The Fundamentals of Trading

Ecad
I like this for a long its setting up nicely the daily chart is looking exhausted as is the 4 hour, thats a very steep 4 days worth of falling without a break. I would like to get a long in the mid 14380's ( i know I am greedy) as this reduces my stop and risk, also I like the RR if that can be achieved. Under 14380 on a longer time frame chart is fresh air, so its hero or zero on this one.

Entry - 14380's - see what the PA is like
SL - just below that big wick under14375
TP - 14480, 14550, 14580, 14615, 14660 and 14700

See how it goes going to need some luck to be filled and not stopped out of it quickly. The line between failure and brilliance is small on this one.

Simon

Choosing High Probability

As you know I trade my own account and a couple of investor accounts I work for as well. I also look at about 13 to 15 pairs I cycle them in and out a bit depending on what there doing but I would look at least 12 everyday. I would say of that 12 there is probably 6 potential trades, then of those 6 at least 2 when I look hard at the chart would end up being 30% in my favor, so this leaves us with 4 potentials. Of the 4 at least 2 would be 50% or better and 1 would be 60% and 1 would be about 80%.

So which do you trade, well you would think that this is easy to answer but not really. I go back and look again at the 30% and 50% trades and see what would need to happen for them to become 80%, so you might tighten up your entry, putting it further away, put it right at the extreme end of a level (as Sean Lee of Forexlive and FXWW fame would say trade the edges) for instance, this might tighten it up to 70% say. You could reduce your position size hence reducing the risk.

So when that is done we look again at 80% trade is this too easy, is the big money going to move price there as they know a stack of orders might be waiting for them and once they achieve their objective the move stops (remember this is human behavior and art we are dealing with), so what you thought might of been a no brainer could look ordinary once you really start to look and think about it.

I don't say all this to put doubt in your mind, I say this so you think about every trade like its your last and you apply analysis to it as you would if you were buying a business, house etc. Treat it seriously think it about every which way and you might be surprised what you start seeing that you didn't before.

I have ran and owned businesses for a while now and the one thing I have learned talking to customers and suppliers is that its not what they are saying or put down right in front of you, its what is not in front of you or being said to you that's important.

Simon

Hi Simon,

If time permits can you please make a video for this explaination(These 3 points). Still I dont understand why 18870 and 18990 is not used.

Thanks!

no problem I am hear at my office today, I have got a couple of meetings to go then I am leaving will do it at home during the European morning.

Simon

Good Evening All

Video for GBPAUD is done its uploading now

bit late just got in from a quick bite to eat with the wife
time to get to work

Simon

AUD
7720 is possible for this pair, news time was uneventful but with the USD sell off being priced in before the news it could make it
Simon

GU

still looks like it wants a shot at the top around 14320 with news assisted
Simon

GBPAUD Video



Simon

GU Wicks



Simon

GU Trade Walkthrough



Simon

Hi there, nice videos, valuable information thanks for your time...

your welcome

GJ
Depending on news 15600 looks possible
Simon

AUD
Now or never for 7720 otherwise its not happening before London lunch otherwise it will wait for USD news.
The candle from 31st March the wick extends to 7723
Simon

AUD

I mentioned it earlier in the day but here is a beautiful Triple tap pattern (Credit - Steve from NoBrainerTrades he coined that term) he would be so proud but its validated now. He is probably still asleep being a NY resident but nice example of it here.

Simon

If you watch price action in AUD right now I am looking at a 30m chart, see how there is no sells getting any traction lower they are just holding back the longs as it fights to get to the top of the range.

this sort of action should be saying to you don't short it yet see who wins the battle first.
Simon

wake me when something happens

FFS cmon market anything

Simon

Yeah, this perpetual station keeping gets old fast. .... like we say in trucking, you ain't earning if the wheels ain't turning.

Seems like the market is waiting for the red US news coming up in 1 hour.........

AUD
respects the top
lets see what happens now
Simon