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AUD/USD

  • #96,641
  • Apr 22, 2016 8:16am Apr 22, 2016 8:16am
Bulls successfully defended support for now.

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  • #96,642
  • Edited 8:27am Apr 22, 2016 8:17am | Edited 8:27am
Quoting ell3
{quote} What do you have in mind? I'm still looking for the right level to go long from. This USD strength is hard to comprehend.
i have no idea, buyers are protecting the support quite well, but if they fail we may see a long squeeze next.

the usd strenght is thanks to boj that today is selling jpy and buying usd like there is no tomorrow.

edit: with something big i mean some nice move (200pips or so), nothing extremely crazy.
  • #96,643
  • Apr 22, 2016 8:19am Apr 22, 2016 8:19am
Quoting ell3
{quote} What do you have in mind? I'm still looking for the right level to go long from. This USD strength is hard to comprehend.
I'm curious too. To me the 2 biggest items on next week's calendar are FOMC meeting & BOJ. Not saying they will be the biggest movers but they have the biggest potential, although admittedly there seems low expectation of FED doing anything this meet.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #96,644
  • Apr 22, 2016 8:44am Apr 22, 2016 8:44am
I figure out that this is the level that AU is trying to bounce from..... along the trend line with support at around 7750 (futures price is around 7735)


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  • #96,645
  • Apr 22, 2016 9:14am Apr 22, 2016 9:14am
Quoting 10cents
I figure out that this is the level that AU is trying to bounce from..... along the trend line with support at around 7750 (futures price is around 7735) {image}
Agreed also. Taken a Long from 7723 and I'm willing to ride this. Hopefully the miss on US PmI will halt the usd buying a little and keep the aud above that 200hma.
  • #96,646
  • Apr 22, 2016 9:16am Apr 22, 2016 9:16am
Quoting dab
{quote} I'm curious too. To me the 2 biggest items on next week's calendar are FOMC meeting & BOJ. Not saying they will be the biggest movers but they have the biggest potential, although admittedly there seems low expectation of FED doing anything this meet.
Which is why I feel there's room to believe the aud uptrend isn't over. I can't really see the fomc getting any less dovish than before.
  • #96,647
  • Apr 22, 2016 9:17am Apr 22, 2016 9:17am
GU is up crazy.......... looks very much like this is going to be the bulls final push to the top...... high chance of USD strength coming back across the board soon.
  • #96,648
  • Apr 22, 2016 9:17am Apr 22, 2016 9:17am
I have downtrends broken on the 1m, 15m and 1h charts. AUD strong.
  • #96,649
  • Apr 22, 2016 9:19am Apr 22, 2016 9:19am
Quoting ell3
{quote} Agreed also. Taken a Long from 7723 and I'm willing to ride this. Hopefully the miss on US PmI will halt the usd buying a little and keep the aud above that 200hma.

You got in at a much better price than i did. That's the beauty art of buying as close to or below the support

I miscalculated the support this round, the buy up yesterday to 7830 put me off track.
  • #96,650
  • Apr 22, 2016 9:37am Apr 22, 2016 9:37am
i must say this audusd is a little bit boring compared to the others.

hell, gbpusd guys are having soo much fun! usdjpy people too!

we are just here with this 30pips range all day





  • #96,651
  • Apr 22, 2016 9:50am Apr 22, 2016 9:50am
Quoting tunera
i must say this audusd is a little bit boring compared to the others. hell, gbpusd guys are having soo much fun! usdjpy people too! we are just here with this 30pips range all day
Double your stake, that'll liven it up ;-)
  • #96,652
  • Apr 22, 2016 9:56am Apr 22, 2016 9:56am
What has created bullish GBP pairs. I have closed my GBP short positions. Who can help here. I know their data is a mixed bag and Brexit hanging on the neck GBP
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: 2.0%
  • #96,653
  • Apr 22, 2016 10:01am Apr 22, 2016 10:01am
Quoting tunera
i must say this audusd is a little bit boring compared to the others. hell, gbpusd guys are having soo much fun! usdjpy people too! we are just here with this 30pips range all day
Isn't that good also? A nice defined range to scalp from tops and bottom.
  • #96,654
  • Apr 22, 2016 10:04am Apr 22, 2016 10:04am
Quoting 9jatrader
What has created bullish GBP pairs. I have closed my GBP short positions. Who can help here. I know their data is a mixed bag and Brexit hanging on the neck GBP
I think the recommendation by Obama for the UK to stay in EU is what is causing the GBP to rocket.
  • #96,655
  • Apr 22, 2016 10:17am Apr 22, 2016 10:17am
Quoting ell3
{quote} Isn't that good also? A nice defined range to scalp from tops and bottom.
ehhe, i don't believe in ranges (they all are temporarely and will break at the right time, can be any time)

however.. price going to break today low again anytime now, hopefully we'll see some long squeeze

edit:
oh i just realized you are long.. anyway seems like another bounce, you should be good
  • #96,656
  • Edited 10:36am Apr 22, 2016 10:19am | Edited 10:36am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} You got in at a much better price than i did. That's the beauty art of buying as close to or below the support I miscalculated the support this round, the buy up yesterday to 7830 put me off track.
It doesn't look so good anymore unfortunately. I got caught out by that sharp reversal...didn't think it'll do a round trip of 40pips yet again so I didn't take profit. The swings today are really bizarre. Maybe it's time to stop for the week and let the usd sort itself out

Add:
And btw since it's broken major support at 7720, the picture has just become quite unclear. Imo today's moves were really all to do with USD buying. So I half suspect that when that trend changes, a push back to 7800 is still a high possibility. But who knows whether the sellers will get too strong in the short term and push it down further.
  • #96,657
  • Apr 22, 2016 10:33am Apr 22, 2016 10:33am
Quoting ell3
{quote} It doesn't look so good anymore unfortunately. I got caught out by that sharp reversal...didn't think it'll do a round trip of 40pips yet again so I didn't take profit. The swings today are really bizarre. Maybe it's time to stop for the week and let the usd sort itself out

Either way i definitely won't short at this level.

The suppport is hard to gauge on this round....... but i believe the bears still need a 7850 print at least to short.
I don't want to be caught short selling at this current price. If this current level isn't the support, it should be very near here.
  • #96,658
  • Apr 22, 2016 10:49am Apr 22, 2016 10:49am
And Monday looks like a public holiday in Australia so there may be more ranging.

I unfortunately longed at .7723 thinking it would bounce back to .7800. Hoping it will bounce back on the news on Wednesday though.
  • #96,659
  • Apr 22, 2016 11:18am Apr 22, 2016 11:18am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} Either way i definitely won't short at this level. The suppport is hard to gauge on this round....... but i believe the bears still need a 7850 print at least to short. I don't want to be caught short selling at this current price. If this current level isn't the support, it should be very near here.
i agree too that it's still riskier to do a short (although it's easy to say now on hindsight playing the 'short the rallies' strategy today appears to have been where the money is). seems to have been way too easy...it's still sliding downwards now below 7700.

ultimately i feel 7850 isnt even the top. in fact at the moment ive lost sight of any fundamentals that suggest the AUD should fall below 70cents. meanwhile i think it was Skyrek earlier who also shared similar thoughts on why the AUD's trend is still up until things change. but for now i suppose it's prudent to watch it level by level. i'll probably wait for it to rebound past two resistance levels before confirming that support has held.
  • #96,660
  • Apr 22, 2016 11:24am Apr 22, 2016 11:24am
longs are being squeezed.


i have a possible support at around 0.7688, and the next one at 0.7466 (i guess we'll not get there today lol).

perhaps i will keep this open in the weekend, risk of bounce seems to be low now.


edit: we also have a 0.7617 static support, it can be a good place to tp if reached today.
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