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The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,381
  • May 11, 2016 2:13am May 11, 2016 2:13am
Quoting monkey@forex
{quote} im confused, are u saying dax testing 10,000 before launching soft rally with 2016 year high already set, or are u saying breakdown below 10,000 means dax has already setup high of year...the early break UP bit is confusing as dax seems to be breaking DOWN
I think its Dax testing and keeping 10.000 (429x for Cac) that will trigger soft rally to set the high of the year
  • #140,382
  • Edited 2:16pm May 11, 2016 9:50am | Edited 2:16pm
Quoting sisse
Watch out for European Equities. Imminent early break up alerts!!!triggered in DAX and CAC. DAX taking 10000 for a test and probably to set the 2016 highs before the summer and as is expected this week it will carry the euro as collateral with it sisse
sisse, do you expect the recent yearly highs to get tested on DAX CAC SP500? I would say the yearly high is gonna get set but its gonna be the one we have now as so far yearly top. Because of timing. There may be only 1-2 weeks left before risk-off mode and the window does not look big enough. Only SP500 may have potential to test the highs. EU equities look more heavy and always get saved by US sessions, which I expect (SP500) to lose steam as it approaches the top of range.

P.S.
chart 1: on short term lvls im waiting for 2091/2 lvl to short.
chart 2: on H4 this fibbo works well.
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  • #140,383
  • May 11, 2016 10:19am May 11, 2016 10:19am
oil way up, equities well down.....been looking for that spell to break......need it for "sell in May" to get legs. Not the season for a big breakdown in oil price, but OPEC could make that happen anyway in a few weeks.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,384
  • May 12, 2016 12:54am May 12, 2016 12:54am
Quoting clayjay
May have jumped the gun but have chosen my Poison Short S&P, DJ, ASX 200, and FTSE
Out
Now long S&P at 2065, Nik, DJ, US Tech.rest at same time.

Have followed this thread for some time now.
Is the only thread I follow.
  • #140,385
  • May 12, 2016 5:43am May 12, 2016 5:43am
"now a special SHOUT to IMARICH1 that has won the traditional 'Best Call of the week' in the thread. For some of the newcomers and/or latecomers for this conversation read the post below and track back posts ...you may get sometimes out of the process...

Quoting IMARICH1
The reason I chose NEUTRAL was due to:"--sisse

Thanks sisse! Feel like I am starting grade school all over again. So much more I need to learn before I can really be a trader. Please continue your exercises and insight in how to trade FA and TA, understand market expectations/outlook and capital management.
  • #140,386
  • May 12, 2016 6:35am May 12, 2016 6:35am
Quoting chester123
I would say the yearly high is gonna get set but its gonna be the one we have now as so far yearly top. Because of timing. There may be only 1-2 weeks left before risk-off mode and the window does not look big enough. Only SP500 may have potential to test the highs. EU equities look more heavy and always get saved by US sessions, which I expect (SP500) to lose steam as it approaches the top of range.
Well sure mid term (especially) and short term TA and FA are setting awfully bearish but a couple of points:

  1. Don't forget we are trading all time highs (ATH) in Equities (which by default is long term areas) in a mega uptrend pumped by QE and low rates. Calling a top or bottom in a trend is never an easy task neither a recommendable position to take it blindly.

  1. Equities and indices DO NOT follow the same FA interrelations than currencies do. While macro and monetary policies have an impact (especially with all the QE before and low/negative rates) they have a strong base on the valuation of their components.

    1. While change of value in a FX pair can range widely without much change in their underlying reasons, in Equities things are a bit different because:
      ​

      1. Companies don't collapse in mass one day to the other, neither an index will move sharply out of range just out of a 'chart' or 'TA' pattern
      2. Money invested in stocks is real and into the economy. The aim of investment in equities, outside of hedging and very short term and heavy leveraged speculative flows, is on the buy side/long term portfolio growth while in currencies the exchange rate can be heavily move by monetary policy or short term shocks without affecting the real economy.



  2. From a TA point of view. Indexes don't behave in the same way as in currencies because of the inherit properties of the market, trading hours are very limited with volume and liquidity playing a central role
  3. From a market behaviour point of view, markets participants and expectations are a bit more natural and smart-ass approach between the major player so reading market outlook from a short term flows can be tricky and require lots of experience.

In a nutshell, watchout the bastards sit and hold as long as they can for Brexit/risk as don't forget that a flop could trigger another major manic rally once the highs are taken (all time highs don't forget!!!) leaving all the suckers sitting in the sidelines.

Sure the 'sell in May' looks clear but be careful because it starting to look too good for my taste and experience. From a TA point of view 2090 is crystal clear but the highs are not locked yet. Squeezing the highs in low volatility choppy and boring rally until last minute risk trigger will be on the cards with a breach in an out of ATH on profit taking if required ... again leaving only the really big bastards on the money ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,387
  • May 12, 2016 7:04am May 12, 2016 7:04am
Quoting sisse
Sure the 'sell in May' looks clear but be careful because it starting to look too good for my taste and experience.
Agreed. I personally don't see any signs of an imminent S&P selloff. But watching it closely as the Brexit vote draws near.
You reap what you sow.
  • #140,388
  • May 12, 2016 7:30am May 12, 2016 7:30am
Quoting sisse
Sure the 'sell in May' looks clear but be careful because it starting to look too good for my taste and experience.
all the best bots sell their stocks in May and head to the Hamptons for a long relaxing Summer amongst high bot society....playing bridge and Tetris over WD40 cocktails all night, knocking clanky boots in the dunes under the stars....it's glorious....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,389
  • May 12, 2016 8:20am May 12, 2016 8:20am
once again, oil up a bit, stocks sliding.....if the oil rally can't lift equities....ruh-roh!....whaddaya think will happen if the OPEC gen meeting is a double down on chaos and the general glut? and the the Brexit polls show 50/50 or better for "leave"? and then the Fedheads spook with some hike talk? omg!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,390
  • May 12, 2016 8:34am May 12, 2016 8:34am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well sure mid term (especially) and short term TA and FA are setting awfully bearish but a couple of points: Don't forget we are trading all time highs (ATH) in Equities (which by default is long term areas) in a mega uptrend pumped by QE and low rates. Calling a top or bottom in a trend is never an easy task neither a recommendable position to take it blindly. Equities and indices DO NOT follow the same FA interrelations than currencies do. While macro and monetary policies have an impact (especially with all the QE before and low/negative...
sisse, superb post. thank you! deligtfull to read

lol, ill think about more Q

P.S.: well see how it goes. US500 slided today. in any case: as I see it TA-wise: SP500 in best conditions - DAX middle - UK100 in worst hanging by fingernails. I bet its not gonna survive much longer (on D1). However, I bet it depends on US and thats another story as you wrote
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  • #140,391
  • May 12, 2016 9:06am May 12, 2016 9:06am
Quoting The Fool
once again, oil up a bit, stocks sliding.....if the oil rally can't lift equities....ruh-roh!....whaddaya think will happen if the OPEC gen meeting is a double down on chaos and the general glut? and the the Brexit polls show 50/50 or better for "leave"? and then the Fedheads spook with some hike talk? omg!
reallocated 90% of mine out of equities yesterday morning- so far a good choice

haven't had an fx trade all month...several pendings
  • #140,392
  • May 12, 2016 9:20am May 12, 2016 9:20am
Quoting The Fool
once again, oil up a bit, stocks sliding.....if the oil rally can't lift equities....ruh-roh!....whaddaya think will happen if the OPEC gen meeting is a double down on chaos and the general glut? and the the Brexit polls show 50/50 or better for "leave"? and then the Fedheads spook with some hike talk? omg!
Quoting chester123
{quote} sisse, superb post. thank you! deligtfull to read lol, ill think about more Q P.S.: well see how it goes. US500 slided today. in any case: as I see it TA-wise: SP500 in best conditions - DAX middle - UK100 in worst hanging by fingernails. I bet its not gonna survive much longer (on D1). However, I bet it depends on US and thats another story as you wrote {image}
--> AAPL carrying the board on a key break in play. Losing 90.xx for the M will lock a very long term high in APPLE. Is the King dead? I think so. We wont see fresh highs in a very very long time.

--> For now outlook stay is strong sell but we are entering in exhaustion leg ($87.8 naked with ext $85.xx wide open).However we are entering in v. good value areas to buy for a decent dead cat bounce. Apple needs to find floor with or without risk in play before equities make the next move...

--> Very importantly today, Brexit officially entering in the trading picture via the BOE and we have a plethora of rumours, confirmation of the potential impact and etc from details from HSBC, RBS and a couple of other major of thousand of jobs and divisions that will be relocated outside London as soon as Brexit is confirmed to large european based business headquarters announcing contingencies to run out the UK from Berlin to Dublin ..... Game changer across the board in play in the extreme case scenario (Brexit), or a major yearly trend changer with a flop (staying in) in play....

There is going to be lots of noise in this front until the vote. The only think for sure is FTSE and Sterling will be on the centre of storm and all fronts in the UK (and the domino in the rest of Europe) looks very very gloomy via uncertainty with a potential slide into panic mode on the minimum failure of markets to hold the current levels...

Dark european close with FTSE flirting to lose floor and jump into a very deep cliff.... FTSE back on trading workspace with all eyes on FTSE losing 6100 as it will leave 6000 naked...below that is a very very deep hole that hopefully for the rest of the mortals living in Europe wont be unlocked ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,393
  • May 12, 2016 9:24am May 12, 2016 9:24am
Vote or not- I do not think the government will allow a brexit.

Vote rigging, flat out lying, or even military intervention ah'la riots- color it however you want, I don't think the government will allow it.
  • #140,394
  • May 12, 2016 9:32am May 12, 2016 9:32am
eurusd losing 1.140x again , with a bit of momentum bears could take an easy ride to 1.119x else it's sucking everyone into consolidation and fake breakouts til it blows in the face of the crowd for an extended and no brainer rally...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #140,395
  • May 12, 2016 9:42am May 12, 2016 9:42am
Quoting Pharm0r
Vote or not- I do not think the government will allow a brexit. Vote rigging, flat out lying, or even military intervention ah'la riots- color it however you want, I don't think the government will allow it.
They opened pandoras box in the way they proposed the Referendum. They allowed the populist and right wing of the Tory party and the UKIP (similar to the Tea party in US) to hijack the vote and get the upper hand. They spent all political capital in the last 5 years trashing all potential allies in Europe for reforms (for in or out), edging the UK in Europe with Fascist and extreme nationalistic parties....a recipe for disaster and no change but going backwards in time whatever the outcome of the vote.

They haven't proposed one single progressive idea either staying in or out so basically they lost north and leverage just to maintain internal political support and now they will pay the price (and it can be massive either way).

It will be very hard now to backtrack in case of a Yes vote.

The majority of well educated and urban people that may vote to stay in a reformed and better Europe will just not be bother to show up in the polls while the populist are appealing to the good all 'English Empire we are better than everyone' and all the problems in the world from Syria, Global Warming to even England losing in the next Euro Footy tournament or you name it ...it is all because the EU blah blah blah ...

There is no real debate but just populist scaremongering from both side so basically and like always the average Joe will pay a heavy price for the stupidity and ambiguity of its governments if things pan out wrong ...We'll see

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,396
  • May 12, 2016 9:54am May 12, 2016 9:54am
Quoting sisse
{quote} There is no real debate but just populist scaremongering from both side so basically and like always the average Joe will pay a heavy price for the stupidity and ambiguity of its governments if things pan out wrong ...We'll see sisse
Agreed, nothing to be seen until vote or government flat out says it's not happening.

What's your vote
  • #140,397
  • May 12, 2016 9:58am May 12, 2016 9:58am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Agreed, nothing to be seen until vote or government flat out says it's not happening. What's your vote
...common sense first ...archaic notions of cheap mediaval nationalism last...

If you see who is in my profile picture you will have no doubts how I will vote.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,398
  • May 12, 2016 9:58am May 12, 2016 9:58am
Quoting Pharm0r
Vote or not- I do not think the government will allow a brexit. Vote rigging, flat out lying, or even military intervention ah'la riots- color it however you want, I don't think the government will allow it.
Exactly. It is almost like voting about doing suicide. I am not sure that if the voters for suicide win that the losing part will join in the suicide. It is not important how the people vote. How the votes are counted is the important thing ( From Stalin ) .
Anyway we get a lot of volatility and opportunities in the market for trading from this. So something it is good for. And it can continue for a long time after June.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #140,399
  • May 12, 2016 10:18am May 12, 2016 10:18am
Mark your charts today. Unexpectely key day across the board. We are setting up for major outlook changes this week.

For now and for the rest of the session, watch-out Dollar tripping to test the current lows one more time with UJ clearing the handle for quick test 110.xx. CAD already lost the 1.29xx handle and we are on imminent break down on a tick below current lows to 1.268x and the exhaustion extension to 1.22xx with OIL completing the leg up ++ $48.xx.

Basically we are back to the still yet to complete or fail NFP leg including Euro and Equities that failed to kill the move.

Here loaded across the board for the news flow legs but with all cannons aiming for the upcoming major swinging that are around the corner....so same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,400
  • May 12, 2016 10:20am May 12, 2016 10:20am
Quoting sisse
If you see who is in my profile picture you will have no doubts how I will vote. sisse
...more than once I wondered who that is?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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