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  • #481
  • Apr 26, 2016 4:46pm Apr 26, 2016 4:46pm
Quoting SuperP
Hello there! AUD/USD As I see the chart now, the level at 0.76975 served as a strong support from where the prise is heading up to 0.7822 with little pauses. {image} Although CPI data is being revealed at early dawn (for me) I dont think its gonna be an obstacle to reach that level this week. Its possible I am totally wrong Cheers! SuperP
Its possible it makes 7822 but to me there now seems like too much price activity at this level for it too hold.
On the topside I see 7880 as the logical place
On the bottomside I see 7645 and then 7600

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #482
  • Apr 27, 2016 12:05am Apr 27, 2016 12:05am
Hi Simon,

Here is my understnading in GBPNZD. Let me know your thoughts in this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #483
  • Apr 27, 2016 2:21am Apr 27, 2016 2:21am
Quoting sweetaction
{quote} Its possible it makes 7822 but to me there now seems like too much price activity at this level for it too hold. On the topside I see 7880 as the logical place On the bottomside I see 7645 and then 7600 Simon
You were right Simon!
Very disappointing CPI data. However I am still bullish on this pair in the long run. Maybe 0.75919 level will stop the fall...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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SuperP
  • #484
  • Apr 27, 2016 3:07am Apr 27, 2016 3:07am
Hi Everyone

I have had the flu for the past few days so have been feeling a bit unwell. I will start to get back to my analysis seriously tonight.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #485
  • Apr 27, 2016 3:12am Apr 27, 2016 3:12am
Quoting SuperP
{quote} You were right Simon! Very disappointing CPI data. However I am still bullish on this pair in the long run. Maybe 0.75919 level will stop the fall... {image} SuperP
Yep I agree that 7590 is tantalizingly close now, so perhaps it might get there,

It fell very hard all that buying and selling to the left of the fall basically took out all the levels prior.
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #486
  • Apr 27, 2016 4:22am Apr 27, 2016 4:22am
AUDUSD
Is taking out buy levels on its trip down, safest intraday play now is sell rallies back towards 7680
Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #487
  • Apr 27, 2016 4:23am Apr 27, 2016 4:23am
AJ
Intraday I am selling rallies towards 8550
Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #488
  • Apr 27, 2016 4:26am Apr 27, 2016 4:26am
EA
i like sell rallies from 14950 onwards
Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #489
  • Apr 27, 2016 4:28am Apr 27, 2016 4:28am
GBPNZD
Next zone sellers at 21355, may not make it buying is slowing, watch and act
Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #490
  • Apr 27, 2016 4:30am Apr 27, 2016 4:30am
GJ
Selling starting ay 16355, not sure it will make it, without a retrace first its slowing, each push carrying less force
Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #491
  • Apr 27, 2016 4:52am Apr 27, 2016 4:52am
NU
6825 inevitable, 6800 looks like te bottom for now
Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #492
  • Apr 27, 2016 5:07am Apr 27, 2016 5:07am
Pound just keeps going up
oh well we wait for some sense to apply.
Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #493
  • Apr 27, 2016 8:17am Apr 27, 2016 8:17am
Quoting sweetaction
Hi Everyone I have had the flu for the past few days so have been feeling a bit unwell. I will start to get back to my analysis seriously tonight. Simon

Take care of your health, Simon
Get well Soon
  • #494
  • Apr 27, 2016 11:36pm Apr 27, 2016 11:36pm
Good Evening/Afternoon/Morning/Night All

GBPNZD

After the fall this morning its highly likely IMO that the uptrend for now is over, there will be some pullbacks but the long term downtrend in this pair will start again.

As a side note there was some commentary this morning about the RBNZ wanting to signal to the market rate decreases in the months ahead, this leads to interesting market machinations as the sensible side of your brain says rate decrease leads to weaker currency not stronger as the market decided for the NZD. Its always wise to think unconventional when thinking forex as the market will price in the rate decreases now by buying up NZD and selling it on the announcement down the line.

I almost got my order filled around 21350 last evening, missed it by just a few pips, in hindsight it turned out to be quite a good trade. In terms of resistance I see 20850-20880 at the first stop on the train, followed by 20750, and then 20580 if we get that far. With pullbacks I see 21165 and 21210 as logical for now, above these values I start to question the validity of the fall and will reassess

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #495
  • Apr 27, 2016 11:47pm Apr 27, 2016 11:47pm
EURAUD

This pair hit its sellers last evening, in fact one pip over at 14951, so if you took it then its starting to play out now. The long term trend is choppy and rangy but the last few months have been bearish so I am inclined to stay on the side of the sellers for now. I still see scope to go to 15030, but for now we have our line in the sand at 14950.

On the macro side of this equation is a similar reserve bank argument to NZD, in that the RBA governor has signaled that they are willing to decrease interest rates if inflation gets out of its comfort level (which it did yesterday), so for now I think the market will keep pricing in this action by buying AUD and selling on the result down the line.

As always their will be pullbacks but I maintain a bearish bias for this pair and would prefer to sell every rally I can.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #496
  • Apr 28, 2016 12:17am Apr 28, 2016 12:17am
Yen
Last week I posted this link
http://news.forexlive.com/!/boj-repo...loans-20160422

It reported that the BOJ "May" be considering offering negative interest rates I stress the word "May" in this sentence, after that announcement the market sold yen hard moving it several hundred pips in a short space. The market was pricing this in like it was "fact" that this was happening right now.

The BOJ today announced no change to anything in terms of monetary policy and the yen buyers returned and just like that we start to see the yen return to where it basically was at the end of last week.

Unconventional thinking is what you need here, what you think should happen rarely does, the market believes everything it hears and reads, prices that in and then has a reality check when that turns out to be BULLSH!t some days or weeks later.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #497
  • Apr 28, 2016 12:52am Apr 28, 2016 12:52am
Quoting sweetaction
Yen Last week I posted this link http://news.forexlive.com/!/boj-repo...loans-20160422 It reported that the BOJ "May" be considering offering negative interest rates I stress the word "May" in this sentence, after that announcement the market sold yen hard moving it several hundred pips in a short space. The market was pricing this in like it was "fact" that this was happening right now. The BOJ today announced no change to anything in terms of monetary policy and the yen buyers returned and just like...
Nice one Simon. i forgot about that post i did read it and thought the reaction was based on something that had not happened yet!!
  • #498
  • Apr 28, 2016 2:16am Apr 28, 2016 2:16am
EA

Trade update
Entry 14949
TP1 achieved at 14865

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #499
  • Apr 28, 2016 2:17am Apr 28, 2016 2:17am
GBPNZD

is approaching its first real resistance at 20880, looks like an unstoppable train at the moment.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #500
  • Apr 28, 2016 2:20am Apr 28, 2016 2:20am
UJ

is also approaching the bottom at 10765, these have been used and abused so they may not hold, what might make them hold is the fact that we are down almost 3.00% so far today so it might need a breather soon.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
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