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AUD/USD

  • #96,781
  • Apr 27, 2016 1:31pm Apr 27, 2016 1:31pm
Quoting fxwinnerz
It can test .7625 before any further fall
Still within the immediate 4-hr S/R zone. Welcome to FF. Green pips to you.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #96,782
  • Apr 27, 2016 4:22pm Apr 27, 2016 4:22pm
Looks like a very nice setup on the 4h for a 0.762 buy. Could buy at 0.764 to be more safe.

The CPI print in Australia is mostly the lag of the oil price dropping (which has even reversed somewhat since then), so I doubt it's going to be relevant for the RBA.
  • #96,783
  • Apr 27, 2016 6:43pm Apr 27, 2016 6:43pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
Looks like a very nice setup on the 4h for a 0.762 buy. Could buy at 0.764 to be more safe. The CPI print in Australia is mostly the lag of the oil price dropping (which has even reversed somewhat since then), so I doubt it's going to be relevant for the RBA.
You read the abs site? It was for Dec Qtr 2015 to Mar Qtr 2016.

Fuel fell 10%... which would confirm your theory to a degree - In my experience the last two months fuel has only gone up roughly 3%. It will take a while for this to go back up and then more time for it to actually affect inflation.
  • #96,784
  • Apr 27, 2016 6:57pm Apr 27, 2016 6:57pm
Quick question for the fellow traders: If expectations that FED won't raise rates are already priced in, plus the data of US has been bad, except for one today, don't you think that whatever Yellen says today, even is she pretend to be hawkish, the probabilities for the market to assimilate a dovish reaction speech is greater than a hawkish one?
  • #96,785
  • Edited 9:30pm Apr 27, 2016 8:28pm | Edited 9:30pm
Quoting kingmarket
Quick question for the fellow traders: If expectations that FED won't raise rates are already priced in, plus the data of US has been bad, except for one today, don't you think that whatever Yellen says today, even is she pretend to be hawkish, the probabilities for the market to assimilate a dovish reaction speech is greater than a hawkish one?
moot point, meeting was over 9 hours ago, little price reaction
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #96,786
  • Apr 27, 2016 9:03pm Apr 27, 2016 9:03pm
Nothing much to see.

The bulls will probably try to bring this back to the 7670 - 7700 level. Move to 0.8 is still on.

Bears who shorted all the the way to the top probably know they got it wrong last round and covered back their positions.
  • #96,787
  • Apr 27, 2016 9:33pm Apr 27, 2016 9:33pm
Quoting 10cents
Nothing much to see. The bulls will probably try to bring this back to the 7670 - 7700 level. Move to 0.8 is still on. Bears who shorted all the the way to the top probably know they got it wrong last round and covered back their positions.

maybe goes more 100 pips down
  • #96,788
  • Apr 27, 2016 9:39pm Apr 27, 2016 9:39pm
Quoting Pricegeo
{quote} maybe goes more 100 pips down

You are welcome to short. Mind sharing what price you gonna short this at?
  • #96,789
  • Apr 28, 2016 1:49am Apr 28, 2016 1:49am
Au approaching zone to short I think
Perhaps it will range above the Blue TL today/tomorrow, but looking to see it break on the back of those long bearish 4hr candles off the monthly TL retest
Still sitting above weekly 200ema, but if the weekly TL breaks south with a closed candle on that TF, I think it's curtains
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDMonthly.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDWeekly.png Size: 31 KB
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  • #96,790
  • Apr 28, 2016 2:24am Apr 28, 2016 2:24am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Au approaching zone to short I think Perhaps it will range above the Blue TL today/tomorrow, but looking to see it break on the back of those long bearish 4hr candles off the monthly TL retest Still sitting above weekly 200ema, but if the weekly TL breaks south with a closed candle on that TF, I think it's curtains

I honestly think it looks more like curtains for the shorts expecting big dips.

We have had more volume on this sell down than the previous buy up and it didn't even touch 7500. This is pretty significant.
Support should be around 7580 - 7600...... the pair may hover to retest this support, but my bet is that level will hold.
  • #96,791
  • Apr 28, 2016 2:36am Apr 28, 2016 2:36am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} I honestly think it looks more like curtains for the shorts expecting big dips. We have had more volume on this sell down than the previous buy up and it didn't even touch 7500. This is pretty significant. Support should be around 7580 - 7600...... the pair may hover to retest this support, but my bet is that level will hold.
hi 10 cents, I would have thought the volume of the sells being higher than the volume of the buys was a more significant statistic. Why does a single daily breakout have to touch 75 support in 1 candle? Is there a rule for this?
As you can see it has also encountered a TL on its' way down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 33 KB
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  • #96,792
  • Apr 28, 2016 2:42am Apr 28, 2016 2:42am
Looking at the force of that daily and 4hr candle and pattern formation, I guess my view is we are going to range in the shaded area for a few days before we get a downside break.

will see how she goes
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH41.png Size: 39 KB
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  • #96,793
  • Apr 28, 2016 2:46am Apr 28, 2016 2:46am
alternatively, could also retest blue TL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 40 KB
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  • #96,794
  • Apr 28, 2016 2:46am Apr 28, 2016 2:46am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Au approaching zone to short I think Perhaps it will range above the Blue TL today/tomorrow, but looking to see it break on the back of those long bearish 4hr candles off the monthly TL retest Still sitting above weekly 200ema, but if the weekly TL breaks south with a closed candle on that TF, I think it's curtains {image} {image} {image} {image}

My charts show daily TL support level at this time around .7525 and monthly .7475. 100 points from daily danger zone, 150 from weekly.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 38 KB
  • #96,795
  • Apr 28, 2016 2:48am Apr 28, 2016 2:48am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Au approaching zone to short I think Perhaps it will range above the Blue TL today/tomorrow, but looking to see it break on the back of those long bearish 4hr candles off the monthly TL retest Still sitting above weekly 200ema, but if the weekly TL breaks south with a closed candle on that TF, I think it's curtains {image} {image} {image} {image}
yes, I have the same TL as posted here
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  • #96,796
  • Apr 28, 2016 2:49am Apr 28, 2016 2:49am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Looking at the force of that daily and 4hr candle and pattern formation, I guess my view is we are going to range in the shaded area for a few days before we get a downside break. will see how she goes {image} {image}
and here
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  • #96,797
  • Apr 28, 2016 2:54am Apr 28, 2016 2:54am
I Know fibs aren't everyones' cup of tea, but we have also maxed out at the 161.8 ext at the monthly TL retest and reversed hard on the daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 43 KB
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  • #96,798
  • Apr 28, 2016 3:06am Apr 28, 2016 3:06am
Quoting Blackopal
Head and shoulders on the 5 HR chart. Similar on the 4 HR of course. A slightly complicated pattern with the previous gap. {image}

I respect your chart analysis Ill-b-back. What is your opinion of possible H&S on 4HR time frame as posted on above quote. If neckline broken, possible 150 point drop indicated, which would break daily TL and hit weekly? This scenario might full fill your "curtains".
  • #96,799
  • Apr 28, 2016 3:07am Apr 28, 2016 3:07am
For swing traders any downward move may possibly to retest weekly broken resistance. Monthly bullish setup to strong to be ignored. It strongly brooke above Bollinger Middle Band. Downward move could also be to retest Middle Band. Middle Band behaves like support/resistance
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  • #96,800
  • Apr 28, 2016 3:14am Apr 28, 2016 3:14am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} I respect your chart analysis Ill-b-back. What is your opinion of possible H&S on 4HR time frame as posted on above quote. If neckline broken, possible 150 point drop indicated, which would break daily TL and hit weekly? This scenario might full fill your "curtains".
hi, you mean this?
Neckline is broken isn't it?

or you looking at something else I don't see?

my targets' below

EDIT:OOPS, attached GU daily chart by mistake, now corrected.

Got to go, wifes' home
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 46 KB
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