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NZD/USD

  • #11,361
  • Apr 21, 2016 11:14pm Apr 21, 2016 11:14pm
Quoting loser2
The rate cut speculation vs. rate decision are two different reaction. If the market speculated that probability f rate cut is high then all these numbers are setup for good size dip. However, if the rate cut doesn't happen then it triggers short squeeze pushing this pair may above 0.71 levels. The May G7 meeting in Japan will continue to keep the fx intervention on sidelines by major currency countries. US data and Euro economics has already been priced in for range fluctuations. RBNZ was not happy with rate cut news leak and may decide to not...
No offense intended, but after crunching some numbers, the probability of the FED raising rates TWICE in 2016 is .0000000001%
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #11,362
  • Apr 22, 2016 2:57am Apr 22, 2016 2:57am
Quoting Karpa
{quote} Time to take a break imho, don't seek revenge
oh yeah I'm past that now, not bothered... I'm +65 or so on NU now
I'm going to miss all of these breakouts on yen as I'm going to be out again...
a hint for a lot of people... if you google cup and handle pattern, then look at yen pairs... you may have some good buys... GJ looks set for 180 north
  • #11,363
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:06am Apr 22, 2016 3:06am
Quoting alayinizAMK
{quote} agree this support can lead to hh imo too {image}
still short but following my old count
personal view is that this was a failure, still short but will guess support not too far away now.

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  • #11,364
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:07am Apr 22, 2016 3:07am
not sure about 180+ on GJ but 170 is possible. but that's not very soon. 164.60 is quarter pivot, best GJ can do is re-test QP and get rejected there next few months.
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  • #11,365
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:43am Apr 22, 2016 3:43am
reversal starts?
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  • #11,366
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:46am Apr 22, 2016 3:46am
How do you think the next week RBNZ .25 points rate cut will affect this pair (NZD/USD).. I am battling in my mind:. 1) The market already knows about it and have adjusted for it last week, even if the carry trade effects will be coming only after the actual cut.. <br>. 2) The market will respond with a big dip.. What are your thoughts?. . In the other hand US Data has been very weak, and it seems Yellen and the FED's representative keep bringing up negative rates in the discussions. It seems that rate hikes are not going to happen in USA for this year at least until after elections.
  • #11,367
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:46am Apr 22, 2016 3:46am
can't really call this setup atm a reversal pattern. )))
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  • #11,368
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:54am Apr 22, 2016 3:54am
hmm 3rd day not done yet right?
first long attempt 0.685xx, if fails then second around 0.681xx
  • #11,369
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:06am Apr 22, 2016 4:06am
Quoting loser2
The rate cut speculation vs. rate decision are two different reaction. If the market speculated that probability f rate cut is high then all these numbers are setup for good size dip. However, if the rate cut doesn't happen then it triggers short squeeze pushing this pair may above 0.71 levels...... RBNZ was not happy with rate cut news leak and may decide to not cut the rate at all.
It would seem the market is pricing in the rate cut...positive gdt and weak fed manufacturing index should've held the price around .7???

I think the last 50-70 point drop is mostly Euro weakness having some bearish correlation effects. So if price remains below .69 the expected cut will have muted effect (lower the price = less effect maybe even spike up) and with the daily chart price sitting right on the 20ma we could easily see > .7 or < .68 before Wednesdays news. They could still surprise the market with larger than expected cut or very unlikely no cut. Also the Fed rate statement is 3hrs earlier though there should be no surprises there. And there's plenty of news between now and then to mess with our heads....

so my advice is just enjoy the weekend
Yeoman the "Tough Luck" Trader =p
  • #11,370
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:58am Apr 22, 2016 4:58am
Quoting alayinizAMK
{quote} still short but following my old count personal view is that this was a failure, still short but will guess support not too far away now. {image}
closed looking ahead for nj support
  • #11,371
  • Apr 22, 2016 5:13am Apr 22, 2016 5:13am
Quoting alayinizAMK
{quote} closed looking ahead for nj support
let us know your nj support by chart when your chart is available to show us.
  • #11,372
  • Apr 22, 2016 5:44am Apr 22, 2016 5:44am
Quoting roger44
{quote} let us know your nj support by chart when your chart is available to show us.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...11#post8887511
long already
if sl hits then maybe next attempt 75.8x. J looks a bit weak and I do already expect nzd support but all this might be a mistake.
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  • #11,373
  • Apr 22, 2016 6:17am Apr 22, 2016 6:17am
Quoting Don96
{quote} oh yeah I'm past that now, not bothered... I'm +65 or so on NU now I'm going to miss all of these breakouts on yen as I'm going to be out again... a hint for a lot of people... if you google cup and handle pattern, then look at yen pairs... you may have some good buys... GJ looks set for 180 north
suppose no one followed... again :s... posted cup and handle over in GJ thread ​
  • #11,374
  • Apr 22, 2016 6:26am Apr 22, 2016 6:26am
looking for NU to stay range bound between rising channel. Risking 15 for a short to 3/4 fib retrace meant of recent 4hr swing high.

Then resumes another leg higher to retest 7050.
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  • #11,375
  • Apr 22, 2016 6:28am Apr 22, 2016 6:28am
Quoting Marioa01
looking for NU to stay range bound between rising channel. Risking 15 for a short to 3/4 fib retrace meant of recent 4hr swing high. Then resumes another leg higher to retest 7050. {image}
If your H4 closes back within M to 50 to M then we could have a valid 1x test... just watch out, I am currently short aswell atm, +60
  • #11,376
  • Apr 22, 2016 7:48am Apr 22, 2016 7:48am
nu limit
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  • #11,377
  • Apr 22, 2016 8:51am Apr 22, 2016 8:51am
Buys in place between 6870 and 6877. Aiming for 7150
  • #11,378
  • Apr 22, 2016 9:22am Apr 22, 2016 9:22am
Quoting alayinizAMK
nu limit {image}
she left me down here
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  • #11,379
  • Apr 22, 2016 10:01am Apr 22, 2016 10:01am
Quoting Don96
{quote} If your H4 closes back within M to 50 to M then we could have a valid 1x test... just watch out, I am currently short aswell atm, +60
Don, are you looking beyond 682x?
  • #11,380
  • Apr 22, 2016 10:23am Apr 22, 2016 10:23am
Nzdusd is still in main channel, doing the three up, three down. Up is more than down.

But today we will break the medium term up trend, so unsure of where it will go until the May cyclicals kick in.
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Ecclesiastes 1:9
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