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The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,421
  • May 12, 2016 2:42pm May 12, 2016 2:42pm
LMT BUY 1.138x -> TP1 => 1.148x | STP => 1.133x | max r:r -=> 2:1 Looking for another go at 1.17xx
Peace
  • #140,422
  • May 12, 2016 2:46pm May 12, 2016 2:46pm
buy 1.138x
  • #140,423
  • Edited 3:28pm May 12, 2016 2:57pm | Edited 3:28pm
Per request Neutral option open ... Second call before the roll...quick that we don't want price to move too far...

IN

-> LMT BUY 1.138x -> TP1 => 1.148x | STP => 1.133x | max r:r -=> 2:1

hoom

NMZee

build11

Replicant

Neutral (doesnt make much sense R:R with this map so for the sake of the argument I will give any the IN neutral) time limit 3 days

No touch - 1.133x -> | 1.143x | max r:r -=> 1:1 (only)



-> LMT SELL 1.138x -> TP1 => 1.128x | STP => 1.143x | max r:r -=> 2:1

sanvulture

chronical

CommercialB

eborn


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,424
  • May 12, 2016 3:09pm May 12, 2016 3:09pm
sisse,

Thanks for allowing me in. However, I am more biased SHORT since we lost .138X for the Roll. But, DOLLAR still has not conquered the 94.4x level. And, NEWS is around the corner.

If I SHORT here, as I want to with a tight stop; then, I violate my RULE of not SELLING from the INSIDE in a NEUTRAL OUTLOOK unless this FLIP area Changes the OUTLOOK which I can't say it should since FA has not shown us this direction at the moment.

I took Neutral again because I don't have enough info to confirm this FLIP level has truly been FLIPPED yet.
  • #140,425
  • May 12, 2016 3:11pm May 12, 2016 3:11pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Thanks for allowing me in. However, I am more biased SHORT since we lost .138X for the Roll. But, DOLLAR still has not conquered the 94.4x level. And, NEWS is around the corner. If I SHORT here, as I want to with a tight stop; then, I violate my RULE of not SELLING from the INSIDE in a NEUTRAL OUTLOOK unless this FLIP area Changes the OUTLOOK which I can't say it should since FA has not shown us this direction at the moment. I took Neutral again because I don't have enough info to confirm this FLIP level has truly been FLIPPED yet.
I see. You meant stay on the sidelines instead of neutral ...I took it as no break call

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,426
  • May 12, 2016 3:24pm May 12, 2016 3:24pm
Quoting sisse
I changed my mind about waiting for the next iterations. I think there is a better opportunity to keep in synch with the market to open the table right now at the same level... sisse
Have not been following these last few days just in the door but will jump in blindly for the ride ..was short before so staying short ..> LMT SELL 1.138x -> TP1 => 1.128x | STP => 1.430x | max r:r -=> 2:1

& thanks for the opportunity
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #140,427
  • May 12, 2016 3:25pm May 12, 2016 3:25pm
Yes that is what I meant. However, I would like to learn why I may or may not be looking at this correctly. You may want it to play out. This is new waters for me.

We closed BELOW the FLIP (.138X) today. But, have news tomorrow. Inside of DAILY trading range on .161X to .121X. And, DOLLAR still shy of capturing 94.4X.

Should one even take a trade until all these or some of these questions have been answered?

In the past, I would have taken a trade at .138X Short to .128X with no problem. But, today....I can't.
  • #140,428
  • May 12, 2016 3:26pm May 12, 2016 3:26pm
for completeness sake:

-> LMT SELL 1.138x -> TP1 => 1.128x | STP => 1.143x | max r:r -=> 2:1
  • #140,429
  • May 12, 2016 4:02pm May 12, 2016 4:02pm
1.138x for the roll but more importantly Dollar held steady closing in imminent break up alerts short term with a tiny push from inflation. Second attempt to take key 94.4x.... A break above will set the low of the Month, Quarter and probably year (TBC this one yet).

Clearing all longs positions from NFP flow in a scratch trade here. For the sake of the iteration 'reverso' in play for the roll with cheap tickets available aiming to smash stops hanging on air a few ticks below targeting the lows of the 1.12xx handle...

For strictly TA reasons until further data tomorrow changing short term outlook in euro/usd from Neutral to SELL via Dollar (and obviously the rest of the FX board if we get the breach in dollar)

In any case....TABLE CLOSED ...thanks all, updates later.

++++ Quick Call 6 ++++

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.138x (elapsed time 0 day 0 hours)


-> LMT BUY 1.138x -> TP1 => 1.148x | STP => 1.133x | max r:r -=> 2:1

hoom

NMZee

build11

Replicant


-> LMT SELL 1.138x -> TP1 => 1.128x | STP => 1.143x | max r:r -=> 2:1

sanvulture

chronical

CommercialB

eborn


GL all trading the next few sessions.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,430
  • May 12, 2016 4:19pm May 12, 2016 4:19pm
-> LMT SELL 1.138x -> TP1 => 1.128x | STP => 1.430x | max r:r -=> 2:1
  • #140,431
  • Edited 5:01pm May 12, 2016 4:20pm | Edited 5:01pm
A bit late to the party..staying on the sidelines....since the short-term outlook remained the same & I have no bias...even if I did, stops too small with US data out tomorrow.
@Sisse A while back you said you might explain how you initially changed your mid-term outlook on EURUSD to neutral on March 31st. Could you break down your thought process on that outlook?

Regards.
  • #140,432
  • May 12, 2016 4:45pm May 12, 2016 4:45pm
a pretty famous guy around here says "sideline is a position" all the time
  • #140,433
  • May 12, 2016 5:45pm May 12, 2016 5:45pm
Missed it. But buy side for the record.
  • #140,434
  • May 12, 2016 6:19pm May 12, 2016 6:19pm
I got here late again, but i'm on short side.
  • #140,435
  • Edited 10:42pm May 12, 2016 10:32pm | Edited 10:42pm
I wish I would have checked here earlier to get in, however I missed it. Thank you to all who are participating and to sisse for taking time to teach us!!

Mid term I see an upside movement maybe as far as 1.241x
short term I see it could go down as far as 1.119x before more upwards movement

am I way off?
  • #140,436
  • May 12, 2016 10:42pm May 12, 2016 10:42pm
Quoting The Fool
once again, oil up a bit, stocks sliding.....if the oil rally can't lift equities....ruh-roh!....whaddaya think will happen if the OPEC gen meeting is a double down on chaos and the general glut? and the the Brexit polls show 50/50 or better for "leave"? and then the Fedheads spook with some hike talk? omg!
Hey TF, long time. Hope all is well.

What you've given is just one of nine possible permutations! If I had to give mine, I'd say:
1) Brexit - probably not, despite what the polls might suggest nearer the time (think Scottish Referendum)
2) Fed hike in June - possible
3) OPEC - no idea, but probably no change based on previous meetings

But as fun as it is to think and chat about, unfortunately our opinions are more hindrance than help to us as traders trying to trade the events. And neither do I want to burst a blood vessel trying to guess how the market will react in the case of all nine possible outcomes!

I think the only thing that matters is the overall opinion of everyone (i.e. the market) before the event, and then after it. That's why I like to study the interaction of price, volume and open interest in order to gauge how the market (especially the "smart money") feels about it
You reap what you sow.
  • #140,437
  • Edited 1:59am May 13, 2016 1:22am | Edited 1:59am
Quoting NorthTrader
But as fun as it is to think and chat about, unfortunately our opinions are more hindrance than help to us as traders
Keep in mind I'm just a guy named "The Fool" making stupid comments on an internet forum. As far as trading goes, I am purely a volatility hunter. My job is to identify these types of macro events that will move the markets. This is really quite easy, since such events are often "scheduled" and that makes structuring options trades months in advance of them easy, as well. I have lots of trades set up relative to the late June macro events, have been building positions since the beginning of the year. I don't have an opinion really about what the Brexit outcome will be, or what the FOMC will do, but I have trades set up to catch volatility changes for different outcomes. The best case scenario for me is we will see a ^vix spike in June as the June FOMC/Brexit combo overshadows the markets. If that happens, I am going to get paid. If it does not, I will probably lose a little bit. If all I ever do is put myself in a position to lose a little or make a lot, I will probably get richer. I don't care if I am right or wrong about this or that, so long as I have done my job and put myself in the best position to profit.

All that said, I have to believe the shit is going down....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,438
  • May 13, 2016 2:57am May 13, 2016 2:57am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Hey TF, long time. Hope all is well. What you've given is just one of nine possible permutations! If I had to give mine, I'd say: 1) Brexit - probably not, despite what the polls might suggest nearer the time (think Scottish Referendum) 2) Fed hike in June - possible 3) OPEC - no idea, but probably no change based on previous meetings But as fun as it is to think and chat about, unfortunately our opinions are more hindrance than help to us as traders trying to trade the events. And neither do I want to burst a blood vessel trying to guess...
Very good point NorthTrader, in the sociology of finance we learn that it doesnt matter what I think about a stock for example, what matters is what others think and this is the way I should trade it. Over-analyzing fundamentals is good up to a certain point for your own personal development but you should not use that info for trading unless you know that others have this information as well and even more importantly know how this piece of info is going to affect their trading.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #140,439
  • May 13, 2016 3:13am May 13, 2016 3:13am
No surprises in the Euro on the opening range with stops getting caught to the bottom side but more importantly eyes on Equities today with NY for reports.

European Equities are barely holding but holding at the end. DAX and CAC still sitting with imminent break alerts since early this week. German numbers came slightly better than expected so NY playing ball with a decent numbers will be enough ...

Until then not much to do here, same levels same trades, same all...


Quoting sisse
++++ Quick Call 6 ++++ Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing Current Euro price @ 1.138x (elapsed time 0 day 0 hours)
....and we have some rather quick results in the contest. 1.133x cleaned so longs out....


++++ Quick Call 6 (update 1) ++++

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.133x (elapsed time 0 day 12 hours)


-> LMT BUY 1.138x -> TP1 => 1.148x | STP => 1.133x | max r:r -=> 2:1

hoom

NMZee

build11

Replicant

goosebone


-> LMT SELL 1.138x -> TP1 => 1.128x | STP => 1.143x | max r:r -=> 2:1

sanvulture

chronical

CommercialB

eborn

Grinsakh


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,440
  • May 13, 2016 3:24am May 13, 2016 3:24am
you gotta love it . 113.287

Sisse , you are the master at picking these levels .
Peace
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