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  • #581
  • Apr 8, 2016 3:56pm Apr 8, 2016 3:56pm
I would like to share your opinion about it. In fact, it is very easy to know where it is heading in the near future, just watch Russian news about it, if they say that the dollar will rise - we sell, if they say that the dollar will fall - to buy. They lie constantly in the media =) My friend from autumn until December 2014 bought a new motorcycle with the help of this, every time he heard the statement of the CBR that the dollar peaked and will fall - he had bought, and so about 10 repetition)
  • #582
  • Apr 8, 2016 3:57pm Apr 8, 2016 3:57pm
Quoting EasyGame
I would like to share your opinion about it. In fact, it is very easy to know where it is heading in the near future, just watch Russian news about it, if they say that the dollar will rise - we sell, if they say that the dollar will fall - to buy. They lie constantly in the media =) My friend from autumn until December 2014 bought a new motorcycle with the help of this, every time he heard the statement of the CBR that the dollar peaked and will fall - he had bought, and so about 10 repetition)
They recently announced that the crisis is not over and the dollar rises above, you need to understand what it will result =)
  • #583
  • Apr 8, 2016 4:01pm Apr 8, 2016 4:01pm
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  • #584
  • Apr 9, 2016 6:22am Apr 9, 2016 6:22am
Quoting EasyGame
I would like to share your opinion about it. In fact, it is very easy to know where it is heading in the near future, juinterst watch Russian news about it, if they say that the dollar will rise - we sell, if they say that the dollar will fall - to buy. They lie constantly in the media =) My friend from autumn until December 2014 bought a new motorcycle with the help of this, every time he heard the statement of the CBR that the dollar peaked and will fall - he had bought, and so about 10 repetition)
interesting perspective, thanks for sharing that EasyGame, I agree that the direction is down.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #585
  • Apr 9, 2016 11:58pm Apr 9, 2016 11:58pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} interesting perspective, thanks for sharing that EasyGame, I agree that the direction is down.
You can get more information here - www.cbr.ru
  • #586
  • Apr 10, 2016 5:54am Apr 10, 2016 5:54am
Quoting EasyGame
{quote} You can get more information here - www.cbr.ru
Link is only Russian. I was thinking that the Ruble was more likely to depreciate because the government is still offering high interest rates on deposits. 10% is nothing to sneeze at with money in the bank
  • #587
  • Apr 10, 2016 1:00pm Apr 10, 2016 1:00pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Link is only Russian. I was thinking that the Ruble was more likely to depreciate because the government is still offering high interest rates on deposits. 10% is nothing to sneeze at with money in the bank
Sorry stylinex I dont understand. Why would a currency depreciate if the holders of this currency enjoy high interest rates? I would much rather prefer to hold rubles if I get 11% interest in my deposits rather than USD that I get zero.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #588
  • Apr 10, 2016 1:19pm Apr 10, 2016 1:19pm
Not trading USD/RUB at all due to unpredictable volatility, however if I was to trade USD/RUB I'd review light crude chart first.
Currently EW on H4 points to further weakness and dip back to 30 usd/bbl.
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  • #589
  • Apr 10, 2016 2:06pm Apr 10, 2016 2:06pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} Sorry stylinex I dont understand. Why would a currency depreciate if the holders of this currency enjoy high interest rates? I would much rather prefer to hold rubles if I get 11% interest in my deposits rather than USD that I get zero.
And in fact, is in Russia in all my life, I would like to tell you a little bit of the economy in this country, in fact, inflation is higher than the interest on deposits, it is about 20 percent at the moment, and if you deposit each year you lose 10% of their money.
In any case, they do the same thing for more than ten years is that every once in a deadlock. They change the interest rate in order to reduce the inflation rate, although the rate of inflation is directly proportional interest rate, if the company takes the money borrowed to build (engines, refrigerators, televisions, or any other items). What percentage of that it must return the bank will be embedded in the price of goods, thus the inflation rate remains at the same place. And the 11 percent rate in Russia will not give any benefits!
  • #590
  • Apr 10, 2016 2:16pm Apr 10, 2016 2:16pm
Quoting EasyGame
{quote} And in fact, is in Russia in all my life, I would like to tell you a little bit of the economy in this country, in fact, inflation is higher than the interest on deposits, it is about 20 percent at the moment, and if you deposit each year you lose 10% of their money. In any case, they do the same thing for more than ten years is that every once in a deadlock. They change the interest rate in order to reduce the inflation rate, although the rate of inflation is directly proportional interest rate, if the company takes the money borrowed to...
I totally agree but if it is an consolation, it is the same thing globally at the moment. Do you think that inflation in the US or Europe is zero? Of course not, but they give you zero interest in the bank account because the monetary policy at the moment globally is ultra accommodative, meaning that they are giving free money to the banks, not to us the people of course. In Europe or in the US if you as an individual ask for a loan you still need to pay 5-7% and give a thousand guarantees.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #591
  • Apr 10, 2016 2:26pm Apr 10, 2016 2:26pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} I totally agree but if it is an consolation, it is the same thing globally at the moment. Do you think that inflation in the US or Europe is zero? Of course not, but they give you zero interest in the bank account because the monetary policy at the moment globally is ultra accommodative, meaning that they are giving free money to the banks, not to us the people of course. In Europe or in the US if you as an individual ask for a loan you still need to pay 5-7% and give a thousand guarantees.
So in this sense shorting the USD/RUB pair makes a lot of sense if you are bullish in oil. It is a way to play the upside in oil while making money on the swap every night. It doesn't happen very often that you have such a possibility.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #592
  • Apr 10, 2016 2:59pm Apr 10, 2016 2:59pm
Pre-market on USD/RUB

interesting...

D.P.
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Hunting High and Low
  • #593
  • Apr 12, 2016 10:39am Apr 12, 2016 10:39am
Quoting manosk
{quote} thank you. What are these lines? And you are waiting there to buy or this is your TP in the short trade? I see the pair testing my lines at 69.32 currently, before going to 65.90 the 200 DMA.
Update on the short USD/RUB trade: It is approaching an area that will most probably be important but we will only know at the end of this week. This is the 65.32 level today, the 50 WMA. If it breaks this level it will be the first time since 2013 when the USD/RUB rate broke it decisively to the upside. Since then numerous attempts to break below it have failed (in Aug 2013, Oct 2013 and Jun 2014).
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #594
  • Apr 12, 2016 10:44am Apr 12, 2016 10:44am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Update on the short USD/RUB trade: It is approaching an area that will most probably be important but we will only know at the end of this week. This is the 65.32 level today, the 50 WMA. If it breaks this level it will be the first time since 2013 when the USD/RUB rate broke it decisively to the upside. Since then numerous attempts to break below it have failed (in Aug 2013, Oct 2013 and Jun 2014).
We are going lower harder.

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #595
  • Apr 12, 2016 12:45pm Apr 12, 2016 12:45pm
ok so it is 65.38 now, earlier was around 65.265. where do we think it's heading from here? back up most likely? or further down because oil has has not really fallen?
  • #596
  • Apr 12, 2016 12:51pm Apr 12, 2016 12:51pm
Quoting shnackattack
ok so it is 65.38 now, earlier was around 65.265. where do we think it's heading from here? back up most likely? or further down because oil has has not really fallen?
There is no direct connection between oil and ruble prices. Oil influences on ruble with the weight of about 40-45% only.
So the prices rather go downwards furthermore.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #597
  • Apr 12, 2016 12:54pm Apr 12, 2016 12:54pm
Quoting shnackattack
ok so it is 65.38 now, earlier was around 65.265. where do we think it's heading from here? back up most likely? or further down because oil has has not really fallen?
USD/RUB is a good oil play because it offers the upside of oil (if you are bullish) with a profitable swap. So if oil goes higher we will see USD/RUB lower. In the meantime if you are short USD/RUB you are making money every night. I dont really know where we are going in the long term. Things are a bit murky this week with the meeting in Doha. I believe ultimately investors will be disappointed with the outcome whatever that is. So there will be some pullback in oil and USD/RUB as well. The more interesting question is where could USD/RUB be by the end of the week and I think the answer could be as low as 61 assuming that oil continuous going up this week on rumors, which is a reasonable assumption.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #598
  • Apr 14, 2016 5:24am Apr 14, 2016 5:24am
Quote
The more interesting question is where could USD/RUB be by the end of the week and I think the answer could be as low as 61 assuming that oil continuous going up this week on rumors, which is a reasonable assumption.

drop to 61 beetween now and tomorrow will be a hell of a move. Not sure about that though
  • #599
  • Apr 15, 2016 2:56am Apr 15, 2016 2:56am
Quoting shnackattack
{quote} drop to 61 beetween now and tomorrow will be a hell of a move. Not sure about that though
I said first that:
Quote
manosk

Update on the short USD/RUB trade: It is approaching an area that will most probably be important but we will only know at the end of this week. This is the 65.32 level today, the 50 WMA. If it breaks this level it will be the first time since 2013 when the USD/RUB rate broke it decisively to the upside. Since then numerous attempts to break below it have failed (in Aug 2013, Oct 2013 and Jun 2014).

this test was reject and bounced hard so the prediction is not valid anymore. In addition we have not seen a pre-Doha spike in oil that could exacerbate movements in USD/RUB
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #600
  • Apr 15, 2016 3:14am Apr 15, 2016 3:14am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I said first that: {quote} this test was reject and bounced hard so the prediction is not valid anymore. In addition we have not seen a pre-Doha spike in oil that could exacerbate movements in USD/RUB

But given that we are seeing indecision and no directionality in oil at the moment, compounded with the fact that everyone is expecting a disappointing result from Doha I will not be surprised to see actually something positive coming out of Doha, positive in the way that investors interpret it. So we might see a post-Doha spike in oil which will be a great outcome for our USD/RUB trade.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
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