Q A M Trading Strategy

GU long cycle



10 entries
10 winners

Note: Closed out manually at the pivot point in confluence with the DO line

Why would I do that?
What has PA on the GU pair been doing all day and what is likely to happen now?

Masterrmind............

Should I do anything about the lower 2 poorly performing pairs?



Masterrmind............

AUDUSD [M15; 10 - manual]



6 shorts
6 winners

Masterrmind...........

AUDJPY [M15; 10 - manual]



4 shorts
4 winners

Masterrmind..........

See you all in the ATW session tomorrow!

Masterrmind.........

Great to see you here dweb.......

Masterrmind...........

Thank you for the sheet Masterrmind I will take some points and add them in my personal excel journal .
I will use now a more conservative approach by opening fewer trades and in this way lower my total DD.
And i have a question: Very often during my trading window a cycle is just opened but not closed ( only blu or red boxes are printed), what do you think about this situation? Just lower the Quantum indi?
Thank you

When this occurs the market is actually speaking!

Its trying to tell you that once a trend starts it continues in that direction WITHOUT a major pullback in price action sufficiently large enough to generate an opposite Quantum signal box.

1. Consider opening orders OPPOSITE to the Q box color
2. Reduce the Quantum indicator value so if you are using for example 100 then drop it by half to 50 and then scroll back through historical charts a few days will do (initially) and see what the red + blue Q boxes print like.

You might need to change the Q values quite a bit to fond a suitable value.

Perhaps investigate other pairs to see how Q prints out on their charts ..... test a couple of days initially and then go back several months to get a better idea.

Please upload a very clear screenshot with comments and I'll make additional comments if required.

Note: The Q values I have given here work most of the time but not all of the time and certainly not for all pairs. So they do need to be modified depending on the given chart!

Hope that helps,

Masterrmind........

Short cycle on EA



Note: ignore some of the pending orders that were closed out quickly as I was toying with the cm_script_gridstoprder script!

ps. dancing with danger hence only 0.01 lots per entry used.

Masterrmind.........

EA

12 short winners

+1.91 net gain



Any comments about trading the EA pair today?

What are the dangers?

Masterrmind...........

Return by trade chart



Look at the positive flows versus the negative flows on the chart.

Be very aware that it only takes a few very loose trades to undo all the hard work so keep focused!

Attempt to find reasons for the losing cycles of trades as they should be fairly obvious although a few are not!

For example, if you look at trades from about 60 through to 350 it shows a nice steady positive curve.

But then in only 7 or so losing trades all the 'great trading' and hard work was undone and the trading account returned to the same state it was in prior to the start of trade 60!

Having control over the risk although at 1 point it did actually exceed 10% floating DD (loss actually) the trading cycles are a great example showing that a recovery is certainly possible.

If the overall loss to the account is <10% then it is possible to make a full recovery and return to net profit but the higher the loss the harder the task becomes!

Increasingly more difficult in fact!

Moral of the story

Control the risk, look after the DD and even if you have 2-3 losing cycles of trades it is still very possible to stay in business.

Higher the floating DD the higher the chance of not being able to make a recovery.

If you allow DD to go beyond 30-50% you might get lucky once or twice but very soon you will not recover!

Hope this has been helpful!

Masterrmind............ :nerd:

THIS COMPLETES MOST OF STAGE 1 OF THE QAM TRADING STRATEGY..........

The purpose of the first part can be summarized as follows:

1. to train your eyes to read price action and other technical analysis (PA, S+R, DO line, Fibs, mini s+r, confluence zones etc) on the chart manually

2. to determine ATW trading ranges and how to apply them

3. to determine global SL and then to adjust the SL as trading progresses

4. setting appropriate TPs for all trades (adjusting TPs when time approaches the end of the ATW session

5. as the close of the ATW draws near SLs are reduced (or tightened under progressive mini swing lows or highs) and TPs are extended

6. calculating a lot size to use on a given account size

7. calculating an appropriate number of trades per cycle

8. calculating an appropriate number of cycles per trading day

9. using Excel as a trading tool to set goals

10. developing a realistic trading plan (short, medium and long term)

11. news sources (FF Forum, Bloomberg, Reuters, Ransqwark and other free and paid news feeds), keeping in tune with the market

12. monitoring trading activity via TE, myfxbook or FXblue etc etc

13. awareness of some important trading parameters (more to come on this topic over the next several months)

14. broker choice (spread considerations and other trading factors)

15. single pair, tandem pairs, multiple pairs and TF (M1, M5, M15 etc)

16. risk management (what is acceptable for the account size you trade)

17. monitoring and managing every cycle of trades

18. differences between turtle, majors, minors and volatiles (noting that some pairs fall into more than 1 class)

19. ability to see trading opportunities

20. ability to close out all trades, allow others to run or allow some to run based on time and PA on the chart

21. many other factors

I will continue to visit this thread regularly however, my main focus will be to concentrate on the QAM-Live account in my other thread

QAM Trading Journal $US1000 to ??? which is available here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=585458

Stage 2 will start on MONDAY MAY 2 in this current thread (QAM Trading Strategy)
This will take a look at how I apply a semi-auto approach to the QAM Trading Strategy in the ATW session.

The semi-auto approach simply applies an EA to the chart making entries faster and more efficient however, since the account will still be only a small US$1000 the trading approach will need to be modified somewhat from how I applied it in the Asian session when I used a much larger account.

The current demo QAM-LearnOnly-v1a used here now has run its course and its usefulness and may be terminated at the end of this month.

A new demo account will be started (life expectancy very short maybe only a few short weeks and 1 month at the most) for the semi-auto system on May 2 (just under 2 weeks from now) just to show a few good and bad cycles as was shown in Stage 1.

The semi-auto approach will then be mated to the manual approach and included in the QAM-1K Live account where no 'bad' cycles will intentionally be traded since the purpose is to multiply this account!

Now after several weeks many cycles of good, bad and ugly trades have been made on the demo accounts so I don't see any point to continue the demo account anymore (except to showcase the semi-auto method).

Once this occurs the demo accounts will be rested and trading will continue in live mode only (unless I get requests suggesting otherwise).

Personally, I prefer to trade only live!

Looking forward to it!

Masterrmind..........

Made two trades yesterday.

GBPUSD ( 5min - 40)
A high range pair, was lucky to close the trade at break even before a big DD.


EURCHF ( 5min - 40 )
This pair is usualy a slow moving pair, not today

It happens more often that i have a sell/buy signal during my trading window and the close trade signal in the next day.
Maybe my trading window doesn't suit this type of trading, i don't know. Or i just struggle to find the right opportunity.
Trying also to adjust the quantum indicator as you suggested.
Closed the cycle in a small loss, right before CHF news.
An emotionaly hard trade to be in
Thank you for your suggestions and congratulations for your trades.

There are many many things to be aware of in the market.

Here is a list of only a few:

1. Follow important news especially on central banks that about to speak (even if its later in the day).
- the PA can be rapid and unpredictable or produce very low trading ranges

2. Be careful trading the last trading day in a given month
- the PA can reverse direction purely based on short term profit taking by the big money (don't get caught up in it = maybe don't trade this time) typically an hour or so before London Close but certainly an hour or so before NY close.
Go back through historical charts for last trading day of the month and see what you notice ()

Many times the greater success rate comes from knowing when NOT to trade rather than when to trade!

EURCHF

Could you have known ahead of time that the EChf pair was likely to move alot?
Try drawing Fibs from the previous days high to low and then check your chart and see if the market was attempting to push price closer to this Fib.

You might be very surprised in what you find.

The idea is to try and sift through these likely factors so you have a better idea of forming an expectation of where price is likely to go.

Once you know where this expectation is try to just sit back and follow it and when it meets your expectation then start looking at opening trades either at market or as pending orders.

Pending orders

Always give some space between current price and the 1st pending order
Look at chart structure and draw a long rectangle that connects possible turning points with current PA.
Place the pending order at least 5-10 pips away just in case the market triggers your order only to reverse and head against you.
On a turtle pair with small trading ranges this approach may simply not be practical and therefore do not apply it.

One of the reasons I have said many many times that getting to know your favored pair is critical.
Maybe you'll still get caught out from time to time but over the long term you'll have a higher chance of success.

Trading Window

The choice of trading window is an ongoing debate.
If you are keen on a healthy discussion I'll happily provide some of my own analysis and what I see as some of the pitfalls.

Note: There will always come a day that tests you out similar to the day I got caught up in the UJ short cycle. This is why having the ability to close out some trades early to reduce some of the risk is better than leaving trades open and hoping for price to reverse . If you practise this hold till price turns strategy and your account size is NOT infinite then eventually the account will get a margin call ... it will catch you out.

Watch the floating DD, limit the number of trades especially on a 1K account (start with 0.01 lots and a maximum of 2-3 trades) although I'm not sure what size account you use. Less positions and smaller lot size means lower profit but it also means a much higher chance of staying in business.

Staying in business is far more important because over time the compounding of a small account that makes even a small gain every day will soon enough accelerate (check out the Excel I provided on compounding and you'll see that just 1% compounded daily on a 1K account will give you over 1000% growth in less than a year.

Ofcourse getting 1% consistently over 232+ trading days is quite a challenge in itself!

Good trading,

Masterrmind............

Hello Masterrmind,
Here is why i decided to enter the EUR/CHF cycle:

I was expecting the price to retrace to the DO line and to the Pivot point.
Which didn't happen because CHF lost strenght and the pair did an 161,8 leg extension.
I think it's what you meant with:
And here are some considerations about the trading window ( London close - NY close):
I made some screenshots with exemples .
Perfect scenario:

During this trading window , in order to have a possibility for this kind of scenario I need to enter as soon as possible, because the price moves only during the first hours.
Only one box is printed:



As you can see only buy/sell box is printed. That's why i decide very often to close the trade erlier.
Worst scenario:

Even if boxes are printed at the beginning we have a nice trend situation.
( I didn't take in consideration any structure analysis).
All screenshots are are gbpusd pair of last few days.
I think the issue is that when i enter a trade i have to look for and exit 1 hour before NY close because the price doesn't move ( in most cases) after that time.
And if I remain traped in a trade i have to wait the tokyo open for some movement.
This means that it's difficult to get a price retracement.
Do you see a similiar price behaviour during your trading window?
I didn't check yet the asian session, but it seems to me that the price moves a lot more even if it's in the same pip range.
Thank you,
Hope you can all understand what i'm writing


EDIT: I hope i'm not wasting your time trying to apply qam strategy on a different trading window

Great work Shuael..........

I particularly enjoy reading about your use of Fib extensions especially exhaustion levels such as 161.8.

Keep a watch on other extensions too such as 127.2, 138.2 and 261.8 among others.

Yes that is exactly what I meant by applying Fibs to your chart.... does not always have to be the previous days high and low either and it can be a little arbitrary.

The main point being that the Fib retracement and extension levels are drawn from 'obvious' swings in the price action shown on a given chart.
Then start adding in the following to make a case for confluence:

1. Fib @ a Pivot Point
2. Fib @ a Pivot Point + psych level (000's or 50's)
3. Fib @ a Pivot Point + psych level (000's or 50's) + S or R
4. Fib @ a Pivot Point + psych level (000's or 50's) + S or R + mini s or r
5. Fib @ a Pivot Point + psych level (000's or 50's) + S or R + mini s or r + longer or shorter term Fib
6. etc etc.

You are starting to become familiar with the pair and the general price action or price pattern tendencies at the start, during and the end of a given trading window which is exactly what you need to be observing.

Once you understand the trading window of your choice then you might need to modify the start and end times or NOT trade that window at all.
This might become difficult if a given trading window suits you more because of your sleeping habits or available time to trade but if its not working out favorably then perhaps stop trading that window and start working out how an alternative trading window can be used.

Revisit the older trading window from time to time (say at least a few months) just in case the trading window patterns have changed making it more favorable.

I never say that a trading window is never any good to trade.
I do say that a trading window is not good to trade at this particular period in time.

Asian session:

Very often price charges off in a direction and then retraces back close to test the DO line.
A very strong trend in only 1 direction is the major concern for building unfavorable DD

Very Important Note:
Once the small 1K account is greatly increased then what we can do is apply incremental lot progression techniques. But this only works when the account size is large relative to the lot size of the entries. If you get time go have a quick read of the Quantum London Trading thread and you'll find a normal, mild and aggressive lot progression sequence that mer071898 (the thread starter) applied. The thread can be reached via the following link:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=551382

An example sequence applied by mer071898 is as follows:

Trades 1-12 = 0.01 Lots
Trades 13-21 = 0.02 Lots
Trades 22-29 = 0.05 Lots
Trades 30-36 = 0.13 Lots
Trades 37-39 = 0.34 Lots
Trade 40 = 0.89 Lots

This lot progression sequence however, relies on continuing to open trades at every Q box signal (Q=325) on an M1 chart.
This was actually traded on the GBPUSD [M1; 325] pair and then ofcourse other traders added in different pairs etc etc.
Trading window was just before FF Open and only for the completion of 1 trading cycle then stop.

The reason for mentioning this lot progression sequence (and I will apply a very different progressive sequence in the ATW session to be outlined much later) is because it is another technique that can be applied in a strongly trending market that exhibits very shallow pullbacks.

In the London Close to NY Close there may not be such a significant or frequent pullback in price to a given level.

Have you tried to use a different price level than the DO line for the expected pullback of price?

The Asian session starts pretty much at the beginning of the day so the pullback of price is towards the Daily Open price.

What price level do you apply in the London Close through to NY Close?

The reason I'm asking is simply because I'm answering your questions now but will look at your trading window later on.

Don't worry about asking many questions (you are certainly not wasting my time) that's why I'm here and I enjoy it in any case ..........

The QAM Trading Strategy is far more complex than the original Quantum London Trading approach and this is mainly because of a very small trading account balance (for example, $1K compared to a minimum of >>$10K).

Let me know if I can help you further because sooner or later you need to be turning a consistent profit!

Masterrmind............

EXPERT ADVISORS

Several EA's have been developed in the Quantum London Trading Custom EA thread available from the following link:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=552185

To those traders interested I highly recommend that you peruse the above thread as it contains plenty of useful information.

It will not be my intention to answer multiple questions about the functionality of each EA as there are several and in any case most of these questions would have been answered in the QLT Custom EA thread so please refer to it.

I will of course assist traders who are having trouble getting the EAs started so don't worry too much.

It is up to the individual trader to test out the functionality of preferred EA's to ensure that the EA performs to their expectations.

I certainly take no credit for the EAs as it belongs to the original coders and therefore I cannot take responsibility for the EAs either or in fact that they work or do not work.

I will be using the Quantum London Trading EA 1.6.1 coded by Vlad13685 but may also use simpler versions too.

On a smaller account the EA's are not really necessary as most trades can be performed manually which might prove safer.

If you use the EA to trade when you are not physically monitoring your cycle of trades then I would frown on this activity.

What I do is allow the EA to open up trades and then I monitor and manage the cycle through to completion.

This can involve stopping the EA, changing the Q exit (QDC) value and restarting the EA again.

You will need to test out the functionality of the EA extensively to become familiar with how the EA operates it may not be free of all bugs).

I use it as a tool only with the majority of the work and the thinking being performed by myself.

There are several advantages to using an EA which you will need to discover yourselves but the main one being the speed of execution.



ps. always remember that EA's are simply tools that assist the trader usually by making some of the mundane tasks much easier but they do not make the trade decisions. The trader is solely responsible for all trades placed on his/her trading account!

Please test out as many EAs as you like preferably before May so that we can start applying them to our trading!

Masterrmind...............

Quick overview of the EURGBP pair

Chart

EURGBP [M15; 10]



Last 20 days trading ranges in the ATW session (broker dependent data)


Outliers in the data that fall below the minimum (1 SD below the mean) are not of concern here.

Hourly volatility (myfxbook)



Based on this information how likely is it that price will hit the pivot point during the ATW session today?

How would you trade this pair today?

Would you trade it?

Masterrmind.......... :nerd:

EG .......



Not surprising that the pair failed to hit the pivot!

Always try to have an expectation of typical targets for price but more importantly how likely these targets are to get hit!

Masterrmind...........

No, i used only DO and the pivot point and support/ resistence "zones".
I'm trying to find a suitable trading window now with similar range but with more pullbacks.
In the EG case you wanted the price to reach the pivot point before entering a possible short trade?
If we know that the price is near its max range can we think about opening a position? or it's better to wait for an important zone?