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The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,021
  • Apr 21, 2016 8:26am Apr 21, 2016 8:26am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, I answered your questions yesterday and think its a page behind on this thread. I WON AGAIN. But, I have lost more in not knowing exactly why I WON. I took the LONG from
We'll have a longer chat later ... now is not the right time for this ...

Quoting Pharm0r
Well played bulls I'm hung on Draghi's comments that inflation can turn negative soon
indeed ...he has mentioned patience and patience patience so many times ...we already have a very decent time with negative rates and QE ...smell fishy very fish. We need to digest the technicalities this time, he is also and strangely stuttering on the Brexit question.

A major mover and shake is cooking, The current status quo in the Euro since last year is about to end. In my initial yearly outlook was mid spring and I think we are about to confirm this if inflation ticks down before Brexit...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,022
  • Apr 21, 2016 8:32am Apr 21, 2016 8:32am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, I answered your questions yesterday and think its a page behind on this thread. I WON AGAIN. But, I have lost more in not knowing exactly why I WON.
that was a good one

At least you're a fool with money

better than a fool without

(I mean all of this in a joking way of course)
  • #140,023
  • Apr 21, 2016 10:05am Apr 21, 2016 10:05am
The clean sweep just ruined my day .... Draghi just exactly don't know what to deliver ... BS ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #140,024
  • Apr 21, 2016 10:56am Apr 21, 2016 10:56am
Pharm0r,

Well said! I just know I made choices to trade it down and then up based on my knowledge. However, even though the situation panned out for me, it doesn't mean my knowledge was right and knowing this is more valuable to me.

This is why .1390 held IMO as it was a Battle ground for Bulls and Bears and last MONTHS close area. WEEKLY chart doesn't show the DAYS of the Wars at this level.
Attached Image
  • #140,025
  • Apr 21, 2016 1:26pm Apr 21, 2016 1:26pm
Quoting IMARICH1
... I have lost more in not knowing exactly why I WON. I
As long as you refuse to think outside of the box and see trading from a different angle... You still want a recipe book and I am trying to give you hints that IMO will give you a lot better results in the long run. Believe me in this one... there is plenty of info in this second iteration to write 10 pages but lets try to wrap up some key points before moving to the next iteration.

First lets start answering your first question but I think there are a lot more interesting questions to talk:

-> I have lost more in not knowing exactly why I WON

Here is the Standing Table update. The w% and the r:r concepts will be the ones that become the key for everything else after a few iterations. For now lets just focus on the basics.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2016-04-21 at 19.32.54.png Size: 195 KB


You are in perfect synch with the market 2 out 2. i didn't give you TA neither FA neither bias neither nothing. The only thing i did it intentionally is LIMITING your RANGE of ACTION so you get in synch with a better more natural volatility in the EURO for a shorter term range.

What we have achieved with this:

1. You are scoping your swings in a more proper way (will get in more practical details about volatility later). So no more holding blindly 500 ticks against you for a move, etc.
2. It handcuff and forced you so you STOP shooting at everything that moves. It's a sobering exercise to STOP overtrading....

Before we move to the next post. A few questions:

-> Why do you think I use 'elapsed time' in the updates?
-> Do you notice something in common between both times in the iterations?
-> Would timing help you to gauge volatility and expectations?
-> Did you notice something in common between the main mover and shaker news of the week with the timing of targets being hit (and not being hit)?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,026
  • Apr 21, 2016 1:41pm Apr 21, 2016 1:41pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} As long as you refuse to think outside of the box and see trading from a different angle... You still want a recipe book and I am trying to give you hints that IMO will give you a lot better results in the long run. Believe me in this one... there is plenty of info in this second iteration to write 10 pages but lets try to wrap up some key points before moving to the next iteration. First lets start answering your first question but I think there are a lot more interesting questions to talk: -> I have lost more in not knowing exactly why...
ops looks like I need to work harder and do all the exams to come in order to save the semester !
we probably lost 1.139x for the rest of the month ...waiting for the daily roll .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #140,027
  • Apr 21, 2016 1:48pm Apr 21, 2016 1:48pm
Before we move to the next post. A few questions:

-> Why do you think I use 'elapsed time' in the updates?
-> Do you notice something in common between both times in the iterations?
-> Would timing help you to gauge volatility and expectations?
-> Did you notice something in common between the main mover and shaker news of the week with the timing of targets being hit (and not being hit)?

sisse

ANSWERS:
-> Why do you think I use 'elapsed time' in the updates?
1. Because it allowed me to see how Long a Trade took to complete a Direction. The First call took about 5 Days and the 2nd Call 5 Days as well. This allows one to gauge a more realistic Time to allow a trade to reach a target. Or, that it wont reach its target. Helps stop OVERTRADING as well.....I loved the phrase of getting me to stop shooting at everything that moves....that is funny and was my trading habit!

-> Do you notice something in common between both times in the iterations?
2. Yes, 5 days duration

-> Would timing help you to gauge volatility and expectations?
3. Yes, Timing helps one gauge volatility. We have been stuck in a range between .145X and .123X since the exercise. However, Targets are more realistic of EU moves or most of the move of 100 pips. News is the only thing that is been fueling it to go in a direction to the targets. And, what I notice is that BOTH BULLS AND BEARS in this exercise could have profited as trades went in both directions but not totally to the targets of each during a few of the days of this exercise; but, within 75% at least until reaching a certain target!

B. Pertaining to expectations, this is where I am really lacking. My expectations have been that the DOLLAR is stronger than EU or GU. EU is not being used as carry-trade much now, Risk of OIL issue is normal now and not playing into EU and GOLD rising, EU looking for more rate cuts or QE and US at least raised once already with 1 or 2 to come. My expectations are for DOLLAR strength and EU and GU weaker; but yet, EU has stayed stronger against DOLLAR.

What smells fishy to me is where is the Bull capitulation? Is it still coming? And, why? I believe market should be aligned for Stronger Dollar.

-> Did you notice something in common between the main mover and shaker news of the week with the timing of targets being hit (and not being hit)?

4. Yes, the NEWS drove the PA to the targets which was why positioning and TIMING is Key to it.
  • #140,028
  • Apr 21, 2016 2:03pm Apr 21, 2016 2:03pm
Quoting IMARICH1
.... Yes, the NEWS drove the PA to the targets which was why positioning and TIMING is Key to it.
Good.

i have used this video a few times already in the last few years. A bit cheesy but the 'muppets' version was spot on back in the time and in a nutshell is what we are trying to do here with this conversation. It was originally posted by Gator a few years ago but as relevant as ever.....

Inserted Video



...

Every gambler knows

That the secret to survivin'

Is knowin' what to throw away

And knowin' what to keep

'Cause every hand's a winner

And every hand's a loser

...

You've got to know when to hold 'em

Know when to fold 'em

Know when to walk away

And know when to run

You never count your money

When you're sittin' at the table

There'll be time enough for counting

When the dealings done....


Now while you listen to the lyrics lets move to something more practical. 2 Questions/tasks: You said we are NEUTRAL

 

  1. Now after the fact and ECB news. What would have been your trade if you could go back in time?
  2. Can you quickly take a screenshot of the neutral range you are referring? No lines or indicator just a zoom in clean chart with what is for you the current range?

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,029
  • Apr 21, 2016 2:30pm Apr 21, 2016 2:30pm
Table open for the next round for IMARICH1, all the others who called it before and for new entrants....

--> Question 3: What level will be tested first? This iteration have a variation on the R:R

--> Currently Euro is trading 1.129x:

--> Choose your poison ASAP and any other lurkers that want to play/learn with this test feel free to jump in..no middle points no nothing. Winner takes all.

In simple words for the sake of the example the option in trading terms are :

-> LMT BUY 1.129x -> TP => 1.139x | STP => 1.124x | r:r -=> 2:1


-> LMT SELL 1.129x -> TP => 1.119x | STP => 1.134x | r:r -=> 2:1


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,030
  • Apr 21, 2016 2:33pm Apr 21, 2016 2:33pm
If this is an open question.

  1. Now after the fact and ECB news. What would have been your trade if you could go back in time? Be patient, wait for the major news/event, place limit buy or limit sells at targets.

  • #140,031
  • Apr 21, 2016 2:33pm Apr 21, 2016 2:33pm
Now while you listen to the lyrics lets move to something more practical. 2 Questions/tasks: You said we are NEUTRAL

 

  1. Now after the fact and ECB news. What would have been your trade if you could go back in time?
  2. Can you quickly take a screenshot of the neutral range you are referring? No lines or indicator just a zoom in clean chart with what is for you the current range?

sisse

 

  1. Now after the fact and ECB news. What would have been your trade if you could go back in time?

EDIT: When I say NEUTRAL, I mean OUTLOOK is NEUTRAL. Trade from EXTREMES to TARGET but not CENTER.

ANSWER: Iteration 2: I would be SHORT STILL from .1390 at .1290 level we reached and were given the choice to go LONG (.1390) or SHORT (.1190). And, now I would targeting .1190....

2. Can you quickly take a screenshot of the neutral range you are referring? No lines or indicator just a zoom in clean chart with what is for you the current range? I am using my DAILY chart to Look at the RANGE for the WEEK which shows .139X to .123X

Attached Image
  • #140,032
  • Apr 21, 2016 2:35pm Apr 21, 2016 2:35pm
-> LMT SELL 1.129x -> TP => 1.119x | STP => 1.134x | r:r -=> 2:1
  • #140,033
  • Apr 21, 2016 2:36pm Apr 21, 2016 2:36pm
Quoting PAStalker
If this is an open question. Now after the fact and ECB news. What would have been your trade if you could go back in time? Be patient, wait for the major news/event, place limit buy or limit sells at targets.
Yes. Jump in thats the point of this discussion

Quoting IMARICH1
Now while you listen to the lyrics lets move to something more practical. 2 Questions/tasks: You said we are NEUTRAL Now after the fact and ECB news. What would have been your trade if you could go back in time? Can you quickly take a screenshot of the neutral range you are referring? No lines or indicator just a zoom in clean chart with what is for you the current range? sisse Now after the fact and ECB news. What would have been your trade if you could go back in time? ANSWER: Iteration 2: I would be SHORT STILL from .1390 at .1290 level we reached...
Got it.

IMARICH1 IN short.

I will give you my opinion and chart once we close the bids....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,034
  • Apr 21, 2016 2:51pm Apr 21, 2016 2:51pm
Limit sell 1.129x
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #140,035
  • Apr 21, 2016 2:52pm Apr 21, 2016 2:52pm
short 1.1373 here with tp 1.1120, so add me back to the shorts
  • #140,036
  • Apr 21, 2016 2:52pm Apr 21, 2016 2:52pm
-> LMT BUY 1.129x -> TP => 1.139x | STP => 1.124x | r:r -=> 2:1

i go with this
  • #140,037
  • Edited 3:13pm Apr 21, 2016 2:53pm | Edited 3:13pm
Shy board today ....need some more takers. Anybody long ?

-> room, Pharm0r, glassblower IN short
-> Pixie666 & PAStalker IN long
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,038
  • Apr 21, 2016 3:01pm Apr 21, 2016 3:01pm
-> LMT BUY 1.129x -> TP => 1.139x | STP => 1.124x | r:r -=> 2:1

But if this iteration ends next Thursday and FOMC statement the day before, would the stop be vulnerable to volatility at the time of the statement?
  • #140,039
  • Apr 21, 2016 3:10pm Apr 21, 2016 3:10pm
I will pick sell please
  • #140,040
  • Apr 21, 2016 3:12pm Apr 21, 2016 3:12pm
Quoting sisse
Shy board today ....need some more takers. Anybody long ? -> hoom and Pharm0r IN short -> Pixie666 & PAStalker IN long
I will take this for the exercise Sisse, as always very good insight and work here

-> LMT BUY 1.129x -> TP => 1.139x | STP => 1.124x | r:r -=> 2:1
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