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The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,981
  • Apr 18, 2016 4:27pm Apr 18, 2016 4:27pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...what does it mean there is "mid term overriding the current leg" .... 2087/9x it is mid term, 2080.xx was short term for the FED/ECB leg ... ...​is it possible my chart of SP500... as Hoom mentioned S&P vs ES. I use here S&P for reference as most can follow the index in spot. For trading ES and the difference get's narrower before expiration obviously. For charting you can use the index, S&P in CFD (most Forex brokers) or ES front contract for intraday and ES1! (or whatever is the ticker for the continuation feed for ES in...

omg, i understood it the other way around so it explains why I completely misunderstood the meaning of "overriding" and of the post generally. thank you
  • #139,982
  • Apr 18, 2016 4:29pm Apr 18, 2016 4:29pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} omg, i understood it the other way around so it explains why I completely misunderstood the meaning of "overriding" and of the post generally. thank you
That is why (and obviously the oil news) i flattened all in equities on Friday....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,983
  • Apr 18, 2016 4:32pm Apr 18, 2016 4:32pm
{quote} I hear you ...we just closed the news gap. Choose your poison time in OIL ...I already chose mine ... sisse[/quote]

Hi sisse

Can I ask , was it just a news gap , as you mentioned a quick leg to 35.xx earlier as I know you had a 44.xx handle for spring


thanks

Tristan
  • #139,984
  • Apr 18, 2016 4:41pm Apr 18, 2016 4:41pm
Quoting nutts
{quote} I hear you ...we just closed the news gap. Choose your poison time in OIL ...I already chose mine ... sisse
Quote
Hi sisse Can I ask , was it just a news gap , as you mentioned a quick leg to 35.xx earlier

Yes. In my books, we have SET the high of this month today changing short term outlook in OIL from Buy to Sell directly after the news.

It was a super sharp opening with nobody on board in between $40 and $37. If you bet on a runaway gap it failed miserable today because market was heavy long. 40.3x is the break and the flip is inches away only @ $39.8x for a test $34.7x. If today move is what I think its is (pump to clear large longs caught on the wrong side) we should see a rather quick runner by inventories.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,985
  • Apr 18, 2016 4:51pm Apr 18, 2016 4:51pm
{quote} Yes. In my books, we have SET the high of this month today changing short term outlook in OIL from Buy to Sell directly after the news. It was a super sharp opening with nobody on board in between $40 and $37. If you bet on a runaway gap it failed miserable today because market was heavy long. 40.3x is the break and the flip is inches away only @ $39.8x for a test $34.7x. If today move is what I think its is (pump to clear large longs caught on the wrong side) we should see a rather quick runner by inventories. sisse[/quote]

Hi sisse

many thanks for the insight.
  • #139,986
  • Apr 19, 2016 6:22am Apr 19, 2016 6:22am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Europeanequities struggling after the opening range [wrong]. DAX losing 10000 will unlock some levels for a quick test down via the flop in DOHA. OIL for a quick test $35.xx naked now...

sisse
Raging bulls in european equities after very positive sentiment print in the morning. No discussion here, markets running in manic mode on a rush for the spring with OIL sitting at key $41.3x. Eyes on the open with US equities inches away from unlocking imminent break alerts for a chance to ATH.

On the currency board, very decent moves in Sterling and Yen pairs via DOLLAR losing foot one more time (94.4x for ref) while Euro in a rather dull sessions hanging around 1.132x since yesterday....

World equities on manic mode and they will rule the board until further data...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,987
  • Apr 19, 2016 7:40am Apr 19, 2016 7:40am
Soft stops taken in the Euro (1.134x) before the open and now we can finally move in peace.... Europe in the driver seat of the last leg in equities so eyes in NY to see if they play ball or we just kill the day rather early ...

GL all manning positions...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,988
  • Apr 19, 2016 8:46am Apr 19, 2016 8:46am
Quoting sisse
World equities on manic mode and they will rule the board until further data... sisse
April FOMC surprise (?) hike could open wide the door to "sell in May"....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,989
  • Apr 19, 2016 9:13am Apr 19, 2016 9:13am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}April FOMC surprise (?) hike could open wide the door to "sell in May"....
I don't think so as for today. FED will probably hold the trigger for after the Brexit jitters. The 'carrots and sticks' (stick this time) for the bastards will prolly come from the ECB to keep markets on check until the summer ...

What its 100% sure in my books is this isn't the place (2100.xx) to buy at this time beyond specific simples at the very short short term...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,990
  • Edited 11:03am Apr 19, 2016 10:44am | Edited 11:03am
1.1384 the high of the day.....so far us shorters are still in the game.

Would be pretty funny if it reversed to 1.1190 - dont be a dick for a tick is in effect!!
  • #139,991
  • Apr 19, 2016 11:06am Apr 19, 2016 11:06am
Well, I would have cleared my trade at the LONDON close. For me, I reached my target! I was within a few pips of .1390 so .1385 at London close was where I would have closed my trade.

Now, the question is would I SELL from .1390. If we closed NY as well under .1390, I would say yes as OUTCOME is NEUTRAL; therefore, SELL at the extremes to Target and NOT to Center......

This may be wrong but I want to expose my thoughts in these exercises so I really get good use out of them to see if I am over-trading, cutting winning positions to quick or holding them too long or not cutting losing ones as well ect......And, I am still trying to learn market expectations!

I would now be NEUTRAL looking for a position...of course, for our exercise I am still in it until sisse makes the final call!

I sure hope May SELLING comes sooner than later in GU and EU! I am still trapped for those of you who know the bad seats I bought!
  • #139,992
  • Apr 19, 2016 11:18am Apr 19, 2016 11:18am
Quoting IMARICH1
Well, I would have cleared my trade at the LONDON close. For me, I reached my target! I was within a few pips of .1390 so .1385 at London close was where I would have closed my trade. Now, the question is would I SELL from .1390. If we closed NY as well under .1390, I would say yes as OUTCOME is NEUTRAL; therefore, SELL at the extremes to Target and NOT to Center...... This may be wrong but I want to expose my thoughts in these exercises so I really get good use out of them to see if I am over-trading, cutting winning positions to quick or holding...
If ur bad seats are still on my recommendation is to better see to it once again ... What is see is a very bad drama going to happen by d CB's ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,993
  • Apr 19, 2016 4:35pm Apr 19, 2016 4:35pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ++++ Quick Call 2 [update 4]++++ Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing Current Euro price @ 1.131x (elapsed time 2 day 12 hours)...

++++ Quick Call 2 [update 3]++++

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.136x (elapsed time 3 day 12 hours)


-> LMT BUY to 1.139x

eborn

build11

primejarvis

Pixie666

glassblower

IMARICH1

------------------------------------ ---------

Quoting TheSwede

-> LMT BUY to 1.139x (Neutral)

------------------------------------ ---------

-> LMT SELL to 1.119x

Pharm0r

mclon

shackleton

monkey@forex

Rockerzeus



Euro back to break out after strong european rally on good news but if failed by a handful of ticks to clear 1.139x for a winner in the contest (at least for today)..for the guys in the exercise no winners so far all still open...

A quick note and hint here.

Quoting IMARICH1
Well, I would have cleared my trade at the LONDON close. For me, I reached my target! I was within a few pips of .1390 so .1385 at London close ...
Indeed don't be a dick for a tick rules applied if you were long as you very well pointed out, however for the purpose of the exercise it was not over yet (je je je)... first because i wont bend the rules and seriously let me tell you why in a few but first here are my questions and give you some hints later:

1. Why do you think 1.139x held? ...what do you think are the odds that we have set the high of the week and the handle will hold the week? Zero? 50/50 or 100%?
2. If you would have been selling instead of buying, would you have closed already shorts or would you have wait until it stop you out?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,994
  • Apr 19, 2016 4:56pm Apr 19, 2016 4:56pm
i dont know why 1.139 held, but there are stops to be taken at 1.14 handle, beyond that we are looking at stops at high of 2016, which may require Draghi to push euro in that direction. However it could be that btwn 1.14 and 1.1450 orders are being loaded up for heavy selling.
  • #139,995
  • Apr 19, 2016 5:06pm Apr 19, 2016 5:06pm
Quoting sisse
I don't think so as for today. FED will probably hold the trigger for after the Brexit jitters.
Idk, if they keep saying they will do some hikes in 2016 (1st it was 4, then 2) well they gotta do em sometime. If June is out cuz it's pre-Brexit and if they want to do a hike on a FOMC date with a scheduled press conference, that leaves Sept and Dec. Well omg not Sept, right on the eve of the US elections? What could happen? The Yellen Fed is such a slave to the markets - I'd like to see them do something surprising for once: maybe they will read this, be ashamed, and hike next week?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,996
  • Apr 19, 2016 6:21pm Apr 19, 2016 6:21pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ++++ Quick Call 2 [update 3]++++ Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing Current Euro price @ 1.136x (elapsed time 3 day 12 hours) -> LMT BUY to 1.139x eborn build11 primejarvis Pixie666 glassblower...
Please can i answer this question...i am not sure why it held other than ta reasons and not enough fa reasons to break the range...i would say i am comfortable enough with 75% sure we have set the week highs however ecb could prove me wrong...in the meantime i have a better rr for shorts...if i was in a short i would have put stops at be now and would hold tight...please tell me what i have right or wrong as i am learning so much from u guys here....thanks go out to sisse, chester, fool, jarvis, and imarich1 for your very insightful conersation
  • #139,997
  • Apr 19, 2016 8:20pm Apr 19, 2016 8:20pm
[quote=IMARICH1;8881742]Well, I would have cleared my trade at the LONDON close. For me, I reached my target! I was within a few pips of .1390 so .1385 at London close was where I would have closed my trade. Now, the question is would I SELL from .1390. If we closed NY as well under .1390, I would say yes as OUTCOME is NEUTRAL; therefore, SELL at the extremes to Target and NOT to Center...... This may be wrong but I want to expose my thoughts in these exercises so I really get good use out of them to see if I am over-trading, cutting winning positions to quick or holding them too long or not

Dear IMARICHI,
I have been reading your exchanges with Sissie for some time now, and have been learning a lot. Just looking at some trades you took previously, it seems you kind of jumped on the trade again. Why would you sell now when the price is in upward momentum, if it breaks 1390 then we may have a retest of 1465. MAY BE..... Chances are there and market is never wrong.
my observation is that you take the market movement in a very mechanical way and it just doesn't happen that way. My 2 cents and humble opinion. Rest is your design and your trade😄
  • #139,998
  • Apr 19, 2016 8:29pm Apr 19, 2016 8:29pm
[quote=NMZee;8882349][quote=IMARICH1;8881742]Well, I would have cleared my trade at the LONDON close. For me, I reached my target! I was within a few pips of .1390 so .1385 at London close was where I would have closed my trade. Now, the question is would I SELL from .1390. If we closed NY as well under .1390, I would say yes as OUTCOME is NEUTRAL; therefore, SELL at the extremes to Target and NOT to Center...... This may be wrong but I want to expose my thoughts in these exercises so I really get good use out of them to see if I am over-trading, cutting winning positions to quick or holding them too long or not Dear IMARICHI, I have been reading your exchanges with Sissie for some time now, and have been learning a lot. Just looking at some trades you took previously,
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  • #139,999
  • Apr 19, 2016 9:12pm Apr 19, 2016 9:12pm
[quote=sisse;8882187]{quote} ++++ Quick Call 2 [update 3]++++ Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing Current Euro price @ 1.136x (elapsed time 3 day 12 hours) -> LMT BUY to 1.139x eborn build11 primejarvis Pixie666 glassblower IMARICH1 ------------------------------------ --------- Quoting TheSwede -> LMT BUY to 1.139x (Neutral) ------------------------------------ --------- -> LMT SELL to 1.119x Pharm0r mclon shackleton monkey@forex Rockerzeus Euro back to break out after strong european rally on good news but if failed by a handful of ticks to clear 1.139x for a winner in the contest (at least for today)..for the guys in the exercise no winners so far all still open... A quick note and hint here. {quote} Indeed don't be a dick for a tick rules applied if you were long as you very well pointed out, however for the purpose of the exercise it was not over yet (je je je)... first because i wont bend the rules and seriously let me tell you why in a few but first here are my questions and give you some hints later: 1. Why do you think 1.139x ]

My answer would be, it held 1390 because this was the place price broke out from last time. Rain maker for last leg. No. We have not seen the high as yet only 20/25% chance of this being the weekly high and i would have closed my short at 1350.
  • #140,000
  • Edited 11:51am Apr 20, 2016 7:52am | Edited 11:51am
1. Why do you think 1.139x held? ...what do you think are the odds that we have set the high of the week and the handle will hold the week?Zero? 50/50 or 100%?
2. If you would have been selling instead of buying, would you have closed already shorts or would you have wait until it stop you out?

sisse

1. I am not sure as I see .1344 showing more S or later as R. However, when I look at the Monthly chart, The Monthly candle for the Quarter and Month closed at .138X. Therefore, this is where I would think the battle is for this Month to be BULLISH or BEARISH. Best guess. I think ODDS are in favor of it holding for the week.

2. Answer: Waited until it stopped me Out. However, the EU is in OUTLOOK Neutral. Therefore, this is why I originally SOLD the .1390 and took profit at .1290. This approach reduced RISK and gave me some Capital. However, I believe you indicated I should have held my position. But, just as this exercise has proven, I end up giving up gains to get more. I think at least taking half off would have ATLEAST been the best decision.

Those are my answers.......PA in EU has gone to .1387 and I would have def taken profit on this Move back to .1390 even though it has still not not .1390. Perhaps, .1390 holds more weight than I understand......

Thanks for the input sisse!

Thanks NMzee. Wishing you the best in trading and hoping we all can learn from sisse as I am grateful my experiences can help others on the same path as me.
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