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NZD/USD

  • #11,401
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:01pm Apr 22, 2016 3:01pm
as I said, I'm on the sideline for this pair right now, but as long as this channel is not broken, it's imo to early to talk about a trend change.
  • #11,402
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:03pm Apr 22, 2016 3:03pm
ok I know what you mean on H4 there is slight push higher now but it's crooked, it's low as volume as it could get it's just intsitutionals checking the buying pressure if H4 will close below 50% of the previous it's pretty much a failure.

I see what you mean especially on AU since price is in the middle of the gap area, but my take is that H4 will close nowhere on low volume and next week we just push below the gap area upfront.
  • #11,403
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:05pm Apr 22, 2016 3:05pm
well that depends how you plot your trendlines on the chart. The proper TL will connect all major swing lows, and currently this TL was broken down.
The other TL is plain wrong.
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  • #11,404
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:10pm Apr 22, 2016 3:10pm
well, the next week will show us who was right.. since I'm not positioned on the mentioned pairs it's "easy for me". and btw. you should know that a TL is never a line in the sand.. it's more an area which can be pierced without an invalidation of the TL-area... anyway.. lets wait for the next week...
  • #11,405
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:12pm Apr 22, 2016 3:12pm
long/short distribution in retail positioning NZDUSD atm. What do you think institutional traders will do next?
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  • #11,406
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:12pm Apr 22, 2016 3:12pm
Quoting asgcorp
not sure about 180+ on GJ but 170 is possible. but that's not very soon. 164.60 is quarter pivot, best GJ can do is re-test QP and get rejected there next few months. {image}
when I said 180 north, I meant 180 pips north... not 180.xxx price
  • #11,407
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:15pm Apr 22, 2016 3:15pm
Quoting joinup
well, the next week will show us who was right.. since I'm not positioned on the mentioned pairs it's "easy for me". and btw. you should know that a TL is never a line in the sand.. it's more an area which can be pierced without an invalidation of the TL-area... anyway.. lets wait for the next week...
whatever works for you. Not here to argue I got my account to trade so I don't pay attention to the bias on this forum. Just saying too much talk in here about going long and the fact is we pretty much went down in a straighline from 7050 now down 200 points fresh line of buyers coming in. That's what pays the bills in 3 star Michelin restaurants I guess.
  • #11,408
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:16pm Apr 22, 2016 3:16pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} when I said 180 north, I meant 180 pips north... not 180.xxx price
ok cool bro. I think atm we are ripe for a retrace price got too far too fast now.
  • #11,409
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:20pm Apr 22, 2016 3:20pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} ​also I forgot to ask, which timeframe? as in which timeframe did you set your trade based on?
I entered on the 4hr candle pushing back towards the mid, and targeted the 3/4 fib.
  • #11,410
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:20pm Apr 22, 2016 3:20pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} ok cool bro. I think atm we are ripe for a retrace price got too far too fast now.
I posted all that was happening before it happened in GJ thread, then waited for 161.3x.. missed by 15, may or may not get back up there, we will see
  • #11,411
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:25pm Apr 22, 2016 3:25pm
Quoting Marioa01
{quote} I entered on the 4hr candle pushing back towards the mid, and targeted the 3/4 fib.
what are your levels 1 above and 1 below the 50%?
  • #11,412
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:25pm Apr 22, 2016 3:25pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} I posted all that was happening before it happened in GJ thread, then waited for 161.3x.. missed by 15, may or may not get back up there, we will see
yeah I saw that one, good deal, for me it was a no go though, I enter @ market price only never put in pending orders, also the UJ is quite interesting to note that this little break out was the real trigger on the GJ monster move, yeah GU did put some fuel in there but it's like 25% GU and 75% UJ.

It was like 4-5 am in here and obviously I didn't get in the GJ speedtrain though I was monitoring it.

GJ my take is we hit 162.20 and reverse and would be a good short for 400+ points. We shall see next week, GJ is a sucker to trade GJ you gotta have balls of steel and spot bull/bear traps which are in here most frequently.

PS: forgot the chart.
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  • #11,413
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:26pm Apr 22, 2016 3:26pm
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nice weekend
  • #11,414
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:26pm Apr 22, 2016 3:26pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} yeah I saw that one, good deal, for me it was a no go though, I enter @ market price only never put in pending orders, also the UJ is quite interesting to note that this little break out was the real trigger on the GJ monster move, yeah GU did put some fuel in there but it's like 25% GU and 75% UJ. It was like 4-5 am in here and obviously I didn't get in the GJ speedtrain though I was monitoring it. GJ my take is we hit 162.20 and reverse and would be a good short for 400+ points. We shall see next week, GJ is a sucker to trade...
I had a 14p stop - got 130 out of it I'm waiting on a short from 161.30/9x, best RR imo, dependent on other currencies for strength/candles/PA.. it usually works though
  • #11,415
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:29pm Apr 22, 2016 3:29pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} I had a 14p stop
you put in a pending order or bought at market?
  • #11,416
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:31pm Apr 22, 2016 3:31pm
silver longs are in for a lot of pain. wow.
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  • #11,417
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:34pm Apr 22, 2016 3:34pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} you put in a pending order or bought at market?
bought at market I don't use PO, I was late... and then found a nice level... tbh.. stopped out on my first one -10 by 1 pip, then tried again
  • #11,418
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:34pm Apr 22, 2016 3:34pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} what are your levels 1 above and 1 below the 50%?
6922 and 6888
  • #11,419
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:34pm Apr 22, 2016 3:34pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} I had a 14p stop - got 130 out of it I'm waiting on a short from 161.30/9x, best RR imo, dependent on other currencies for strength/candles/PA.. it usually works though
Likely we will hit the overhead supply @ 162.20 in GJ. But yeah overall looks like we still got some gas in the tank to push higher still but overextended UJ also sellers will exert pressure very very soon, GJ is in fact turning slightly bullish, but it can't just keep going 1000 points without a decent retrace. Let's see what we get definately some action will be up next week.
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  • #11,420
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:35pm Apr 22, 2016 3:35pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} bought at market I don't use PO, I was late... and then found a nice level... tbh.. stopped out on my first one -10 by 1 pip, then tried again
well done! Yeah I had similar deal on silver today )) Got short saw it pushing higher pulled out then waited for a clearer sign and got back in. Persistence and patience does work miracles.
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