The Really Useless Thread

4th week bullish usdx.. was expecting at least a partial pull back which just didn't materialize. Maybe the holiday break in the us, will push us back to the 95.20 zone one more time.. before the expansion to the new highs projecting in around 105/106. Going to let current trade in cable run until days before referendum, some saying if they stay or go it will be negative for cable... will decide closer to the date. GLand GT all... hope your all having a nice break across the pond...

As widely expected Gold and Euro completed targets to the tick (119x and 1.109x) over the weekend opening and we are back to start a very interesting few weeks for trading.

Unexpected soft numbers from Germany this morning and equities disliking the fresh reports and in desperate need of fresh macro data before risk and uncertainty take over June .

--> Here changing short term outlook in the Euro from sell to neutral until further data from the ECB / NFP combo that will also serve as last trigger for positioning on the Brexit/FED swing.

Expecting volatility to expand in the Euro and Sterling in the upcoming days starting today as we get closer to the risk play. As usual with major currencies with 'scheduled' events , both Eur/Usd and GU will hold (especially Euro will be in bid) during the pre Brexit jitters and it will only sell-off on extreme panic (not expected) or in confirmation of Europe/EU disintegrating into small pieces via a confirmed vote OUT.

However, Dollar is also in play with potential FED hikes (RMT) in between meaning lots of wide noise expected in charts with a potential of a double whammy outcome for a major mid term swing (no hikes / no brexit or hikes / brexit both are very tradable and yummy).

Lots of actions expected so actively looking for positions across the board ....

sisse

yes...I'm waiting.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...n-poll-reveals

What for, Fool? Buttloads of volatility, that's what.

Sisse, is there anything new you would say on OIL? Do you still see the extension as possible. Its still hanging on the top but its starting to look like the extension is not gonna happen.

Plus when it comes to M1 roll on E/U. Since we closing bellow 1.121X approx. - my chart shows it as important M1 lvl. I find it really bearish.

On short term swing: there is too much uncertainty but if numbers allow this week I expect the pullback to suprise suprise OCT 2015 ECB lvl before we continue down. I may trade that short term leg and than decide what to do next. A lot of unknown here.

NO.

OPEC will settle the deal from the strict OIL front. On the quick in and out extension, either the direct OPEC move, or as collateral of the board, for example +NFP or almost any combo like no brexit /no hikes or hikes and hawkish FED, etc anything outside a risk play can trigger the extension.

However, Oil is definitively starting to take the backseat for the foreseeable future. On the mid term we are reaching the end of the happy days for OIL. We are aligning to form a mid term extended chop zone in the last 2 Quarters so basically we are in the 'last' interesting swings for trading this year...

For now nothing to see until later this week...


Although the highs are wide open, Euro doesn't need neither TA or FA a retrace further than the 1.14xx to trigger the mid term leg. Big movers and shakers for the rest of the year are here so we are about to enter in choose your poison time for the mid term swing after the ECB/NFP combo.

The only party pooper is the UK referendum. Euro would struggle like it always has to just collapse before risk (for obvious reasons). A CONFIRMED double whammy (brexit / hikes) will annihilate Sterling and it will trigger a major selloff in Euro all in favour of Yen. Only a mixed choppy outcome (no brexit / no hikes) will put us to sleep for a couple of months making Euro to aim to the highs again ...

For now, sure the M chart look bearish, but Euro bulls are still sitting tight for the Rate play and wont give up until Equities give the go ahead ....

sisse

sisse,

Follow up to this question you asked last week. You gave different answers for us to choose and many of us answered differently. Wanting to see what the correct answer was due to Monthly close.

My Mid Term is SELL
My original answer was A; but, then I switched to D since MID TERM could be weeks to Months to develop as I have seen and learned the HARD WAY.

I would like to see the MONTHLY CLOSE below the last MONTHLY CLOSE; but, it didn't make a difference when BEARS closed below December BULL candle in January and most were all looking for MID TERM TO BEGIN. I remember the .097X very well and PRICE reversed. So, looking at this January 2016 candle it closed below but didn't continue for the months after. Not to mention that the FEB candle after closed slightly BULLISH but it looked like a LONG wick with no body.
Thanks



"+++ Simple exercise to evaluate if your assumptions about direction are going into the right track +++

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1464349012
Question:
If you mid term is sell/neutral/buy: Where do you thing the current monthly close should/could be (the exact area/price is irrelevant):

a. Around the green area (an Engulfing candle from top to bottom) -> A close below the last candle low
b. Around the orange area (an Outside candle with both top and bottom rejected) -> A close in the body around the last candle middle
c. Around the red area (a Rejection candle of lows) -> A close above the last candle high
​d. No clue/I think is irrelevant.

*The name of the candles is irrelevant ...

sisse"

Also curious to hear more about the monthly close and the signal it does/doesn't provide us. I was under the impression that the signal Sisse was describing is when a candle tests the lows(highs) and is rejected, then closes above(below) the high(low) of the previous candle it would be a bullish(bearish) signal. While the Dec. candle (1st attached) tested lows and was rejected, then traded above but did not close above the high of previous candle it didn't provide this bullish signal. And the Jan candle never tested monthly lows or highs nor did it close above or below the extremes of the previous candle. The May candle (2nd attached) did fit the bill on all counts by testing highs, rejection, then closing below the low (not just the close) of the April candle providing a bearish signal. Don't know if that's accurate but would like to. Sisse? Follow up: is this where 94.4x came from (dollar)?

We have this pending wrap up from the Monthly close. Market has settle the close.

+++ Simple exercise to evaluate if your assumptions about direction are going into the right track +++

Question:

If you mid term is sell/neutral/buy: Where do you thing the current monthly close should/could be (the exact area/price is irrelevant):

This was a purely TA question and it has raised many question. First the answer: A very strong bearish candle close.

A few TA points here. From a strictly TA price action point of view you can analyse markets from 3 major sides: Candle by Candle, Current Swing/Wave/Direction and Macro Direction/General Trend.

--> The main issue you can notice around these boards and in general is that the majority (especially newbies) get to focus on the Candle by Candle analysis (the usual expecting 'Red/Green' candles triggers,signals, stops, etc etc) . While a few other (especially struggling ones) get obsess with the Macro direction and ignore the in between (those still trading euro parity since 2015 or those stuck with 800 ticks drawdown or 'hedging' 500 ticks down to each side, etc).

--> Very few manage to grasp/or jut simply ignore because of lack of patience or trading too big for their accounts the most important TA part which is the current swing information in a chart.

To wrap it up this first point (we can continue later) the key of success is in balancing these 3 approaches during TA analysis.

--> There are times (very few and around key areas) when candle by candle is the only one to track. There are other times (even fewer when swinging) that macro direction is in play and looking at the BIG picture will make the difference to get lost in translation for the year and blow an account.
The other 70% of the time is key to be in synch with the Current Swing (which is NOT 1 CANDLE) but sadly its one of the areas less discussed here and the one with the most problems in the TA tools you can see around.

Regarding the exercise and last M close. We have a very bearish candle by candle signal. We don't have absolutely nothing in play for the macro direction. Now can you zoom in to the W chart not below and:

1. Spot where the last 3 waves in that range (2015 - today) are?
2. Can you spot 'after the fact of course) the general area where did bulls/bears took over in the chart in each wave?
3. Can you spot what happened when those areas get broken back to the opposite direction (when 'current' direction start, extends and ends) ?

...just a few nuggets to explore ...we'll discuss later.

To wrap up the question (that IMARICH one more time was 'right' on the answer but his inner doubts made him 'chicken out' and self-doubt with the call) what happens if you add FA to the mix? .

Does it make it sense to change a mid term outlook cause of a candle bar? or

...maybe in cases like these are early and very clear TA Signals on whats about to come with a proper trigger? ...

...Its worth remembering that money is not in calling Euro/YEN/OIL/or what have you to the moon or the floor (as that will always happen one way or the other) but when you can 'time' the current swing to ride it with the lesser RISK, the best w% and the smallest potential drawdown...

I hope it helps ...

sisse

sell
UK voters shift toward 'Out' as EU referendum nears

All eyes in Vienna as it's strangely the center of the financial world this week.

Major and potentially game changer from the ECB. When we thought the bazooka was already in play, more coming, buying Corporate bonds in the primary markets early as next week. Conference to confirm size and extend. Uff this can be very big !!!!.

Watch-out European equities flying taking the highs to 10800.xx while Euro sweeping the current floor to the 1.08x handle until the FED with plenty of hard and soft stops get caught...

Oil in play to with noise in the street of a big DEAL on the table for the next few hours .... lots movers and shakers so fasten your seatbelt as we are ready to rock in JUNE.

sisse

There is no new iteration for today but only open for those still trading Iteration 8:

Would you close the trade before the conference for a scratch trade or sit tight on it? If you don't answer its assume you are in ...Updates and standing tables later ....

++++ Quick Call 8 (update 1) ++++

To Scale in or not to Scale in ...thats the question? ...

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.118x (elapsed time 7 days 12 hours)

-> LMT BUY 1.120x -> TP1 => 1.140x | STP => 1.115x | max r:r -=> 4:1

Pixie666

goosebone

workingforex

NMZee

-> No touch (till M close) | 1.130x or 1.110x | max r:r -=> 3:1

chester123

hoom

Vorex

eborn

Grinsakh

-> LMT SELL 1.120x -> TP1 => 1.100x 1.095x | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> 5:1

IMARICH1

mayafx

k.k

roobii

ExForX

chronical

...and here we go for the ECB conference.

--> On the fundamental side:

1. Expecting a game changer win the Euro from Draghi from the QE/corporate bonds side. Anything different will just limit the strength of the impact but wont change the outcome.

--> On the TA side:

1. 1.108x is only and key level in play for today that extend as far as FED. Losing it unlocks as quick test 1.097x before tumbling down to 1.072x and beyond depending on FED. To the other side is just chop and now its very limited with 1.139x still unlocked until tomorrow.

--> For the actual flows:

1. All micro levels raised like usual. A tick below 1.108x unlocks heavy momentum with a hand of NFP in a direct play 1.118x -> 1.108x -> 1.09xx handle with a QE bazooka 2.0 . To the other side I am not interested here for today. 1.124x unlock a quick test 1.139x in a short squeeze.

Here not much to do in Euro but sitting tight to see how it pans out. On the rest of the board actively looking for positions in DAX and OIL for today.

GL all...

sisse

Very dovish ... even deeper rates cuts on the table, more QE as early as June, inflation slightly flop in targets and more dovish and strong words ...thats the first part... details coming ...

sisse

Brexit risk play confirmed by ECB and slightly better macro outlook for the mid term, but bleak outlook in inflation ... thats a about it ... a couple of questions and we are ready to go ...

sisse

Draghi softening the implications of more QE policy in the first question ...not sure how much can it really change the outcome of more easing but in any case:

First important update after the ECB:

--> Changing short term outlook (and prolly mid term soon) in European Equities form neutral to Soft Buy as Brexit jitters will sadly keep us grounded ...

sisse

now really need a big NFP or else JY will whiff in June, citing Brexit angst like her friend Draghi

Fckn Brexit is pain in ass in the middle of the markets. For the FED, tomorrow numbers are key. A good number (with a revision from the poor one) and we have hikes a done deal even if its not in June but July. It wont change the mood neither the flows during the few weeks in between.

Basically we are aligning for 'soap opera' mode next few weeks replace Greece with UK and you got the familiar environment. So tweet, gossip, polls/ politicians BS trading in between ...

Conference is pretty much over...

sisse

Give us a healthy crude slide (maybe tough to do given the season) and keep those 50/50 Brexit polls coming, maybe we can finally see some risk-off sentiment setting in and volatility returns.....currently we are in the flattest stock market ever seen