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  • #96,441
  • Apr 17, 2016 9:41pm Apr 17, 2016 9:41pm
This is a very negative article regarding NZD and AUD. It discusses all the negative fundamental factors previously pointed out on this thread.

http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies...ure-australian
  • #96,442
  • Apr 17, 2016 9:53pm Apr 17, 2016 9:53pm
Quoting Blackopal
This is a very negative article regarding NZD and AUD. It discusses all the negative fundamental factors previously pointed out on this thread. http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies...ure-australian
current aussie debt stands at around 500 billion or 5 trillion in US terms and climbing..

When abbott was elected the forcast for 15/16 was around 40 billion and 23 billion for 16/17

Just think we have gone through the biggest commodity boom in history and we have a 500 billion dollar debt that needs more debt just to pay the interest.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,443
  • Apr 17, 2016 10:01pm Apr 17, 2016 10:01pm
Seeing signs that price is going to fluctuate around this 7650......... either we move to the 7550-7580 support or the pair bounces after this consolidation to cover the gap. My bet is on the latter, we may get get a print higher than last friday if it decides to cover the gap. Chances are 7750 thereabout is an immediate target.
  • #96,444
  • Apr 17, 2016 10:05pm Apr 17, 2016 10:05pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} current aussie debt stands at around 500 billion or 5 trillion in US terms and climbing.. When abbott was elected the forcast for 15/16 was around 40 billion and 23 billion for 16/17 Just think we have gone through the biggest commodity boom in history and we have a 500 billion dollar debt that needs more debt just to pay the interest.

I knew you would appreciate this article Paul. The writing is on the wall for the AUD, and has been for some time now. I've been playing it primarily by the charts, while

being very mindful of the deteriorating fundamentals. I'm expecting it to drop substantially soon, and today's news re the Opec meeting brings the due date forward. The

simple fact is the rise in commodity prices can't last, as supply exceeds demand. I will be building a short position, while still doing some day trading based on short term

PA. Selling AUD and NZD today.
  • #96,445
  • Apr 17, 2016 10:10pm Apr 17, 2016 10:10pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote}Selling AUD and NZD today.
What price did you sell?
  • #96,446
  • Apr 17, 2016 10:14pm Apr 17, 2016 10:14pm
Quoting 10cents
{quote} What price did you sell?

.76747 AUD .6917 NZD
  • #96,447
  • Apr 17, 2016 10:15pm Apr 17, 2016 10:15pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} I knew you would appreciate this article Paul. The writing is on the wall for the AUD, and has been for some time now. I've been playing it primarily by the charts, while being very mindful of the deteriorating fundamentals. I'm expecting it to drop substantially soon, and today's news re the Opec meeting brings the due date forward. The simple fact is the rise in commodity prices can't last, as supply exceeds demand. I will be building a short position, while still doing some day trading based on short term PA. Selling AUD and NZD today....
and to think the Liberal/National coalition go into Govt on a mantra of "Labours Debt"
historically when the libs are in the Aussie dollar is less than 60c to the USD
  • #96,448
  • Apr 17, 2016 10:24pm Apr 17, 2016 10:24pm
But they can always claim it's inherited from Labour. And it usually is. But the Liberal clowns who are in now, and losing popularity very rapidly, change budget and tax
plans on a daily basis. Currently they plan to bring the budget into surplus by raising taxes even higher on alcohol and cigarettes. I think they have calculated

about $350 p/pack of cigarettes should do the trick (Malcolm pulled that figure out of Scott"s ass.
  • #96,449
  • Apr 17, 2016 10:41pm Apr 17, 2016 10:41pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} .76747 AUD .6917 NZD
you have to be careful because alot of the time the gap gets filled before it runs down again.

Seems to be staying under 100ma on h1 and 200 ma on 30m.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,450
  • Apr 17, 2016 11:14pm Apr 17, 2016 11:14pm
Quoting Blackopal
But they can always claim it's inherited from Labour. And it usually is. But the Liberal clowns who are in now, and losing popularity very rapidly, change budget and tax plans on a daily basis. Currently they plan to bring the budget into surplus by raising taxes even higher on alcohol and cigarettes. I think they have calculated about $350 p/pack of cigarettes should do the trick (Malcolm pulled that figure out of Scott"s ass.
hahaha so true :nerd:
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #96,451
  • Apr 17, 2016 11:23pm Apr 17, 2016 11:23pm
Quoting Blackopal
But they can always claim it's inherited from Labour. And it usually is. But the Liberal clowns who are in now, and losing popularity very rapidly, change budget and tax plans on a daily basis. Currently they plan to bring the budget into surplus by raising taxes even higher on alcohol and cigarettes. I think they have calculated about $350 p/pack of cigarettes should do the trick (Malcolm pulled that figure out of Scott"s ass.
Well, smoking is bad for your health anyway. People should quit and never worry about the price of that SHIT anymore.
  • #96,452
  • Apr 17, 2016 11:47pm Apr 17, 2016 11:47pm
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} Well, smoking is bad for your health anyway. People should quit and never worry about the price of that SHIT anymore.
But what an absurdity to raise taxes claiming it to be an incentive for people to quit, yet project the revenue raised from it as if nobody would give up smoking?
Also I see more and more imported black market cigarettes from Asia and it'll only grow given the raising profit incentive...
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #96,453
  • Apr 18, 2016 12:17am Apr 18, 2016 12:17am
Quoting stulic
{quote} But what an absurdity to raise taxes claiming it to be an incentive for people to quit, yet project the revenue raised from it as if nobody would give up smoking? Also I see more and more imported black market cigarettes from Asia and it'll only grow given the raising profit incentive...
Agree. Cigarettes in other countries cost peanuts.
  • #96,454
  • Apr 18, 2016 12:35am Apr 18, 2016 12:35am
makes it so worth going expat, I have few friends who only come back to work for 6 mths and then like elsewhere
  • #96,455
  • Apr 18, 2016 12:36am Apr 18, 2016 12:36am
Quoting stulic
{quote} But what an absurdity to raise taxes claiming it to be an incentive for people to quit, yet project the revenue raised from it as if nobody would give up smoking? Also I see more and more imported black market cigarettes from Asia and it'll only grow given the raising profit incentive...
But if you are a politician you can see growing black market as more jobs (even if they do / don't show up in our 'marvelous' statistics) and could get around the other issue you raise by only accepting immigrants that smoke (hence maintain revenue whilst people quit).

No they aren't my true thoughts on what we should do but you don't have to read between the lines to know I'm not a fan of politicians.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #96,456
  • Apr 18, 2016 12:49am Apr 18, 2016 12:49am
Quoting dab
{quote} But if you are a politician you can see growing black market as more jobs (even if they do / don't show up in our 'marvelous' statistics) and could get around the other issue you raise by only accepting immigrants that smoke (hence maintain revenue whilst people quit).
Interesting take wouldn't even surprise me.
I do admit I smoke and although I make good money, $40 a pack would be simply unaffordable.

Anyway, on topic in case we do indeed close the gap, I'm looking to add more shorts around 07680.
Also shorting ASX200 heavily after that gap was filled @5158
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM30.png Size: 49 KB
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #96,457
  • Edited 1:22am Apr 18, 2016 12:56am | Edited 1:22am
Well that was quicker and stronger than expected
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #96,458
  • Apr 18, 2016 1:17am Apr 18, 2016 1:17am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} you have to be careful because alot of the time the gap gets filled before it runs down again. Seems to be staying under 100ma on h1 and 200 ma on 30m.

True it is a day to try to be careful, but there is a lot of volatility out there! Oil is bouncing up and down, causing fluctuations everywhere. I think if you want to make trades tonight, or even hold ones you have, you need to carefully asses your positions and expectations and put pretty wide stops on them or close.
  • #96,459
  • Apr 18, 2016 1:24am Apr 18, 2016 1:24am
7650 is a support with 7750 thereabout as a resistance, shorts at supports are always risky unless the trader knows what he is doing.
  • #96,460
  • Apr 18, 2016 1:27am Apr 18, 2016 1:27am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} True it is a day to try to be careful, but there is a lot of volatility out there! Oil is bouncing up and down, causing fluctuations everywhere. I think if you want to make trades tonight, or even hold ones you have, you need to carefully asses your positions and expectations and put pretty wide stops on them or close.
That was quite an impressive H1 candle, wonder if we'll break 77 and then have a crack at Friday's 7730? Certainly plenty of room to the upside to squeeze so many shorts out.
Don't get mad, get even!
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