The Really Useless Thread | Page 7012 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,221
  • Apr 29, 2016 8:39am Apr 29, 2016 8:39am
Bears knocked down for the open and for the look of it ...it may be just by a couple of ticks ...but rules are rules for this exercise ...

++++ Quick Call 4 [update 3.1]++++

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.144x (elapsed time 1 day 16 hours)


-> LMT SELL 1.138x [check] -> TP => 1.118x | STP => 1.143x [check] | r:r -=> 4:1


-> LMT SELL 1.138x

hoom, Replicant, Arshamv, Pixie666, PipJet, .IMARICH1, workingforex


> LMT SELL / -> LMT BUY

PAStalker, Grinsakh, Pharm0r, glassblower


--> Hint/something to thing for bears:

  1. Would it make any difference to take(fade) the same level in the way out instead of the way in? or simple this is it ...is going up and you were wrong?

​In any case, here is the standing table at the end of the month:

sisse

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2016-04-29 at 14.33.25.png Size: 280 KB
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,222
  • Apr 29, 2016 8:46am Apr 29, 2016 8:46am
Nice update. To be honest, this looks like my live trading pattern: win some, but almost always lose the same amount a few days/weeks later. Still over trading and not cutting losses... valuable lessons learned.
  • #140,223
  • Apr 29, 2016 9:02am Apr 29, 2016 9:02am
This is looking more and more like trader's therapy with dr. Sisse. We're all in a group session at the moment. Easily one of my favourite threads of this forum.
  • #140,224
  • Apr 29, 2016 9:02am Apr 29, 2016 9:02am
Quoting eborn
Nice update. To be honest, this looks like my live trading pattern: win some, but almost always lose the same amount a few days/weeks later. Still over trading and not cutting losses... valuable lessons learned.
Same here..

Won some couple of trades, and overnight had some pending sell stops. My account just got wiped out.
  • #140,225
  • Apr 29, 2016 9:06am Apr 29, 2016 9:06am
Quoting ExForX
This is looking more and more like trader's therapy with dr. Sisse. We're all in a group session at the moment. Easily one of my favourite threads of this forum.

From the little I have learnt so far from this thread, there is an improvement in my trades. Only that I'm yet to have a perfect exit plan, then as Pharmor hinted, I'm yet to get TIMING right.
  • #140,226
  • Apr 29, 2016 9:08am Apr 29, 2016 9:08am
has the "sell in may and go away" already began? Indices seem to be falling over themselves rather than going for ATHs, is this just month end flows or ahs the trend truely changed?
  • #140,227
  • Apr 29, 2016 9:43am Apr 29, 2016 9:43am
Quoting sisse
Would it make any difference to take(fade) the same level in the way out instead of the way in? or simple this is it ...is going up and you were wrong?
Depend on how you gauge exhaustion on the way out..if the blue circle is your definition of exhaustion, no difference on this occasion as the stop would have still be taken out..how far out is the way out...waiting for the extreme of the range being hit in the current short-term range?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd29_04_16.PNG Size: 114 KB
  • #140,228
  • Apr 29, 2016 9:47am Apr 29, 2016 9:47am

  1. Would it make any difference to take(fade) the same level in the way out instead of the way in? or simple this is it ...is going up and you were wrong?

​
1. First, I am disappointed in my standings and my last 2 trades. I should not have been in either trade. I should have waited until after the GDP # since FOMC was as expected and (ONLY a little HAWKISH if..if..if...GDP data would have complimented this view). Therefore, I should NOT have been in this trade and stuck to my guns to wait and position after the MARKET showed the DIRECTION.

Just because sisse OPENS the TABLE doesn't mean the TABLE should be played. This is what I learned! Just because the MARKET is OPEN doesn't mean it should be played. TIMING is EVERYTHING.

The SHORT at .138X was not a bad trade since it was taken at the TOP of range and with Outlook: NEUTRAL you can FADE or SHORT the Extremes to Target but not to CENTER. But, with the GDP # and Personal Income up and Consumer Spending down; inflation is not ticking up much which dampens the RATE Hike. Therefore, FADING at the .138X Extreme would have been a wait and see approach trade if .138X was going to hold. It did not and fading the extreme now is risky because of the AIR between .14XX and .17XX.

I am not good at knowing how to FADE an extreme because in these conditions, if I FADED it, PA would just go higher. I may get 20 to 30 pips on the FADE at different R levels but I would have to be good at R:R and I am not there yet in my trading.

And, honestly, I am trigger shy these days. I have been in MID TERM SHORT(WEEKS/MONTHS) mode for awhile as US DOLLAR should be STRONGER than EU and GU IMO and my BIAS affects my trading.

  • #140,229
  • Apr 29, 2016 9:50am Apr 29, 2016 9:50am
Lots of action in the opening range, movers and shakers everywhere. US equities losing foot and they are set to loss 2100.xx for the close. Only a 'miracle' will do it today. The high of 2016 is around the corner.

Fifth v important update from the FED/M combo:

--> Changing mid term outlook in US equities from Neutral to Soft Sell but leaving short term outlook in Neutral till NFP next week ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,230
  • Apr 29, 2016 10:47am Apr 29, 2016 10:47am
Quoting IMARICH1
I am not good at knowing how to FADE an extreme because in these conditions, if I FADED it, PA would just go higher. I may get 20 to 30 pips on the FADE at different R levels but I would have to be good at R:R and I am not there yet in my trading.

And, honestly, I am trigger shy these days. I have been in MID TERM SHORT(WEEKS/MONTHS) mode for awhile as US DOLLAR should be STRONGER than EU and GU IMO and my BIAS affects my trading....
Ok let's check some TA basics now you have the picture clearer on how to stick to your guns, maps timing and outlook .... Lets go back to the first chart we discuss at the beginning of the month ...as always in the basics is 90% of the answers to your questions...

Here same chart 1 month later ...have a look again ....we'll talk later...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Outlook sell.png Size: 237 KB


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,231
  • Apr 29, 2016 10:55am Apr 29, 2016 10:55am
Quoting IMARICH1
Would it make any difference to take(fade) the same level in the way out instead of the way in? or simple this is it ...is going up and you were wrong? ​ 1. First, I am disappointed in my standings and my last 2 trades. I should not have been in either trade. I should have waited until after the GDP # since FOMC was as expected and (ONLY a little HAWKISH if..if..if...GDP data would have complimented this view). Therefore, I should NOT have been in this trade and stuck to my guns to wait and position after the MARKET showed the DIRECTION. Just...
hi Imarich1,

I have a question for you ....

1) According to you what is the main trend going on right know in E/u.....+..... north or south with maximum targets ?

Short term : couple of days/weeks
Mid term : Couple of weeks/months
Long Term : Couple of years/minimum five years/decade
Re-Incarnated
  • #140,232
  • Apr 29, 2016 12:16pm Apr 29, 2016 12:16pm
Quoting monkey@forex
has the "sell in may and go away" already began? Indices seem to be falling over themselves rather than going for ATHs, is this just month end flows or ahs the trend truely changed?
anything can happen......I have been positioning for a May/June equity sell-off for months......I kind of hope to see another volatility dip in May, but I have set up most of what I need now. Dozed off last night listening to the Bloomberg London morning show on the radio.....they were talking about Brexit ramifications....."Is this the end of the European Union?" the host asked, as I fell asleep, visions of sugarplums dancing in my head....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,233
  • Apr 29, 2016 12:20pm Apr 29, 2016 12:20pm
Quoting sisse
US equities losing foot and they are set to loss 2100.xx for the close. Only a 'miracle' will do it today. The high of 2016 is around the corner.
mmmmaybe.....2100 bump might've been it for the Spring.....and if we fall hard in Q3, sure that might be it for the year.....but we could see a huge relief rally after the US elections....it's a long way out but that's kind of what I am sketching up for long term trades...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,234
  • Apr 29, 2016 12:38pm Apr 29, 2016 12:38pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}mmmmaybe.....2100 bump might've been it for the Spring.....and if we fall hard in Q3, sure that might be it for the year.....but we could see a huge relief rally after the US elections....it's a long way out but that's kind of what I am sketching up for long term trades...
APPL nearly to the tick lows tested ... I would rather a quick break below to scare the buy/hold and conservative money but is clear Equities already turned the page for next month. Wide chop zone expected until NFP which can be the last trigger of the spring for a rally ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,235
  • Apr 29, 2016 12:45pm Apr 29, 2016 12:45pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} but is clear Equities already turned the page for next month. Wide chop zone expected until NFP which can be the last trigger of the spring for a rally .... sisse
Hi sisse

does the above ' turned a page ' ring true for WTI aswell or we going to reach for the 48.xx target . A close above 45.90 needed right ? it seems to be struggling with sp
  • #140,236
  • Apr 29, 2016 12:53pm Apr 29, 2016 12:53pm
Quoting sisse
Wide chop zone expected until NFP which can be the last trigger of the spring for a rally .... sisse
Despite what FedHeads may have said or will say, I don't think anyone really believes they will move the ffr in June. But, then, what a chance for a surprise to blow things up? Anyway, as we have been saying for months, if ever there be a chance for "sell in May go away", May 2016 be it. Maybe we will see a steady slide for the next 7 weeks leading up to the Jun FOMC/Brexit referendum conflagration? Perfectly plausible...

But, as we have also been musing - we may see all that and then get a Jun FOMC whiff + a Brexit fail....in which case a July rally would be the bet.

The late July Republican convention has potential to be another big volatility generator.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,237
  • Apr 29, 2016 1:32pm Apr 29, 2016 1:32pm
Quoting nutts
{quote} Hi sisse does the above ' turned a page ' ring true for WTI aswell or we going to reach for the 48.xx target . A close above 45.90 needed right ? it seems to be struggling with sp
Oil could ride the highs with the fumes. However without equities rallying it will be a bumpy move ...the easy part of the move is gone and the end of the Wild and superb year for trading it is around the corner ...

Quoting The Fool
{quote}Despite what FedHeads may have said or will say, I don't think anyone really believes they will move the ffr in June. But, then, what a chance for a surprise to blow things up? Anyway, as we have been saying for months, if ever there be a chance for "sell in May go away", May 2016 be it. Maybe we
GDP flop and the latest soft numbers also weak. A weaker NFP is needed otherwise if things get in line in the Brexit front they may even sit in chop until the polls show some Brexit side or too close to call... we'll see in a few ...

On the US election, don't have it yet in my books for volatility trigger and I don't think markets will care too much until the primaries are solved ... From there we'll see if Trump goes full blown 3er world country populist style in the nationals and the polls start showing some movers and shakers ....but until then ...it just 'local' politics for the markets...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,238
  • Edited 2:05pm Apr 29, 2016 1:45pm | Edited 2:05pm
Exercises have been good for me personally speaking whether picking a side of the table or just as a 'voyeur'. My takeaway so far could be described like this perhaps: It's not enough to know where you are within levels. Equally as important to know 'when you are'. Not sure how else to put it. Probably pretty obvious stuff to you vets. But very valuable to a green like me. Good weekend all.
  • #140,239
  • Apr 29, 2016 1:51pm Apr 29, 2016 1:51pm
ty sisse for thoughts, we got the 45.90 close
  • #140,240
  • Apr 29, 2016 2:34pm Apr 29, 2016 2:34pm
For those in the yen trade, clearing final target in UJ on the test 106.5x and flat before the close...

EURO Bulls controlled the week from the first tick of the week to the last... Well done all that rode from the 1.12xx handle. Eyes on the roll @ 1.143x failure to hold will trigger imminent break up alerts in the short term ....

Here a very mediocre and light trading April ...Flat across the board for the bank holiday...

Quoting goosebone
....Equally as important to know 'when you are'. Not sure how else to put it. Probably pretty obvious stuff to you vets. But very valuable to a green like me. Good weekend all.
Most of traders (struggling ones) avoid understanding this ...thats why they focus on trading to the tick and aiming for the ultimate high or low to trade .... Thinking like this will lead you further up in the ladder in this business ... GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
14 traders viewing now