The Really Useless Thread

First interesting comments from Yellen ... nothing particular new but confirming the strong economic outlook and view in US macro numbers...employment ok, and a bunch of macro technicalities soft ...nothing new ...Inflation on track expectation the same ...

...watcohut euro taking the handle down ...!!!

sisse

Live J.Y

http://www.cnbc.com/watch-live/partn...&autoPlay=true

Edit check new link

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=592680

...inline with expectations comments about rates. We wont see more than 2 hikes this year pretty much a done deal ...and thats prolly it for the week...

sisse

Reflections from Noobville: After these recent exercises on the thread (and a couple years chasing pa over hills through tunnels and down a few deep holes) it's become pretty clear to me that I can draw my magic lines on a chart and become convinced that they are a real descriptions of what's likely to occur. The more lines I draw, the more future reversal points and future s/r levels are born. Then I go through a vetting process of these lines 'these two match up, therefore they are validated'....'price reacted to one line in this series, therfore price will react strongest at the strongest line in the series'. My method is reinforced when my trades work, and when they don't, well, it's back to the chart to draw more lines and discover (invent) the hole in my vetting process or that series of lines I just can't believe I missed. Rinse, repeat. Ive been watching vets succeed consistently using methods like I've been trying to emulate and ignoring this plain fact: What I think is a method is simply a tool to be used within a frame of reference that reflects expertise, perspective and experience that I just don't have at this stage. Much like assuming that because Monet used a brush, that as long as I have the same brush in my hand I will be able to paint like Monet.


I haven't lost much money doing this. In fact I've made somewhat decent returns for two reasons I believe. One is luck. (insert broken clock proverb). The other is the fact that I have balls the size of garden peas when it comes to risking my capital. Not risk averse in any way. Just cheap. But my cheapness has saved me from many of my own questionable ideas. In business and now in trading. I work too hard for my cash to lose it all cutting my teeth in a game I barely grasp yet.
But it doesnt matter that i have some returns with this method because what I dont have is consistency and until I get some semblance of that I'm flipping coins.
So...flat in FX market until I find a way to understand flow and recognize opportunities in an entirely different way than I've done to date. Dont yet know what that way will be or if I'll find it at all.
By the way, I wouldn't expect anyone to give a hoot about this mushy monologue or any Internet stranger's revelations. Just wanted to type it and post it so it's burned into my cortex and for my own record. So hopefully sometime in the distant future I can look back at it from my own frame of reference and say that's the day I wiped the slate off and began to start to begin starting to almost figure this shit out.

dovish...I bet they whiff in June....

Second round of closes coming from energies and commodities.

--> Only important update is from GOLD. Confirming short term outlook sell but more importantly we have pretty much set the low of this year. Brexit is the only risk play that will confirm a hard mid term floor.

After that we are set for extended chop zone in the mid term. I will keep Gold on the trading workspace until FED/Breixit after that is an instrument to discard for the rest of the year...

--> Oil fighting hard for a break $49.5x and is too close to call. It will be settle with Opec next week...

sisse

I don't think she was dovish for June. Actually very inline with expectations and macro numbers. What was v. clear is that we wont see a domino of 3, 4 hikes this year. That is pretty much confirmed today.

You will see the odds for more than 2 hikes this year plummeting to single digits in the upcoming days ...

sisse

I disagree just a little bit. Do you think is a common sense, to rate hike just one week before a big risk event like Brexit referendum? Although I think the result will be a NO.

Time to start wrapping up the pending conversations starting with the last one as markets has spoken ...

--> Result 3A

+++ Simple exercise to start exploring the basic of Fundamentals +++

How basic Expectations Work

All welcome to jump in ....

Question:

What do you think is the expectations for the upcoming GDP news and how do you think the flow in the Euro should work out:
1. Better than expected
2. Worst than expected
3. Nothing new
4. I don't care. Expectations, news and FA mumbojumbo are just for suckers....

Options for the Flow

a. Direct impact -> Good/bad news = Stronger/weaker Dollar = Euro down/up
b. Indirect impact -> Buy the rumour sell the fact. Good news = Sell the news = Euro up / or the opposite
​c. No clue/I think is irrelevant.

--> A couple of tips for those following and those who got the flow part wrong (guessing/knowing the right numbers is not really important for this topic right now):

1. You need to recognise where are the markets expectations before a news. Markets were heavily aligned (equities rallying, dollar flying, Gold down, etc) in one direction via June hikes expectations.
   1. When markets are aligned heavy in one direction. A normal report that CANNOT change that much from expectations (GDP second reading is not really something that could fluctuate outside of the mean) its uneventful/just continuation in 90% of the cases...
   2. The only way to make a flow against the direction will be a SHORT-CIRCUIT in the number. A massive Undershoot in this case, etc as it will caught market in the wrong side...

   
   In simple words, don't overlook whats going on around the markets even if you DON'T trade them and more importantly DO NOT BE the SUCKER trying to outsmart THE WHOLE WORLD with all asset classes on the other side betting against it on a soft news.
   

Keep it simple and common sense first. This simple lesson will not only avoid you stupid positions during reports but more importantly will allow you to start developing a 'sense' for the markets that can be use and translate it in tradable decisions in your trading plan....

I hope it helps and trigger the first idea about basic expectations and FA in trading ...

sisse

Wonder if we'll tag 1.1080 before the close

would rather close above 1.1112 and deal with this particular zone next week. Under 1.1112 would be a less than desireable spot to close in a 3 day weekend

Sounds good to me. Cast my vote for the double whammy. No hikes (june), no brexit- EU 1.17xx test

Happy memorial weekend for those of you that observe it

it is truly a golden time.....not a bear to be seen....blue skies and sunshine.....

You have officially become the perma-bull of the thread ....'perma' traders usually don't last that long around as they get too emotional attach to their views ...just keep a close eye on the FED next June as you will need some help to see 1.17xx in the current circumstances and nearly a miracle of factors to reach your 1.24xx this year ...

GL and enjoy the weekend. Here, staying until the close for TA reasons as usual when key M or Q areas are in play ...

sisse

sisse,

...and hopefully a recap of all your questions and our answers from some of the exercises and examples.

Third round of closes.

Nearly to the 'tick' as expected since the news S&P 2100.xx for the long weekend and key close.

US equities held steady with 2090.xx taken unlocking a real chance for an exhaustion leg to take ATH. A tiny push above last Nov highs for a sharp, fast and manic leg in (2185.xx ???) and out ATH.... only air and magic lines above (as usual in case we trade above ATH in any market) so dusting from the TA chart tool box the extensions in case of a break.

As long as equities hold not much to see so same levels and same outlooks...

In my case, it doesn't make any sense neither justify the risk over a long weekend to go beyond the original map in the current trade , clearing final target in US Equities before the close and flat as pancake until further data ...

sisse

Same with GOLD. We couldn't take the handle today by an inch so applying 'don't be a dick for a tick' rule. Clearing all and flat a handful of points before final target (1209.xx) as I am not interested in holding Gold over the Holiday.

sisse

More importantly for the FX board. Dollar is going to hold the break back the KEY 94.4x unlocking one more time 102.xx and 109.4x and making 96.17 the rain maker (flip mid term/long term map) and momentum line for FED/Brexit June and beyond. A break above in the upcoming weeks will also set a hard long term bottom in the Green 91.8x ...

Key close in Dollar and the FX board maps look already set for the second half of the year ...

sisse

Not really much to update in the Currency front for the close. With Dollar alone we have more than enough info to digest and trade for the foreseeable future (and prolly the rest of the year).

--> Putting EJ and GJ on the trading workspace for June while leaving UJ on the back for the next few days until the last jitters from Brexit enter in full motion. CAD playing out nicely for those in from the highs and it will be settle with OIL next week.

--> Finally Sterling that it looks ready to start a soft and choppy descending on inertia as we approach the Vote. Expecting to find limited moves and support short term and not enter in panic (unless polls show brexit gaining ground).

--> Its going to be a choppy move down for a a couple of weeks but changing short term outlook in GU from neutral to soft sell until further data from the Referendum front.

--> Finally, Euro. Uneventful close with nothing to see an moving as collateral of equities. As long as Equities hold and Brexit is far, there is nothing new to see ....

On the update. We have some winners as I am closing Iteration 7. Well done all that traded (I know a few) and well done all bears in the call. Outlook Sell / You trade inside out ...I hope it helped for those who were struggling to see the forest for the trees before charts unfold ...

--> Did I miss a trend? ...yes you did was the answer

--> Applying the same basic trade management principle I apply to my live trades We have giving all the reasonable time in the world including the in between reports and the key close. 1.109x is probably going to be tested quickly on the weekend open. Common sense, 'don't be a dick for a tick' applies. There is no point of holding over a holiday weekend over a handful of ticks left in the map traded ...

--> However, iteration 8 remains open why? Because the trade was made on a different map, with different risk in place and with different expectations in play ...we'll wrap it early next week.

++++ Quick Call 7 (Final update ) ++++

Did I miss a trend?

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.110x (total time 6 days 0 hours)

-> LMT BUY 1.129x -> TP1 => 1.135x | TP1 => 1.149x | STP => 1.123x | max r:r -=> 4:1

Earleone

hoom

TuTang

No touch (till W close) | 1.139x or 1.119x | max r:r -=> 4:1

suntan

gazpacho

Fadhl

PAStalker

Vorex

workingforex

eborn

-> LMT SELL 1.129x -> TP1 => 1.123x [check] | TP2 => 1.109x [check before target] | STP => 1.135x | max r:r -=> 4:1 / 4:0

clayjay

chester123

chronical

IMARICH1

mayafx

goosebone

sanvulture

CommercialB

Oshomac [out 1.123x]

sisse

officially? Hardly. Ive stated what would change my view .... sisse i was a bull back in January
Im sure you havent forgotten our conversation back then (linked). I didnt say 1.247x this year!! I said 1.274x before 0.8xxx. Anyways, suppose Ill just shut up about it until the cards fall. Happy holiday!