RelaxRay Journal

Thanks for clarifying, Ray! i'm fine. Hope everything is well for you too. it's always great to see you guys hanging around

030616 Daily Battle Report

Self
Feeling burnt - tired.
NFP day, taking it easy till then.
Ready when you are.


Currencies
Overnight happenings:
UJ offered, leaning on 50% fib of previous impulse
EURO offered nothing much new


Indexes(Mainly just SP500, JP225, DAX)
DXY - ranging $95-$96
Index overnight happenings: Resilient.



Commodities
Gold - hovering $1200
Oil - Still flirting with $50, OPEC nothing new
Copper - making a double/triple/whatever bottom?
Iron Ore: -0.5% to $US48.18/tonne


Bonds
2-y Treasury yield 0.89%
Gilt 2-y yield 0.37% (WTF)
JGB 2-y yield -0.24%
Aus 2-y yield 1.61%(WTF)


Overnight News
nothing new/much..


Options expiries



Refer to wire for updates through day


Today
NFP odds and knots, USD day
GBP servicePMI
CAD trade


Thoughts​
A/N to weight down on support?
GDT +
NZD to test?
NNNFFFFPPPPPP
Aus 2-y yield 1.61%(WTF)
Gilt 2-y yield 0.37% (WTF)
among those 2, things do not look rosy, in days ahead, they might rotate lower.. yields to lead?
Selling AUD/NZD starting to look interesting, given that space and option option barrier to attack.. (RBA on 7june, RBNZ on 9june) So, I guess, dates be drawn next week. (BTW, RBNZ 2-y 2.090 , as per investing(.com) , so, interesting to see how she maps out. Maybe a "tail" on AUD/NZD. then again, this is all too predictive, price havent suggest a "buy" yet as well.

Sure, my pleasure. I'm great. Thanks. Yea, I love seeing the thread active too.

Rgds

Here is how I read FTI's chart waves - but I never know if I am right or wrong in my view as per FTI - love to have your thoughts....

 

1. PB in white after nice impulse 4 candles:
   1. ABC to c. 50% retrace of my impulse send in my scout
   2. wB played below wA (strong bear sign) so impulse long not possible here
   3. wD down takes out wA high then reacts to my buying zone (lowest candle in B wave) for E long
   4. wE is where bulls have another go long but cannot take out wC high - wE is retrace long and not impulsive
   5. wF forms a LH (now have H L LH) and takes out low of wE retrace swing long
   6. Now I can whack em for the drop down - attack

2. PB in blue
   1. PB (pull back) starts- if this is start of w4 this could be messy PB as they need to get momentum for w5 and better to get in at start of w5 and not the PB - let us see
   2. wA run long - 4 candles if I get a C it could exceed the 4 candles in price and time
   3. scout out in wB short
   4. oh my scout is bleeding with this wC long - oh my gosh this is very strong bull and we are in w4 - it has almost hit a selling zone (start candle of wF white) - we have PB very very deep (> 50%) so this is either messy strong w4 or start of reversal
   5. wD starts (inside red candles) run down - does not take out wA high and this is a messy w4 so let me get out:
      1. I will get in at start of w5 if it comes or if I see very clear double top or head and shoulders reversal nicely formed.

   6. meantime I wait and it runs long again to test my selling zone
   7. we hit my selling zone and run out of steam ( + inside candle ) + cannot stay above my wC of the blue PB

3. PB in purple:
   1. send in my scout(s) to see if we can now head down in my w5 after that strong w4 topped out
   2. 1st impulse wave run down is good we stay below that res of blue wC high and we are taking out all in our way heading down so far so good
   3. then we get a wA PB long and a potential wB - this may go on to form a wC PB above wA for 3 or more candles or may keep running down
   4. we form an ABC that runs out of steam in my selling zone (start of w5 run down) - now I have H LL LH
   5. wD runs down taking out high of wA and has small reaction to buying zone
   6. wE PB long then wF (has LH) is in our impulse direction and is not a PB so good to attack for the drop down

Thanks for sharing your inputs Alex..
But wow... That is quite the play..

I am afraid, I do not dance well enough yet to elaborate more on the wave thingy.. Hence I believe, it be better if you check with the guys back at the thread.. however, I be more happy to elaborate what I can.. so, in case if-when(cough cough) FTI reads here, he may enlighten us both.

I try to keep it as simple and stay as nimble as possible for me, as my learning in this AB CD EF - 1 2 3 wave thing is very very elementary.

Regarding the perimeter for the chart, I believe it is in hourly, as FTI saved it as "H1" lol.... no shit Sherlock. But if he didnt.. then, I guess hourly would be a good perimeter as well.

1)
On first impulse AB(4 relatively nice bear bars, then 1 that indicate some buyers, then a last bear) count, the pull back for her stalls right around the 50% of impulse AB.
//To break AB down, we have a stall at B, which found buyers till the 50% marker.. then stalling again. First sign of stall, I feel it be good to start watching, if there is an intention for buyers to move higher, or sellers to come back in. With the period(time factor) it continue stalling, and not make significant high/push. Hence, the scout was sent in.//
2)
So, FTI sends the scout, and plays well, he sends another checker, to poise himself for a attack.
//Refresh, first scout at 50% to test validate move, checker few bars later(patience and prudence) to check scout.//
3)
Total count:2 , wave D pauses above wave B. [ I find discussing this abit too rigid, as we should not really set perimeters for these, as there is too many permutations for waves.. but what is certain here is, wave D is in a way inside impulse AB, so, in other words, price stalls but not head higher. perhaps, a lower time chart(short chart in FTI words) would be more telling in this case, for positioning and asssesing heading forward.]
// So, CD plays benign, nothing new to add, price moves to ~50% of CD// [ again, in real time, I think this discussion is not valid as looking at it in hindsight is much different then in real time.. what we can make certain here is to check short chart for assessing]//
4)
Ok, we can tango at E, sellers came in assertive for a good time period. (if in short chart, we be looking at ~15mins + but in this case, which I do think FTI is using hourly(lol) it shows pressure for the past hour.
- law of motion -
Object in motion, stays in motion unless act on.
Until here, price and chart with impulse, volatility and time, have not suggest buyers. possibly a stall but not buying.. (IMO, correct if wrong)
Hence, FTI pounced on it and went RAMBO, -2.. -16 in quick succession..
//erm nothing much here as well, in real time, it be more taxing and constant assessing needed.
Think of a car, speeding, we are the driver, and flooring the vehicle. Only thing we should be of concern is where, when to stop and traffic.//
5)
square 8 - 5 - 3 - 2 ... 1
breaking of the low at "B" FTI took out 8 troops (Prudence, nimble) and continue that on the way down... (nimble)
// I remember FTI telling me, dont pick top, bottom, just ride along and do what feels right // or something similar.
So now, we're going 200km/h. What we be doing? We have fear in our bloods, possibly greed from the big lots, but i be having fear.. on the left, there should be some form of structure we can look at, but keeping that out for the moment, we look at the impulse vola(sigma) of EF.
How much pips she move and how healthy she is. At the part where FTI square 5, 3 , 2 .. its 100%++ of AB leg. Sure it can also move much more, but patience and prudence with the best outcome for a nimble trader would be to take it off, and reload if needed/or when permit.(and if it doesnt.. queue monk story and old man story, together with in FTI words "ability to move on quickly is a great asset of any trader". so as there is no perimeter for the pip count nor time period.. this is what I can come up with.. it is also whats the safest, thing to do.. and put money in the books.
(My one and only objective is to grow book.) And limit the risk, exposure whenever possible for the best outcome possible.

6) i reckon it be the same, just playing tune to her song, she sings..

//foot notes: fti mentions 50% is a good zone, 61.8% (3/4 of move) is bad bad bad.//

AOW
31. Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground over which
it flows; the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he
is facing.

32. Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are
no constant conditions.

33. He who can modify his tactics in relation to his opponent and thereby
succeed in winning, may be called a heaven-born captain.

30. So in war, the way is to avoid what is strong and to strike at what is weak.

33. If there is disturbance in the camp, the generals authority is weak. If the
banners and flags are shifted about, sedition is afoot. If the officers are
angry, it means that the men are weary.


I believe, whats most important, is flowing with her, she move, we move, she stop, we stop.. Tango tango. And be patient and prudence(nimble) at the same time.
Other times, theres no wave.. or at least, I cant see them. lol. More often then not I may add, and as frustrating as it is.. we just got to stop/pause. As FTI mentions, we trade the impulse, not retracement. We want the impulse. Least, free the mind.. in his words "never be rigid, rigidity kills"

Hope I been of any help and not mess it up even more, happy to chat at thread, our seniors are there.. lol and.. grandmaster.

Rgds

Daily Battle Report

Self
Cranky


Currencies
Overnight happenings:
Mad NFP, Dollar sold massively, uncertainty looms, dollar unsettled, JPY on bid


Indexes(Mainly just SP500, JP225, DAX)
DXY - Sold off massively,current @ $94.18
Index overnight happenings: Odd ball



Commodities
Gold - Rocket fuel~
Oil - Flirt
Copper - lower low, higher high, (near term)
Iron Ore: +3.9% $US50.08/tonne



Bonds
2-y Treasury yield 0.791% (lol)
Gilt 2-y yield 0.346% (lol)
JGB 2-y yield -0.24%
Aus 2-y yield 1.61% (lol)
NZ 2Y yield 2.09% (lol..)


Overnight News
NFP everywhere
brexit polls


Options expiries


Refer to wire for updates through day


Today
relatively slow day
US labor market conditions


Thoughts
let market settle, and rebalance, probably for a day or two, and balance myself before next campaign

I will have a read - I do my numbering 1 2 3 4 5 - with 2 and 4 being pullback which I number abc. So all the waves in my pullbacks or what I think are pullbacks I use abc.

I do not think the impulse is AB as you do - the impulse is a wave down and then A is wA of abc pullback and B is wB of abc pullback in FTI example and C completes ABC pullback. Just how I see it but I agree with your basic thinking of what is going on and of FTI's concern of deep PBs - he told me stay out of deep PBs unless you get strong double top or head and shoulders (correctly formed) or you are sure the next wave down has started (H L LH type of thing).

Alex

hmm yes, you are right. the actual term is as what you said, and my was the "inverse" of it.

That, would be a perfect wave, but in reality.. I rarely see them, or... am oblivious to it till its too late(lol). Anyhow, Phil/FTI once mention, dont go spotting them, rather, let them show, and whats important is seeing the hip and lop, high high - high low, low high - low low as they come, as a good foundation to reading.

Rgds

070616 Daily Battle Report

Self
Ready for BATTLE.


Currencies
Overnight happenings:
CAD strength, USD SOLD, whats new
UJPY surprisingly resilient, did not test the lower bound of April sub 105 low. I would think that such talks by YELLEN would give fundies to push them lower. Should price refrain from heading lower, I would think that UJ might have set the low for the year, or at least for the quarter leading till the US elections.


Indexes(Mainly just SP500, JP225, DAX)
DXY - below $94 level , 50% of impulse up
Index overnight happenings:
SP500 searching for the sky, JP bear slowing, DAX bull slowing(lower high)


Commodities
Gold - benign
Oil - 50$?!
Copper - Being copper
Iron Ore: +2.1% $US51.11/tonne


Bonds
2-y Treasury yield 0.79% (hmm....)
Gilt 2-y yield 0.34% (this joker is really something)
JGB 2-y yield -0.25%
Aus 2-y yield 1.61% (ok, on queue for later, T-1hour~.. if they cut)
NZ 2-y 2.05% (hmm..)

Overnight News
yellen doing the dishes, then saying she do the dishes, then denying she ever did the dishes...


Options expiries



Refer to wire for updates through day


Today
RBA
NFP productivity
CAD IVEY PMI


Thoughts​
Looking at how prices is sitting-moving this Asian morning, it doesnt show much follow through from yellen yesterday, or they are awaiting for RBA later on. Price first move up sharply, then fizzled quickly when yellen started using "on the other hand"(apparently its an economist favourite she states) after saying something positive. So with that in mind, it feels that she wants to be neutral, yet not give any conclusions. And as such, there were no conclusions other then what is already previously known, the "fed will hike gradually, to achieve a 2% infla target over.. blah blah blah".
Aside from that, Iron ore prices headed up, giving the AUD some strength, and it does feel tha tthe AUD have been moving up on back of USD weakness, the high iron ore prices effect on the AUD remains to be seen, might play two ways, but am not really feeling much feel in dancing now. Trying to cultivate not taking trades into news, and rather flowing proper like FTI, LuSans.. (as i'm reading the thread, and they provide me mental reference points as to where I am in the thread)

AUD HOLD ! etc etc

Sold E/A
Long A/U

Post charts when done, not going heavy on E/A , maybe just a scout
A/U could atk with scout and checker + infantry early on, dont intend to stay long after GBP fat finger, may just do the first impulse and square all before london open

Rgds

Think Ima not post charts, its just 1x skew for linear moves. squared @ AU 7423 .. EA @ 1.5287

I agree do not get hung up on counts - I tried Elliott stuff a lot in past to a great degree and it was not helpful to me - although some of it is now - but the counts hinder and do not help. No rigidity. I like to look for where strength is in pa, waves and candles - how many candles in this wave and how strong their push was that sort of stuff and the picture changes all the time.

I like to think now: where is the last impulse if it is in a pullback now how strong/weak it is and what should I do about it - what is H1 doing/RoK - I trade in m5.

Alex

Hi Alex,
Yes, again, you have mentioned it and to add: "Some things work some of the time, other things work other times. But none work ALL the time."

AOW
"27. All men can see the tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is
the strategy out of which victory is evolved.

28. Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your
methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances.

29. Military tactics are like unto water; for water in its natural course runs
away from high places and hastens downwards.

30. So in war, the way is to avoid what is strong and to strike at what is weak.

31. Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground over which
it flows; the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he
is facing.

32. Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are
no constant conditions.

33. He who can modify his tactics in relation to his opponent and thereby
succeed in winning, may be called a heaven-born captain."


Sometimes, I imagine myself to be in the market place, sourcing for grocery. From where I am from in Asia, the market is usually a chaotic place(lol). You have this guy buying this and another guy buying that. All shouting at the seller, for a price. Very much like in the PIT.

So, both the buyer and seller want to make the best of their money, right? In the sense, buyer wants cheap, sellers wants more. What if there is ONLY one item left, and there is TWO buyers for the piece? Here is where the price war begin.. It becomes an auction, natural reaction would be to bid it higher, since 1) you want it 2) you dont mind paying more/find it cheap 3) you think you can out-bid the other. And if the no one wants, price fizzles and drops. That in my opinion, is the essence of price. And the driver of the market. (Which I realize not too long ago.)

Truth is, from what I understand, this is what I need to do in OUR market, buy when price is buying, sell when price is selling, if it rest, i square/ease off. Wave count in my opinion, are different batches of participants entering, and how this comes together with FTI mention about "ducks" and "sweeping zones"

With the health of the move, how can we quantify, assess it...? FTI mentions, we need to look at its, impulse, volatility, time tenure and activity(I think I did not miss any.. if I did, kindly advise.) Hence, if its still making HH HL, LH LL, taking out the previous structure, I am led to think that the move is healthy, taking into consideration, what is the volatility in the time tenure. I find this to be highly challenging for myself as well, as, its just so different, every move is different, but I guess, the more we use it, the more we learn. "Use it or lose it" and "practice makes perfect"
A good reference/thought would be the "Law of motion".
Which 1) An object at rest, will remain at rest unless act on. 2) F = M(mass) * A(Acceleration) 3) total equal force = total opposite force


I think I am all over the place here, will come back to re-structure this post, if time permits.

Hope that helps Alex, as I am still learning too. Happy to bounce ideas off at FTI thread. What do you think?

Regards
Ray

linear work on the au and e/a earlier in day

this during london-ny


probably squaring for the day, still reading thread.


Rgds



silly trade, bad cultivation.
lucky to get out safe..
time of day - london close, hence, not very wise to make battle at this time

This would be real interesting to get FTI view - instead of adding to the very deep PB after scout is in trouble (as not clear to me downtrend has resumed) you can close it down at loss until you get a clear double top or head and shoulders and start of last wave is in evidence that it has begun. Say you close it all down with 2 in trouble - then 2 becomes your new scout number and you would enter at 2 (as new base), 4 (1, 1, 2 3, 5,8) - after all deep PB could become reversal.

Alex

Hi Alex

I am assuming that you mean about the "2nd attack" ?
well, i dont know, it just felt right

Rgds

080616 Daily Battle Report

Self
Ready for battle


Currencies
Overnight happenings:
CAD strength, Oil >$50
broad USD weakness continued


Indexes(Mainly just SP500, JP225, DAX)
DXY - Sold <$94
Index overnight happenings:
Benign, SP new high


Commodities
Gold - Riding the USD weakness
Oil - >$50
Copper - Lower low attempted
Iron Ore: +2.8% $US52.54/tonne


Bonds
2-y Treasury yield 0.783%
Gilt 2-y yield 0.364% (wow for a CB thank "next move is up", this yield has been heading lower)
JGB 2-y yield -0.24%
Aus 2-y yield 1.658%
NZD 2-y yield 2.1%


Overnight News
nothing much


Options expiries



Refer to wire for updates through day


Today
GBP for GBP being GBP
JOLTS for dressing
CAD expecting a drastic diff
Crude for crude


Thoughts​
Possible cut for NZD tomorrow?

090616 Daily Battle Report

Self
Ready for battle


Currencies
Overnight happenings:
NZD no cut, market positioned for one it seems, VOLATILE reaction.
Oil, still above $50
GBP looking weak


Indexes(Mainly just SP500, JP225, DAX)
DXY - Sold <$94, NO LOVE FOR DXY
Index overnight happenings:
Benign, SP new high(again)


Commodities
Gold - Riding the USD weakness, > $1250
Oil - >$50
Copper - Lower low attempted
Iron Ore:


Bonds
2-y Treasury yield 0.783%
Gilt 2-y yield 0.364% -> 0.383%
JGB 2-y yield -0.24%
Aus 2-y yield 1.658% -> 1.71%
NZD 2-y yield 2.1% -> 2.2% (lol)


Overnight News
NZD


Options expiries



Refer to wire for updates through day


Today
Draghila
Poloz also speaking
Not expecting much from those two, just keeping an ear open
US claims (if it matters)


Thoughts​
No cut NZD
JOLTS was fine
RBNZ did not move, believe limit orders triggered in thin liquidity
GBP nearing/at pre fat finger level
UJ nearing 106
UC < 1.27
EU > 1.14
AU <= .75
NZ > .71
Just thought I'd write this for ref tomorrow.
Current thoughts at print,
G/U attempted an attack < 1.45, but bid up, attempting again. Believe sweeping zone. Daily closed inside bar, lower low from may high
EU, after compressing, sprang to ~1.14
UJ, drunk with SAKE, lost referrencing to line in sand level

eu was ranging/consolidating for abit after fri NFP.
did not babysit, note to self, remember babysit, be professional. dont be sloppy.



lesson lesson lesson...


need to pay closer attention to primary, taking too much un-needed risk, lucky it came out fine.


BE trade here, limiting risk, do not want extra .. tried to dance this with the GU 3K.. but just did not want to play ball. and I did not want extra risk here as this is very counter -trend and at a very tender region




More practise ahead... practise practise practise..
strategise the sequence, limitless variation, absolute victory


thoughts:
no idea where were I all afternoon.. its like i went missing since early london till start NY. Where are you? hello hello

Rgds

100616 Daily Battle Report

Self
Ready for battle
Slight grumpy... coffee?


Currencies
Overnight happenings:
USD found some love


Indexes(Mainly just SP500, JP225, DAX)
DXY - echno sentiment on USD here, DXY found some love too.
Index overnight happenings:
Benign, make or break zones..


Commodities
Gold - > $1250
Oil - flirt continues $50
Copper - Lower low done
Iron Ore: $US52.56/tonne


Bonds
2-y Treasury yield 0.783% -> 0.771%
Gilt 2-y yield 0.383% -> 0.386%
JGB 2-y yield -0.24%
Aus 2-y yield 1.71% -> 1.678
NZD 2-y yield 2.2% -> 2.155%


Overnight News



Options expiries



Refer to wire for updates through day


Today
Wonder if the Buba will talk about brexit
Ger final CPI
CAD flavours, employments
USD infla expecta


Thoughts​
Variation of impulse/movements/momentum... what is the essence? price... price is the essence, and words are names.. but how do I see,assess them better.. thoughts..

130616 Daily Battle Report

Self
Ready for battle.
big week this week.


Currencies
Overnight happenings:
USD found no love on Friday, CAD and JPY did.
Overnight.. it seem USD clawed some back.


Indexes(Mainly just SP500, JP225, DAX)
DXY - echno sentiment on USD here, DXY found some love too, retraced around 50% of previous bear move down
Index overnight happenings:
break break break zones


Commodities
Gold - > $1250
Oil - <$50
Copper - Lower low done
Iron Ore:


Bonds
2-y Treasury yield 0.771% -> 0.72% (wow, fell by quite abit)
Gilt 2-y yield 0.386% -> 0.416% (hmm..)
JGB 2-y yield -0.24% -> -0.27 (interesting..)
Aus 2-y yield 1.678% -> 1.664%
NZD 2-y yield 2.155% -> 2.13%


Overnight News
Not much, brexit as usual..


Options expiries



Refer to wire for updates through day


Today
Benign, AUD bank holi


Thoughts​
"let her show"
"dance not lead"