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The Really Useless Thread

Quoting sisse
flop in the headline confirming the weakening in US numbers ... simple ride in play sisse
Hello sissie.
A newbie here. Need some clarity pls. Easy ride in euro will move towards which direction.
Quoting goosebone
Well see next week but if you neutral guys take it I'd love to hear the reasoning behind your call. Looking good for it atm.
The reason I chose NEUTRAL was due to:

1. We are in NEUTRAL OUTLOOK

2. NFP could have gone either way and to me that was a gamble or flipping a coin. I didn't need to gamble with 2 DIRECTIONS as I would rather take an educated and thought out trade to the DIRECTION most probable. I didn't know on this one.

3. I preferred letting the MARKETS digest the NEWS and let the WEEK finish to show me a tell-tale sign of what Market Expectations may be for the Short term EXHAUSTION Leg or the MID TERM Leg coming into play.

***There are plenty of cheap tickets still in play and I am not chasing everything that moves.

4. In a NEUTRAL Outlook for EU you want to fade the extreme to the Target not to Center. You can BUY or SHORT in NEUTRAL OUTLOOK but positioning is KEY. .1410 was at the Bottom of Weekly range (not to mention FLIP area .138X/.139x); and, even though I am SHORT Bias, the only FADE was a Soft Buy to Target in this Outlook. But, .1390 was a FLIP point and therefore having a STOP at .130X was not a place to have a STOP if .1390 is a FLIP along with NFP being a mover and shaker. TIMING and CAPITAL was more IMPT to me.

And most importantly, NEWS FLOWS were going to do their thing SHORT term and actual flows needed to come in as well to show truer since of direction for me. As a result, Neutral was the best option for me. And, with ADP #'s being soft and soft US data, my concern was this as well for NFP and wanted to wait and see if there were revisions and how market was going to respond. I felt soft #'s would ended up having both STP's hit. Almost did, if one was on the SHORT trade.

This is my take on it and not sure it is all correct but anything sisse wants to add would be appreciated. I love learning while we are watching the market,
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Hello sissie. A newbie here. Need some clarity pls. Easy ride in euro will move towards which direction.
nfp miss , soft us data over and over ...easy ride exemple : LMT BUY 1.140x -> TP1 => 1.148x TP2 => 1.170x | STP => 1.130x
Get Rich or Die Tryin
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} The reason I chose NEUTRAL was due to: 1. We are in NEUTRAL OUTLOOK 2. NFP could have gone either way and to me that was a gamble or flipping a coin. I didn't need to gamble with 2 DIRECTIONS as I would rather take an educated and thought out trade to the DIRECTION most probable. I didn't know on this one. 3. I preferred letting the MARKETS digest the NEWS and let the WEEK finish to show me a tell-tale sign of what Market Expectations may be for the Short term EXHAUSTION Leg or the MID TERM Leg coming into play. ***There are plenty of cheap...
very clear. thanks.
Quoting hoom
{quote} nfp miss , soft us data over and over ...easy ride exemple : LMT BUY 1.140x -> TP1 => 1.148x TP2 => 1.170x | STP => 1.130x
Cheers mate. Much appreciated. Dont seems to be happening today though😄
lets see how NY takes it ....

really getting confused with all this up & down .... after a long time board really confused me
Re-Incarnated
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} We are in NEUTRAL OUTLOOK 2. .......... I am SHORT Bias, ,
Mate, you have to learn to find your way.
You are relying heavily on someone else's analysis, you will not get those updates forever.
Why is it neutral ? Are we ranging, timing, macro FA, compressing for breakout, etc.

I don't understand how you embrace Neutral but you favor shorts?
News digested, softening of US economy confirmed. Not a game changer at all but early warnings to keep a close eye. Equities finding foot via no hikes June but the odds of taking last highs before the summer are fading rather quickly. Markets are aligning to hold the status quo for now until further data.

On the Euro, simple ride in an uneventful session so far. Tracking 1.148x for the W close.

Not much to do here with same levels, same plays, same all...

Chop expected across main markets until further data and as long as 'bastards' hold the bid in Equities ....there is not much to see in the Dollar side either until the risk off events start entering in the picture ....

Quoting build11
I know its still early but spike on the knee jerk reaction was 1.14795 .
Surprise surprise .... seem like market like to read the contest limits ...je je je, For the fifth time in 5 contest we failed by a couple of ticks to clear a winner in the contest with the initial flow ...though luck again for bulls ...

Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} The reason I chose.... due to...
...you are starting to sound like a trader that knows what his doing ... nothing to add there. ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
Easy ride not so easy. 1.1478 high

On the same page IMARICH1, good call imo

I waited all week for a trade today, and didn't take it. Had the numbers come out as a big overshoot, I suspect we'd have seen the high of the month and a ride back down the rest of the month...but alas, no dice. Have a good week guys.

Still long bias after that NFP, but without an entry somewhere ~200 pips below here, not particularly interested...any reason I had to short has been diminished. PPI next week....on friday of course.

Of note- if 1.2x handle is hit, I'll be perma bear unless the dollar collapses overnight
Quoting Pharm0r
Easy ride not so easy. 1.1478 high On the same page IMARICH1, good call imo I waited all week for a trade today, and didn't take it. Had the numbers come out as a big overshoot, I suspect we'd have seen the high of the month and a ride back down the rest of the month...but alas, no dice. Have a good week guys. Still long bias after that NFP, but without an entry somewhere ~200 pips below here, not particularly interested...any reason I had to short has been diminished. PPI next week....on friday of course. Of note- if 1.2x handle is hit, I'll...
Was really expecting a spike but hmmm.... what to say just totally ruined the day ....
Re-Incarnated
Quoting Pharm0r
... I suspect we'd have seen the high of the month and a ride back down the rest of the month....
Sadly NFP didn't really help the cause and neither FA or TA we have set the high of the month just yet. My 2 cents, 1.148x holding today will be very telling but not a done deal TA wise so keep an eye on the roll ...

Quoting Pharm0r
Easy ride not so easy. 1.1478 high On the same page IMARICH1, good call imo ....
Quoting sisse
flop in the headline confirming the weakening in US numbers ... simple ride in play
Quoting sisse
On the Euro, simple ride in an uneventful session so far. Tracking 1.148x for the W close.
Simple ride does not equal easy ride....'Simple' as in direct. The opposite of a zigzag move meaning 'without much or any movement against the original entry area '....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
Quoting sisse
{quote} Sadly NFP didn't really help the cause and neither FA or TA we have set the high of the month just yet. My 2 cents, 1.148x holding today will be very telling but not a done deal TA wise so keep an eye on the roll ... {quote} {quote}{quote} Simple ride does not equal easy ride....'Simple' as in direct. The opposite of a zigzag move meaning 'without much or any movement against the original entry area '.... sisse
my longs are open till next friday ... if doesn't reach a new high, closing all the long trades as after that all events are really drastic in june ....

coming to fed june hike is still on the table atleast for me .... i am really confused and will remain neutral or out of the market till next week ....

brexit what to say .....

will need your valuable thoughts ....

a question : How come such a bad numbers can be so easily digested by the big players ?
Re-Incarnated
Quoting sisse
{quote} Sadly NFP didn't really help the cause and neither FA or TA we have set the high of the month just yet. My 2 cents, 1.148x holding today will be very telling but not a done deal TA wise so keep an eye on the roll ... {quote} {quote}{quote} Simple ride does not equal easy ride....'Simple' as in direct. The opposite of a zigzag move meaning 'without much or any movement against the original entry area '.... sisse
could it be that real money is on sideline and with 1.16xx handle tested speculators took profit on longs ! mainly bears hold the upper hand with a slight bullish above 1.139x ...next week euro side we have german gdp for reference with a bunch of light data and USD side inflation data which keep ticking up .
on another note , risk off around the corner ...we have AAPL on the edge of a cliff !!
Get Rich or Die Tryin
Quoting sisse
Chop expected across main markets until further data and as long as 'bastards' hold the bid in Equities ....
ugghh, more flatline bullshit, prolly another grind to 2,100. The CB's have paralyzed the markets and only the HFT bots will make any money trading shitty rangebound pa. Somebody wake me up when the Brexit polls start freaking the bots out...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting sisse
{quote} Sadly NFP didn't really help the cause and neither FA or TA we have set the high of the month just yet. My 2 cents, 1.148x holding today will be very telling but not a done deal TA wise so keep an eye on the roll ... {quote} {quote}{quote} Simple ride does not equal easy ride....'Simple' as in direct. The opposite of a zigzag move meaning 'without much or any movement against the original entry area '.... sisse
Was not directed at you, someone removed post

Agreed @ your 1.1480 holding, I have bulls hitting targets in both EU and GU so pullback is expected....didn't want to take it without the NFP to back it.....you know, trying to trade this pesky fundamental viewpoint.

1.17xx is still expected, and further more 1.247x...but of course there's so much in between. Enjoy your weekend
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Was not directed at you, someone removed post Agreed @ your 1.1480 holding, I have bulls hitting targets in both EU and GU so pullback is expected....didn't want to take it without the NFP to back it.....you know, trying to trade this pesky fundamental viewpoint. 1.17xx is still expected, and further more 1.247x...but of course there's so much in between. Enjoy your weekend
I'm seeing 1.1390 having a valid 1.181 min for bulls? but after nfp, 1.133x for bears a valid min? leaving 1.126 before a LL still for that same 1.181 min for bulls... if they can take 1.17x

Daily and hourly below

Not sure on the validity of the 1h chart
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Quoting Don96
{quote} I'm seeing 1.1390 having a valid 1.181 min for bulls? but after nfp, 1.133x for bears a valid min? leaving 1.126 before a LL still for that same 1.181 min for bulls... if they can take 1.17x Daily and hourly below Not sure on the validity of the 1h chart {image} {image}
Will check it out tonight/tomorrow and update my outlook
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Will check it out tonight/tomorrow and update my outlook
cheers ​

did you have anything on EJ?
Quoting sisse
...-->For the actual flows (euro only)

Wide neutral range in play with lots of air in between so any overshoot/undershoots can have sharp legs. Simple maps in play for today 1,139x [check] js the flip for the news 1.144xunlocks the top side for a test 1.153x on undershoot/slightly soft reports. To the other side mini zigzag in play for a quick 1.128x.
... a rather dull day after NFP. Equities shaking out the losses with hikes fading in the horizon for the summer. No surprises across the board with Euro testing 1.139x for the weekly close.

We are set to lose 1.148x on the W triggering early alerts!!! on the end of neutral range on sight. Bulls starting to cough at the highs for the mid term swing and they may need an extra hand on top of FED kicking the hikes can beyond June to hold for much longer ....

For now not much to see with same levels, same trades, same all ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} 4. In a NEUTRAL Outlook for EU you want to fade the extreme to the Target not to Center. You can BUY or SHORT in NEUTRAL OUTLOOK but positioning is KEY. .1410 was at the Bottom of Weekly range (not to mention FLIP area .138X/.139x); and, even though I am SHORT Bias, the only FADE was a Soft Buy to Target in this Outlook. But, .1390 was a FLIP point and therefore having a STOP at .130X was not a place to have a STOP if .1390 is a FLIP along with NFP being a mover and shaker. TIMING and CAPITAL was more IMPT to me.
I hope somebody will correct me, I understood that in neutral outlook we trade outside zone to inside (if you trade at all). For example if we stay choppy for next week, trade area 1.13x-1.138 to 1.143-1.148 and 1.158-1.153 to 1.143-1.148. Is it right?
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