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AUD/USD

  • #96,941
  • May 3, 2016 12:31am May 3, 2016 12:31am
Quoting Fx_Anil
As expected, RBA cut down the cash rate by 25 bps, dragged the AUDUSD down; though, a break below 0.7500 isn't there, which in-turn signals continued strength on the part of the pair. {image}
more a function of USD weakness I think, which won't last for ever
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #96,942
  • May 3, 2016 12:42am May 3, 2016 12:42am
Quoting Fx_Anil
As expected, RBA cut down the cash rate by 25 bps, dragged the AUDUSD down; though, a break below 0.7500 isn't there, which in-turn signals continued strength on the part of the pair. {image}
Its only early days yet.

Is it AUD strength or USD weakness?

Maybe check other pairs will answer this.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,943
  • May 3, 2016 1:21am May 3, 2016 1:21am
I still do not see any reason for audusd to drop any further as the rate cut comes too little, too late. target .87xx - .89xx is still intact
  • #96,944
  • May 3, 2016 1:23am May 3, 2016 1:23am
Quoting Ill-b-back
We are in the clappers Rate cut after rate cut and and threat of losing AAA rating. A govt that can't make a decision and another that doesn't think before sending billions down the toilet. Thing is, rates are so low now that it just inspires fear rather than spending. Past the point of no return until we are rescued again from abroad
This is not the Government but the RBA board. However, you are right , this is terrible news for the country. The current RBA board will go down as the worst in history.It is due to change in September, hopefully someone with some sort of awareness will get on there.
The country has the highest household debt in the developed world and they do this. Govt. debt is still at the lower end despite what the media keep feeding us, facts are facts. However, this will just encourage spending by those who still can't afford to and push up the very property prices that everyone is moaning about. Hopeless economic decision. It seems this Board is keen for us to catch one of those recessions we have missed.
  • #96,945
  • May 3, 2016 1:28am May 3, 2016 1:28am
Quoting socnau
i see no reason for aud to devaluate. in my opinion, audusd will rise to .87xx-.89xx within 1-to-3-month time. you are welcomed to short
Thanks. No other reason but a rate cut now and another one in September and more to come next year, also a housing bubble about to burst worse than the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
The banks are already falsifying credit applications from people and inflating their income just to make their mortgages look more AAA rated when there's already over $2 trillion in mortgage debt owed to the big four banks, in a $1.6 trillion economy...
Now with further rate cuts investment borrowing which is pushing real estate prices up, will only continue until first developers and builders start going bust and bankrupt on their debt. Watch the house of cards crumble in a matter of months dragging the whole country down.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #96,946
  • May 3, 2016 1:29am May 3, 2016 1:29am
In the end the market will have it's way despite what some bureaucrats do with rates. Some people forget that currencies are valued relative to others, small attempts to change from one end won't change the market long term. AUD drop may be short lived before it returns to what it was doing. USD strength required to really make a difference.
  • #96,947
  • May 3, 2016 1:39am May 3, 2016 1:39am
Quoting Greeny
In the end the market will have it's way despite what some bureaucrats do with rates. Some people forget that currencies are valued relative to others, small attempts to change from one end won't change the market long term. AUD drop may be short lived before it returns to what it was doing. USD strength required to really make a difference.
This and therefore I'll more confidently short AUD/NZD than this pair.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #96,948
  • May 3, 2016 1:58am May 3, 2016 1:58am
Quoting stulic
{quote} Thanks. No other reason but a rate cut now and another one in September and more to come next year, also a housing bubble about to burst worse than the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The banks are already falsifying credit applications from people and inflating their income just to make their mortgages look more AAA rated when there's already over $2 trillion in mortgage debt owed to the big four banks, in a $1.6 trillion economy... Now with further rate cuts investment borrowing which is pushing real estate prices up, will only continue until...
Don't blame the banks or even the government on this one. Blame the boneheaded public that think it is their right to borrow more than they can afford to get whatever they desire in this age of entitlement, then curse everyone else when it goes pear shaped on them. Supported by a way off track RBA board that panders to the masses by cutting rates. Yes, things are going to get tougher in Oz, job cuts, more expensive property and when inflation does turn....watch out.

I concur on your confidence or lack thereof in shorting AUD, more to play out yet. I think .83 is well and truly on the cards again.
  • #96,949
  • May 3, 2016 2:01am May 3, 2016 2:01am
Quoting Greeny
{quote} Don't blame the banks or even the government on this one. Blame the boneheaded public that think it is their right to borrow more than they can afford to get whatever they desire in this age of entitlement, then curse everyone else when it goes pear shaped on them. Supported by a way off track RBA board that panders to the masses by cutting rates. Yes, things are going to get tougher in Oz, job cuts, more expensive property and when inflation does turn....watch out. I concur on your confidence or lack thereof in shorting AUD, more to play...

In fact there is nothing to be excited about........ the 7580 - 7600 support is there to play.

We still don't have a convincing sell down here. The sell volume is very very weak on this around.
  • #96,950
  • May 3, 2016 2:01am May 3, 2016 2:01am
Quoting stulic
{quote} This and therefore I'll more confidently short AUD/NZD than this pair.
short aud long nzd?
im thinking just the opposite
  • #96,951
  • May 3, 2016 2:06am May 3, 2016 2:06am
Quoting alayinizAMK
{quote} short aud long nzd? im thinking just the opposite
I seriously cannot see why, I see the pair below parity for years to come.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #96,952
  • May 3, 2016 2:13am May 3, 2016 2:13am
Quoting stulic
{quote} I seriously cannot see why, I see the pair below parity for years to come.
i don't have much to convince you with unfortunately
that's just how im feeling after stalking aud for some days.
My nzdj chart says down too. Have some small clues right now but could be wrong.
  • #96,953
  • May 3, 2016 2:25am May 3, 2016 2:25am
Aud and Nzd, It went up 50 pips. Buyers still appetite...
  • #96,954
  • May 3, 2016 2:27am May 3, 2016 2:27am
2 possible scenarios

First possible outcome, the big bear is real.

Second possible outcome, because of the rate cut, the bull missed a bar close at the 7680 - 700 level. If the bear still doesn't generate more volume to break convincingly lower than current support......... we may see a consolidation and then a quick move back up to grab this missed bar close. That means back to pre rate cut level.

So the little bears here haven't generated enough volume to render the 7850 target void.
  • #96,955
  • May 3, 2016 2:47am May 3, 2016 2:47am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Its only early days yet. Is it AUD strength or USD weakness? Maybe check other pairs will answer this.
I would go with both as the central banker dropped its inaction after a year and the USD is weakening against majority of its counterparts due to FOMC dormancy. But the quick reaction was given to RBA and after the plunge the pair is reversing now with broader weakness of the US Dollar.

Thanks
  • #96,956
  • May 3, 2016 2:48am May 3, 2016 2:48am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} more a function of USD weakness I think, which won't last for ever
Agree with you
  • #96,957
  • May 3, 2016 2:49am May 3, 2016 2:49am
there is the Aust Govt budget tonight;
still could be more down to come from fundamentals.
Then we could come back to the trend, I had a buy call today from someone and told them about the days decisions to come.
  • #96,958
  • May 3, 2016 3:00am May 3, 2016 3:00am
closed some au
audnzd not moving much right now but crossing my fingers for it.
moving towards AN slowly even though makes me feel
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  • #96,959
  • May 3, 2016 4:11am May 3, 2016 4:11am
Quoting alayinizAMK
closed some au audnzd not moving much right now but crossing my fingers for it. moving towards AN slowly even though makes me feel {image}
will wait for audn cancel for now
  • #96,960
  • May 3, 2016 5:17am May 3, 2016 5:17am
Quoting alayinizAMK
{quote} will wait for audn cancel for now
Just slowly stacking up little shorts but if we break 1.08 tonight will increase sizes. Giving up above 1.0870 for the time being.
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Don't get mad, get even!
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