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USD/RUB

  • #641
  • May 19, 2016 10:47am May 19, 2016 10:47am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I am interested to see the end of the week. In my mind there are a lot of variables that play important roles and will dictate the situation. At the moment the picture is not clear. First, USD Index run to 95.50 but came back and now it is at old resistance, now support 95.20. As it has been pointed in another thread there are reasons to believe that this was the upper boundary in the channel and if it fails there that could bring USD index down to 92. Secondly, oil went down to my support levels at 46.80s with an extension to 60s and is...
It will be interesting days. USD bulls are in control.
I attach the chart with USD/RUB and Crude oil overlay. As we see. The last two days correlation came back.
As you see over time it pretty much looks like an mirror
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDRUBDaily.png Size: 36 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #642
  • May 19, 2016 10:55am May 19, 2016 10:55am
I add a 1 Hour chart too from just now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDRUBH1.png Size: 57 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #643
  • May 19, 2016 10:56am May 19, 2016 10:56am
Earleone nice chart in there!
  • #644
  • May 19, 2016 11:29am May 19, 2016 11:29am
Quoting asgcorp
Earleone nice chart in there!
Thank you

I also post the daily chart to show correlation between USD Index and oil. ( I do not have USD Index and USD/RUB with same broker so I can unfortunately not make that chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXM6Daily.png Size: 58 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #645
  • May 20, 2016 2:51am May 20, 2016 2:51am
Today support levels for USD/RUB I see 66.18 and 65.80 on the hourly, 66.06 on 4H, and resistance 66.70 on the weekly which will be important tonight for whoever is trading short USD/RUB.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #646
  • May 20, 2016 10:41am May 20, 2016 10:41am
Quoting manosk
Today support levels for USD/RUB I see 66.18 and 65.80 on the hourly, 66.06 on 4H, and resistance 66.70 on the weekly which will be important tonight for whoever is trading short USD/RUB.
So according to my charts, USD/RUB closed exactly on the points discussed. Just under weekly resistance at 66.71, under H4 resistance at 66.88 and daily 50 MA at 66.90. On the weekly chart, the most important in my opinion, it is the fourth week below the 50 MA although this time it was really an offensive that got barely rejected.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #647
  • May 24, 2016 12:35pm May 24, 2016 12:35pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} So according to my charts, USD/RUB closed exactly on the points discussed. Just under weekly resistance at 66.71, under H4 resistance at 66.88 and daily 50 MA at 66.90. On the weekly chart, the most important in my opinion, it is the fourth week below the 50 MA although this time it was really an offensive that got barely rejected.
The average oil price comfortable for the CB of the RF is 48 USD per a barrel.
The average RUB/USD price level is 66.
Why? Becaurse 48x66 is aproximately 3200 RUB.
Directly this price is the basis for Budget of the RF for this year.
That is why the CB is not interested in strengthening RUB at the current oil prices.

Best
D.P.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-05-24_20-27-07.jpg Size: 99 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-05-24_20-27-42.jpg Size: 103 KB
Hunting High and Low
  • #648
  • May 25, 2016 2:11am May 25, 2016 2:11am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} The average oil price comfortable for the CB of the RF is 48 USD per a barrel. The average RUB/USD price level is 66. Why? Becaurse 48x66 is aproximately 3200 RUB. Directly this price is the basis for Budget of the RF for this year. That is why the CB is not interested in strengthening RUB at the current oil prices. Best D.P. {image} {image}
I have to say that this makes sense. So the higher the oil price the lower USD/RUB can be. Where can we see what has been budgeted in by the RF govt as far as oil is concerned?
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #649
  • May 25, 2016 2:19am May 25, 2016 2:19am
Quoting manosk
{quote} So according to my charts, USD/RUB closed exactly on the points discussed. Just under weekly resistance at 66.71, under H4 resistance at 66.88 and daily 50 MA at 66.90. On the weekly chart, the most important in my opinion, it is the fourth week below the 50 MA although this time it was really an offensive that got barely rejected.
For anyone trading USD/RUB on the short side, the current area is a particularly tricky area with a lot of resistance/support levels especially on the H1 chart. One level is 65.86, another 65.81, a third 65.78 (100 HMA) finally the 200 HMA at 65.66. It needs force to slash through them. At the moment only the first level has been penetrated but already bounced off the second level. On the upside 66.18 will act as a strong resistance throughout the day.

The same tricky picture is evident in the 4H where you have convergence of a lot of MAs particularly the 50 and 100 at precisely 65.89. This confirms the view that it will take a strong move down to break clean off these support levels.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #650
  • May 25, 2016 3:07am May 25, 2016 3:07am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} The average oil price comfortable for the CB of the RF is 48 USD per a barrel. The average RUB/USD price level is 66. Why? Becaurse 48x66 is aproximately 3200 RUB. Directly this price is the basis for Budget of the RF for this year. That is why the CB is not interested in strengthening RUB at the current oil prices. Best D.P. {image} {image}
Do you know if anything changed in the repo rate since yesterday? My swap rate was lower and I dont know why.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #651
  • May 25, 2016 3:39am May 25, 2016 3:39am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Do you know if anything changed in the repo rate since yesterday? My swap rate was lower and I dont know why.
No changes in the swap rate with my broker .
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #652
  • May 25, 2016 3:41am May 25, 2016 3:41am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} No changes in the swap rate with my broker .
thanks for that. I got 15% less than usual last night
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #653
  • Edited 10:41am May 25, 2016 10:13am | Edited 10:41am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I have to say that this makes sense. So the higher the oil price the lower USD/RUB can be. Where can we see what has been budgeted in by the RF govt as far as oil is concerned?
I have not found the official paper yet. This prices were discussed on TV - I have heard about them before as well.
The price of RUB can be lower though if the price of Oil is about to be at the 50-60 area.

I have found the answer at http://www.sberometer.ru/tips/prognoz-usd-po-nefti.php
This site is of SBERBANK SIB.
This formula is calculated automatically.

A recent article is http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/71185
in order to confirm the above calculations.

As for Repo rate, it is still the same. No changes.

See it at http://moex.com/ru/markets/money/
The picture is below.

Best
D.P.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-05-25_18-27-28.jpg Size: 370 KB
Hunting High and Low
  • #654
  • May 25, 2016 10:36am May 25, 2016 10:36am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} I have not found the official paper yet. This prices were discussed on TV - I have heard about them before as well. The price of RUB can be lower though if the price of Oil is about to be at the 50-60 area. I have found the answer at http://www.sberometer.ru/tips/prognoz-usd-po-nefti.php This site is of SBERBANK SIB. This formula is calculated automatically. A recent article is http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/71185 in order to confirm the above calculations. As for Repo rate, it is still the same. No changes. Ses...
many thanks, great stuff
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #655
  • May 25, 2016 10:40am May 25, 2016 10:40am
Quoting manosk
{quote} many thanks, great stuff
As you can see that the RUB reasonable price should be lower then now.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #656
  • May 25, 2016 10:41am May 25, 2016 10:41am
Quoting manosk
{quote} For anyone trading USD/RUB on the short side, the current area is a particularly tricky area with a lot of resistance/support levels especially on the H1 chart. One level is 65.86, another 65.81, a third 65.78 (100 HMA) finally the 200 HMA at 65.66. It needs force to slash through them. At the moment only the first level has been penetrated but already bounced off the second level. On the upside 66.18 will act as a strong resistance throughout the day. The same tricky picture is evident in the 4H where you have convergence of a lot of MAs...
USD/RUB never fails to keep you busy. It broke all supports on the downside nicely in within one hour only to go back up in the course of the last 35 mins of trading and reclaim most of the "losses". On the hourly chart it broke all levels as discussed earlier but now stand only below 65.86 and 65.81. On the 4H it has cleared the 50 and 100 MA and now stands below them.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #657
  • May 25, 2016 10:44am May 25, 2016 10:44am
Quoting manosk
{quote} USD/RUB never fails to keep you busy. It broke all supports on the downside nicely in within one hour only to go back up in the course of the last 35 mins of trading and reclaim most of the "losses". On the hourly chart it broke all levels as discussed earlier but now stand only below 65.86 and 65.81. On the 4H it has cleared the 50 and 100 MA and now stands below them.
Await for the Close price.

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #658
  • May 25, 2016 4:09pm May 25, 2016 4:09pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} Do you know if anything changed in the repo rate since yesterday? My swap rate was lower and I dont know why.
my roll over rate actually increased a bit since two weeks ago, used to be $15 per 100k, now $25-27 per 100k. I love Thursdays...
  • #659
  • May 26, 2016 3:11am May 26, 2016 3:11am
Quoting lsg168
{quote} my roll over rate actually increased a bit since two weeks ago, used to be $15 per 100k, now $25-27 per 100k. I love Thursdays...
me too lol. Let me calculate for a sec... mine fluctuated between $24 and 24.6 per 100k and now fluctuates between 23.6 and 25. No change really but quite volatile I would say for an interest rate instrument.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #660
  • May 26, 2016 3:44am May 26, 2016 3:44am
I see resistance today at 65.69 and 65.85 and support at 64.39. Between these levels I dont see anything specific one way or another. It will mostly depend on USD Index as oil did its job and helped USD/RUB to open with a gap down.

Update: Upon closer analysis I see also 65.44 as a resistance to the upside and 64.36 as the real support to the downside.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
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