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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #19,641
  • May 29, 2016 6:08pm May 29, 2016 6:08pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} I was trying to gauge moment / depth / projection. A general rule I have says at least 2 consecutive bars and a 38.6 retrace of S/T order flow. It sort of applied but looked like one 2 moves to me instead of 3. That is a beautiful chart. seen some of it. tried to use a retracement harmonic move after yellen talk but it went a little further then expected
Yeah it's tough to say.

In this scenario I'd probably take both versions into account but I'd more than likely stay out and wait for more info vs trying to force a trade.

Looking at the PA in this example it's just a pain in the ass to figure out what to do, better to wait until things are a little bit more clear haha.
  • #19,642
  • May 30, 2016 2:34am May 30, 2016 2:34am
Quoting DizzleFX
Short EU for the second time on the same swing. My entry was right before U.S. news release and it cost me, but it didn't change my bias so jumped back in on another short. Currently at BE but down -12 for the day. {image}
Nice one !!! Had the same trade
Even though I walk through the darkest valley, I will fear no evil
  • #19,643
  • May 30, 2016 2:44am May 30, 2016 2:44am
Guys, stupid question as I am trying to get the hang of the YM. How do I figure out which one is the latest: is it 03-16 or 06-16 or is there a 07-16 now? My 06-16 moving very slow, that's why I am asking.
  • #19,644
  • May 30, 2016 5:46am May 30, 2016 5:46am
Quoting stavrogijn
Guys, stupid question as I am trying to get the hang of the YM. How do I figure out which one is the latest: is it 03-16 or 06-16 or is there a 07-16 now? My 06-16 moving very slow, that's why I am asking.
Go to the CME to know your instrument:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-dow.html

Current front month is June 2016. Market is slow because it is a US holiday today:
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar.html
  • #19,645
  • May 30, 2016 9:55am May 30, 2016 9:55am
Quoting crixus
{quote} Go to the CME to know your instrument: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-dow.html Current front month is June 2016. Market is slow because it is a US holiday today: http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar.html
Thank you, I was a bit confused. That cleared it up.
  • #19,646
  • Edited 4:13am May 31, 2016 3:21am | Edited 4:13am
Morning Traders !!!

Yesterday was really nothing to post 3 BE and thats it. But today market is rock star

GU M3, EXP -NSL, was looking to get 20 points, but it went sown like rocket, closed 42 points

UC M3, Exp-NSH, hit my target 161, closed 30 points

AU M3, EXP -NSL, still running, looking for 1 to 1 move, target 16 points
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Even though I walk through the darkest valley, I will fear no evil
  • #19,647
  • May 31, 2016 3:24am May 31, 2016 3:24am
Quoting stavrogijn
Guys, stupid question as I am trying to get the hang of the YM. How do I figure out which one is the latest: is it 03-16 or 06-16 or is there a 07-16 now? My 06-16 moving very slow, that's why I am asking.
What is 7-16 ? expiration every 3 month, March June and next September
Even though I walk through the darkest valley, I will fear no evil
  • #19,648
  • May 31, 2016 7:22am May 31, 2016 7:22am
YM

LTF up and now STF up as well.

Expectation NSH.

ON session net short so squeeze watch in back of mind.
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  • #19,649
  • May 31, 2016 7:35am May 31, 2016 7:35am
Quoting monocor
Morning Traders !!! Yesterday was really nothing to post 3 BE and thats it. But today market is rock star GU M3, EXP -NSL, was looking to get 20 points, but it went sown like rocket, closed 42 points UC M3, Exp-NSH, hit my target 161, closed 30 points AU M3, EXP -NSL, still running, looking for 1 to 1 move, target 16 points {image} {image} {image}
These were beauties, nice job man!
  • #19,650
  • May 31, 2016 9:21am May 31, 2016 9:21am
Quoting monocor
{quote} What is 7-16 ? expiration every 3 month, March June and next September
I did not know that .
  • #19,651
  • May 31, 2016 11:30am May 31, 2016 11:30am
Quoting monocor
Morning Traders !!! Yesterday was really nothing to post 3 BE and thats it. But today market is rock star GU M3, EXP -NSL, was looking to get 20 points, but it went sown like rocket, closed 42 points UC M3, Exp-NSH, hit my target 161, closed 30 points AU M3, EXP -NSL, still running, looking for 1 to 1 move, target 16 points {image} {image} {image}
Gongrats monocor.

I ended on dow with incredible 0,6 points (hit of protected entry).
  • #19,652
  • May 31, 2016 11:43am May 31, 2016 11:43am
good morning

US30 - 89T

Looking to hop on the bear train. waiting for a 50-61.8 PB because of the weakened projection and bearish reaction on the previous PB.

edit PB's look to be harmonic

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  • #19,653
  • May 31, 2016 1:28pm May 31, 2016 1:28pm
YM -8

My analysis has been off all day, literally everything that I think should happen has been wrong. I've mainly stayed out because I don't have a good read but thought this was going to be a straightforward change of order flow, pullback, then run.

Anyone care to take a look and see where I went wrong in this?

I've yet to do much of a post-trade analysis, I'll do that when I get back from the gym later.
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  • #19,654
  • Edited 2:14pm May 31, 2016 1:47pm | Edited 2:14pm
Quoting jmezz
YM -8 My analysis has been off all day, literally everything that I think should happen has been wrong. I've mainly stayed out because I don't have a good read but thought this was going to be a straightforward change of order flow, pullback, then run. Anyone care to take a look and see where I went wrong in this? I've yet to do much of a post-trade analysis, I'll do that when I get back from the gym later. {image}
To be honest, on the tick chart I would have thought the same, but I loaded also the 15 min chart with some SMA's (). When looking at that chart it was more visible for me that it will go down . On the white line, there is some structure onto which the expectation happened.
I was a bit puzzled about the price action. Hence I ended with said 0.6 points.

@Mack: Good plan. I intended to go long, since I saw a small double bottom. However, I would have been kicked out (hopefully with a protected entry).
  • #19,655
  • May 31, 2016 3:41pm May 31, 2016 3:41pm
hey is anyone here using the Smoothed or Fixed Ratio money management? If so any thoughts on your experiences? thx and trade well
It's a dirty job but someone's gotta do it!
  • #19,656
  • May 31, 2016 3:43pm May 31, 2016 3:43pm
Quoting jmezz
YM -8 My analysis has been off all day, literally everything that I think should happen has been wrong. I've mainly stayed out because I don't have a good read but thought this was going to be a straightforward change of order flow, pullback, then run. Anyone care to take a look and see where I went wrong in this? I've yet to do much of a post-trade analysis, I'll do that when I get back from the gym later. {image}
I believe your set up was valid. Projection was decreasing and even stalled out. Bulls were able to print a S/T nsh. The swings momentum was could except that it seemed labourered. ( A lot of small gains / struggle). The only thing I would of asked for in your situation is a candle close in the range or above some of those rejections. I know this gives you a expensive entry but if it didnt follow up and close below the whit line it would of invalidated your entry anyway and you could of, arguable, put your stops there and with TP set to 1:1 (not toilet paper haha) , R:R would of been satisfied.

Honestly tho, I personally was only looking for shorts. overall day was bearish. My charts a quit a bit slower then yours tho.

Even tho my analysis was spot on, I wasn't able to capitalize. I agree with evocpr19, PA was tricky. I was expecting a little more bullish reaction before reversing. I seen the rotation (red arrow) but I stuck on my bias of a little more bullish.


I did make a trade at the end that busted even. I made a huge mistake and tried to chase the move but was able to exit at BE.

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  • #19,657
  • May 31, 2016 4:15pm May 31, 2016 4:15pm
Quoting jmezz
YM -8 My analysis has been off all day, literally everything that I think should happen has been wrong. I've mainly stayed out because I don't have a good read but thought this was going to be a straightforward change of order flow, pullback, then run. Anyone care to take a look and see where I went wrong in this? I've yet to do much of a post-trade analysis, I'll do that when I get back from the gym later. {image}
YM trade dissection - notes on chart.

If I drew everything out like this at the time of the trade I'm not sure I would have entered. I don't draw everything out anymore but maybe I should go back to doing that.

If you guys see anything that I missed please feel free to comment.
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  • #19,658
  • May 31, 2016 4:42pm May 31, 2016 4:42pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} To be honest, on the tick chart I would have thought the same, but I loaded also the 15 min chart with some SMA's (). When looking at that chart it was more visible for me that it will go down . On the white line, there is some structure onto which the expectation happened. I was a bit puzzled about the price action. Hence I ended with said 0.6 points. @Mack: Good plan. I intended to go long, since I saw a small double bottom. However, I would have been kicked out (hopefully with a protected entry).
Sup evo.

Lol at the smiley you used after admitting you used SMA's. Good thing Mr. Pip is taking a vacation from this thread and he can't see that haha.

Can you elaborate on what you mean by saying, "On the white line, there is some structure onto which the expectation happened?" I'm not entirely clear on what you're referring to.

Quoting Mack2013
{quote} I believe your set up was valid. Projection was decreasing and even stalled out. Bulls were able to print a S/T nsh. The swings momentum was could except that it seemed labourered. ( A lot of small gains / struggle). The only thing I would of asked for in your situation is a candle close in the range or above some of those rejections. I know this gives you a expensive entry but if it didnt follow up and close below the whit line it would of invalidated your entry anyway and you could of, arguable, put your stops there and with TP set to...
Thank you for the response Mack.

You bring up an amazing point with regard to a candle close above the rejections. TBH I will usually wait for a close above the trigger candle (in this scenario it's the hammer candle) and then take an entry. Almost embarrassed to admit that I wasn't really thinking of those rejection wicks, once I saw that hammer mixed with the fact that the expectation was a NSH, I went super aggressive and entered with a limit order 1 tick above the close of the hammer.

I had done some reading about entering aggressively on limits over the weekend however maybe I'm not ready for them just yet, as had I stuck to my normal entry protocol I would not have even entered this trade.

You also bring up another great point with only looking at shorts. I tend to follow this 144tick and I am finding that sometimes I'm losing sight of the big picture. It's easy to see what looks to be a trend change when in actuality it's not. I keep playing with the 144 and 233 trying to find out which signals I like better but maybe I should back it up to the 233 for a little while and see if I can cut down on the confusion.

Ironically enough, look what did end up happening just after my failure lol.

Oh well.
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  • #19,659
  • May 31, 2016 9:51pm May 31, 2016 9:51pm
Quoting jmezz
YM -8 My analysis has been off all day, literally everything that I think should happen has been wrong. I've mainly stayed out because I don't have a good read but thought this was going to be a straightforward change of order flow, pullback, then run. Anyone care to take a look and see where I went wrong in this? I've yet to do much of a post-trade analysis, I'll do that when I get back from the gym later. {image}
I also think your analysis was accurate. I'm pretty sure that I would have taken the same trade. After the bulls made a nice run up, a weak pullback is what I would have expected, and your entry candle did show lots of rejection. As long as you made a case for entry, and stuck to your rules.
Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!
  • #19,660
  • Jun 1, 2016 4:32am Jun 1, 2016 4:32am
Quoting jmezz
{quote} YM trade dissection - notes on chart. If I drew everything out like this at the time of the trade I'm not sure I would have entered. I don't draw everything out anymore but maybe I should go back to doing that. If you guys see anything that I missed please feel free to comment. {image}
I like complex correction, like this one, could be a nice trade

NSH will be when price will go above complex correction
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Even though I walk through the darkest valley, I will fear no evil
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