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AUD/USD

  • #96,821
  • Edited 3:12am Apr 29, 2016 3:01am | Edited 3:12am
Quoting SkyrEk
Sell on the break out of hourly trendline. In fact, just sold this pair, SL at .77, TP (potentially) .75. Risk 40pips. Potentially earning 150pips. Let's see how this goes. TGIF! Have a great weekend all! {image}
Broken. Currently +20pips. Moved stops to BE.

Gonna let this ride down

Cheers!
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  • #96,822
  • Apr 29, 2016 3:09am Apr 29, 2016 3:09am
Quoting 9jatrader
{quote} My friend, we are on the same boat. Going short is more than risky. My two long positions still open. monthly chart is too strong to be ignored
If you go further, those who have been shorting this basically shorted their way to the top from a few weeks back.
I'm not surprise that a lot of them are holding these shorts below 7500.

Same goes for GU, my guess is that that pair wants to move up all the way without major retrace and lots of shorts are stucked at 1.41, hoping for a retrace around this currrent 1.46 region. If my support/resistance levels are accurate, GU may only be half way with this up move, i certainly won't rule out a 1.50 print.

Anyway i'm still back testing my system, so time will tell how accurate these numbers are.
  • #96,823
  • Apr 29, 2016 4:06am Apr 29, 2016 4:06am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} If you go further, those who have been shorting this basically shorted their way to the top from a few weeks back. I'm not surprise that a lot of them are holding these shorts below 7500. Same goes for GU, my guess is that that pair wants to move up all the way without major retrace and lots of shorts are stucked at 1.41, hoping for a retrace around this currrent 1.46 region. If my support/resistance levels are accurate, GU may only be half way with this up move, i certainly won't rule out a 1.50 print. Anyway i'm still back testing my system,...
On GU I closed my short position when it went bullish. Perfect your strategy and then take it to live. Those who're making it have only one like us. I use month/weekly to time overall direction and then look for entry point on daily.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -13.0%
  • #96,824
  • Apr 29, 2016 4:50am Apr 29, 2016 4:50am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 40 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #96,825
  • Apr 29, 2016 4:54am Apr 29, 2016 4:54am
I'm shorting this when it reaches the 0.77 / 0.775 area. Then I'm holding shorts for the long run.
  • #96,826
  • Apr 29, 2016 5:05am Apr 29, 2016 5:05am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{image}

No offense..... but i find the trend line that shoots to the sky strange......

Btw how do you figure that the lowest point is valid to plot your line?
  • #96,827
  • Apr 29, 2016 5:20am Apr 29, 2016 5:20am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} No offense..... but i find the trend line that shoots to the sky strange...... Btw how do you figure that the lowest point is valid to plot your line?
you mean this one?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 25 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #96,828
  • Apr 29, 2016 5:27am Apr 29, 2016 5:27am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} you mean this one? {image}
Nope referring to the latest chart with plotted from bottom of recent lows......... do you plot all lines from the lowest point?
  • #96,829
  • Apr 29, 2016 5:39am Apr 29, 2016 5:39am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} No offense..... but i find the trend line that shoots to the sky strange...... Btw how do you figure that the lowest point is valid to plot your line?
In answer to your question of finding the low point, I generally look at the chart over the weekend from the monthly TF down. I don't have set rules for finding the low point, except for what fits the chart, because what fits the chart is what fits the market and I want to be WITH the market. I look for candle reactions around credible TL's. If I see candles reacting and often retesting a TL, then I plot it (See example below). You can see the Monthly TL, candle compressing on it before the break. Now we have a retest and strong bearish 4hr candles. 4hr chart TL's looking for the same candle reactions before a break etc. I look look at Support/resistance level and look for confluence with market reactions with TL's.

It's not a cut and dry answer I know, but if the answer was an easy and always consistent one, trading would be quite easy. So I take a week by week view of the market analysing all TF's to see what is going on and then trade accordingly.

Bones taught me and others through his charts over the years how to view the market this way, I am still very much learning but find it very useful.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #96,830
  • Apr 29, 2016 5:45am Apr 29, 2016 5:45am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} Nope referring to the latest chart with plotted from bottom of recent lows......... do you plot all lines from the lowest point?
ok I see what you mean, yeah it's quite a sort TL and on it's own I would not take this as a TL break, it's just not long enough.

But it is coming down off a very nice pattern retest with a nice 1hr reversal candle (highlighted in green), so I was happy to plot it as a break.

Hope this helps.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1.png Size: 30 KB
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  • #96,831
  • Apr 29, 2016 6:47am Apr 29, 2016 6:47am
Fed won't hike rates at all now for unforeseeable future, 0.5% GDP is way off their target for hikes. For now, check out Dollar Index, it has fallen from $98 to $93 and still falling which the Fed are more than happy. Market will swoop in on this taking most pairs over USD, also check Crude prices, shot above $46 now when everyone were calling it to drop to 30s..
  • #96,832
  • Apr 29, 2016 8:37am Apr 29, 2016 8:37am
Gold going up
Oil going up
Diamonds going up
EUR/USD going up

AUD/USD can't even move 10 pips up!
  • #96,833
  • Apr 29, 2016 9:02am Apr 29, 2016 9:02am
Quoting Vorex
Gold going up Oil going up Diamonds going up EUR/USD going up AUD/USD can't even move 10 pips up!
Because AUD has no strength to go upside now ... But It Will If magic Happens
  • #96,834
  • Apr 29, 2016 9:49am Apr 29, 2016 9:49am
Gold price up means AUD land gold suppliers will make more money employ more people economy will boom again , AUD land the lucky country Naturally hedged against ression at least until the Gold runs out interest rate rise anyone ???
  • #96,835
  • Apr 29, 2016 3:36pm Apr 29, 2016 3:36pm
Quoting chlyon
Gold price up means AUD land gold suppliers will make more money employ more people economy will boom again , AUD land the lucky country Naturally hedged against ression at least until the Gold runs out interest rate rise anyone ???
are you being serious or just playing around?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #96,836
  • Apr 29, 2016 3:57pm Apr 29, 2016 3:57pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} are you being serious or just playing around?
He's very serious. AUDUSD will certainly shoot up next week. Only AUDUSD was unable to respond to Gold movement. EURUSD & USDCHF strongly reacted.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -13.0%
  • #96,837
  • Apr 29, 2016 4:42pm Apr 29, 2016 4:42pm
Quoting 9jatrader
{quote} He's very serious. AUDUSD will certainly shoot up next week. Only AUDUSD was unable to respond to Gold movement. EURUSD & USDCHF strongly reacted.
I'm talking about his fundy outlook. Gold miners make more money so we get a booming economy and interest rate rise? Not a chance
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #96,838
  • Apr 29, 2016 6:30pm Apr 29, 2016 6:30pm
Quoting 9jatrader
{quote} He's very serious. AUDUSD will certainly shoot up next week. Only AUDUSD was unable to respond to Gold movement. EURUSD & USDCHF strongly reacted.
USD weakness has nothing to do with gold. Gold and silver are not moving this pair, USD does and therefore it is not the strength of the Aussie but the weakness of the greenback. The Aussie has weakened against most other currencies, look at AUD/NZD EUR/AUD GBP/AUD let alone AUD/JPY to get a better picture. Don't get fooled by money flowing into gold and silver, it's just a reaction not a cause.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #96,839
  • Apr 29, 2016 8:35pm Apr 29, 2016 8:35pm
USD is down ... AUD is down ... Amazing ... looks like the .75 break is going to be soon.. Selling May.
  • #96,840
  • Apr 29, 2016 11:54pm Apr 29, 2016 11:54pm
closed out aussie trades
Come with me if you want to live....
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