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Q A M Trading Strategy

  • #841
  • Apr 12, 2016 5:18am Apr 12, 2016 5:18am
Quoting Shuael
Hello Masterrmind, thank you for the deep explanation. Is your global Sl around 124.200, near the resistence level? on the EJ trade?
Stops from 124.200 level and higher actually which are reasonable considering the chart.

Stops are likely to be modified later!

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #842
  • Apr 13, 2016 12:35am Apr 13, 2016 12:35am
Hello,
Had two trade yesterday.
I saw AUDJPY and USDJPY having the same behaviour during my trading window for this reason i decided to go short on both.
One worked out the other went horribly wrong

EURJPY (5MIN - 40)
One trade only, decided to exit to lock the profit, after 2 candles a blue box was printed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj12_04.png Size: 47 KB


AUDJPY (5MIN - 40)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj12_04.png Size: 59 KB

Ok, here i made something wrong for sure.Late in the trading session the spread went wilde. Infact the 3d trade had 5pips spread, which is huge considering that the price was moving in a 12-18 pip range.
I wanted also to have more patience and try to enter more trades.
I had to left the trade overnight ( very bad decision..)
I set up the SL and TP (at break even), the TP was missed for 1 pip
I managed the trade very badly, what could i do in these cases?
Maybe i shouldn't even have traded this pair?
Shuael
  • #843
  • Apr 13, 2016 1:38am Apr 13, 2016 1:38am
Quoting Shuael
Hello, Had two trade yesterday. I saw AUDJPY and USDJPY having the same behaviour during my trading window for this reason i decided to go short on both. One worked out the other went horribly wrong EURJPY (5MIN - 40) One trade only, decided to exit to lock the profit, after 2 candles a blue box was printed. {image} AUDJPY (5MIN - 40) {image} Ok, here i made something wrong for sure.Late in the trading session the spread went wilde. Infact the 3d trade had 5pips spread, which is huge considering that the price was moving in a 12-18 pip...
It happens that you might miss TP by a pip.

I can recall several trades when that has occurred and typically it happens the minute you look away from the chart.... funny that!

That's one issue with the trading window slots.

Towards the end of the day ie heading into the end of NY session the spreads can widen quite ridiculously so you really have to watch this carefully and see how much it impacts on your trading especially when the trading ranges are tight!

Perhaps look to end cycles sooner rather than later!
This is not always practical though.

If you consider the Asian Trading session the spreads start off quite wide and then start to narrow (in general) due to higher market activity.
But in your session its kind of the opposite, trading activity slows down towards the end of the day and spreads start to widen.

So you might need to look at the spreads and the brokers you use and try to find a happy middle ground.
It could also mean selecting other 'go-to' pairs or if you decide to trade 2 pairs make sure at least 1 pair has a reasonably 'tight' spread compared to the other.

Practice is all that's required you'll soon start to make sense of the market .... it is chaotic afterall

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #844
  • Apr 13, 2016 3:18am Apr 13, 2016 3:18am
Wednesday Cycle

EURGBP [M15; 10 - manual]

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 86 KB


3 long winners for a small net gain

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #845
  • Apr 13, 2016 9:04pm Apr 13, 2016 9:04pm
Thursday Trading Cycle

Long on the EURCHF pair

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 99 KB


Masterrmind..........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #846
  • Apr 13, 2016 9:08pm Apr 13, 2016 9:08pm
AUD pairs affected by red news

EURGBP pair aggressively UP

EJ, NJ and UJ looking for a long entry

Masterrmind........ :nerd:
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #847
  • Apr 13, 2016 9:17pm Apr 13, 2016 9:17pm
EURJPY [M15; 10 - manual]

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 93 KB


Long cycle added with TP just below the pivot!

Concern is going long from just below the DO line .... hmmm!

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #848
  • Apr 13, 2016 9:31pm Apr 13, 2016 9:31pm
Quoting Masterrmind
EURJPY [M15; 10 - manual] {image} Long cycle added with TP just below the pivot! Concern is going long from just below the DO line .... hmmm! Masterrmind...........
Going long when price is under the DO line could mean bearing additional DD since price could simply keep going down until it meets a key level of support.

Best not to to take trades from this location.

Cycles could still work out ok but why enter trades that have less positive factors on your side.

I hope the long EJ cycle is clear ..... so think about entries before committing!

Masterrmind............ :nerd:
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #849
  • Apr 14, 2016 1:39am Apr 14, 2016 1:39am
EURCHF [M15; 10 - manual]

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 102 KB


EURJPY [M15; 10 - manual]

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 98 KB


How would you manage these 2 cycles?

10 longs @ 0.02 lots a piece on EURCHF
10 longs @ 0.02 lots a piece on EURJPY

Masterrmind........... :nerd:
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #850
  • Apr 14, 2016 1:52am Apr 14, 2016 1:52am
Quoting Masterrmind
EURCHF [M15; 10 - manual] {image} EURJPY [M15; 10 - manual] {image} How would you manage these 2 cycles? 10 longs @ 0.02 lots a piece on EURCHF 10 longs @ 0.02 lots a piece on EURJPY Masterrmind........... :nerd:
Think about the following:

1. Assigned risk per cycle and total assigned risk

2. Start thinking about a progressive tightening of SLs

3. Shift TPs further out but try to keep some TPs within recent PA levels

4. ATW has ended so what does that suggest?

5. What can we expect heading into London?

6. Are there too many positions open at the same time?

7. Should any trades be closed out? If so how many and why?

8. What other hidden dangers are there?

These are the types of questions that should be going through your thinking processes every time a situation such as this arises!

By understanding what can happen and what can potentially go wrong when trading multiple cycles of trades you are becoming far better informed and more experienced traders.

Showing only winning cycles of trades will not help you at all if you get yourself into a bad cycle!

This thinking process should eventually become automatic so you'll know what to do.

Masterrmind............ :nerd:
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #851
  • Apr 14, 2016 4:50am Apr 14, 2016 4:50am
I'm not trading these days.
You are right about spread, they can kill your possible profit.
The loss i took was 6 times bigger the profit i made ( it was the max DD that i could handle).
Need to think about a way to manage better my trades.
After the ATW it's possible that the pair range become bigger ( also trending situations). The number of positions depends on your overall max DD and risk per cycle, but it's better to be carefull because you'are out of the ATW.
Don't you think that allowing a DD of 30% is too much?
I'm around 10% and it's pretty stressful

Good trading
  • #852
  • Apr 14, 2016 6:10am Apr 14, 2016 6:10am
Quoting Shuael
I'm not trading these days. You are right about spread, they can kill your possible profit. The loss i took was 6 times bigger the profit i made ( it was the max DD that i could handle). Need to think about a way to manage better my trades. After the ATW it's possible that the pair range become bigger ( also trending situations). The number of positions depends on your overall max DD and risk per cycle, but it's better to be carefull because you'are out of the ATW. Don't you think that allowing a DD of 30% is too much? I'm around 10% and it's pretty...
Yes 30% is too much for sure.

The problem is that if you allow the account to get down to say 30% floating DD and you then decide to apply Plan B which is to open relatively much larger lot trades then your account might be pushed in handling the required margin especially if you attempt or need to open a few of these bigger trades.

Therefore, if you attempt to stay at 5% to 10% maximum floating DD then the minute you see a breach of the 10% mark via the indicator then you can quickly close out 1 or 2 trades in the cycle to keep DD <10%.

Also by assigning no more than 10% your account can easily handle a series of larger lot FIFO trades to recover any losses (unless you get that wrong too).

The idea though should be to limit the number of trades in a given cycle and to close out some trades than to let them run into the next day.
You saw the headaches that can be created on the UJ cycle I took live by allowing trades to continue!

The assigned total maximum floating DD of 10% is just a number so each trader needs to determine what risk suits him or her.

You don't want to go too high though because if you get caught in a bad cycle and lose say 30% of the account then its a massive challenge in trying to recover from this loss.

Remember you need to make much more than a 30% net gain on your account to get back to 1K if you just lost 30%.

BALANCE AFTER 30% LOSS is: $1000 - 30%*$1000 = $700

RECOVER is: $700 + X% of $700 = $1000

X = 42.86%

So now you need to make a 42.86% net gain on the $700 just to get back to break even ie $1000 again!

What about if you keep it at 10% total risk?

BALANCE AFTER 10% LOSS is: $1000 - 10%*$1000 = $900

RECOVER is: $900 + X% of $900 = $1000

X = 11.11%

So now you need to make a 11.11% net gain on the $900 just to get back to break even ie $1000 again!

Far easier than having to make a 42% gain!

So be careful on the assigned DD you apply to your cycles.

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #853
  • Apr 14, 2016 6:37am Apr 14, 2016 6:37am
The 10% is not really the loss you should allow on a cycle.

It should be viewed as the ultimate loss if you do nothing to manage your cycle of trades.

Managing the trades implies closing some out on a minor pullback in the case of a developing strong trend against your positions (not always easy to do because its human nature to fight against any loss no matter the size).

Limiting the number of entries (no need to open a trade every time a Q box appears), this will lead to disaster
[On a very big account trading very very small lots its a totally different situation]

I've tried to show throughout this thread many bad situations so traders become very familiar with what can and will go wrong.

You just have to be so very careful trading the 1K account.

So limit the entries when you start trading live to 2-3 max until the account gets bigger.

Over the coming weekend I'll try to put together a basic trading plan, initial lot sizing, pairs to start trading with and a realistic set of goals.

I'll also upload a basic spreadsheet with compounding attached so that for a given net daily or net weekly %gain it will give traders an idea of how long it might take under favorable conditions to achieve certain milestones for example, if you consistently made 0.5 % on average every trading day how long would it take you to double your account....

Its important to have goals but its also important to realize that some days will be losers (hopefully not the full 10% but I think starting out limit the floating DD to say 3-5% and no more).

You can fill out details in the spreadsheet for each trading day and tabulate basic data such as % gain/loss, $ gained/lost etc and a comments column to make any brief but important notes about that particular trading day (bad pair choice, opened too many trades and got into a bad DD situation or any other points worthy of comment).

Then in your free time for example over the weekend spend some time going through the weekly cycles of trades you took and focus on the bad trades, why they were losers? could you have done something better to avoid the loss? Did the chart present any clues about likely exit point? Can I make improvements and do better next time?

The aim of all of this is to make you aware of your short comings, focus on improving and over time get better and more consistent results.

These habits (hopefully only the good ones) can then be transferred onto other less risky trading strategies.

Much more can be said but that's a start nonetheless!

Masterrmind........ :nerd:
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #854
  • Apr 14, 2016 7:07am Apr 14, 2016 7:07am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Yes 30% is too much for sure. The problem is that if you allow the account to get down to say 30% floating DD and you then decide to apply Plan B which is to open relatively much larger lot trades then your account might be pushed in handling the required margin especially if you attempt or need to open a few of these bigger trades. Therefore, if you attempt to stay at 5% to 10% maximum floating DD then the minute you see a breach of the 10% mark via the indicator then you can quickly close out 1 or 2 trades in the cycle to keep DD <10%....
Definitely true , I like your MM view , its the first thing trader should know b4 he/she start to trading,

first need to know Money Management and Risk Management as well.

Cheers .

Al.
Dream, believe,fight for it and you will achieve and NEVER EVER GIVE UP!
  • #855
  • Apr 14, 2016 7:45am Apr 14, 2016 7:45am
Quoting Almo2312
{quote} Definitely true , I like your MM view , its the first thing trader should know b4 he/she start to trading, first need to know Money Management and Risk Management as well. Cheers . Al.
I base all my trading on risk management!

Always ask yourself a simple question .... How much can I lose if this position goes bad?

No matter the length of time trading it never hurts to hear it one more time!

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #856
  • Apr 14, 2016 7:58am Apr 14, 2016 7:58am
Down about 4.5% today in this demo for learning purposes account.

Will the Euro strength carry through and turn a loser day into a nice winner or will it get scared at the pivot and head for the lows again.

Notice in these 2 pairs today I had 10 long entries on each cycle.

After ATW session I tightened up the stops on the EURCHF pair only to have 8 stops taken out (2 longs still running)

Whereas on the EURJPY pair I left the stops out nice and wide and price reversed well before taking them out.
The EJ pair now has price heading to the upside well away from the stops.

That's trading for you but its always a better idea to follow sound rules and work with the averages as these are more likely to work out for you over the longer term!

On the EJ pair if price gets to about 123.500 the loss will turn into a nice profit!

EURJPY [M15; 10 - manual]

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 97 KB


EURCHF [M15; 10 - manual]

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 80 KB


Note: I have just tightened up the stops again on the EJ pair just to be clear!

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #857
  • Apr 14, 2016 8:07am Apr 14, 2016 8:07am
Quoting Masterrmind
Down about 4.5% today in this demo for learning purposes account. Will the Euro strength carry through and turn a loser day into a nice winner or will it get scared at the pivot and head for the lows again. Notice in these 2 pairs today I had 10 long entries on each cycle. After ATW session I tightened up the stops on the EURCHF pair only to have 8 stops taken out (2 longs still running) Whereas on the EURJPY pair I left the stops out nice and wide and price reversed well before taking them out. The EJ pair now has price heading to the upside well...
Price pulling back from the pivot on the EJ pair.........

Attached Image


So how do we play it now?

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #858
  • Apr 14, 2016 8:13am Apr 14, 2016 8:13am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Price pulling back from the pivot on the EJ pair......... {image} So how do we play it now? Masterrmind............
You can only will price through the pivot for so long and then sooner or later a decision will need to be made!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 94 KB


1. Let the trades keep running and keep monitoring

2. Close out all the trades currently in profit and allow the rest to run

3. Close them all out now and take about a 5.5% loss for the day (the longer we wait the more likely that figure will blow out)

4. Do something else?

ps. Draw a trendline on the chart and hope price respects it or if that fails that S1 support holds.... hmmm

Masterrmind........... :nerd:
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #859
  • Apr 14, 2016 8:22am Apr 14, 2016 8:22am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} You can only will price through the pivot for so long and then sooner or later a decision will need to be made! {image} 1. Let the trades keep running and keep monitoring 2. Close out all the trades currently in profit and allow the rest to run 3. Close them all out now and take about a 5.5% loss for the day (the longer we wait the more likely that figure will blow out) 4. Do something else? ps. Draw a trendline on the chart and hope price respects it or if that fails that S1 support holds.... hmmm Masterrmind........... :nerd:
Better hurry up with a decision I'm waiting!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 38 KB


Due to the lack of a decision that daily loss is looking really bad now!

Not long now until the stops are smashed so what should we do?

ps. I won't be moving the stops lower either ... they remain as they are!

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #860
  • Apr 14, 2016 8:30am Apr 14, 2016 8:30am
Getting closer .............

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 94 KB


Don't worry its ok the recent swing low will hold up price ..... hehe ... are you sure?

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
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