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  • #521
  • May 3, 2016 10:51pm May 3, 2016 10:51pm
NZDUSD

This pair has started to sell off, so far on the longer term charts its hasn't really gone through any significant levels, if you look at the d1 chart its still stacking bricks nicely, so at this stage I remain with a bull bias until significant levels can be breached to tell me otherwise.

On the topside 7130 looks like the next significant stop, on the low side its choppy and not very nice their is minor support at 6830/6840 but 6750 looks better at this stage.

Simon
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NU.png Size: 33 KB
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #522
  • May 3, 2016 11:05pm May 3, 2016 11:05pm
GBPNZD

If NU holds and dosen't break significant levels then this pair becomes a sell opportunity from 21150 onwards, need to see what PA does when it gets there.

Last week it couldn't rally it basically ran out of steam. The d1 and 4h chart show it best for the last few days, week, every time we had a big push up the follow through was weak on the next day or even next candle in some instances. In contrast the push downs were more significant clearly showing the bias in play to the sell side.

On the topside if 21220 breaks then we see 21470. on the lowside not much going to stop it going down 20750, then 20570 and then onto 20200 in the next few weeks.

Simon
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gnzd.png Size: 28 KB
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #523
  • May 3, 2016 11:21pm May 3, 2016 11:21pm
Quoting sweetaction
AJ now we have the news the picture becomes a little clearer, I mentioned maybe a couple of weeks back that Aussie was buying because essentially the market was buying the rumour of a rate cut and will sell the fact if and when it comes true and today we have been proven correct. For AJ the buying zone starts at below 7950 so we start to look closely at PA from there onwards, we had a fall of nearly 600 pips last week due to a news driven rumour and then retrace in yen however I envisage that there is only 100 or so more pips in this fall before...
So as I mentioned yesterday AJ missed my buying zone by 3 pips, we are currently around 90 pips up from here which doesn't excite me all that much, see what happens next, all the yen pairs look like they need a rest from going down so perhaps we'll see a day or two of up movement.

If you took it CJ hit the buying zone starting at 8360 yesterday, visible on 4h and d1 reinforcing it. not setting the world on fire as a trade there is a few in the account with this one.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #524
  • May 4, 2016 2:58am May 4, 2016 2:58am
EURNZD

Selling zone begins at 16730, getting close now, if gets through here then 16705 then 16775 after that are in play

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #525
  • May 4, 2016 3:03pm May 4, 2016 3:03pm
Simon,

AUDUSD:
Big buyers at 0.74531. If we got a Daily close above 0.74531, can we consider buying. What is your thought on this

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.png Size: 65 KB
  • #526
  • May 4, 2016 3:18pm May 4, 2016 3:18pm
Quoting sweetaction
EURNZD Selling zone begins at 16730, getting close now, if gets through here then 16705 then 16775 after that are in play Simon
EDIT: Please ignore this. I posted it wrongly
  • #527
  • Edited 6:03pm May 4, 2016 3:31pm | Edited 6:03pm
Hi Ramkirshnava, Im looking at it like this, If on the hourly chart when or before the day has finished, the candle closes below that area 7453 id say we will have a continuation to the downside targeting 7433 area hit on March the 10th. Would look for indication to go long setting stop loss point or so below previous slippage, as there was a previous rally i.e big money pushing through 7453 area on the March 16th, touching the 7552 area. Failing that would wait for 7416 area to be hit looking for a long position indication.
Dont take my word for it though, just showing my chain of thoughts

cheers!!

James

PS: Hi Simon would you say the 7416 area is too busy previously for a reasonable probability of a bounce long?
  • #528
  • May 4, 2016 6:18pm May 4, 2016 6:18pm
Quoting littlehelper
Hi Ramkirshnava, Im looking at it like this, If on the hourly chart when or before the day has finished, the candle closes below that area 7453 id say we will have a continuation to the downside targeting 7433 area hit on March the 10th. Would look for indication to go long setting stop loss point or so below previous slippage, as there was a previous rally i.e big money pushing through 7453 area on the March 16th, touching the 7552 area. Failing that would wait for 7416 area to be hit looking for a long position indication. Dont take my word for...
Boys

the zone starts at 7430 down to 7415, but I am not going to try and long it for now. I am going to wait and see what the markets next move is we had the buy the rumour sell the fact I want to see if this pattern get settled into again first.

I'll let others spend money to find out for now

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #529
  • May 4, 2016 6:22pm May 4, 2016 6:22pm
I try and stay clear of the USD pairs this week, with NFP, normal trading conditions get suspended this week because of it

that's not a market I will play in, even though this market doesn't have rules per say, we have to see some semblance of normality at least, which in my opinion you don't this week in the USD pairs.
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #530
  • May 4, 2016 6:25pm May 4, 2016 6:25pm
meanwhile in EURNZD we had 16735, hit last night, can't remember whether I mentioned this or not, anyway it was respected and shot back down the hill some. NZD dosen't look like its going to keep selling, you never know i suppose it's one that can really surprise you

on the downside 16475 looks possible

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #531
  • May 4, 2016 10:33pm May 4, 2016 10:33pm
AJ
finally got hit at 7950 yesterday its been ok at best since then, been good for 70 so far, I am going to take a peice of it now as it could easily come back and stop you out.
Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #532
  • May 4, 2016 10:34pm May 4, 2016 10:34pm
CJ
Started out ok but their wasn't a lot of upward thrust so it came back yesterday and took us out, we wait and see what the next opportunity brings
Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #533
  • May 4, 2016 10:37pm May 4, 2016 10:37pm
GJ
there was a small minor level between 15450 and 15465 which got taken out and held, I personally didn't take it cause I thought it would blow right through but for now its holding.
Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #534
  • May 4, 2016 10:40pm May 4, 2016 10:40pm
GBPNZD

I'll stick with yesterday's throughts that the sell zone opens at 21150 onwards, if 21220 breaks then we see 21470

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #535
  • May 4, 2016 10:41pm May 4, 2016 10:41pm
Thats pretty much all I am looking at so far this week, as mentioned earlier I don't really want to trade the USD this week, so yen pairs apart from UJ and the crosses look like the ones.
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #536
  • May 4, 2016 11:45pm May 4, 2016 11:45pm
Hi Sweetaction,

Enjoying you thread very interesting.I have a question if you dont mind. As far as entering a trade do you always wait for the candle to close on the time frame you are trading from or for an example if your 45 mins into an hour chart and price has hit a level you have strongly targeted and is moving in your intented direction would you enter then or do you have a hard and fast rule to let the candle close before entering.Any advice would be greatly appreicated.
  • #537
  • May 5, 2016 12:06am May 5, 2016 12:06am
Quoting OldBell
Hi Sweetaction, Enjoying you thread very interesting.I have a question if you dont mind. As far as entering a trade do you always wait for the candle to close on the time frame you are trading from or for an example if your 45 mins into an hour chart and price has hit a level you have strongly targeted and is moving in your intented direction would you enter then or do you have a hard and fast rule to let the candle close before entering.Any advice would be greatly appreicated.
Hi Oldbell

I dont wait for a close ever, conventional wisdom and the textbooks say you have to wait IMO that's complete B@llSH!T, the level is the level, you could argue that if it closes around the level then buyers and sellers are in equal amounts so this means there is no imblance between them this is what you don't want.

I want to see price come into a level hit pick up my order and then leave that's all I am looking for the speed at which this happens is the determining factor on whether I am confident or not with the trade if it hits and does nothing them I am getting out quickly, regardless if I loose a few pips or not, better than risk it breaking out in the wrong direction.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #538
  • May 5, 2016 3:59am May 5, 2016 3:59am
News can serve a purpose if news is bad and the currency dosen't go down in any significant way then be assured that the trend is either firmly up or their are no sellers willing to sell it and vice versa

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #539
  • Edited 5:15am May 5, 2016 5:02am | Edited 5:15am
Quoting sweetaction
{quote} Hi Oldbell I dont wait for a close ever, conventional wisdom and the textbooks say you have to wait IMO that's complete B@llSH!T, the level is the level, you could argue that if it closes around the level then buyers and sellers are in equal amounts so this means there is no imblance between them this is what you don't want. I want to see price come into a level hit pick up my order and then leave that's all I am looking for the speed at which this happens is the determining factor on whether I am confident or not with the trade if it hits...

Hi Simon, Going back to AU, on the hourly and 4 hour chart the 7433 area was hit then pulled back quickly above 7453. It has since hit 7500 area and on its way back down. Is there anything to take from what happened here from observation purposes.
For example the momentum in which it hit 7433 area then came back back fast. Although it has already played out could i have had enough information to know there was going to be a pullback to the 7500? Not for the purpose of trading the minor move but to be in tune with what is going on . My chain of thought is to target 7430 - 7410 then go long.

thanks for input

James

PS: Would you be able to recommend broker charts that are more visually accurate as i have several that i use but there are subtile differences thanks.
  • #540
  • May 5, 2016 5:29am May 5, 2016 5:29am
Quoting littlehelper
{quote} Hi Simon, Going back to AU, on the hourly and 4 hour chart the 7433 area was hit then pulled back quickly above 7453. It has since hit 7500 area and on its way back down. Is there anything to take from what happened here from observation purposes. For example the momentum in which it hit 7433 area then came back back fast. Although it has already played out could i have had enough information to know there was going to be a pullback to the 7500? Not for the purpose of trading the minor move but to be in tune with what is going on . My...
I'll answer your question by asking you to answer this one

Open the d1 chart and then locate the candle for the 21st April then have a look at the PA from this point on would you say its bearish or bullish ??

The PA from this point has taken out demand at 7630, 7510, 7460 and will soon be working on 7410, and many other minor levels so the critical question to ask yourself is this a pair you want to long right now ??

I try and look at charts without bias, this is incredibly difficult for humans to do and we have this (I want to be correct all time bias built in) but you have to face reality. I think I might of said yesterday that i think its smart to wait on this pair because a few demand levels haven been taken out we have had a shift from the RBA and its NFP tomorrow, so now we must await the decision of the market. Once this fall is done on the longer TF charts (d1 and w1 chart) how much it retraces is key to finding out the answer by the market. A full retrace and some would indicate a buying bias a 38% or 50% retrace would signal a shift back to a sellers bias. You can only trade smaller TF 30m, 1h, 4h charts once you understand which side of the fence is the safest at that point in time and you only get this by top down analysis and understanding the overall bias. Levels will tell you everything but in order to get the reaction you seek, its better to be on the side with the most bias.

In terms of your question regarding the levels you have mentioned price hasnt hit 7430 yet, and a retreat of 20 pips from the other levels is not good enough in my opinion, this tells me buyers and sellers are pretty much in agreeance (this is not what you want to see)

To get an idea of appropriate speed for this pair and where the imbalance might be, look at the chart and identify the big candles I bet they are more than 20 pips, if you indentify a level and it takes hours to move 20 pips this should tell you that you are trading in the wrong direction and should get out of it as quick as possible.

I don't want to discourage you so please don't think I am having a go at you or attacking your analysis as I am not, but I am very straight shooter and call it as a i see it in the moment I am looking at it

I hope this helps you, anything else I can help with just ask.

In terms of broker charts it years since I have used a broker chart so I dont have any recomendations. I use Prorealtime from France for my charts, they are not brokers so they are independent and reasomably cheap for the quality you are getting.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
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