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The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,241
  • Apr 29, 2016 2:53pm Apr 29, 2016 2:53pm
sisse,

Looking at your chart is what kept me from giving an answer about Fading it. We are at the Extreme and EXHAUSTION area. The Hold your Guns says to me on not to enter and wait. But, maybe with that LIMIT line setting the bottom of the EXHAUSTION level is a place to put in a BUY and small stop.

I don't know the correct answer. But, one answer I do know is I am not going to trade it. I need to wait for NFP now to make some decisions. I am still in my crazy SHORT in EU and GU. Yes, wrong, wrong ,wrong but I may still make it out alive and learn from all of this the hard way! I definitely will be doing things different the next go around-----WAY DIFFERENT!
  • #140,242
  • Apr 29, 2016 2:59pm Apr 29, 2016 2:59pm
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} hi Imarich1, I have a question for you ....

1) According to you what is the main trend going on right know in E/u.....+..... north or south with maximum targets ?

MAIN TREND (Short Term)CURRENTLY is : NORTH

Short term : couple of days/weeks I think 1.17XX with Ext to 1.18XX MAX

Mid term : Couple of weeks/months I think .050X to .04XX with ext to .02XX

Long Term : Couple of years/minimum five years/decade
I think it could be around .096xx; but, it could range from there to 1.05
  • #140,243
  • Apr 29, 2016 3:15pm Apr 29, 2016 3:15pm
Quoting IMARICH1
...I may still make it out alive and learn from all of this the hard way! I definitely will be doing things different the next go around-----WAY DIFFERENT!
Let me give you a couple of hints. Like always form the basics up:.

1. Common sense prevails over any TA:

I don't care if you have the Holy Grail itself, the perfect MACD/Whatever crossover, the Mofu/Fib what have you ... This will avoid you 95% of wrong stupid entries TAwise:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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--> Just look at the daily bar and the weekly range. Its Friday, 2 or 3 or 5 hour before the close, 3/4 part of the world are on Holiday next week including the biggest FX market in the world (London). No news, no reports,, etc.

We are nearly 100 ticks above last mini break out and nearly 250 ticks up for the week...Who on earth is in the market and wiling too step to the other side in the middle of nowhere? What makes you think just out of pure common sense that taking the other side is a good idea timing wise.

--> I don't care if this is the high of the year next week or if my outlook is extreme sell/buy etc ... Believe me you will be surprise how many people just don't notice this simple concept. For example today ...the move is gone...there is nothing to see or do...sweating when to enter when the market is so deep against or in favour of your potential trade with nothing and no player left in the table for the week or day ....

--> So rule number one: Need to recognise when a market is gone for the day/week ...turn off your charts in that instrument and move on. Result: Guarantee improvement of at least 80% less stupid bad timing entries ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,244
  • Apr 29, 2016 3:28pm Apr 29, 2016 3:28pm
sisse,

I get that taking a trade now to the other side (FADING) is pointless. However, you have said to FADE the extremes. SO FADING them MUST coincide with proper TIMING (news event, major resistance, Shift in Outlook) ect.....

This week has been a BULL move though I did think the drop to .12XX may bring momentum to the Bears had GDP#'s been stronger.

But, I appreciate the Visuals as they are helpful. Am I correct to not take a FADE while in the EXHAUSTION Level at any time? This move from .05XX still doesn't make sense to me based on EU economy compared to US and Rates; but, it doesn't matter that it doesn't makes sense. It is where it is at because BIG PLAYERS want it there.
  • #140,245
  • Apr 29, 2016 3:34pm Apr 29, 2016 3:34pm
2. Basic price analysis give you more information TAwise that any indicator or tool in the arsenal ...and thats a fact:

Some hints to start with price and chart reading:

-> I don't care who or why, you need to know where and what side is in control in a particular area:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Ok here is obvious that bulls break up. Whoever is riding that leg will stay long until: Either they take profits or they get stopped out. There is no other option so can you point only with this chart:

a. If longs has taken profits?

b. If you where long and markets start moving down where would you start worrying?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,246
  • Edited 3:52pm Apr 29, 2016 3:41pm | Edited 3:52pm
A. Longs have not taken profit

B. I would want to capture some gains so I would exit if price went below RED candle at Top by the Big Bull candle as it looks like there was more buying here and if it goes below it, it may start profit taking back to Resistance point. But, I am not sure on this answer.
  • #140,247
  • Apr 29, 2016 3:41pm Apr 29, 2016 3:41pm
I know its generally not very popular to look at a monthly chart but here it is again. For my taste too early to go short, too late to go long.
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  • #140,248
  • Apr 29, 2016 3:54pm Apr 29, 2016 3:54pm
Quoting SirMcPip
I know its generally not very popular to look at a monthly chart but here it is again. For my taste too early to go short, too late to go long. {image}
Agree. We are closing the 3er smaller monthly candle in 16 years....its going to blow soon and is going to be strong ...

Quoting IMARICH1
A. Longs have not taken profit B. I would want to capture some gains so I would exit if price went below RED candle at Top by the Big Bull candle as it looks like there was more buying here. But, I am not sure on this answer.
Ok assuming your analysis is right (give you some final hints in a few candles later):

--> There you have a key answer based on price alone. Your exit break is the entry short assuming you wanted to short for whatever reason so if you just sat patiently for 4 days up and then you waited for a 1 day down and now you have a trigger...not in a rush, not aiming to the ultimate tick ...just purely on your perception of price...

Attached Image


As you can see if you have traded patiently ....

Question is now lets assume:

1. If you shorted in the point you mentioned where would you aim as price based only target (based only in the range in display !!!)?
2. If you are trader B and his outlook is buy ...he is desperate in need of a trigger ...Can you spot where is it? or is maybe not enough information in the chart for trigger long yet?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,249
  • Apr 29, 2016 4:06pm Apr 29, 2016 4:06pm
1. That's tricky....because you say to FADE or SHORT to Target and NOT CENTER. In this range, the last red candle is already past the Center. I would have exited at the the 2nd to last red candle going down; but, I also know wherever there is breakout that this level Support or R gets retested.

So, maybe I would exit 2/3 prior to Center at 2nd to last red candle and 1/3 to breakout area if it got there with a tight stop at where I took profit.

2. Not enough yet for me to Long
  • #140,250
  • Apr 29, 2016 4:15pm Apr 29, 2016 4:15pm
Extreme edgy M closes in Yen, Euro (failed to hold 1.143x !)and especially Dollar ... all on key areas. Putting back the entire FX board on the trading workspace for next month ... we are aligning for some real mover and shakers in the upcoming weeks....

sisse

Quoting IMARICH1
1. That's tricky....because you say to FADE or SHORT to Target and NOT CENTER. In this range, the last red candle is already past the Center. I would have exited at the the 2nd to last red candle going down; but, I have also know wherever there is breakout that this level Support or R gets retested. So, maybe I would exit 2/3 prior to Center at 2nd to last red candle and 1/3 to breakout area if it got there with a tight stop at where I took profit. 2. Not enough yet for me to Long
Ok stop right there ... Forget about mids, and etc .. You want to understand PURE price action first before any position management...

From a strictly Price Action TA point of view you said there is not enough info for an entry Long so why on earth would you close your shorts?

So let me ask you again if there is not enough info for a long entry:

1. Where should you aim based on the chart alone your shorts? or if you don't have enough data just say so and we move a few bars....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,251
  • Apr 29, 2016 4:18pm Apr 29, 2016 4:18pm
If I forget what you say about mids and center; then, I would have watched how PA responded at support. I need to see how PA responds there before BUYING or CLOSING my shorts then.

Being able to Look LEFT more would give me more info!
  • #140,252
  • Apr 29, 2016 4:24pm Apr 29, 2016 4:24pm
Quoting IMARICH1
If I forget what you say about mids and center; then, I would have watched how PA responded at support. I need to see how PA responds there before BUYING or CLOSING my shorts then. Being able to Look LEFT more would give me more info!
Ok so you held shorts aiming for support ...

Let see what happen in the next bar:

Attached Image


1. ...would you change your mind?
2. Is there any potential long entry for Trader B ?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,253
  • Apr 29, 2016 4:25pm Apr 29, 2016 4:25pm
1. No

2. Perhaps at support but I need more info...
  • #140,254
  • Edited Apr 30, 2016 3:29am Apr 29, 2016 4:27pm | Edited Apr 30, 2016 3:29am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Ok so you held shorts aiming for support ... Let see what happen in the next bar: {image} 1. ...would you change your mind? 2. Is there any potential long entry for Trader B ? sisse
24-08-2015 black monday daily chart eurusd.ı have some good memo
  • #140,255
  • Apr 29, 2016 4:29pm Apr 29, 2016 4:29pm
Quoting IMARICH1
1. No 2. Perhaps at support but I need more info...
and now?

Attached Image


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,256
  • Apr 29, 2016 4:32pm Apr 29, 2016 4:32pm
1. No, I would not exit yet. I would have a stop above my entry as that may act as Resistance for now. I still would not take a LONG until it reaches support and I examine PA and news and ect.....
  • #140,257
  • Apr 29, 2016 4:52pm Apr 29, 2016 4:52pm
Quoting IMARICH1
1. No, I would not exit yet. I would have a stop above my entry as that may act as Resistance for now. I still would not take a LONG until it reaches support and I examine PA and news and ect.....
...ok so look what happened ..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bars6.png Size: 110 KB


As you can see you would have never reached your target as you would have been stopped out and our trader B would have never take a long either ...basically you just recreated some of the threads in FF ...

Lets go back to the point of this post today:

-> I don't care who or why, you need to know where and what side is in control in a particular area:

Whoever is riding that leg will stay long until: Either they take profits or they get stopped out....

To wrap up this point and strong TA hint.

--> Think about value areas. For whatever reason the bulls who bought at the initial breakout (there is a FA reason behind btw ...but thats not for today) are in control. This is the advantage of daily and weekly charts. REAL money is in it.

--> They found value buying around that break out and they attempted 3 times to push to the highs and failed ...whatever the reason for that (also strong FA and TA reasons) is irrelevant for this point.

--> What is important is looking for a valid/decent retrace [of course] and then look for "Rejection of a low and break of the highs of the rejected candle" ... your 'homework' is to find those in the above chart (there are at least 3 at simple glance) .... there you have the second and final hint of the day ...that will dramatically reduce those stupid/impulsive entries ...

GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,258
  • Edited 6:01pm Apr 29, 2016 5:40pm | Edited 6:01pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...ok so look what happened .. {image} As you can see you would have never reached your target as you would have been stopped out and our trader B would have never take a long either ...basically you just recreated some of the threads in FF ... Lets go back to the point of this post today: -> I don't care who or why, you need to know where and what side is in control in a particular area: Whoever is riding that leg will stay long until: Either they take profits or they get stopped out.... To wrap up this point and strong TA hint. --> Think...

Superb!
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  • #140,259
  • Apr 30, 2016 5:52am Apr 30, 2016 5:52am
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} I think it could be around .096xx; but, it could range from there to 1.05
Hi Imarich1,

To be very frank I don’t see your trading levels to be bad but I was late in response as Sisse had already taken all my words and explained it to you.

My rules in trading :

1st and the most important Never go against the trend whether its short/mid/long term, coz at one point if you have placed a wrong trade in the correct trend one way or the other you will get a chance to get your ass out in which your patience is being literally tested every sec/min/hour.
2. never ever overleverage your a/c.
3. if you think that your strategy is saying xxx/yyy pair is going towards abc level do it go place a trade what are you waiting for, you will only learn from your own mistakes.
4.From my last 7 years experience no any indicators work always prefer a plain chart( I guess I have tested every possible indicator in the internet).
5.one technique is will give just try once, Suppose you got a major flirting level price will pierce it from north to south & south to north atleast 5-6 times then only it will get a direction (I call it a earning zone) but have to be very cautious.
6.timing plays a very vital role in the game.(No one can ignore)
7. last but not the least your own trading strategy will help you out in this business, but please don’t jump from strategy to strategy to earn quickly.

People think I don’t have subscriber so people don’t listen to me, that’s ok I am fine with all this… I am not here to grow my subscriber’s list … I am here to learn from all of you….

Regards

PJ
Re-Incarnated
  • #140,260
  • May 2, 2016 3:25am May 2, 2016 3:25am
Quoting USD-Bear
USDOLLAR nearing support, EU 1,15 - 1,16 possible imo USDOLLAR W1: {image}
might be there, trying some EU-shorts @ 1.1480

USDOLLAR D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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