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NZD/USD

  • #11,321
  • Apr 19, 2016 5:00am Apr 19, 2016 5:00am
Quoting myskip99
{quote} i am agree.....aud and nzd full manipulative... you cant win.
Markets will stay irrational for as long as you're solvent.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #11,322
  • Apr 19, 2016 5:04am Apr 19, 2016 5:04am
Quoting stulic
{quote} Markets will stay irrational for as long as you're solvent.
i am test... sell full margin big big sell...or big big buy...price nzdusd always turn...wkwkwk
  • #11,323
  • Apr 19, 2016 6:48am Apr 19, 2016 6:48am
IMHO, the NZDUSD should witness a pullback from 0.7050-55
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  • #11,324
  • Apr 19, 2016 8:43am Apr 19, 2016 8:43am
Good morning everyone,

That big spike up last night was a short squeeze in my opinion, taking out all of the stops around the .6970 area. Sometimes there's just no real reason for large movements in nzd which is why tight stop losses are very important (I've learned that the hard way). But you guys shouldn't be automatically thinking to short nzd just because its popped up quite a bit. In my experience, once nzd starts moving irrationally, it can take a long time to get back to normal.

I'm not saying you cant make money shorting at this point, I would just be extremely careful and you shouldn't hesitate to cut losses very quickly... even before you think you are totally wrong. If you are keeping your risk reward ratio above about 3:1, and being disciplined you will make money (I aim for 5:1 ideally).

I don't trade spikes (more hard lessons), unless I'm already in it before. So I am just staying to the sidelines until some sort of structure forms and I have a better idea of where the price might be headed.

Good luck.
  • #11,325
  • Edited 11:59am Apr 19, 2016 11:43am | Edited 11:59am
Quoting Liza J
{quote} Thanks Yeoman, I always have that kind of conversation happening in myself,lol. Sometimes my heart or my mind win, or they both point me to the same direction. As for Freeweed reply, I have to admit it nearly makes me cry...yeah. Maybe freeweed doesn't meant it to be taken in a bad way, or it's just for fun reply and my mistake because I took it to heart, maybe because am a girl and girl's are emotional being, that goes to show emotional people are not meant to be a trader but at least am trying...and forex is clearly a man's world. Way...
Oh no miss Liza, don't even think of going back to your cave and leave us here alone to deal with mighty kiwi..
  • #11,326
  • Apr 19, 2016 11:46am Apr 19, 2016 11:46am
Quoting Fx_Anil
IMHO, the NZDUSD should witness a pullback from 0.7050-55 {image}
​nailed it, I have 7070
  • #11,327
  • Apr 19, 2016 1:26pm Apr 19, 2016 1:26pm
"These days, there are many more deep intellectuals in the business, and that, coupled with the explosion of information on the Internet, creates an illusion that there is an explanation for everything and that the primary task is simply to find that explanation. As a result, technical analysis is at the bottom of the study list for many of the younger generation, particularly since the skill often requires them to close their eyes and trust price action." - Paul Tudor Jones

Trade based on where the price is going, not where you think it should be going based on fundamentals.
  • #11,328
  • Apr 19, 2016 6:00pm Apr 19, 2016 6:00pm
Hit 7050 twice within 4 hours...I'm not sure how to register that, could this still be going up???
  • #11,329
  • Apr 19, 2016 8:20pm Apr 19, 2016 8:20pm
Quoting FallingSky
Hit 7050 twice within 4 hours...I'm not sure how to register that, could this still be going up???
I say resistance. Wheeler is gonna have a big decision to make real soon. Drop the interest rates or leave them alone and suffer the consequences of a higher kiwi valuation.
  • #11,330
  • Apr 19, 2016 9:35pm Apr 19, 2016 9:35pm
Quoting idaho19
{quote} I say resistance. Wheeler is gonna have a big decision to make real soon. Drop the interest rates or leave them alone and suffer the consequences of a higher kiwi valuation.
There is nothing wrong with a strong NZD when your exports are in great demand as the dairy price suggested last night .

A strong NZD can be equally beneficial to the NZ economy
  • #11,331
  • Apr 19, 2016 9:36pm Apr 19, 2016 9:36pm
Quoting idaho19
{quote} I say resistance. Wheeler is gonna have a big decision to make real soon. Drop the interest rates or leave them alone and suffer the consequences of a higher kiwi valuation.
yes you are correct idaho19 fontera alone losses 150 million for every cent the dollar gos up so wheller must act ,he is considerably conspicuouse by his and his peers abscense lately
  • #11,332
  • Apr 19, 2016 9:52pm Apr 19, 2016 9:52pm
Quoting Mm8
{quote} yes you are correct idaho19 fontera alone losses 150 million for every cent the dollar gos up so wheller must act ,he is considerably conspicuouse by his and his peers abscense lately
So Wheeler is now a milk trader ?

You think Fonterra just sits there completely unhedged on currency or commodity exposure ?
  • #11,333
  • Apr 19, 2016 11:31pm Apr 19, 2016 11:31pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} ​nailed it, I have 7070
Great then
  • #11,334
  • Apr 20, 2016 2:58am Apr 20, 2016 2:58am
Quoting idaho19
{quote} I say resistance. Wheeler is gonna have a big decision to make real soon. Drop the interest rates or leave them alone and suffer the consequences of a higher kiwi valuation.
wheeler, it's so afraid of the market, I would not be surprised if even increase interest rates next week!
  • #11,335
  • Apr 20, 2016 2:59am Apr 20, 2016 2:59am
Hmm.. reversal @ 0.7200 may be possible - weekly charts. I think the bulls still have the upperhand. Although when looking at AUS200 a reversal may be imminent..

Again patcience is once more the key.

Grz

Brabo
  • #11,336
  • Apr 20, 2016 7:23pm Apr 20, 2016 7:23pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} look that's fine everyone is entitled to have their own opinion. bull market right? So do you have a target on the long side for this bull market? Is it 7500 8000 8500? My take is clear on the charts and I will reinforce it once again. NZDUSD is not going to trade above 7050 this quarter. We will push / max out close to 7050 and then sell off hard to 6500-6600. There is no bull market in NZD USD period. No fundumentals support this claim. Put 7050 on your chart and watch this level next few sessions. {image}...
so I guess I missed this by 5 pips. now bulls take care. there will be some bounces but pretty much game over now.
  • #11,337
  • Apr 20, 2016 7:28pm Apr 20, 2016 7:28pm
NU will push higher now to re-test 7000-7020 where you can look for price rejection and look to get in short. TP 6500-6600.
  • #11,338
  • Apr 20, 2016 7:30pm Apr 20, 2016 7:30pm
Cant understand the NZD weakness.

Fundamentally the NZ economy is in good shape compared to Australia.

However in this climate nothing makes sense.. equities driven higher by cheap capital with no improved earnings and certain currency pairs defying logic .

Herd mentality is gaining day by day .. and this becomes very dangerous ... bloody mindless trading results in events like .. Tulip crash .. 1929 Wall St..

What I do know is that everything will correct itself at some stage once sanity restores... it will take one event .. and that will be the excuse.
  • #11,339
  • Apr 20, 2016 8:07pm Apr 20, 2016 8:07pm
Quoting lasty
Cant understand the NZD weakness. Fundamentally the NZ economy is in good shape compared to Australia. However in this climate nothing makes sense.. equities driven higher by cheap capital with no improved earnings and certain currency pairs defying logic . Herd mentality is gaining day by day .. and this becomes very dangerous ... bloody mindless trading results in events like .. Tulip crash .. 1929 Wall St.. What I do know is that everything will correct itself at some stage once sanity restores... it will take one event .. and that will be the...
never underestimate herd mentality and dairy farmers
  • #11,340
  • Apr 20, 2016 9:44pm Apr 20, 2016 9:44pm
Quoting asgcorp
NU will push higher now to re-test 7000-7020 where you can look for price rejection and look to get in short. TP 6500-6600.
Okay, let's see what happens
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