The Really Useless Thread

I am personally rather 'surprised' on how many takers on the neutral call for a NFP play but in general a very healthy and balance table this time which is expected giving the Neutral OUTLOOK and that we are sitting in a key flip area ...

In any case....TABLE CLOSED ...thanks all, updates later. GL all trading the next few sessions.

++++ Quick Call 5 ++++

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.140x (elapsed time 0 day 0 hours)

-> LMT BUY 1.140x -> TP1 => 1.148x TP2 => 1.170x | STP => 1.130x | max r:r -=> 3:1

hoom

gazpacho

yofi

asgcorp

Grinsakh

Neutral neither long or short STP is HIT in 3 trading days | max r:r => 3:1

PAStalker

IMARICH1

eborn

chester123

Vorex

build11

-> LMT SELL 1.140x -> TP1 => 1.132x TP2 => 1.11xx | STP => 1.150x | max r:r -=> 3:1

goosebone

Fadhl

Replicant

Arshamv

CommercialB

suntan

To wrap up ...

Dollar flirting with a major rejection for tomorrow, all eyes on 94.4x as it's the RAIN MAKER for the FX board for the rest of the year.
Euro back to square one and short term it look extremely feeble in both sides with the range empty for a couple of handles in both sides.
Yen starting to cough in the pullback and in desperate need for a push from the Dollar side as well as
Sterling which will be easily blown like a kite with the dollar side till the Brexit jitters are over.
...forgot to mention a rather unconventional instrument in this thread with CAD which has a very good & tradable opp in a failure to take the 1.29xx handle will unlock a rather quick clean sweep 1.22xx

Equally important than Dollar, US equities in choose your poison time for what it can be the farewell rally of the year (2050.xx unlocks -> 2090.xx for NFP)... Lots of action across the board ...here taking position and getting ready for the news legs ...

sisse

smoke signals from ADP (weak) and unemployment claims (higher) point to a weak NFP, but keep in mind, it's just smoke, & it ain't over til the fat lady sings. I am looking for one more pretty deep ^vix dip so I can load up on more long volatility trades for June/July and early retirement.

LMT BUY

A lot of traders are actually building the hype around the coming Non Farm Payrolls but what is more interesting is to see the outlook of the FED in this regards and what they have to say

I always miss these exercises as I'm long asleep, anyways I would have chosen Neutral.

Same here . I try to be in front of the computer by London open . ( 3 am my local time ) so I too miss most of these .

A close below 1.1415 yesterday would have also put me on the neutral side.

Gl all

i know that the table is closed still i am already in (long) from a couple of months .... if sisse agree to put me in ..

my laptop just got broke yesterday .... was working from cell phone..and its really pathetic .... even trading and going through the forum/thread

...here we go for a rather important NFP in a while.

--> On the Fundamental side:

Lots of data in play for today.

 

1. In a nutshell, expectations and numbers are shifting towards a softening of US numbers. However, employment has held steady (bar ADP earlier) and without a confirmation from the NFP front, bulls in equities will held steady for a few more weeks in MAY.
2. Equally important, we are inches away to enter in RMT mode. A solid / overshoot report will pretty much activate the start of rates as early as June and leave the door open for >2 hikes this year. While a flop will keep us in the status quo for the new few weeks as we get more inflation and core numbers.

--> On the TA side:

 

1. Check back posts for general references in the major instruments. On the key front Dollar key 94.4x to mark a long/mid term bottom before the summer.
2. Us equities (S&P for ref) 2050.xx unlocks a farewell rally to 2100 (while a flop opens a limited selloff 2020xx).
3. Gold 1289.xx holding a good NFP/W combo unlocks a sharp pullback towards 1190.xx before the summer.
4. OIL 44.1x as collateral of DOLLAR and Equities for a choppy rally $48.xx and the ext $50.xx.
5. On the currency front CAD in play with a overshoot and 1.29.xx holding to caught the early birds long in a sharp test 1.22xx for the following weeks. Euro with a wide range in play with eyes on 1.148x holding the W roll for early alerts.

-->For the actual flows (euro only)

Wide neutral range in play with lots of air in between so any overshoot/undershoots can have sharp legs. Simple maps in play for today 1,139x js the flip for the news 1.144x unlocks the top side for a test 1.153x on undershoot/slightly soft reports. To the other side mini zigzag in play for a quick 1.128x.

Any major overshoots or undershoots will only add momentum but a major overshoot will carry implications across the board and changes in key outlooks...

GL all already in or planing to trade.

sisse

flop in the headline confirming the weakening in US numbers ... simple ride in play

sisse

E/u :

What sort of reaction is this after such numbers ? Can any1 explain

I know its still early but spike on the knee jerk reaction was 1.14795 .

what are you reffering to, the spike, the pullback or both ?
how many NFPs have you played ?

initial spike: weak numbers, bad for USD, eur rise.
in play: rejection of 1.47

Markets are really forward looking, market is already looking passed these numbers.

I am talking about all the reaction ....

Same querry here. Am very confused.

E/U usually does't behave strictly according to the numbers, there are many more elements in play,
that is why most analists recomend trading related currencies at NFP, like UJ, it is easier to digest - you can check the chart.

We have to see NY reaction. That will decide 1280 or 1530 ??

Well see next week but if you neutral guys take it I'd love to hear the reasoning behind your call. Looking good for it atm.

​I think the real movement is starting now!