The Fundamentals of Trading

Hello,
I hope you have not decided to stop posting because of all of these attacks. Please don't stop because those who appreciate your works are more than those attacking.


And like you said anyone that doesn't like your style can leave. I think it's pretty simple.

Good Afternoon All

Been a busy morning lots of gaps today, so we are seeing a bit of action in Asia. The yen pairs look the most interesting at the moment.

EJ has broken the little trench of SR it was in and is now below 122.00, the next block will be between 11900>120.00 but it dosent look all that impressive. The top side looks better for a retest with a little area starting at 124.86>12530 last time it stayed there only for about 12 hours before falling 230 pips I am anticipating some unfilled stuff there if we go back up the hill.

CADJPY - I am a bit on the fence with this one, there is a 50 pip gap from 8370 to 8420 which I would think the market would want to close, with scope for it to come to 8460, if it goes past there then I am reassessing my analysis. On the downside their is 8200-8170, although there was definitely buy orders waiting last time, there hasn't been enough time and I think they would have been soaked up by now. I like the levels below at 8050 ish but even better at 7950 ish for longs.

AUDJPY - The Aussie also has a gap to close from 8320 to 8360, if we move up then their is a decent level at 8488 to 8517, last time around very little time at this level and then ran down the hill 200, this should ensure we see unfilled sellers this time around. On the downside its a watch and act scenario, we have so many levels there that have been hit recently, so I won't be making any bold predictions at the moment.

GBPJPY - is a f@cking mess unless it wants to go near 15820, there is a half decent level there, watch and act nothing excites me here.

USDJPY - on the topside I see a level starting at 10995 but its not perfect if you look when it passed through there last time it stopped and paused before falling through thats not ideal price action. If it goes lower there isn't much in the way till 10600, and then if it gets under 10520 then it breaks into a block of activity so that could be the short term bottom for this pair, we'll see if and when it gets there.

Simon

GBPUSD

Its been a bit of a non event lately I only really can see two things in the longer TF charts for this that I would consider when the time comes:

On the topside I see a half decent level at 14360-14380, although I am not excited over it, could easily blow through here
On the downside 14000, 13925 and probably best chance for a long 13850

Simon

hi, simon,
i think my trade base on your experience , but i can not find more stone which you have to trade

GBPAUD

Its been a slow grind to the bottom for this, there has now been an incredible amount of up and back action between 19600 and 18500, so when the break comes to the upside I expect little resistance until we get to 19600 where we could find the first sellers. If it does go up then I see the medium term top (a few weeks) being around 20100, as it will probably grind hard from 19600 to 20100.

On the bottom side we have a very painful and slow grind in my opinion to 18030.

Simon

what does this mean

Love your style Simon....it follows mine VERY closely. Keep the posts coming. Dew9

thank you for your sharing

UCAD

There is a bit of clutter on this pair on the intraday charts, its easy to get kicked around at the moment, so perhaps better to speak about whats coming up by looking at the 1h,4h and beyond.

On the topside I can only see 13340 as a reasonable level to short from, it over 1 month old now, it based for 20 hours or so then fell 400 pips, so whilst some of the sells would of been soaked up during the base period, i still think there would be some unfilled sells waiting. In terms of whats ahead this looks the most likely at the moment.

On the bottomside - I see the gap from where we are now down to 12900 being closed but then I don't see anything except it might fall a bit more from 12800 to 12650 but would reassess if we get there.

Simon

AUD

I dont see how this pair goes higher once the gap is closed, potential for it to go 7713 to do that, although whatever flight of fancy the commodity price wants to do is probably where this thing goes next. Given the staggered nature of its rise, taking out all the buying and selling as it goes then the ascent from the top will be rapid in my opinion.

This thing looks like an exhausted hooker on sunday morning. I see 7180 as the first real stop on the train, however I have been having a dreadful run with this pair so anything would seem possible at the moment.

Simon

ECAD
There is a nice level around 14700 in this pair its had one run at it in early europe we will see what happens, but looking feasible for now
Simon

Picking The Best Levels



Simon

ECAD
So the gap is closed now so now the lottery begins on which way do we start to look for levels
Simon

GBPAUD

has also closed its gap so its a watch and act from now

Simon

EJ

If Ej can break 12270 then I say it can make 12420 IMO, but its not looking overly enthusiastic about it

Simon

GBPAUD

If 18420 is broken then imo we are paying a visit to 18300 again.

Simon

GBPCAD
Has also closed its gap, lets see what it does now
Simon

Up next

EJ breaking into 12270's as I said earlier I think if it gets in here and bases then we see 12420

Simon

AUD

not far from the gap close
watch and act after that
Simon

The Human Condition

Why do traders over trade for the same reason grandma gambles money into poker machines.

Its the blinking and flashing lights. I bet if your trading platform and charts were a dull grey and you couldn't change it then broker commissions would go down.

If you think you are over trader then there is an easy test to find out, withdraw $100 go to the local club/casino with poker machines, order your self a few alcoholic drinks, in fact drink regularly (this will test you) then sit down at a machine and see if you can stare at it for 4 hours without being tempted to gamble, if you pass the test then your not seduced by the bling and motivated only by the price action.

Simon