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  • #621
  • Edited 12:11pm May 16, 2016 11:54am | Edited 12:11pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} By measuring with ratio ( Each leg same size. ) The red lines on my chart I get target 50.95 . So 50.80 is a very nice target. Each fib level ( 38.2 and 50 ) has been overshootig a little. So I hope the ratio stay the same for this third leg and a small overshoot for the fib 61.8 level. I think we will see 60 later in the summer as Dr. Phonix pointed out some messages ago. But not for this swing. {image}
Stay tuned over there...

To be precise... Weekly chart is below

Best
D.P.
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  • #622
  • May 16, 2016 12:06pm May 16, 2016 12:06pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} Thanks again for the interesting point. My only concern as far as the price of oil is concerned is the continuous negativity on the part of the investors/traders, also here in the threads connected with oil, which makes me nervous. I am a bull and I played it in a very nice way through the best carry trade I have seen in years, short USD/RUB, but was expecting some pullbacks in order to establish a healthier trend. The "problem" is that traders have been so negative on oil that the price rise has been even more forceful. The "funny" thing...
I agree what you write.

Also keep in mind what we can expect from Saudi Arabia. If/when they come with an IPO they will be interested in as high Oil price as possible. So it will not surprise me if they use the tools they have to make that happen.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #623
  • May 16, 2016 12:09pm May 16, 2016 12:09pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I agree what you write. Also keep in mind what we can expect from Saudi Arabia. If/when they come with an IPO they will be interested in as high Oil price as possible. So it will not surprise me if they use the tools they have to make that happen.
Totally agree with you. Already Saudi Arabia's creditworthiness was downgraded today so they are reaching their limits and we know that the oil market can be easily manipulated by the big producers for their sinister purposes.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #624
  • May 16, 2016 2:46pm May 16, 2016 2:46pm
Guys, there is a third "star" completed today.
I see thing like this for the first time.

Best
D.P.
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  • #625
  • May 18, 2016 5:44am May 18, 2016 5:44am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Guys, there is a third "star" completed today. I see thing like this for the first time. Best D.P. {image}
The funny thing is that now the primary driver of USD/RUB has shifted from oil to USD Index.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #626
  • May 18, 2016 7:22am May 18, 2016 7:22am
Quoting manosk
{quote} The funny thing is that now the primary driver of USD/RUB has shifted from oil to USD Index.
I told you!

Oil as a driver for the Russian economics is overvalued.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #627
  • May 18, 2016 7:24am May 18, 2016 7:24am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} I told you! Oil as a driver for the Russian economics is overvalued. Best D.P.
Totally agree. It played its role but now its all USD Index
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #628
  • May 18, 2016 7:37am May 18, 2016 7:37am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} I told you! Oil as a driver for the Russian economics is overvalued. Best D.P.
Over the last 300 days the correlation is 95 on the correlation index. For the last 4 days the correlation has fallen to 38 .

So it goes out of sync from time to time . Think the correlation will be back within some days.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #629
  • May 18, 2016 7:39am May 18, 2016 7:39am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Over the last 300 days the correlation is 95 on the correlation index. For the last 4 days the correlation has fallen to 38 . So it goes out of sync from time to time . Think the correlation will be back within some days.
That is true.

D.P.
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  • #630
  • May 18, 2016 10:46am May 18, 2016 10:46am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Over the last 300 days the correlation is 95 on the correlation index. For the last 4 days the correlation has fallen to 38 . So it goes out of sync from time to time . Think the correlation will be back within some days.
I have observed something that might help towards providing an explanation of the breakdown of the correlation between USD/RUB and oil. Lately I have seen oil rising after the close of the market in USD/RUB, so after 5:30 pm continental European time so USD/RUB doesnt get the full benefit of little rallies in oil. By the time the market in USD/RUB opens the next morning at 8:10 am the rally has turned into a stable level, albeit higher level, but we dont observe anymore the gaps in USD/RUB that used to be a norm in the market. Usually during the European trading oil is relatively stable no big movements. Point in case today. As soon as the USD/RUB market closed the oil is staging a rally from 48.24 to 48.83 currently.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #631
  • May 18, 2016 11:00am May 18, 2016 11:00am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I have observed something that might help towards providing an explanation of the breakdown of the correlation between USD/RUB and oil. Lately I have seen oil rising after the close of the market in USD/RUB, so after 5:30 pm continental European time so USD/RUB doesnt get the full benefit of little rallies in oil. By the time the market in USD/RUB opens the next morning at 8:10 am the rally has turned into a stable level, albeit higher level, but we dont observe anymore the gaps in USD/RUB that used to be a norm in the market. Usually during...
It can explain some of it. But correlation is also broken the last week for USDCAD and USDNOK against oil . They are not that strongly correlated to oil normally as USDRUB but correlation is broken the last days for them too.

I can trade USDRUB from 10:15 to 23:00 Helsinki time with my broker.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #632
  • May 18, 2016 11:17am May 18, 2016 11:17am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} It can explain some of it. But correlation is also broken the last week for USDCAD and USDNOK against oil . They are not that strongly correlated to oil normally as USDRUB but correlation is broken the last days for them too. I can trade USDRUB from 10:15 to 23:00 Helsinki time with my broker.
Yes, I know also Dukascopy has longer trading hours but I was referring to the true trading hours. I haven't checked USDNOK but I have also seen the breakdown in USDCAD, although I attributed that to the internal Canadian problems. The whole thing with the McMurray fire has deep implications for the Canadian economy as it dramatically reduced the output in oil and we are not even considering the people displaced, the environmental catastrophe etc. In general I have to say I am bit perplexed the last days with the lack of downside movement in USD/RUB. I mean I dont mind as I am making good money through carry but as you noted in your earlier post the breakdown in the correlation is notable and it doesnt make sense.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #633
  • May 18, 2016 11:45am May 18, 2016 11:45am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Yes, I know also Dukascopy has longer trading hours but I was referring to the true trading hours. I haven't checked USDNOK but I have also seen the breakdown in USDCAD, although I attributed that to the internal Canadian problems. The whole thing with the McMurray fire has deep implications for the Canadian economy as it dramatically reduced the output in oil and we are not even considering the people displaced, the environmental catastrophe etc. In general I have to say I am bit perplexed the last days with the lack of downside movement...
If it was only USDRUB correlation was broken with I would be worried. But it is against almost all instruments I can find historic correlation with Oil that correlation is turned almost upside down the last days. And as you was writing in first post. It follows USDIndex for the last period.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #634
  • Edited 4:36am May 19, 2016 3:47am | Edited 4:36am
For anyone long USD/RUB I would look for first target 66.94 and TP2 67.39.

Edit: I would actually look closely to the level 66.82, which coincides with the top of the last bounce from 63.95 from the 3rd of May and goes back to 2015 acting as a resistance/support.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #635
  • May 19, 2016 4:00am May 19, 2016 4:00am
For those interested in the downside, it will be critical at the end of the week for USD/RUB to be below 66.70 for weekly closing.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #636
  • May 19, 2016 4:12am May 19, 2016 4:12am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} If it was only USDRUB correlation was broken with I would be worried. But it is against almost all instruments I can find historic correlation with Oil that correlation is turned almost upside down the last days. And as you was writing in first post. It follows USDIndex for the last period.
It seems now that everything is again in sync, somehow balanced since last night with the hawkish statement of the Fed (minutes). USD Index up, Commodities (Gold, Silver, Oil) down, equities down so lets see now how the USD Index, that seems to be leading, will play out especially as it is in a resistance area 95.20. Will the news be enough to fuel a rally of the Index and subsequent rally of USD/RUB back to 70? I honestly do not think so but I cannot rule out exacerbated moves these days. Volatile markets...we will have a first clue at the end of this week.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #637
  • May 19, 2016 4:40am May 19, 2016 4:40am
Quoting manosk
{quote} It seems now that everything is again in sync, somehow balanced since last night with the hawkish statement of the Fed (minutes). USD Index up, Commodities (Gold, Silver, Oil) down, equities down so lets see now how the USD Index, that seems to be leading, will play out especially as it is in a resistance area 95.20. Will the news be enough to fuel a rally of the Index and subsequent rally of USD/RUB back to 70? I honestly do not think so but I cannot rule out exacerbated moves these days. Volatile markets...we will have a first clue at...
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #638
  • May 19, 2016 9:28am May 19, 2016 9:28am
Yeah, we seem to have a breakthrough...

D.P.
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  • #639
  • May 19, 2016 9:43am May 19, 2016 9:43am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Yeah, we seem to have a breakthrough... D.P. {image}
I am interested to see the end of the week. In my mind there are a lot of variables that play important roles and will dictate the situation. At the moment the picture is not clear. First, USD Index run to 95.50 but came back and now it is at old resistance, now support 95.20. As it has been pointed in another thread there are reasons to believe that this was the upper boundary in the channel and if it fails there that could bring USD index down to 92. Secondly, oil went down to my support levels at 46.80s with an extension to 60s and is bouncing. So for me oil has done what it was supposed to do, retracementwise. First step is to close now the hour above 46.95. Third, USD/RUB has penetrated some important lines but not on a weekly basis, so they are not valid for change of trend at the moment (on a weekly basis as mentioned before it needs to close above 66.70). We will be able to tell tomorrow evening.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #640
  • May 19, 2016 9:45am May 19, 2016 9:45am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I am interested to see the end of the week. In my mind there are a lot of variables that play important roles and will dictate the situation. At the moment the picture is not clear. First, USD Index run to 95.50 but came back and now it is at old resistance, now support 95.20. As it has been pointed in another thread there are reasons to believe that this was the upper boundary in the channel and if it fails there that could bring USD index down to 92. Secondly, oil went down to my support levels at 46.80s with an extension to 60s...
You are reading my thoughts, pal.
So am I.

Best
D.P.
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