flows continuation down which would be an final extension short term in already short term neutral outlook. And so given short term contradictory ECB and NFP =) short term outllok stays neutral. we gonna be chopping in the blue zone. {image}
Well it is a rather very bad report. I will put it on the edge of a game changer. A soft push from risk (Brexit) can definitely trigger a WTF moment and the major correction we have been waiting since last month.

We will need to really track the next round of macro numbers as expectations on the US economy are not aligned to a crisis sell-off.

On the Euro, not really changing much for now.

Remember we changed to short term outlook to neutral for this combo last week. We cleared main target 1.109x on the W close to the tick and the current move was too sharp and with poor r:r to attempt to play the reverso (who would have though such a bad report). On the mid term the ECB was decisive yesterday and we changed to mid term outlook to sell and I don't see a single number in NFP enough reason to change the outlook for now. Risk, QE and still July hikes on the table for the mid term so ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,797
  • Jun 3, 2016 8:27am Jun 3, 2016 8:27am
Quoting IMARICH1
Another concern I have is I see .134X being a level for Bulls and Bears. On the Daily Chart I see the wave from .161X to .109X and in a SELL OUTLOOK you Sell from inside out (middle of range) and extremes. We are at the lowers part of range......it would be better to SELL at MIDDLE around .134X instead. However, I believe that ship has sailed and we are not going to go back to MIDDLE of Daily range. Therefore, if you are in SELL mode where could you take a position if you were not in the market yet? .121X is a very BIG LEVEL as well that BEARS have...

Never say never, we are almost close to your 1.134x
Selling at the bottom is very dangerous, risk/reward is rarely good, today was one example, it's better to stay out or wait for retracement, that's how I see it, interested in what sisse has to say about this.
  • #140,798
  • Jun 3, 2016 8:35am Jun 3, 2016 8:35am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well it is a rather very bad report. I will put it on the edge of a game changer. A soft push from risk (Brexit) can definitely trigger a WTF moment and the major correction we have been waiting since last month. We will need to really track the next round of macro numbers as expectations on the US economy are not aligned to a crisis sell-off. On the Euro, not really changing much for now. Remember we changed to short term outlook to neutral for this combo last week. We cleared main target 1.109x on the W close to the tick and the current...
all right. all makes sense
  • #140,799
  • Jun 3, 2016 8:52am Jun 3, 2016 8:52am
Vorex,

Very true Vorex. My issue is I think I know the right answer or almost right answer is the better way to put it. And, unfortunately, this hurts my trading! And, since I am not confident in knowing if my answer is wrong or right most the time, I make bad choices. Looking at my 2 previous posts to sisse with my thoughts scrambled, I have some things right and now in hindsight some things very wrong.

First: I thought sisse changed MID AND SHORT TERM OUTLOOK to SELL. This was my FLOP for today! This is why I lost on this last trade iteration.

I knew in NEUTRAL you SELL or BUY at EXTREMES and trade to Target and not CENTER.

I knew in SELL you SELL from INSIDE OUT and at EXTREMES

Since I thought we were in SELL SHORT AND MID TERM, I chose SELL even though I was telling myself we are at the EXTREME here of the RANGE looking at the RANGE (wave) from DAY CHART.

I should NOT have scaled in at all. I should have just left chips on the table to see if NFP would complete the move to .097X since we were the bottom of range.

As I said, the better trade is at .134X as that would be in the MIDDLE of range....BUT, since short term OUTLOOK is NEUTRAL I would not take a SELL at .134X and only at an extreme or ONLY if Short term OUTLOOK changes to SELL.

sisse,

If you get time today, I did try and answer your questions and would like to learn some more today. NFP has killed my hopes again of the SHORT term and MID TERM aligning this month.
  • #140,800
  • Edited 9:30am Jun 3, 2016 9:18am | Edited 9:30am
hmmm, I posted the short term map with the finished short term sell swing down. We now in retrace short term.

But here is my mid term map and projection of mid term down swing as we are in sell mid term based on fundies!

P.S.: what it shows is that we are still on the top side of the mid term range and the NFP flop may be seen as opprtunity to jump in and sell mid term. However, Im gonna wait until we clear the situation short term.
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