NZD/USD | Page 573 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

NZD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

Milking 4 pairs AUD/NZD, EUR/GBP,NZD/CAD & AUD/CAD for a living 38 replies

Gbp/nzd,gbp/usd,nzd/usd analysis 3 replies

trading gbp/nzd with nzd/usd overlay 6 replies

NZD/JPY AUD/NZD basket 3 replies

Attachments: NZD/USD
Exit Attachments

NZD/USD

  • #11,441
  • Apr 23, 2016 7:52pm Apr 23, 2016 7:52pm
on the daily chart and making a little zooming out, is interesting how the FED decision of increasing the Interest rate on December 2015 in a 0.125% changed the trend of NZD/USD that was coming from a downtrend, to uptrend. But the change wasn't immediatel because we had a period of time of uncertainty since one month early of the FED decision, to teh early days of 2016. That's the power of the expectations and speculation (What about if they don't rise it? What about if is a big rise? etc)
  • #11,442
  • Apr 24, 2016 7:47am Apr 24, 2016 7:47am
Quoting Marioa01
{quote} By no means am I an expert. My win/loss isn't where I need it to be, my timing sucks on both entries and exits. But I manage to get wins here and there. Not sure I'm drawing my fibs correctly, I look at diff high - Low waves for multiple inflection points lining up with fib levels, and make my entries and exits based on that... Most of the time... What has you targeting a 707x entry? Last we were at those levels was May 2015..
by waiting for price to hit a certain level before it gets there will better your entry levels... opening a chart and seeing a move has already started and then jumping in with a set stop of 30 because that's what you normally use for example will result in failed trades... ive been there. You need to wait for price to enter certain levels/price then look for a spot where your stops are valid... i.e not at levels under highs or at support./res levels. if you cant place a stop you think is unlikely to be hit then the trade should really be invalidated.. the more you do this the more patient you become and the more the results improve.

as for swings... it can be disputed, but I usually do from a high before a move down to a low before a retrace. so on H4 if price goes 500 down, then retraces 200, and then falls another 500 again, ill do it from the high to the initial 500 pip drop... not from top to bottom... the 200 pip retrace is a smaller swing within a swing... if that makes sense...

and the 7070 level is from daily swing, line above 50% retrace... if it doesn't get above and close above it... medium term target normally 0.60xxx/0.59xxx however now I would consider shorts from 0.703/4 for best RR
  • #11,443
  • Apr 24, 2016 10:30am Apr 24, 2016 10:30am
Quoting Don96
{quote} You need to wait for price to enter certain levels/price then look for a spot where your stops are valid... i.e not at levels under highs or at support./res levels. if you cant place a stop you think is unlikely to be hit then the trade should really be invalidated.. the more you do this the more patient you become and the more the results improve.... and the 7070 level is from daily swing, line above 50% retrace... if it doesn't get above and close above it... medium term target normally 0.60xxx/0.59xxx however now I would consider shorts...
I hear you on the patience. This is good advice I need to hear frequently. this is likely my biggest contributor to losses... lack of discipline and over trading. it's too frequent that I give up gains because I got out too early and am trying to buy or sell back into the larger move. I am also making mistakes on stop positioning. Will rethink my assumptions.

As for NU, I'll be watching closely for for the pull back. Just as I commented above, in hastiness I sold back into the small retrace from 6834 to 685x... probably too early, so I'll look for a quick exit before a s/o. I am though biased to the downside, between 692x -695x or near recent hights (with ocnfirmation of the reversal).

thx
  • #11,444
  • Apr 24, 2016 10:49am Apr 24, 2016 10:49am
Quoting Marioa01
{quote} I hear you on the patience. This is good advice I need to hear frequently. this is likely my biggest contributor to losses... lack of discipline and over trading. it's too frequent that I give up gains because I got out too early and am trying to buy or sell back into the larger move. I am also making mistakes on stop positioning. Will rethink my assumptions. As for NU, I'll be watching closely for for the pull back. Just as I commented above, in hastiness I sold back into the small retrace from 6834 to 685x... probably too early,...
it is...
and also, entering NU down move now is pointless... unless your already in and add, where would you place a stop that you can have at least reasonable confidence it won't get stopped? that goes for any move on any pair up or down... once its gone just leave it and move on, don't have to trade everyday if you don't need to and judging by your method trading everyday isn't the way for you... just wait. I went from taking 60 trades a day 5 months ago to taking 8 trades last week
  • #11,445
  • Apr 24, 2016 12:29pm Apr 24, 2016 12:29pm
Time to prepare my charts for the week. Looking at the NU you weekly chart, I saw a pin bar formed last week by a weekly/monthly S/R zone plus a southward sloping RSI. This combo portends a high probability for a southward direction for the NU this week.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #11,446
  • Apr 24, 2016 6:40pm Apr 24, 2016 6:40pm
Yeah, I'm really excited for NU this week, definitely see strong downside here. TP .6600- .6500
  • #11,447
  • Apr 24, 2016 7:06pm Apr 24, 2016 7:06pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} ))) I thought you'd never give up.
im still longer term bullish but if it breaks below last week low then it may be worthwhile to go short....not trading it at the moment as im short eurgbp and short usdcad
  • #11,448
  • Apr 24, 2016 8:04pm Apr 24, 2016 8:04pm
Typical multi-months impulse wave c decline on the Daily. Now resuming trend on the 5th.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD 25Apr16.png Size: 69 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #11,449
  • Apr 25, 2016 1:36am Apr 25, 2016 1:36am
Quoting Don96
{quote} well I closed my short out +58, target was 0.6850, 0.683xx may be a good shot at a long with a stop just below 0.682xx I'm out of NU for now so not doing too much extensive analysis on it atm Edit: number I have is 0.6836, low printed 0.6833 atm, currently +15 LL and you may have a shot at 0.67xxx could actually be in for 0.60xx - 0.595xx min atm, providing 0.707xx isn't taken out
may have been a better place to offload some shorts from 0.7+ rather than long, may play out yet still
  • #11,450
  • Apr 25, 2016 6:36am Apr 25, 2016 6:36am
Does anyone else is waiting for that head and shoulders pattern to form on the 4H chart? It is kinda going hand in hand with everyone's expectation of shorting NU.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_042516.jpg Size: 160 KB
  • #11,451
  • Apr 25, 2016 6:37am Apr 25, 2016 6:37am
Quoting KiwiBuck
Does anyone else is waiting for that head and shoulders pattern to form on the 4H chart? It is kinda going hand in hand with everyone's expectation of shorting NU. {image}
not really ))) already shorted bro
  • #11,452
  • Apr 25, 2016 6:38am Apr 25, 2016 6:38am
posted this elsewhere. notice how GU is a heavy pusher now and NU is stuck right below DP. NU upside is capped this will be sold off heavy next 24 hours.
  • #11,453
  • Apr 25, 2016 6:40am Apr 25, 2016 6:40am
my positions in NZD USD atm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 16 KB
  • #11,454
  • Apr 25, 2016 7:29am Apr 25, 2016 7:29am
Quoting KiwiBuck
Does anyone else is waiting for that head and shoulders pattern to form on the 4H chart? It is kinda going hand in hand with everyone's expectation of shorting NU. {image}
I''m watching this on 1h.Look at the EURGBP daily
  • #11,455
  • Apr 25, 2016 7:40am Apr 25, 2016 7:40am
I need 6887, that's ema50 on H1

we have NZ Trade balance and RBNZ official cash rate this week.. let's see
  • #11,456
  • Apr 26, 2016 2:53am Apr 26, 2016 2:53am
Quoting Don96
{quote} 0.683xx
technically valid for 0.716xx atm
  • #11,457
  • Apr 26, 2016 4:11am Apr 26, 2016 4:11am
some event risk that could move NU in a bit under 12 hours.
Attached Image


Currently have a sell limit set at 6940 with a stop just above the high of the left shoulder. Thinking of taking a small long position if price comes back down a bit to 687x and 683x. First, I 'll go for a run.
Attached Image
  • #11,458
  • Apr 26, 2016 4:44pm Apr 26, 2016 4:44pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} may have been a better place to offload some shorts from 0.7+ rather than long, may play out yet still
its holding on atm just about...

I'm sure I have 0.60x somewhere, I cant find it atm... got valid 0.54 and 0.71 targets
  • #11,459
  • Apr 27, 2016 3:27pm Apr 27, 2016 3:27pm
NZDUSD dropped to .6807 right after the FOMC at 1400 ET USA for a reason. That gap recovered within 30 minutes but NZDUSD plumbed to that depth for a reason. Perhaps lower momentum is in order.
  • #11,460
  • Apr 27, 2016 3:34pm Apr 27, 2016 3:34pm
Quoting idaho19
NZDUSD dropped to .6807 right after the FOMC at 1400 ET USA for a reason. That gap recovered within 30 minutes but NZDUSD plumbed to that depth for a reason. Perhaps lower momentum is in order.
Which is? If you want to see a reason, check the daily chart.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
3 traders viewing now