Hello traders, what about GBP/JPY? I see a minor level around 156.80. {image} Green pips! SuperP
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Hi Super
I agree that 15680 is a minor and temporary stop, 15480ish is looming as the bounce point, went through there at a rapid pace so its not super visible on the low time frames but speed at which it went through should see some buyers there next time to get mopped up.
EA Trade update Entry 14949 TP1 achieved at 14865 Simon
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Can you explain why you entered this trade? How were you able to identify the top. You entered exactly at the tip of the top and then EA shot down. I don't see any significant levels there either.
{quote} Can you explain why you entered this trade? How were you able to identify the top. You entered exactly at the tip of the top and then EA shot down. I don't see any significant levels there either.
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This is a move that I call the halfway rule and its a market pattern you see a lot when there are small candles followed by a huge move when the market revisits its "sometimes" adheres to this. Its also not often capitalised on because most traders spend their lives looking at small TF charts like 30m and 15m and below so they never really see the big picture.
1. The opportunity comes from a big move following a period of small range days (normally 2)
2. You get this big move away from the bottom/top of the little range created by the preceeding days, this will always leave something behind for the retest
3. I measure the halfway point of the big move and mark it on the chart (but only on a d1 chart)
4. Then we look for the nearest point of resistance (in this case 14951)
To trade it I normally halve my normal position size as its risky, its either going to do one of two things, blow right through or hit it and retreat. You will not see these opportunities on a small TF chart they will be invisible or look like nothing, this is why top down analysis is important.
AJ
As mentioned last evening the level at 8185 got hit today through asia the worst time for a level that needs to hold to be hit, so this i think is going to seal this levels fate and it will bust, so this is what I have for aussie.
1. I think the market will sell aussie in the lead up to next tuesday
2. if there is no change then a buy will happen after that.
See what the crystal ball skills are like.
7920 looks like a clear target in the next couple of days for this pair.
I still have the EA trade but I am becoming less confident with it. We'll see what happens
GJ
I stick with yesterday's number 15480 still looks the most logical, if it dosent turn here then the ultimate target looks like 15055 at the moment with stops at 15250 and 15155 along the way.
Simon
AJ is a good example right now of a level that in my opinion will bust it sitting right on the level, its chewing through orders there is no bounce upwards, this is the sort of PA that tells you to be a seller in this case
Don't worry once you see this action 4000 times your an expert
Hi Simon,
Currently observing AJ. im looking at the 4 hr and 1 chart (using daily/weekly as reference for major target areas), It has pulled back over the last day to the 8160 areaIn this situation would i be looking for idications of a bounce off this area back to the last recent support area, looking for a "break and close below support", targeting 7980ish area for a possible long or a continuation to the downside?.
What's your thought on this pair. Correct me if my understanding is wrong.
In H4 it is unable to break 0.700184 and it seems Sellers strength seems increased
Hi Simon, Currently observing AJ. im looking at the 4 hr and 1 chart (using daily/weekly as reference for major target areas), It has pulled back over the last day to the 8160 areaIn this situation would i be looking for idications of a bounce off this area back to the last recent support area, looking for a "break and close below support", targeting 7980ish area for a possible long or a continuation to the downside?. Many thanks James
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Hi James
With AJ lets wait and see what the RBA has to say today as this could cause a lot of volatility, also its the Federal Government Budget tonight so this will cause some movement in the Aussie.
On purely technical analysis we went down 500 pips last week so I am expecting if not this week then next to see a lot of this retraced, 8420 looks logical for me at this point you can see it on the 4h and the d1.
Hi Simon, What's your thought on this pair. Correct me if my understanding is wrong. In H4 it is unable to break 0.700184 and it seems Sellers strength seems increased {image}
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Hi Ramkirshnava
The level on the left is correct it did react ok at that point but see how when its revisited it did nothing, no real reaction its just hanging around there this is a very bad sign if you are shorting this level, to me that says bust right through.
The other dead give away and its broken that level as i write this but see how we had a hard push up to 7020 and then no bounce back or very little this in time will tell you thats a break out play.
It was a long weekend in Queensland Australia so I had a solid 3 days off, was nice to have a break from everything work for a few days.
Big news week so these weeks become an exercise in restraint rather then trading, we can learn the future direction this week for a few pairs. The yen pairs seem the most interesting to me at this point, many of them are exhausted and are showing signs that the buying of yen could be coming to an end, this might take a few days, week to play out.
To me there seems more room for AJ,EJ,GJ,UJ to go up rather than more falls, AJ is going to be a bit of basket case today with the federal government budget and the RBA today, I will sit and wait and then assess after the dust clears.
There seems to be a few hundred pips in most pairs for the yen to sell off. I will post my charts soon.
now we have the news the picture becomes a little clearer, I mentioned maybe a couple of weeks back that Aussie was buying because essentially the market was buying the rumour of a rate cut and will sell the fact if and when it comes true and today we have been proven correct.
For AJ the buying zone starts at below 7950 so we start to look closely at PA from there onwards, we had a fall of nearly 600 pips last week due to a news driven rumour and then retrace in yen however I envisage that there is only 100 or so more pips in this fall before we start to see buyers coming in.
The market has over reached here so bit more to go, then buying on the rumour of further action will begin.
I might be proven wrong but this is a familiar pattern.
Hi Simon, I have versed myself on rba data release, Ibelieve it is released the first Tuesday every month. Would it be advised to stay out of aud crosses when this data is released?. Also would it be feasible to ride the momentum on the release of data depending whether interest rates rise or fall. I believe there will be a lot of volatility in the first instance. Would it be best to let the markets calm down and see if the momentum takes us to target areas before looking for confirmation of direction to take a position. Or the bounce off a major pullback. I'm using terminology that may not be correct but hope I make sense. Cheers James!!
Hi Simon, I have versed myself on rba data release, Ibelieve it is released the first Tuesday every month. Would it be advised to stay out of aud crosses when this data is released?. Also would it be feasible to ride the momentum on the release of data depending whether interest rates rise or fall. I believe there will be a lot of volatility in the first instance. Would it be best to let the markets calm down and see if the momentum takes us to target areas before looking for confirmation of direction to take a position. Or the bounce off a major...
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News on its own is useless it can only be used in context of whats been happening and what is going to happen. Aussie is a good example for a while now the RBA has been signalling to the market it would be cutting rates if inflation got below its target range. Retail Traders think that as soon as rates are signaled to fall the currency will also fall, this is partially true, what really happens is this:
The market will buy on the rumour of the rate cut and sell on the fact if it happens, this cycle will play out over and over again while the RBA keeps signalling to the market that it is happy to keep cutting rates. There are swings in the price as it goes up and back in its range but essentially the bulls will be a bit stronger than the bears whilst this bias is in play. Its also worth considering that the other side of this coin is a Federal Reserve in the USA on a rate rising trajectory which will weaken the Aussie over time.
Would I stay out of the market whilst the RBA speaks, yes absolutely I prefer to trade after the fact so I am armed with the latest information and can reassess where I need too.
The same thing happened to the USD dollar after 2008 for years the sell off happened because the federal reserve kept saying that they maintained a monetary easing policy which means cheaper USD's so the bias was to sell rather than buy.
