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Jay's High Probability Setups

  • #221
  • Apr 7, 2016 2:21pm Apr 7, 2016 2:21pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} 500 pips down , a couple of 100 to go Patience pays big time {quote} It's a combination of both. In trend trading I don't really care about exact retracement points, the further it goes the more I add as long as my probability of the main target is still high, and signal is valid. While counter trend trading (which I'm not actively doing these days), I like to be as perfect as possible in calculating probabilities and exact TP/SL points
Thanks for the answer
  • #222
  • Apr 12, 2016 4:48pm Apr 12, 2016 4:48pm
Anyone else sees the resemblance between these 2 charts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Comparison.PNG Size: 45 KB
  • #223
  • Apr 12, 2016 5:05pm Apr 12, 2016 5:05pm
Back in early December, I had an extremely high probability setup on USDCAD.
Day after day, time was passing, but the USDCAD was stuck in a range & it wouldn't move up.

I eventually left the trade, and moved on to other setups, and these were my exact words:

Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Gotta admit that i'm puzzled with USDCAD's lack of movement. We're stuck in the same 200 pip range for a month now Probabilities were highly pointing to a new high ... we ended up seeing highs on AUDCAD, NZDCAD, EURCAD, GBPCAD, & CADCHF (inverse - low) all while USDCAD is still hanging in its place. Time to move on & forget that pair until a new opportunity proves itself.
Few days later, USDCAD exploded higher to the upside & made a 1,300 pip run in less than 2 months

In case you are wondering why I am reminding you of that now?
Just check the charts in the previous post above: The top chart is USDCAD & the lower one is EURUSD
  • #224
  • Apr 12, 2016 5:08pm Apr 12, 2016 5:08pm
Now if we drag the charts a little further, here's what we get:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Comparison 2.PNG Size: 56 KB
  • #225
  • Apr 12, 2016 5:15pm Apr 12, 2016 5:15pm
I have the same set-up now on EURUSD that I had in Early Dec on USDCAD
Probabilities are almost the same, and the chart pattern so far is similar.

Will we have an impressive bullish run on EURUSD that will take almost everyone by surprise?

I'd like to believe that the answer is yes, but for the moment i'm eyeing 1.1511 as a first step.
  • #226
  • Apr 12, 2016 5:17pm Apr 12, 2016 5:17pm
Quoting FX-Jay
USDCHF target below 0.9500, any up move is a shorting opportunity
USDCHF made a low @ 0.9497, so basically target is met.
I still see more lows to come
  • #227
  • Apr 12, 2016 5:23pm Apr 12, 2016 5:23pm
Quoting FX-Jay
I have the same set-up now on EURUSD that I had in Early Dec on USDCAD Probabilities are almost the same, and the chart pattern so far is similar. Will we have an impressive bullish run on EURUSD that will take almost everyone by surprise? I'd like to believe that the answer is yes, but for the moment i'm eyeing 1.1511 as a first step.
Hey J,
Great analysis as ever. If this setup were to play out for EU, then a deep dive to 1.33ish would make sense for Bulls. That isn't far away.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #228
  • Apr 12, 2016 5:44pm Apr 12, 2016 5:44pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hey J, Great analysis as ever. If this setup were to play out for EU, then a deep dive to 1.33ish would make sense for Bulls. That isn't far away.
Hey Vlad,
133x is easily achievable specially that it happens to be within the recent range EU is stuck in. It should be a nice place to add longs from if one decides on the bullish scenario.

Personally I'm gonna trade this somewhat differently this time (using buy stops & buy limits for all the area between 1.13 & 1.15 (25 pip intervals) )
  • #229
  • Apr 12, 2016 6:12pm Apr 12, 2016 6:12pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Hey Vlad, 133x is easily achievable specially that it happens to be within the recent range EU is stuck in. It should be a nice place to add longs from if one decides on the bullish scenario. Personally I'm gonna trade this somewhat differently this time (using buy stops & buy limits for all the area between 1.13 & 1.15 (25 pip intervals) )
I think I get that approach. Is that what your UC chart was showing with the order lines?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #230
  • Apr 12, 2016 8:18pm Apr 12, 2016 8:18pm
Quoting FX-Jay
Anyone else sees the resemblance between these 2 charts? {image}
ı see no smilarty.one is inside bar the other is breakout.bars cant print circular shape so they print zigzag shape.eurusd can go up and itsnt cuz this zigzag
Attached Image
  • #231
  • Edited 12:35pm Apr 15, 2016 12:17pm | Edited 12:35pm
Quoting FX-Jay
I have the same set-up now on EURUSD that I had in Early Dec on USDCAD Probabilities are almost the same, and the chart pattern so far is similar. Will we have an impressive bullish run on EURUSD that will take almost everyone by surprise? I'd like to believe that the answer is yes, but for the moment i'm eyeing 1.1511 as a first step.
Hi Jay!
I see levels at 1.20 but also at 0.905 for EURUSD, we are using an approach based on probabilities (mine probably is the opposite of yours, should be interesting to understand why both are generating incomes ).
My mood for EURUSD is more bearish I would say, new lows , but looking to probabilities, in this case I see the EURUSD bullish
  • #232
  • Apr 17, 2016 5:40pm Apr 17, 2016 5:40pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I think I get that approach. Is that what your UC chart was showing with the order lines?
The one with the order lines is the EU, I'm loading longs for an expected strong bullish move this week

If by any chance the timing happens to coexist with the old UC chart, then the up-move should start late Tuesday/early Wed & continue into the week.

Gonna be interesting to watch this unfold
  • #233
  • Apr 17, 2016 5:44pm Apr 17, 2016 5:44pm
Quoting PPigh77
{quote} Hi Jay! I see levels at 1.20 but also at 0.905 for EURUSD, we are using an approach based on probabilities (mine probably is the opposite of yours, should be interesting to understand why both are generating incomes ). My mood for EURUSD is more bearish I would say, new lows , but looking to probabilities, in this case I see the EURUSD bullish
My personal opinion is that we will see a large upside move before any significant down move (if any).
I can't project move all the way to 1.20 at the moment, but I can see 1.1511 easily achieved, followed by a quick move to 1.17xx
  • #234
  • Edited 6:28pm Apr 17, 2016 6:10pm | Edited 6:28pm
I will write down my thoughts for the week to come since I won't be able to write much mid-week.

1- I believe that we will witness high volatility this week & relatively large movements on most major pairs. It's not going to be a calm week at all.

2- We will have trend continuations, and I don't see us ending the week anywhere near the prices we are at now

3- My positions are in EURUSD (long) , USDCHF (short) , & AUDJPY (short) .. so these are the only trades in which I can say that I have my money where my mouth is. The rest is just my opinion on how the market will go based on the probability & analysis I've made:

** I expect to see a large bearish move in USD. I project this to materialize during Tuesday's London session and continue all the way into the end of the week

* The bearish USD will push EURUSD much higher (new highs above 1.1465) & USDCHF much lower (new lows below 0.9495)
* I don't see any JPY intervention, thus I think USDJPY will be dragged even lower

* Lots of people believe that USDCAD will go much higher due to the fact that the Doha agreement didn't end with any good news (i.e Oil going lower and thus driving USDCAD higher). Personally, I don't have an opinion about oil prices at the moment, but I'd like to remind you that the USD/CAD pair has both USD & CAD in it. So my advise is to be careful if you're going to go long. If I had to chose between long/short, I would be more comfortable shorting it.

* Despite my projection for the big USD drop, I find it hard for GBPUSD to go much higher because I have relatively decent probabilities that support GBP weakness. I believe it should be entertaining to see how GBPUSD prices will react this week.


It's going to be a very interesting week. Trade safe, and manage your risk carefully.

All the best,
Jay
  • #235
  • Apr 17, 2016 7:47pm Apr 17, 2016 7:47pm
Quoting FX-Jay
I will write down my thoughts for the week to come since I won't be able to write much mid-week. 1- I believe that we will witness high volatility this week & relatively large movements on most major pairs. It's not going to be a calm week at all. 2- We will have trend continuations, and I don't see us ending the week anywhere near the prices we are at now 3- My positions are in EURUSD (long) , USDCHF (short) , & AUDJPY (short) .. so these are the only trades in which I can say that I have my money where my mouth is. The rest is just my opinion...
as always, thanks jay for your insights and outlooks. regards
trade safe
  • #236
  • Apr 19, 2016 10:40am Apr 19, 2016 10:40am
Nice one Fx Jay...I hoe to see you, have FX trading school in the future.
  • #237
  • Apr 21, 2016 2:37am Apr 21, 2016 2:37am
1.1310 had to be revisited before any significant bullish move on EURUSD

Now that 1.1310 is cleared (from the downside), a big bullish leg is expected. The catalyst will most probably be the ECB conference later today.
  • #238
  • Apr 21, 2016 2:42am Apr 21, 2016 2:42am
I started shorting USDJPY, I'll keep on adding to my short position on any upward move (all the way up to 112.80 - if we'll see it)

Targeting 107.50 as a 1st step
  • #239
  • Apr 21, 2016 4:55pm Apr 21, 2016 4:55pm
Quoting FX-Jay
1.1310 had to be revisited before any significant bullish move on EURUSD Now that 1.1310 is cleared (from the downside), a big bullish leg is expected. The catalyst will most probably be the ECB conference later today.
Looks like we got a pump and dump on all usd pairs following the ecb conference. Now with the current price level does the probability still high ?
trade safe
  • #240
  • Apr 28, 2016 7:05pm Apr 28, 2016 7:05pm
Quoting zz_zhang
{quote} Looks like we got a pump and dump on all usd pairs following the ecb conference. Now with the current price level does the probability still high ?
Yep, same analysis still holds, seems just the timing was a bit off
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