Pip Diddy's Chart Analysis

I’m very bullish on this pair. Support on this cart is found on its pink 50 EMA, purple 200 EMA, as well its blue ascending trendline. It looks like its battling with its blue 100 EMA right now. If the pair can rise above its more recent high of .7648, I see this as buying momentum returning and I’m going to jump on the bull bandwagon and buy this pair. I will buy at .7650. My stop will be below the purple EMA at .7570. My profit target .7800 which is near the pair’s swing high on the daily chart and where the dollah dollah bills be at.

Still bouncing around. Last night, I said I would sell this pair if it closed below 112.00 and target 111.50. While it did manage to close below 112.00, I did not take the trade due to the shape of the trigger candle (highlighted in pink). With its long lower shadow or wick, a nice looking hammer formed. This tells me there’s a huge possibility of price to continue to rise even though it close below the 112.00 support. Due to this risk, I stayed out. And it’s a good thing because my predictions came true. The pair rallied right afterwards back up to surprise surprise 112.50.

The pair has closed above 112.50 and has been hovering near that level. I’m going to buy this pair now at market price at 112.60. My stop will be placed right below the low of the candle that closed above 112.50 (marked in blue). The stop price is 112.25. My profit target off course will be 113.00.

Last week, I had predicted that this pair would fall down to its blue 100 EMA and then bounce back up. Well I was wrong. Price fell to the 1.2720s level before bouncing back up. Looking at this chart, I have a feeling this pair is simply taking a breather before rising back up to 1.2970. Immediate support is at 1.2900 which was previously resistance. Because the pair did break and close above this resistance,

I’m actually looking to buy this pair. Since I believe price might weaken a little before the rally resumes, I’m going to go long at 1.2900. My stop will be 1.2870 which is right below its next support at 1.2975. My profit target will be 1.2970.

The .618 Fibonacci retracement seems to be a strong support level. I also see hidden bullish divergence. Notice how price has made a higher low while the oscillator has made a lower low. This usually means the pair will head up.

Look how the pink 50 EMA and .500 Fibonacci retracement level are acting as resistance. If the pair can overcome this area, I like my chances of the pair headed back up. I'm going to buy at 1.2850. My stop will be 1.2800. My first profit target will be 1.2900. I will take profit on my half of my position there. My second profit target will be 1.3000.

On this chart, the pair managed to close below its purple 200 EMA and its old support at 1.2690. Price looks to have consolidated at the moment. I think a short rally occur before the pair continues it trip downward to 1.2500. I’m going to short the pair at 1.2700. If you look back on the daily chart, the .236 Fibonacci retracement is at 1.2700 which is resistance. On this chart, because they’re so close to each, I see resistance around the area of the 200 EMA and its old support of 1.2690. This is why I want to short at 1.2700. I’m going to place my stop above the high of the breakout candle (marked in yellow) at 1.2770. My profit target will be 1.2500. This is a classic “buy the dips, sell the rallies” trade. In this case, I’m “selling the rally”.

We have a breakout here! The pair has managed to close below its support. I’m going to wait for the pair to pull back up to test resistance and short at 1.8370. My stop will be placed above the high of the breakout candle at 1.8445. My profit target will be 1.8255 where the cash money is.

How did I get my profit target? Notice how the pair was trading in a sideway channel. The “width” of the channel is about 115 pips. My rationale is when this pair breaks out of its channel, its move will be as big as the “width”. In this cause, support is around 1.8370. I simply subtract 115 pips to find my profit target which is 1.8255.

If this pair closes below 115.50, I’m going to sell. My stop will be placed 1 pip above the high of the breakout candle. For example, if this current candle closes below 115.00, its high is 115.72, so my stop loss will be 115.73. My profit target will be 115.00.

I’m going short at market price at 115.50. My stop loss will be above resistance (marked in purple) at 115.85. My profit target will be 115.00.

Notice how the pair has been trading in 60 pip wide horizontal channels. I believe this pair is a little overbought at the moment and will probably weaken before resuming its uptrend.

I'm going to buy at 1.2780. My stop loss will be 1.2710 which is below its next support 1.2720. My profit target will be 1.2900. I will move my stop to breakeven once 1.2850 is reached.

On Tuesday, July 18, I wrote:

"I will buy at 1.2500. My stop will be 1.2400. My initial profit target will be 1.2900. This will be an intermediate timeframe trade so I plan on adjusting my profit target and stops if the trade is triggered and I don't get stopped out. Stay tuned."

On Wednesday, July 26, I moved my stop to 1.2550.

I am now moving my stop up to 1.2700 which locks in 200 pips. I'm still targeting 1.2900.

Check out the hidden bullish divergence here. Price has made a higher low while the oscillator has made a lower low. I'm going to buy at 116.00. My stop will be 115.70 which is below the recent spike low. My profit target will be 116.50. As long as support can hold at the 200 SMA on the daily chart, I think this trade will work. If support fails, I'm in trouble.

I tried that hidden divergence thing many years ago, and that's how I got burned.

Trading is all about probabilities my friend. I identified my edge (identifying strong support at 116.00, hidden bullish divergence, etc.) and I placed my bet. If I win, I win. If I lose, I lose. It's only one trade and I will still have lots of trading capital left. Fortunately, the pair went in the money above my risk (30 pips) so I was able to move my stop to breakeven and was stopped out as a scratch an hour later after CPI came out.

Sometimes hidden divergence works, sometimes it won't. It certainly won't work if a major news release comes out. My view was CPI would come out high which is dollar bullish and the presence of this hidden divergence supported this view (guess). I rolled the dice and was wrong. Bummer but oh well, on to the next trade. I assume when you say "burned", you lost a lot of money. If this is the case, it sounds like you were risking way too much and should've traded smaller. I'm sorry that "getting burned" was the lesson you learned during your trade, but would I take this trade setup again? Yes I would. I saw my edge, evaluated the risk, decided the risk was acceptable (well within my money managment controls), and I pulled the trigger without hesitation. It's the only way to get money from the market.

Based on the shooting star formation at the height of today's rally which was also near its last recent highs, I believe this move has peaked. I'm shorting market at 116.50. My stop will be 116.75 and profit target will be 116.00. This is a short-term trade.

Yesterday, I talked about a longer-term trade. I had shorted at 116.00 and said to add another short position at 116.50, which I did. For this longer-term trade, I now have two lots short with both stop losses at 117.00 and both proft targets at 114.00

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Notice how the price has remained bouyant above the blue 100 EMA. I see the 100 EMA and the .382 Fibonacci retracement as support. I'm going to buy market price at 1.8870. My stop will be 1.8830 which is right below both support levels. I have my eyes set on 1.9140 but it might be a choppy ride getting there. If this trade moves in my direction I will monitor it and adjust my profit target if necessary.

Hello. Your chart analysis and position style trading is interesting. I am just learning about the forex market and have not begun using chart or technical analysis ...yet. I am interested in learning how to use the same charts you are using. Thanks.

Hey Pip Daddy, you reckon CADJPY will reach 78.20 before 80.50? It's at 79.95 right now. I think I'll go short here. Eagerly waiting your reply.

Hmmm, ye.. He might not respond to your comment , look at the date of thread , and his last activity .