Aggressively Simple Renko

I have not dissapeared!!!

I have been developing an EA, which has just gone into Demo - more for the opening and closing and using some alternatives openings and checking to see if the EA actually works.

Happy to say it is up over $100 over the last 3 or 4 days using 0.01 lots... the problem is that it is not opening the trades up correctly by the looks of it, or not at all on some other points... Not particularly helpful!!!

The indicator that i am using to open the inital entries repaints, of which i have no problem with... the issue seems to be the EA just opens up roughly whereever it wants... so just checking the logic, running it for a month, and then going to look at the performance over that time... if it is profitable, then it may be a case that it is just left to be profitable... I suppose ta major issue is that the brick size is such, that trades coudl easily be in flight for a month, so will make a decision at the end of June as to whether I modify or keep running the demo.

As it stands, out of 10 pairs and the DOW, only 4 pairs have been opened... which is fine... but i manually closed down an NZDUSD trade becuase it was just completely wrong as an opening... we are talking about 70 pips after the right open order place... Bit of a pain!

Again it could be that it was opened on the additional entry (should only open in the direction of an inflight trade) so there is clearly an error there, although the way the EA shoudl run, is that it should not be an issue over time, as this is a buy/sell, sell/buy system...

Will keep you updated, but will try to get a TE of the demo... at the moment my 2K is sitting a bit dormant while i test on demo...

Well, another revision to the EA... will be trying it next week - hopeuflly with a little more success (in terms of entires and exits).

The EA really did start acting funny again - buying in a downtrend and vice versa.. Opening trades totally against the logic, and on the additional entires, it seems like it was just making it up as it went along... Very bizzare.

I cant take any of the profits +/- seriously as they are so out of whack... very strange as the entries and exits were fine on backtesting mode, but completely irregular on forward testing...

Hmmmmm.....

Well, the EA has been improved, new demo (with the new version) is up nearly $330 on one pair... not opened up anything else.

Unfortunately, it is still not working correcty, and the profit shoudl be lower, as it did not close out of the positions at the right time (difficult to control risk if it does not close correctly!!!!)

I am leaving it running to see where it does eventuially close. The main entry and exit is based on a repainting indicator, but cant see why it would not close based on this....

It is all good fun going through this process though!

My next idea is to probably place a push notification for when the entry and exits are hit, and make the initial entry manual, but the additional entries automatic.

Considering the impending referendum of Brexit, I would not want to be in the market in any case, so got time to play about with it and see how it reacts...

Right, latest iteration of the EA sorted.

This is going to be based on push alerts to open and close the inital entries and exits, and then the additional entries only are going to be handled by the EA.

The last version of the EA was great at the additional entries, but rubbish at the initial - as I say, the inidcator that I am using for entries and exits repaints, but the levels that I have set mean that the repaint has little effect on the overall, it is all about where the cross happens (and no, it is not an MA cross!)

I will need to set up everything tonight to check that it all works, and then start testing it, as the signals can come at any point, i need to know the effect of missing a signal overnight for instance - is it going to be significnt (some of these trades run for 400-500 pips, so even missing the inital entry by 30-40 pips is not too big of a deal.... sort of!). It could even work in my favour as sometimes after a signal, they retrace a bit- sometimes to close out, or somtimes another position is added and goes on to make a healthy profit.

I am a bit reluctant to give a view on the level of profit based on the last EA, as it was not closing out when it should have, but there were some $40-$50 winners in there based on 0.01 lot sizes... which falls laregly in line with the testing when it works corectly. At the same time, the $300 profit was definately Atypical, although not unexpected...

In terms of a draw down event, this shoudl be limited to about 40 pips per open position, so the black swan event would only happen in the event of price stagnating and moving up and down in a range of 30 pips over a long period of time... if this happened 10 times, it would only be a loss of $40, which is well in the tolerance limits of the account, but not on the individual pair - which will still have the $500 per pair.

The next question woudl be, do i keep the TE as is, showing the $70 loss, or do i reset it. It bothers me not, as a loss is still a loss, but in terms of validating the system, which has changed slightly, and manually and automating, and hybid trading is very very different as well...

If anyone has any thoughts of pros and cons, i would be happy to hear the thoughts... I woudl only think that the ratios woudl be well out of whack, such as the account profit over time... as I have not traded on the account for a couple of months...

​Well that was a bit of an anti climax, EA and push not working at all.... sent back to developer!

At last!!!

Thanks to Keydcuk on the forums after I gave up on my developer, Keydcuk coded the ea in about 30 minutes... I am forward testing on a demo account to see how it works... I think there are some inconsistencies in the way it is working, but that could be how it is initialising. The indicator that I use also repaints - I know this, so it could be down to that. On the whole, it does not seem to affect the EA too much, but that is what the demo is for.

I think I also installed the wrong EA (he did two versions, one which only had the initial entry and one with the additional entries) which meant that the additional entries were not working... or it could be how I have downloaded the EA somehow, as I can not see any difference in them. Either way, the initial entries are working great, so that it is a big start.

Already the EA is showing a profit after 1 day of $23 with a floating profit of about $13... a nice little start. This should be much bigger with the additional entries once they start to kick in. I will need to try to get the investor password and set up a TE to show how it is working, but wont be able to do it for a couple of days.. but a good start!

Equity currently sitting at about $2050 (from a $2000 start balance)

Trying to get a TE up to show this on demo, but just hangs with a connecting to broker task bar...

Hmmm... I suppose in any case the demo is not the big deal... it is the Live account when it really matters!

I still cant get the alternative entries to work - there shoudl have been a fair few more, which would have bumped the equity up to probably around the 2070 maybe as high as 2100 mark... but hey ho! Time to try to sort it out and get the alternatives working. Ultimately it is great to see the inital entries working... once the alternates start working, will be able to see if they are closed down b the intial entry, and if so, looks like we will be set to move to live pretty soon.

Not that i will be doing anything over Brexit... Dont see much of a point risking a big gap - it oculd be 100-200 pips gap easily... if not even more, and by all accounts looks as though it is going to be a pretty close run thing... one thing is for sure, is that ALL of the currency pairs - USD, EUR and GBP will suffer/gain from it... so there could be a carnage situation going on!!!

Got to say, I am loving the performance of the initial entries...

Since i got the from KeydcUK, starting with a balance of $2000, I am currently sitting on a balance of 2055.62, with equity of $2150, and a floating p/l of c.$94 (circa... because it keeps going up and down in a live market!)

Out of 10 instruments, 7 have open orders against them, with the emiander waiting for an opportunity to enter the market.

Just some quick stats:

19 trades so far...

gross profit: 103.73
gross loss: -48.11
profit factor: 2.16
biggest win: 34.67
biggest loss: -7.34

average proft per trade: 12.97
average loss per trade: -4.37

short positions: 10 (won 50%)
Long positions: 9 (won 33.3%)

The biggies thought of by some:

maximal drawdown: 36.14 (1.81%)
Relative drawdown: 1.81% (36.14)

This is a close buy, open sell... close sell open buy system, so there should pretty much be the same amount of buys and sells, so no real bias on either...
It could be that there is a bias on the account, but not on the individual instruments.

Currently there is no additional entries being entered in as of yet. I believe the way it works, is that a new initial entry needs to be opened, and that will create the magic number needed to start opening up the additional. will see over the course of this week and see how it goes.

There has not been a massive movement to understand losses yet, but i think the maximum loss will be around $20, but that is based on the additional
openings as well... so there is a lot more profit to be made... just need to make sure that I can bank it!

New version of the EA sent over, and in the night, somehow managed to open what must ahve been about 400 orders, each with a loss of about $1 each... not quite sure of the circumstances around this but obviusly a big issue!!! This happened on 2 pairs as far as i can see the GBPUSD and GBPJPY. I can not tell whether this had to do with the additional entries or the initial entries, but very very strange...

The strtagey still looks good, but hthe EA is looking to be dead at this point, as having a drawdown of 30% can not be allowed!!! lol Glad i was doing this on demo...

Back to the drawing board me thinks!

well a big shout out ot keydcuk, who is tirelessly and unselfishly helping code the EA. we are now on version 5.1, and this one seems to be a massive leap forward.

It was installd yesterday.... just before the Brexit vote, and it was a shame, becuase had it been on my live account, I woudl be sitting with a total profit of about $400 just from last night... with the EA working at about 75% accuracy of where i woudl like it to be... which is pretty good considering the journey so far!!

Balance is 2372 and equity is 2402.

I started the account over (due to the massive drawdown caused by the craziness of the previous version, NOT becuase of the strategy) and started it at $2000.

The above numbers are typical for how i view the strategy, and the results it shoudl pull in, but again, it is only 75% there. You could argue that on such a short timeframe that is shoudl be difficult to assess the success or failure, but that is the great thing about renko charts, it is not timebased... it is magnitude based. So i can see in 10 minutes the magnitude, and how things are acting what a time based strategy could see in a month... the charts are always the same in renko strategies... where i see continuous trends, and can see the strength very easily, a timebased just sees 1 big bar stretching over about 500 pips or whatever the fall was last night/this morning! with renko, i can see 50 bars!

Will carry on testing for another couple of weeks to see if any bugs crop up, but it is looking MUCH better than i have previously see on any previous EA.

Wow, is pretty much all I can say so far over the last 24 hours or so.

I have attached my spreadsheet for each instrument I am currently trading. This is based on $2000 actual funds, and $3000 virtual funds (so exactly what I will be trading with)

Just to say, this is the last 24 hours only....



My balance has gone down slightly to $2460, but showing a floating profit of $66.

Maximal drawdown has been just under 20% for this, which is not too bad considering it is across all the instruments. As you can see, the max drawdown for an individual pair is 19%.. athough I think this has gone down further since I did the figures - I had about 7 open trades with a further probably 10-20% drawdown or so, although it is currently showing as part of the floating profit to be tune of about.... $2

I will add more than happy to answer questions on the above stats...

This was going quite well, equity up to $2600, but started to losing cash, and did the same thing as last time and hundreds of orders opened and closed for losses of $0.5 at a time... back to the drawing board.

I am closing this down, as my EA is just not working at the moment.

It is almost there, but with some serious bugs.

I think it is going to take upwards of a couple of months to get this fixed/built, so i am taking the EA off (I am using the funds for a slightly different method, hence the activity).

I will be planning to revisit this once everything is back up and running.

Take care!

Hey Roland,

I can help you with programming. I'm familiar with mql for almost 10 years now.

Cheers

I can program 2 :-)

Hello. I apologize if this is covered somewhere. I'm interested in using a hedging strategy in Canada. One that I can have both trades open on the same instrument at the same time. You posted that in Canada we need to set up "non-netting accounts". Could you explain what that is?

Roland I've been there. Let me tell you about mysterious 100 and 400 trades. Your ea opens a trade let say bullish buy and then it goes down to zero but the cost of closing will be that 1$. You won't see that on your chart because it didn't finish creating renko brick. Also if you're not using tradetick data for backtest then it doesn't make sense to test this strategy. You will get false results.

Proper money management plus stats analysis is key to success here. For example smaller renko means more trades higher fees and almost no profit. Bigger renkos more profit but less trades.
Let me know if you need help. Like I said mm is the most important here. I will keep watching this thread. Maybe someone can figure out money management part?