Aggressively Simple Renko

Of course you can always have 2 accounts, one only for shorts and one for longs!

The issue I have with support and resistance is that it is sort of arbitrary in the grand scheme of things. I always used to trade with hard SL and Hard TP. The issue is that you can never fully know if a resistance or support will hold. You need to use SL in my opinion - bearing in mind this strategy is only about playing the numbers, no science in terms of entering the market...

remember that this is in testing mode.... This can be made much more profitable ( i am certain) however i am simply testing the profitability of the trade managament and understanding the effect of the Money management (when we get to that place).

There will be lots of losses in this system - i am hoping for a 50% win ratio.. hopefully it will be better. If that can be achieved (which currently I do not have overall, although i think that is because I am joining in the losing cycle of the entries!) then profitability should follow as the winners are generally so much bigger than the losers. If you have a look at the EURJPY line - 4 trades, 1 winner, and it is in the black... that is quite powerful.

The issue at the moment, which is why i still advise to trade either on demo, or not at all... is because the most trades that i have for any one pair, is 6 (Dow is not included as 6 of the trades were made as a test before this went live... and are only included to match up with the TE) on the GBPJPY, which is not enough to properly assess the profitability of any pair... I want at least 100 trades PER PAIR before I decide what to optimise (if i am still in the game at that point!!)

The only real robust testing has been on the USDCAD and the DOW, with shortened tests on EURUSD, GBPUSD and a couple of others, which i deleted the records for (well, i didn't save them)

On the other hand, one winning trade per pair should be enough to put them in the black...

Just locked in some more profit on the open DOW trade.

I am guaranteed a profit of $5.4, which is 108 pips locked in. Happy days!

I am hoping that this bullish move will continue for another 100 pips or so by my reckoning...

Very clear, very easy SL placement as a trailing stop...

In comparison..



I just wanted to go through the difference in terms of the mean renko, and the 1 hour chart (that this sort of bears relation too)

As you can see, there was a 100 gap to the bearish side... Would you want to get in on that action... would your sentiment change and maybe think this is going on to tank over the week?

Look at the next gap - 20 points again to the bearish. In this respect i would have been out with about 60 pips profit.

The other issue is where to place your stop... below s/r 1... a big risk on this trade, so it would have to be below s/r 2... about 70 points.

On top of that where do you take your profits? S/r 3? the black horizontal line below my SL line...?? that would be for about 40 points.. not great R:R... and then above the SL line, there is nothing recent to base a TP on... Previously, I would have issues with this, and would have got out of the trade after the gap down... especially since it has hit some resistance... but it has broken through, and I can bank another 50 points...

Hopefully you can see the absolute clarity in the Mean renko trailing strategy???

More to the point, this is REAL trading. With REAL money. Knowing what to do in a trade, is just comically easy. I am currently sitting on 10.11 (after swap), and know that i am guaranteed 5.4. If it closes out at 5.4 after being this high, that is still 50% of the move from buy to top... I would take that all day, because the trade has room to move (and generally price stalls, so you will move SL closer to the top of the move in any case), but it also gives me the chance of more upside especially in a trending chart such as the DOW.

Clear trade management... that is what gets you to money making... no subjectivity, just clear and simple! Loving it!

I have been doing some more testing around the drop down to the 63, and so far not looking promising. The concept is fine, but the real issue is that you miss on multiplying profits which the system is based on... so I have reverting back to taking the profits off the 126 chart (hence the big losers in the last couple of days).

Case in point - the DOW has had 4 valid signals on the 26 brick chart...

One of those trades would have gone to a full stop - so -$5 (-100 pips)

The other 3 trades would have had the results of:

1 - 100 pips
2 350 pips
3 350 pips
4 70 pips

So a net of 670 pips in about 3 weeks.

The same trades taking the TM rules on the 13 would have had the following:

1 -100
2 5
3 255
4 110

a net of 270 pips - quite the difference

These sort of results across the Forex pairs are repeated, which is why the account has gone over 10% of drawdown.

I will be doing an exercise over the weekend to track back on the trades taken so far to see how they have panned out. I have a strong feeling that the 63 (or 13 on the Dow) is ultimately hurting the account.

Looking at the logisitics of it, it is easy to see why - I am taking trades off the 126 chart, and applying the SL of the 126 chart to the 63, and then applying the TP off the 63 and applying it to a 126 entry... basically halving the profit, but doubling the risk...

I think i got carried away with limiting the risk of losing pips on the Profit side, without thinking how it ultimately hurts the account on the SL side.

So new (or OLD!) trading rules are entry on the 126, and move SL on the pullback on the 126 chart. SL moved to BE when the trade is 150 pips up. This should give plenty of room for the trade to breathe, There is no SL change until the trade is 150 in profit, so regarldess of the price action in the SL zone, or just above it. This just seems to create more losers in the long run.

I got a PM from some one warning of the dangers of messing around with optimisation - the testing shows that the orginal worked.

So effectively I am starting from scratch with the new old trading rules, and testing to see if i can get the account back up to BE.

By the way - it is really improtant to point anyone who is trading on demo, or backtesting to point to this thread. It shows the effect of going from back testing (even in a forward looking environment) to live testing... there are bits you just can not anticipate when the money is not really on the line...

Oh I just thought it was worth mentioning that the account was showing a +$20 from 5 trades yesterday, but they all got taken out because i did not move the SL to protect the trade... there was a couple with +70 pips, a couple with about +30, and one which was pretty much neutral the whole way thorugh... and then they tunred and ended up c. $25 down!!!

That is the risk with this strategy....

Happy trading every one!

This is what separates the Demo account from the live account.

Looking at my account, I have a floating profit of $61 (current at time of writing)

I currently have about $10 locked in (some will be winners, some will be losers) My account will be brought up to about 3% in drawdown... with some big gains on the individual lines.

It would be sooo easy to let the trades run their course in demo. Live, is a case of... should i just close out and take the profit.... it is about 600 pips of profit.

Ultimately, I am not going to be taking the profit and running.

I know that the strategy should have +ive equity value over the long term, so taking profit now, could seriously harm that Equity value.

I should imagine that I will be only able to take half of the profit on offer at the moment, but there is still the possibility that for instance the GBPUSD trade could go to 1000 pips... unlikely, but still possible. Every test i have done shows a big run up at some point in the last year. I could 'regret' it... but the whole point of mechanical systems should take the decision making away from you and let the numbers take care of themselves.... Easier said than done.... At the same time, if i can make $10 profit for every $5 I lose, pretty soon, the account will be exponentially better off over the long run...

Hello everyone, I'm looking for a renko graphic indicator that warns me when a candle closes below the moving average with EMAIL and PUSH notification (SELL), and when the candle closes above the moving average (BUY), for fafore helped me to find it?

Right, I have had a massive overhaul of the system - I think it was starting to follow the true path, but there were some issues with it, that meant I wanted to take another look at it and start building from the ground up, and start to reengineer what it was doing.

I have started the new and improved system, and so far it is working exactly as hoped.

The only issue with this new and improved method, is that the margin requirements are quite steep, so I have had to bring forward the capitalisation plan - not a big deal, as I have a hard stop still of where I want to get out if needed - in terms of an account balance Stop loss - not a trading stop loss!

If you have been following you will see that there will always be a trade open, and there are heavy requirements for when things start moving into the red, and all I need is a couple of candles before a stop loss is moved to break even - generally speaking, as there are times when it is left open. The strategy is now focusing upon a quick entry, quick exit, trying to keep the risk low against a possible big move- this is really about catching the wave... paddling until a massive squall comes along. This has more to do with being massively aggressive when that wave comes, but only adding under certain circumstances. At just about any one time, you should be able to see how aggressive this is... earlier today, I think I had about 5 positions open on one currency... in my testing, at one point it was up to 17 open positions... this sounds crazy, but it is for the most part very very safe trading, and once a trade picks up a certain amount of momentum, I am guaranteed a win.

Just to add, this is no longer relying on hedging, and to me knowledge this is nothing to do with bucket or grid trading - both of which depend on a totally different method to what is being carried out here.

I should point out that two 'bucket' loads of trades have been manually stopped out by me which have largely contributed to the losses, and is not down to the system- but I needed to end that current phase of development.

haha- time of writing 1185 pips.


TODAY!!!

hello roland I am working with renko but use setting with 10 pips, and sma 14, there is no programmer to make an expert advisor?

Hi Mickael, always good to see people working off the beaten track... which Renko charts certainly seem to be!

Are you asking if I know a programmer who will program your system, or get them to program mine?

I have an EA running taking care of the running of the system and can point you in the direction of who did mine if needed?

you can not share your EA? I'm not a forex expert and I do not know how to do programming

Sorry Mickael, I wont be sharing the EA, for a couple of reasons:

1) it is in testing (so would not want to push things out to people when I have no idea if it will work in the long term)
2) It has a fair amount of manually input and monitoring
3) It does not have a set SL or TP, so there is a fair amount of risk involved in it, these shoudl be looked after in the trading rules, but bugs can happen!
4) Because it was developed for me, it would not make much sense to anyone else!
5) I have invested time and effort into the development of the EA
6) I have invested cash into the EA!

By the way, you can go to fiverr and get people to code the EA for you if you want your strategy automated. I have tried, and it takes a lot of testing, but it is good for when you want to get a highlevel overview of a strategy, and get some rough figures... You just need to be really clear - it is not the same experience as going through elance or something similar where i find the level of coding far better, but you also have to spend more money on it!

[quote = rolandW; 8908347] {quote} dispiace Mickael, non sarò condividendo l'EA, per un paio di motivi: 1) è in fase di test (quindi non vorrebbe spingere le cose alla gente quando non ho idea se lavorerà a lungo termine) 2) ha una discreta quantità di input e di controllo 3) non ha una SL set o TP manualmente, per cui vi è una discreta quantità di rischio coinvolti in essa, questi shoudl essere accuditi in negoziazione regole, ma gli insetti possono accadere! 4) Perché è stato sviluppato per me, non avrebbe molto senso a chiunque altro! 5) ho investito tempo e sforzi nello sviluppo della EA 6) ho investito denaro nella EA! [/ Quote]
OK thanks

My EA has started acting very funny, so taking it offline. All to do with the new build - so I am putting it on a test account to test the effectiveness of it. It seemed to work prefectly for the first couple of days, but then there are some differences in the way that it was opening the multiple trades at the wrong times... Back to the drawing board and ironing out the bugs!

Right, I have had me EA running offline for the last couple of weeks, and it has been completely out of whack!

Happily, I seem to have located the errors, so it is now being updated, and it will run on a demo to test the EA is running fine, and then the live test will continue. It is pretty good though, as it has allowed me to update and include a few aesthestic features in there which is good just from a glance to make sure how it is performing, above and beyond my TE/account breakdown - just as a sense check!

Will update in the next couple of weeks as it progresses.

keep up the good work Roland. I am looking at simple Renko trading also. What size brick do you use?

I am happy to use any.. they are all sort of relative. Standard size on the Mean renko brick I am looking at the moment is 10, and manually trading my system would usually net about 160 pips max, but because I am happy to add positions in certain circumstances, the total delivered pips could be up to 400-500 per situation.

However, I am also looking and testing whether the same methodology could be used on scalping trades and it is something I am looking into at the moment... that could be on the 2 or 3 pip brick. At the same time, I want to be able to account for spread in this as well... as this is where the killer is on the scalping method - small losses turn into big ones, just because the spread eats and doubles up your losses.. Just working on a couple of solutions for it!