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AUD/USD

  • #97,021
  • May 7, 2016 5:16pm May 7, 2016 5:16pm
​we also hit 50.0% Fib of the last major move up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #97,022
  • May 7, 2016 6:00pm May 7, 2016 6:00pm
still here. the problem here is this downtrend is very short-lived. so waiting to long. im not trading the correction
  • #97,023
  • Edited 6:54pm May 7, 2016 6:41pm | Edited 6:54pm
like aud usd will return to uptrend anytime soon ,i mean weeks ,it could b in that space some time
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #97,024
  • Edited May 8, 2016 1:07am May 7, 2016 9:36pm | Edited May 8, 2016 1:07am
Nearly half way on the 5th leg (5) zigzag down, target at least 0.6820 for new low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #97,025
  • May 7, 2016 9:55pm May 7, 2016 9:55pm
With poor CPI and a rate cut from the RBA could spell the continuation of the Aussie down trend.
How ever before release of the data price was clearly rejected off weekly trend and poor cpi data to start the 250 pip sell off.
If down trend continues i think will would be looking at around a further 1600 pip down trend to complete its pattern over the next 6 to 18 months.
This will all depend on future developments of the Feds promise to hike rates and of course the Australian election.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,026
  • May 8, 2016 6:09am May 8, 2016 6:09am
Quoting ThirtyTen
​we also hit 50.0% Fib of the last major move up {image}
Nice clean chart.
  • #97,027
  • May 8, 2016 5:38pm May 8, 2016 5:38pm
Morning AUD @.7375

Election called and first poll is Labor ahead.. The one that will tax a country into submission .. Not a good sign but AUD hasn't moved.

Second up was China had a shocker with regards to exports and imports.

AUD still on .73 ?

Must be some buy orders lurking or the local market hasn't got the guts to trade.

Let see what the real money guys do
  • #97,028
  • May 8, 2016 7:25pm May 8, 2016 7:25pm
Quoting lasty
The one that will tax a country into submission
Not accurate at all. Under both coalition and labour tax rates would fall. Relative to the current financial year.

Keep to trading discussion and not spouting your political views mixed with incorrect claims.
  • #97,029
  • May 8, 2016 7:39pm May 8, 2016 7:39pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} Not accurate at all. Under both coalition and labour tax rates would fall. Relative to the current financial year. Keep to trading discussion and not spouting your political views mixed with incorrect claims.
Knowing fiscal policy is a part of trading.

This time it wont matter who gets in taxes are going up up and up.

But you know what labour will do. Tax the hard working and give to the low income and no income. These kind of people will then spend it on alcohol smokes tattoos new tvs and anything else that raises their low self esteem, and makes them feel important.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,030
  • May 8, 2016 9:11pm May 8, 2016 9:11pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} Not accurate at all. Under both coalition and labour tax rates would fall. Relative to the current financial year. Keep to trading discussion and not spouting your political views mixed with incorrect claims.
Thanks comrade.

  • #97,031
  • May 8, 2016 9:21pm May 8, 2016 9:21pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Knowing fiscal policy is a part of trading. This time it wont matter who gets in taxes are going up up and up. But you know what labour will do. Tax the hard working and give to the low income and no income. These kind of people will then spend it on alcohol smokes tattoos new tvs and anything else that raises their low self esteem, and makes them feel important.
I agree in that it is important, but your claims (much like those of lasty) are totally incorrect and not based on any announced policies. They border on delusion.
  • #97,032
  • May 8, 2016 9:26pm May 8, 2016 9:26pm
i think crude about to hit lower ..40 dollars a barrel ..so see where aussie goes ...scalping for now ... focusing on eur/gbp .... chopping its head off every time it peeks out..... look at weeklies ... next few weeks a nice little money spinner
  • #97,033
  • May 8, 2016 10:42pm May 8, 2016 10:42pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} I agree in that it is important, but your claims (much like those of lasty) are totally incorrect and not based on any announced policies. They border on delusion.
Comrade.
You failed to recognized that a Carbon tax is a burden on business with a massive hike on electricity prices
Opposed tax reduction to Small business is a burden
A double dipping paid parental scheme is a burden
A tax on fuel efficient cars is a burden

Not forgetting their border security policy which could open up the flood gates to asylum seekers.

And then there are all these unfunded policies which in a gloomy looking global economic climate have to be paid for by who ?

Do I think the LNP are any better ? NO.. In fact they are bad but just not as bad.

AS you can see by the latest job adverts we are in a downturn .. Labor has the history of raising taxes and that's going to exacerbate the problem.

Unless either party has a miraculous jobs growth "innovation" then this currency is heading south in a big way.
  • #97,034
  • May 8, 2016 10:45pm May 8, 2016 10:45pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} I agree in that it is important, but your claims (much like those of lasty) are totally incorrect and not based on any announced policies. They border on delusion.

They dont have a choice, where do you think they will get money from to make payment for the 500 billion $ deficit we have. Aus gov are being put under pressure from the RBA and banks to do something. Only way is to increase tax or make cuts. Either way it will curb the flow of money, which will lower AUD.

Making cuts mean less jobs higher taxes mean less money to spend. But of course for the no working Australian the will have money to spend from the hand outs.

Not having a dig or anything everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

Labour will generally try and find ways to take from the hard working and wealthy and give out to the poor, create useless jobs out of nothing give out stimulus to create project,s this will prematurely appreciate the AUD in medium term until the ass end falls out of it and creates more unplayable debt. ATM we are at the stage we have to borrow more debt just to make re-payments on the debt and its increasing something ridiculous or $450 per second.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,035
  • May 8, 2016 10:51pm May 8, 2016 10:51pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} I agree in that it is important, but your claims (much like those of lasty) are totally incorrect and not based on any announced policies. They border on delusion.
His claims are correct. Yours are not. No wonder you were called a comrade.
Taxes are going up, because after the end of the mining boom where else, except taxes, will government get funds? Only taxes. And they will tax the middle class the most...
  • #97,036
  • May 8, 2016 11:17pm May 8, 2016 11:17pm
Breaking: Chinese commodity futures are tanking .
Dalian commodities exchange has fallen by 4.73% reversing a gain of 3% from friday.

What could turn out to be a massive disaster is the retail punters in China are exposed to long commodity positions including iron ore which will dampen the AUD bulls.
  • #97,037
  • May 9, 2016 12:56am May 9, 2016 12:56am
Quoting lasty
You failed to recognized that a Carbon tax
Is not an ALP policy.

Quoting lasty
is a burden on business with a massive hike on electricity prices
Not really. Electricity prices in Australia have risen primarily due to the poles and wires long-term investment cycle, and secondary because state governments have shortfalls in revenue and wanted to make up for it by getting more dividends from energy companies. Carbon tax had negligible effect on electricity prices by comparison.

Quoting lasty
Opposed tax reduction to Small business
Incorrect, ALP policy is to match coalition tax cut to small business.

Quoting lasty
A tax on fuel efficient cars is a burden
This is not a partisan policy.

Quoting lasty
Not forgetting their border security policy which could open up the flood gates to asylum seekers.
ALP and coalition have exactly the same policy on asylum seekers.


I am not a strong supporter of either party, but you are talking complete crap.

Quoting cold chisel
{quote} His claims are correct. Yours are not. No wonder you were called a comrade. Taxes are going up, because after the end of the mining boom where else, except taxes, will government get funds? Only taxes. And they will tax the middle class the most...
If you claim is that taxation must rise because of the end of the commodity bubble and it's associated boom, then that's not a partisan claim (ie. no difference who's in government). In my view there is plenty of stuff to cut before needing to raise taxes, whether that will be done or not remains to be seen. So far neither party has shown any willingness to remove the excesses of the Howard government, except ALP with negative gearing.
  • #97,038
  • May 9, 2016 1:32am May 9, 2016 1:32am
IMHO, the AUDUSD had enough of downside and might reverse it recent losses soon as it failed to break the horizontal support. The upside move can start from a break above 0.7425-30 immediate resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #97,039
  • May 9, 2016 1:51am May 9, 2016 1:51am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} Is not an ALP policy. {quote} Not really. Electricity prices in Australia have risen primarily due to the poles and wires long-term investment cycle, and secondary because state governments have shortfalls in revenue and wanted to make up for it by getting more dividends from energy companies. Carbon tax had negligible effect on electricity prices by comparison. {quote} Incorrect, ALP policy is to match coalition tax cut to small business. {quote} This is not a partisan policy. {quote} ALP and coalition have exactly the same policy on asylum...
Im not getting into a political rant with a left wing labor hack but read whats been said and not been denied by Shorten or Marles.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/lab...story-comments
  • #97,040
  • May 9, 2016 1:53am May 9, 2016 1:53am
Quoting Fx_Anil
IMHO, the AUDUSD had enough of downside and might reverse it recent losses soon as it failed to break the horizontal support. The upside move can start from a break above 0.7425-30 immediate resistance. {image}
Technically, this pair needs some consolidation around this position.
AUDUSD mid term fundamental things have been changed.

Market thought RBA cared about Job rates rather than inflation rate. Now, RBA told market they want to cut rate to achieve inflation target. in this case, one cut is far from enough, it require at least another 3 cuts. As major banks suggested RBA to do another cut by August.
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