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Jay's High Probability Setups

  • #201
  • Mar 10, 2016 1:56pm Mar 10, 2016 1:56pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} To sum up, I'll still be holding AUDJPY, USDJPY, and GBPCHF shorts + EURGBP longs. Targets are the same ones mentioned last week. Best, Jay
I'm just loving the EURGBP long trade, I'm more bullish then ever.
​It's hard for me to believe that the market was generous enough to allow entries at such low levels before it took off.
Probably the weekend gap (21st of Jan) had to be closed before continuing higher.

GBPCHF also covered its gap, and still seems as the healthy short for the time being. I won't be adding anymore shorts to the already existing ones on this one.

USDJPY is stuck in a range, but its just a matter of time before we break down below 111. I still believe any move to the upside is a selling opportunity even if the move up went as high as 116.

AUDJPY has been the most stubborn out of the 4. The recent AUD strength is interesting. As I've mentioned before, for me the main driver for the AUDJPY weakness will be JPY strength rather than AUD weakness. I've cautiously added to my shorts as we were going up. We may have seen the top today, but it's yet to be confirmed. I'm keeping a close eye on this pair.
  • #202
  • Mar 17, 2016 7:21am Mar 17, 2016 7:21am
I can now officially scratch out USDJPY off the list after finally reaching the sub 111 target!

When you believe in your analysis, you should stick to it and not be afraid to defend it even in public.

Here's what I shared about the trade in chronological order:

Quoting FX-Jay
Each move up on USDJPY is a shorting opportunity for sub 111 levels. Make sure to take extra care with money management on that one.
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} The low on my chart is 111.04, not sub 111 yet.. still holding on
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} I'm maintaining my bearish bias, and won't be closing my trades till we see sub-111 levels. I know that we've already witnessed a 1,000+ pip move in less than a month & the pair seems to be quite oversold at the moment, but I can still see a leg lower in the very near future. To be honest, I would prefer a move up to 115.50-116 levels before the leg lower so that I can add more to my positions. Let's see how this will play out
Quoting FX-Jay
Positions that have been mentioned here that I'll be holding over the weekend: 1- USDJPY shorts for sub 111 levels 2- AUDJPY shorts for sub 79 levels 3- EURGBP longs for a new high Bonus: Loaded new GBPCHF shorts for the 1.3750 target
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Clearly not a profitable week, and I believe there will be more DD going into next week. I'm still holding onto my positions & adding more until the signals become invalid. So far they are still as valid as the day they were mentioned. Whenever you are trend trading higher TFs you should always be ready for retraces that look huge using small TFs, but are nothing but retraces on larger TFs ... To sum up, I'll still be holding AUDJPY, USDJPY, and GBPCHF shorts + EURGBP longs. Targets are the same ones mentioned last week. Best, Jay
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} USDJPY is stuck in a range, but its just a matter of time before we break down below 111. I still believe any move to the upside is a selling opportunity even if the move up went as high as 116.
  • #203
  • Mar 27, 2016 10:26am Mar 27, 2016 10:26am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} I'm just loving the EURGBP long trade, I'm more bullish then ever. ​It's hard for me to believe that the market was generous enough to allow entries at such low levels before it took off. Probably the weekend gap (21st of Jan) had to be closed before continuing higher. GBPCHF also covered its gap, and still seems as the healthy short for the time being.
Basically both EURGBP & GBPCHF reached my previously set targets (i.e new highs & new lows respectively)

However, I am still holding onto my positions since I still see more upside on EURGBP & downside GBPCHF.
Even the newly made highs/lows will be taken out


Happy Easter
  • #204
  • Apr 1, 2016 5:30am Apr 1, 2016 5:30am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Basically both EURGBP & GBPCHF reached my previously set targets (i.e new highs & new lows respectively) However, I am still holding onto my positions since I still see more upside on EURGBP & downside GBPCHF. Even the newly made highs/lows will be taken out
Done!

I've been holding and adding EURGBP longs since the beginning of Feb from prices as low as 0.755
I may have sounded like a broken record because of the number of times I mentioned that each drop is a buying opportunity, and that the market is being weirdly generous in allowing entries at lower levels.

During the weekend I will re-access if we are going to see a continued move in the same direction.
  • #205
  • Apr 1, 2016 5:37am Apr 1, 2016 5:37am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Done! I've been holding and adding EURGBP longs since the beginning of Feb from prices as low as 0.755 I may have sounded like a broken record because of the number of times I mentioned that each drop is a buying opportunity, and that the market is being weirdly generous in allowing entries at lower levels. During the weekend I will re-access if we are going to see a continued move in the same direction.
Congrats to you. That was a great call. I have been with you all the way up but I didn't think it was going to make the latest high. Incredible analysis.
What's it all about? It's all about money.
  • #206
  • Apr 1, 2016 5:43am Apr 1, 2016 5:43am
Quoting Innate
{quote} Congrats to you. That was a great call. I have been with you all the way up but I didn't think it was going to make the latest high. Incredible analysis.
Thanks mate

Usually i try to avoid defending my positions so vigorously, because not matter how good one can get , there will be always room for mistakes, but this was just too clear, and I couldn't believe the market was giving it out on a gold plate like this, so I was willing to go all in in supporting this trade. I'll post the chart later tonight when I close my positions before the weekend.
  • #207
  • Apr 1, 2016 6:12am Apr 1, 2016 6:12am
It's been a while that I haven't gave my opinion on EURUSD

The picture wasn't clear, but now it most definitely is.

I'm not going to recommend anything at the moment given that the NFP is going to be released shortly & I expect some choppiness.
I will give my complete detailed view during the weekend.

I think my opinion will make the majority unhappy
Attached Image
  • #208
  • Apr 1, 2016 6:13am Apr 1, 2016 6:13am
Quoting FX-Jay
It's been a while that I haven't gave my opinion on EURUSD The picture wasn't clear, but now it most definitely is. I'm not going to recommend anything at the moment given that the NFP is going to be released shortly & I expect some choppiness. I will give my complete detailed view during the weekend. I think my opinion will make the majority unhappy {image}
BUY EUSD
  • #209
  • Apr 1, 2016 6:30pm Apr 1, 2016 6:30pm
Excellent analysis as always Jay, looking forward for the upcoming posts.

Thanks and keep up the good work.
  • #210
  • Apr 2, 2016 5:31am Apr 2, 2016 5:31am
GBPCHF:

I started entering shorts on the 1st of Feb. The highest price I managed to catch was 1.4750

When the price was @ 1.4116 I confirmed that 1.3955 was going to be taken out
Quoting FX-Jay
keep an eye on GBPCHF, watch it go to 1.3955. A minor bounce up is not out of the picture, but its only a bonus opportunity to add shorts. {image}
Once 1.3955 was taken out as expected, I closed all my positions.
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Surprise surprise {image}
I re-evaluated the GBPCHF probabilities & analysis, and decided that the down move is not over yet, so I started adding new fresh shorts aiming this time for 1.3750
Quoting FX-Jay
Bonus: Loaded new GBPCHF shorts for the 1.3750 target
Soon after I started shorting again, the market began moving against me.
However, the target remained valid, and the probabilities were still high. So every move up was an opportunity to sell more.
Eventually, the target was reached, but I still saw more space for it to go down to 1.3675 so i kept holding.
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Basically both EURGBP & GBPCHF reached my previously set targets (i.e new highs & new lows respectively) However, I am still holding onto my positions since I still see more upside on EURGBP & downside GBPCHF. Even the newly made highs/lows will be taken out Happy Easter
Finally, yesterday the target was hit yet again, and I closed all my positions.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF.PNG Size: 49 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF2.PNG Size: 63 KB
  • #211
  • Apr 2, 2016 5:41am Apr 2, 2016 5:41am
EURGBP:

I'm not going to go into details of the EURGBP trade like I did with the GBPCHF in the post above.
If you want, you can track my posts here from Feb, and you'll see it for yourself.

Basically I was extremely bullish since the beginning of Feb, and saw every dip as an opportunity to Buy.
Unlike the GBPCHF trade, I got a bit too greedy and didn't close all the old trades when the 1st target was hit.
I kept on holding and adding. It was annoying to see large profits disappear for a short period of time while we had a small dip .

The probabilities on this trade were extremely high (very close to 100%) to the extent that I was shocked everytime the market gave us an opportunity to buy at lower prices (and I expressed that many time here). Usually with such sure high probability trades the market shoots directly to target without allowing good re-entries.

Finally yesterday we reached 0.80, and it was time for me to close all my positions
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP.PNG Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP2.PNG Size: 65 KB
  • #212
  • Edited 5:58am Apr 2, 2016 5:48am | Edited 5:58am
Many may be wondering what happened to the AUDJPY trade.
I am still holding on to that position even though the probabilities got much lower.
The profits made on the USDJPY trade offset most of the DD suffered by the AUDJPY trade, that's why I allowed myself to keep on holding it.
In any other case I would have hedged my exposure until the probabilities got high again.
  • #213
  • Apr 2, 2016 5:58am Apr 2, 2016 5:58am
EURUSD:

It's been a long while that I haven't spoken about EURUSD.

The reason is that there was no high probability trade on that pair.

Now however, the picture is clear, and I can see EURUSD going higher!

As a first step, the recent high (1.1437) will almost definitely get taken out in the very short term.
My second target will be 1.1511.

Any drop is a bonus buying opportunity.

If you take a quick look around the FF forums, you'll realize that almost everyone is expecting the EUR to go down.
I'm more than happy to be standing against the crowd on this one, and time will tell
  • #214
  • Edited 10:56am Apr 2, 2016 10:45am | Edited 10:56am
Quoting FX-Jay
Many may be wondering what happened to the AUDJPY trade. I am still holding on to that position even though the probabilities got much lower. The profits made on the USDJPY trade offset most of the DD suffered by the AUDJPY trade, that's why I allowed myself to keep on holding it. In any other case I would have hedged my exposure until the probabilities got high again.
It is very unlikely that will go above the confluence zone around 86.5/87 before printing some weekly red candles as i see.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY.png Size: 66 KB


Jay, do you calculate an exact probability value/range for possible new highs/lows or you use your common sense for trading decisions?
  • #215
  • Apr 7, 2016 5:13am Apr 7, 2016 5:13am
Quoting Almondeyed
{quote} It is very unlikely that will go above the confluence zone around 86.5/87 before printing some weekly red candles as i see.
500 pips down , a couple of 100 to go
Patience pays big time


Quoting Almondeyed
{quote} Jay, do you calculate an exact probability value/range for possible new highs/lows or you use your common sense for trading decisions?
It's a combination of both.
In trend trading I don't really care about exact retracement points, the further it goes the more I add as long as my probability of the main target is still high, and signal is valid.
While counter trend trading (which I'm not actively doing these days), I like to be as perfect as possible in calculating probabilities and exact TP/SL points
  • #216
  • Edited 5:52am Apr 7, 2016 5:21am | Edited 5:52am
Quoting FX-Jay
the picture is clear, and I can see EURUSD going higher! As a first step, the recent high (1.1437) will almost definitely get taken out in the very short term. My second target will be 1.1511. Any drop is a bonus buying opportunity. If you take a quick look around the FF forums, you'll realize that almost everyone is expecting the EUR to go down. I'm more than happy to be standing against the crowd on this one, and time will tell
1.1437 done, 1.1511 next ..

Once we break 1.1511 I'll assess if we continue higher, but most probably that's going to be a sure thing.
I expect a nice upward move that will take us to 1.17 quite fast, but let's keep that discussion till we clear 1.1511

Again, standing against the crowd
Attached Image
  • #217
  • Apr 7, 2016 5:36am Apr 7, 2016 5:36am
USDCHF target below 0.9500, any up move is a shorting opportunity
  • #218
  • Apr 7, 2016 5:38am Apr 7, 2016 5:38am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} 1.1437 done, 1.511 next .. Once we break 1.511 I'll assess if we continue higher, but most probably that's going to be a sure thing. I expect a nice upward move that will take us to 1.17 quite fast, but let's keep that discussion till we clear 1.511 Again, standing against the crowd {image}
1.511 or 1.115?
  • #219
  • Apr 7, 2016 5:40am Apr 7, 2016 5:40am
Quoting keziahpie
{quote} 1.511 or 1.115?
Is it 1.15xx
When the going gets tough , the tough get going
  • #220
  • Apr 7, 2016 5:53am Apr 7, 2016 5:53am
Quoting keziahpie
{quote} 1.511 or 1.115?
Quoting Stubborn
{quote} Is it 1.15xx
Sorry my bad, just a typo .. now fixed
1.1511
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