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AUD/USD

  • #97,381
  • May 24, 2016 2:15am May 24, 2016 2:15am
As it may appear I just joined this community, I have been studying these threads for 6 years on this site. Some weeks I win, some weeks I lose. But come Friday evening USA time, I know what I did wrong or right. What, "Nuggets" to journal for future trades. I chose this Aud/Usd thread to make my presence, is because I just could not keep trading without saying something.

Do not misunderstand Me, whn I say, there has been some great analysis and presentation of executed trades and orders........but what I truly have seen that lacks, which I feel is so important is this:

Looking back through the recent post (24 to 48 hours) I saw soooo many comments about it will rise because of this graph, or that graph. Very few, if any, mentioned the RBA speech tonight. I post this for the scalpers and grinders....

How could this have been left out of the formula gentlemen? Hope? Acute site only on technical levels?

For me, I love Fibs & Moving averages. But I, like a lot here, are not looking to play against The Big Dogs. Meaning, get in, get out, get ahead.

72% of the post in the last four days did not mention the effect of tonights Aud speech (Upon an already weekly very bearish truth.)

I guess I wrote this post as a question and a plea. Why do not watch the calendar news? And if You do, do think technical levels will always win over fundamental news, trends, and 24 hour momentum? If so, lets talk. I am trying to combine the two. Because I knew for sure this speech tonight was going to swing the aud/usd 30 pips either way. BUT, I can not find mention of that anywhere in the last 48 hours of post.

Why?
  • #97,382
  • May 24, 2016 2:23am May 24, 2016 2:23am
looks like 7065 coming into view today/tomorrow
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #97,383
  • May 24, 2016 2:29am May 24, 2016 2:29am
And Gentleman, from around the World, as I wrote the last post, Aud down 20 more pips. I am saying to You, especially if You are new to trdaing, YOU MUST: Read all news of countries that are major players affecting YOUR trade. (As tonight, very solid reports of China being 3.7 trillion in debt. THAT affects the Aud.) And, as mentioned, no person her wrote about or discussed the speech tonight???? How is that possible? As You see, it dropped it now 50+ pips.

All the graphs I see are slightly different. If You are truly scalping, You have to read and educate Yourself on ALL THE NEWS. The grapghs to me are "Green Lights" and "Red lights."

Best wishes to all, for We are all at Sea...
  • #97,384
  • May 24, 2016 2:39am May 24, 2016 2:39am
Quoting SInatra7373
And Gentleman, from around the World, as I wrote the last post, Aud down 20 more pips. I am saying to You, especially if You are new to trdaing, YOU MUST: Read all news of countries that are major players affecting YOUR trade. (As tonight, very solid reports of China being 3.7 trillion in debt. THAT affects the Aud.) And, as mentioned, no person her wrote about or discussed the speech tonight???? How is that possible? As You see, it dropped it now 50+ pips. All the graphs I see are slightly different. If You are truly scalping, You have to read...
Do you read ALL THE NEWS? I must be new to that trdaing.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #97,385
  • May 24, 2016 3:13am May 24, 2016 3:13am
Quoting SInatra7373
As it may appear I just joined this community, I have been studying these threads for 6 years on this site. Some weeks I win, some weeks I lose. But come Friday evening USA time, I know what I did wrong or right. What, "Nuggets" to journal for future trades. I chose this Aud/Usd thread to make my presence, is because I just could not keep trading without saying something. Do not misunderstand Me, whn I say, there has been some great analysis and presentation of executed trades and orders........but what I truly have seen that lacks, which I feel...
Because 99% of traders on here dont take fundamentals into consideration.

They think the charts effect a nations economy, they think the charts is what drive a current in a particular direction and they think charts influence monetary and fiscal policy and the ins and outs of business ect...

What I have found is that FF is full of whining losers and will blame market makers manipulating the market when ever they loose.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,386
  • May 24, 2016 3:24am May 24, 2016 3:24am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Because 99% of traders on here dont take fundamentals into consideration. They think the charts effect a nations economy, they think the charts is what drive a current in a particular direction and they think charts influence monetary and fiscal policy and the ins and outs of business ect... What I have found is that FF is full of whining losers and will blame market makers manipulating the market when ever they loose.
I believe most tech traders think charts reflect fundamentals, not determine them
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #97,387
  • May 24, 2016 3:34am May 24, 2016 3:34am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Because 99% of traders on here dont take fundamentals into consideration. They think the charts effect a nations economy, they think the charts is what drive a current in a particular direction and they think charts influence monetary and fiscal policy and the ins and outs of business ect... What I have found is that FF is full of whining losers and will blame market makers manipulating the market when ever they loose.
its actually an interesting situations that works both ways in a cyclical fashion. A currencies value (reflected in charts) actually does have a significant impact on its economy, hence swings, booms, busts. Price effects economics as economics effects price
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #97,388
  • May 24, 2016 4:10am May 24, 2016 4:10am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Because 99% of traders on here dont take fundamentals into consideration. They think the charts effect a nations economy, they think the charts is what drive a current in a particular direction and they think charts influence monetary and fiscal policy and the ins and outs of business ect... What I have found is that FF is full of whining losers and will blame market makers manipulating the market when ever they loose.
​I think that most traders here don't use long term trend trading strategies, let alone currency investing, so they really don't care about long term economical perspectives.
  • #97,389
  • May 24, 2016 4:13am May 24, 2016 4:13am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} ​I think that most traders here don't use long term trend trading strategies, let alone currency investing, so they really don't care about long term economical perspectives.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,390
  • May 24, 2016 4:29am May 24, 2016 4:29am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} ​I think that most traders here don't use long term trend trading strategies, let alone currency investing, so they really don't care about long term economical perspectives.
  • #97,391
  • May 24, 2016 4:31am May 24, 2016 4:31am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} ​I think that most traders here don't use long term trend trading strategies, let alone currency investing, so they really don't care about long term economical perspectives.
*Thumbs up smiley*
  • #97,392
  • May 24, 2016 4:41am May 24, 2016 4:41am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} ​I think that most traders here don't use long term trend trading strategies, let alone currency investing, so they really don't care about long term economical perspectives.
That's the reason many take retracement setups. They ignore that it's just a retracement after strong move and then jump in only to come and blame brokers for their mistakes
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: 16.1%
  • #97,393
  • May 24, 2016 4:44am May 24, 2016 4:44am
So where do people see the price moving to over the next month or so?
  • #97,394
  • May 24, 2016 4:45am May 24, 2016 4:45am
if Aust drop rates and USA raise them;
well lower makes sense
  • #97,395
  • May 24, 2016 4:55am May 24, 2016 4:55am
Quoting galvcore
So where do people see the price moving to over the next month or so?
long term is down and my strategy is dont go long until it hits low .60's.

Short on highs.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,396
  • May 24, 2016 7:24am May 24, 2016 7:24am
Quoting SInatra7373
As it may appear I just joined this community, I have been studying these threads for 6 years on this site. Some weeks I win, some weeks I lose. But come Friday evening USA time, I know what I did wrong or right. What, "Nuggets" to journal for future trades. I chose this Aud/Usd thread to make my presence, is because I just could not keep trading without saying something. Do not misunderstand Me, whn I say, there has been some great analysis and presentation of executed trades and orders........but what I truly have seen that lacks, which I feel...
Whilst I'm not a scalper and aren't sure what a grinder is so probably aren't your target audience, I assume you are referring to the RBA Gov Stevens calendar item which when looking at the detail reveals he was speaking to the trans-tasman business circle in Sydney. Firstly 30 pips for me is not that significant and whilst I watch calendar news as well as technicals I only look at calendar news considered red. Whilst this item was classified Red I personally thought it lower impact than the monthly RBA rates meeting when formal policy is discussed as opposed to today's event that is more looking for 'morsels from the table'. Think of it another way, RBA have occasionally revealed their expected valuation of exchange rate and last I heard it was 70c or lower. Are they going to say anything today that deviated significantly from that? Probably not and I had other things on today so had less time for trading. I've been predominantly short for some months (which meant I had large losing positions for much of March & April) but am currently looking for a retrace (preferrably 100+ pips)to reenter (as opposed to some who wait for a break below support to go short).

Edit - RBA speech didn't go totally unreferenced on here, Lasty commented on here post 97375
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #97,397
  • May 24, 2016 3:24pm May 24, 2016 3:24pm
Quoting stulic
I can't understand when people try to scalp a huge falling candle for 10-20 pip retrace with a big position, I mean I did those mistakes in my early years and blew one or two accounts like that. Sure sometimes it works out if you can manage your greed, and one day you'll swimming in pips while another spike will blow your heart. Not worth at all when the trend provides pips galore, but to each it's own. I do buy double size against my position at times but even that doesn't work out more than half the times. Now I'll be waiting for 7150 for a 20...
Oh boy missed my TP by a tick while I was asleep...
Anyway closing now for +30 I think after Sydney and Asia opening we'll see further downside targeted while 72 should cap it for now.
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Don't get mad, get even!
  • #97,398
  • May 24, 2016 6:36pm May 24, 2016 6:36pm
Quoting stulic
{quote} Oh boy missed my TP by a tick while I was asleep... Anyway closing now for +30 I think after Sydney and Asia opening we'll see further downside targeted while 72 should cap it for now. {image}
Hey man. Can you explain what was the logic behind your buy position, please.
  • #97,399
  • May 24, 2016 7:34pm May 24, 2016 7:34pm
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} Hey man. Can you explain what was the logic behind your buy position, please.
Simple. That fib combined with a 50 level. Too often it retraces off round numbers and 50's.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #97,400
  • May 24, 2016 9:01pm May 24, 2016 9:01pm
Sometimes, all we need is one naked daily chart to do our analysis.

Start of 2016 - Mid April 2016 - Up trend.
Mid April 2016 - Present - Down Trend.

Question here will be, is it going to fall like how it went up continuously?

We have reached a zone full of confluence support (some call it the congestion area) *between .7100- .7150*

Place your bets.

I'll show my trade result after i take profit. That will take awhile but i will keep all posted on my resultant trade.
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