Trend Trading System

Breakout on Soybean.

let's watch if it can develop into a full blown trend.

fartist

I'll be looking into that.

And I hope soon to contribute and give my opinions here.

Thanks @fartist

Silver is another market to look out for...



fartist

This week's market analysis here...



fartist

EURGBP Daily:

If it can close above 20 EMA, I'll be looking to long.



fartist

Hi to all,

Thank you for sharing fartist the system and their explanations.

Hi Mjma01,

Please can you share you TLP and indicator in your posts ?

Thanks,

Hi Rayner,
I'm an absolute newbie here and I'm trying to learn Trend Following from this thread and your videos.
I have a GBPCHF chart. I'm confused should I interpret it as a breakout (long) or entry point of a trend (short) or maybe both are wrong?


Thanks

Did anyone else get caught on GBPJPY?

Hey Fartist, are you following USD/CAD? It's been in a nice downtrend for 3 months now.
USD/ZAR has fallen quite a lot too these months (from around 18 to 14), after rising exponentially in the past years, and there's room for it to fall down a lot further, although the current downtrend made some dangerous retracements.

This week's market analysis here...



fartist

Not much on usdcad for me.

For USD/ZAR, the weekly is in a pullback against long-term uptrend.

I'll wait for signs of the pullback to weaken before looking for longs.

fartist

Yes price has broke out.

Wouldn't look to short for now.

fartist

And yet another great system that's a guaranteed money maker when applied with the necessary discipline to cut losers and let winners run.

It ain't for lack of completely valid and profitable systems most struggle.

It's sthg else, a certain, err, deficiency between the ears:

"An Analysis Of The Profiles And Motivations Of Habitual Commodity Speculators

The focus of this study is the habitual speculator in commodity futures markets. Responses to a 73 question survey were collected directly from retail commodity brokers with offices in Alabama. Each questionnaire recorded information on an individual commodity client who had traded for an extended period of time.

The typical trader studied is a married, white male, age 52. He is affluent and well educated. He is a self-employed business owner who can recover from financial setbacks. He is a politically right wing conservative involved in the political process. He assumes a good deal of risk in most phases of his life. He is both an aggressive investor and an active gambler.

This trader does not consider preservation of his commodity capital to be a very high trading priority. As a result, he rarely uses stop loss orders. He wins more frequently than he loses (over 51% of the time) but is an overall net loser in dollar terms. In spite of recurring trading losses, he has never made any substantial change in his basic trading style.

To this trader, whether he won or lost on a particular trade is more important than the size of the win or loss. Thus he consistently cuts his profits short while letting his losses run. He also worries more about missing a move in the market by being on the sidelines than about losing by being on the wrong side of a market move; i.e., being in the action is more important than the financial consequences. Participating brokers confirmed that for the majority of the speculators studied, the primary motivation for continuous trading is the recreational utility derived largely from having a market position."
https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uiucao/14768.html

Losing traders want to be right way more than make money, they simply cannot accept that losing is an intrinsic cost of doing business as a trader.

Great info in your thread mate.

:-)

Hey Dash,

Thanks for reaching out, appreciate the research work you've shared.

Cheers

fartist

My pleasure mate.

Just thought it explains very well what happens on boards and in trading, explains why the huge majority fail.

All net profitable, winning traders accept that losing is part and parcel of trading.

All unprofitable traders who can't figure out what the truly success relevant factors are in making it in a probability game like trading where the outcome of every individual trade is random but you can have an edge playing itself out over the law of large numbers, those losing traders waste their lives seeking perfection, 100% certainty and a non-existent holy grail that never loses.

All while the net profitable trader just get on with the job, handle the inevitable losses with alacrity, and, with uncertainty and imperfection go on to make fortunes.

Good trading :-)

Has this ever happened to you?



fartist

This week's market analysis here...



fartist

Hi Rayner,
It has been quiet in here lately. I just noticed a sudden surge in crude oil price. I have been watching the crude oil for quite a while but I did not trade it because I thought crude oil is reacting to news/rumors a little too much lately. But now I have just realized that I might have missed the recent entry opportunities.

Here's the monthly, weekly, and daily charts of WTI




I have only drawn one horizontal line to represent a resistance level.

I have two questions when I looked at the three charts. The first question is a general question about how to identify S/R levels. Noticed that the resistance level looks good on the daily and the monthly charts, but if you look at the weekly chart you will probably draw a different resistance level. So how do we deal with such situation? Which time frame should we use to draw S/R level? And what do we do if the S/R levels drawn on daily chart are different from those drawn on other time frame?
The second question is really, how would you now trade this crude oil? Would you place a buy limit order at the 20 EMA and wait for the price to retrace, or you would place a STOP buy order after it breaks through the resistance line that I have drawn? Or you would go short now?

Thank you very much for sharing your experience with us.

barry

hey guys, how is it going¿ the thread is getting a bit quiet lately, please post your recent trades / ideas. Got stop out on usdaud & euraud reversal this week..