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  • #139,941
  • Apr 13, 2016 4:23pm Apr 13, 2016 4:23pm
Amazing how nearly all my entries become support or resistance in the wrong direction for what feels like hours before anything significant happens.
  • #139,942
  • Apr 13, 2016 9:55pm Apr 13, 2016 9:55pm
sisse,


If Outlook was to SELL (RED)(Sell from Extreme Tops to inside Targets; therfore, my inside target was reached for now. Clear and wait for another FADE.

I looked at it as I reached my inside target. Take profit and wait for retrace to re-enter or fade Also, we don't know if news wil supprt inflation or not. Therefore, I thought to take profit. Wait on news to determine if Mid term leg is in play or short term leg to exhaustion was in play.

I realize this view may be wrong. But, I am just trying to learn and putting all bias away. I didn't want to buy at 1290. I would have rather waited and shorted the High.
  • #139,943
  • Apr 13, 2016 10:04pm Apr 13, 2016 10:04pm
looking for a test of 1.121xx ... (Flip)

Current swing retrace ... in flow .... got stuck in the middle
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,944
  • Apr 13, 2016 11:04pm Apr 13, 2016 11:04pm
Quoting hoom
bears took the upper hand after all even after a round of bad US data nevertheless it had good revisions , tech wise , a monthly retest of 1.122x with closes above is still bullish and that's where am looking for tickets.
hi Hoom... this is why we are single minded as traders..lol.. I'm looking for a pull back to 11340 to go short, no chance today tho I think. Already got the signal for cable which had quite a fall over night Asian session... USDX heading into mid ground of my leg up posted earlier..
glgt all .....
  • #139,945
  • Apr 13, 2016 11:18pm Apr 13, 2016 11:18pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, If Outlook was to SELL (RED)(Sell from Extreme Tops to inside Targets; therfore, my inside target was reached for now. Clear and wait for another FADE. I looked at it as I reached my inside target. Take profit and wait for retrace to re-enter or fade Also, we don't know if news wil supprt inflation or not. Therefore, I thought to take profit. Wait on news to determine if Mid term leg is in play or short term leg to exhaustion was in play. I realize this view may be wrong. But, I am just trying to learn and putting all bias away. I didn't...
I'm starting to see that Sisse might try to point out that you're machine gun trading again (and trying to catch smaller fish with a bigger boat, afraid to miss out an opportunity?). I could be wrong but that's what I would think. If your map is mid term you shouldn't trade short term and vice versa. But hey it's easy for me to say. I missed all the calls! Good luck with your next position nevertheless. I'll keep following this experience, it's very educational for me. Too bad I couldn't participate in the previous one. As Pharmor said, it escalated quickly.
  • #139,946
  • Apr 14, 2016 1:08am Apr 14, 2016 1:08am
USDX chart, traded through 50% into 9515 expected consolidation for rest of leg up to 96.xx. Might hit this by end of week.. small ranges big ranges (ICT).. $ bullish/ Currencies bearish... if oil deal confirms be careful with loonie..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDXDaily Thu 14th April.png Size: 134 KB
  • #139,947
  • Edited 4:59am Apr 14, 2016 4:28am | Edited 4:59am
guys 2 questions:

ad1. can anyone of u explain why core CPI and CPI in EU MoM for MARCH is every year so huge number unlike the other months? higher prices after new-year discounts?

ad2. G/U: the dead cat bounce in terminal stage. 4th attampt to crack the low. I expect one more very slow and choppy bounce to 1,428x. why? TIMING= we need something to break the 1,413x lvl. and send it through the low. as soon as equities are in this manic mode - risk on effect= short term risk-on does not gives hand. USD/GBP macro and monetary side rather pulling in same direction short term = chop.

so? my plan: to sell the bounce/fade 1,428x! why? as equities approach the top/get over the main part of the extension - the risk effect is gonna weight on GBP/USD as its gonna be the most effected instrument = first one of the board to feel the risk? any ideas?

P.S.: if you sisse had a minute to drop a word
  • #139,948
  • Edited 6:46am Apr 14, 2016 6:15am | Edited 6:46am
ExForX: "I'm starting to see that Sisse might try to point out that you're machine gun trading again (and trying to catch smaller fish with a bigger boat, afraid to miss out an opportunity?). I could be wrong but that's what I would think. If your map is mid term you shouldn't trade short term and vice versa."

Thanks for your input into my thinking or trading errs. I think I am confused now. I know when we were at the TOP of this range (.139X) that sisse gave us the choice of either BUYING to .149X or SELLING to .1290. At the time the OUTLOOK was NEUTRAL so his info was if in a NEUTRAL OUTLOOK to FADE from Outside to inside but NOT to CENTER. So, I took the SELL and was successful.

We reached the target of .129X and we were given a choice again to either BUY to .139X or SELL to .119X. The only thing that CHANGED was the OUTLOOK from NEUTRAL to SELL. This prompted me to think I SHOULD ONLY BE SELLING. However, in sisse's info on how to respond to SELL OUTLOOK was to SELL the Extreme Tops to the inside.

I took this to mean that I would not SELL from the inside at .129X (target) and wait for a retrace to .139X or to the HH's (Exhaustion area). This is the ONLY reason I took a BUY from .129X to .139X.

I think sisse is disappointed in my decision; but, I was trying to trade according to what I believed his info meant. So many times I have screwed up and traded at the targets or kept my trade open only to watch price reverse back on me; hence, my .093X, and .0845 SHORT positions I am still in at the moment. And, that's a whole other issue that we don't need to table here! But, there was no way I was going to SELL at .129X target. I thought the very least I should wait for a bounce and sisse gave us the option to BUY or SELL from .129X. I felt .129X BUY was the most logical.

And, if I was confident the MID TERM LEG was or is in play and .17XX is no longer in this equation for a run to test the LOWS at .051X, then; I would start selling at the Highs of these moves to DOLLAR COST AVG my bad "seats" to break even if this is not the MID TERM LEG. But, I am afraid if I am wrong that I won't have enough capital to sustain the move to .18XX or so....

EDIT: to save posts space...ExForX: I can't Sell and Close. FIFO. The first position opened will be closed first at a LOSS. Better to stay put or play it down closer to my position to BE or make profit.
  • #139,949
  • Apr 14, 2016 6:43am Apr 14, 2016 6:43am
Why didn't you keep your short open? You could put your stop at BE and indeed have a better average price. If price went deeper (as it did) it would only be a good thing - getting closer to your average. If it goes back up, no worries, your stop is safely at BE. But it's too late for this now.

What you could also do now, is use the profit of your closed short to unload some of the shorts lower down the line (higher first = you can close larger positionsize). As many microlots as you can. I know it doesn't make sense "if it goes further down then I closed for nothing..." but if you're really afraid of not having enough margin to support higher moves, then you should start thinking about an evacuation plan and use all profits you make to start unloading your position size to a more manageable position size. Don't focus and hope it will go in your direction but expect it to go in the other direction and act accordingly. Then you will see that unloading is the only thing that you should be doing right now (operation: rescue account). Good luck.

(PS full disclosure: you can see I have experience in this matter because I also made these mistakes time and again)
  • #139,950
  • Apr 14, 2016 7:02am Apr 14, 2016 7:02am
Quoting IMARICH1
ExForX: "I'm starting to see that Sisse might try to point out that you're machine gun trading again (and trying to catch smaller fish with a bigger boat, afraid to miss out an opportunity?). I could be wrong but that's what I would think. If your map is mid term you shouldn't trade short term and vice versa." Thanks for your input into my thinking or trading errs. I think I am confused now. I know when we were at the TOP of this range (.139X) that sisse gave us the choice of either BUYING to .149X or SELLING to .1290. At the time the...
Don't be upset or surprised ... It's all k u learnt a lesson which was directly or indirectly given by sisse ... One thing is confirmed atleast u have the ability to learn whether it's your own mistakes or a nice advise given by someone... All I can say is that never repeat your mistakes once it is Confirmed it was a wrong strategy...
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,951
  • Edited 8:28am Apr 14, 2016 8:17am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting IMARICH1
....I took this to mean that I would not SELL from the inside at .129X (target) and wait for a retrace to .139X or to the HH's (Exhaustion area). This is the ONLY reason I took a BUY from .129X to .139X..
This is exactly the 3er hint in the exercise I wanted raise and is especially directed not necessarily to you but quite a few traders that hang around here: Overtrading.

--> Look there is no right or wrong answer in trading but you keep making the same huge mistakes in the way you manage your trading flow. You still think that the TA 'technicality' on how to pull the trigger will give you an edge over direction or that knowing/trading every single mini, micro , short, mid, long term wave will make you a better trader (when is quite the opposite... I personally admire and respect more traders that are v. clear when to stay sidelined instead of always in)

--> If you spend hours (and we have done in the last few weeks) defining your direction is not just for the sake of doing it !!!!, you do it because it force you to create a consistent path that you can evaluate to achieve better results. In this particular case, either you sit tight and enjoy the cheap or remain of the cheap ticket (thats why positioning management is so important in trading) or you just DO nothing ....

--> In simple words, if you are 'right' in the direction, ANY TA will work ANY !!!!!! A stochastic, a sluggish MACD, a FIB, a MOFU or WORFU or what have you. The only way to EVALUATE and achieve consistent results is

  1. Obviously use whatever tool FA and TA to try to be in the 'right side' of the market
  2. Equally IMPORTANT !!!!! is following a CLEAR and CONSISTENT PATH even if you are WRONG in the direction analysis (and we all are at some point).


Try to train your brain to follow your analysis:

  1. Your 'DIRECTION' (yours and only yours nobody else !!!!) said SELL
  2. what do you do? you only look for opportunities to sell cause its the path of least resistance.
  3. how do you do it? try to find 'value' areas to trade instead of being the eternal chaser and lagger
  4. So where? if its a sell you look for cheap tickets on the extremes or a more risky (advanced) entry on the momentum break...
  5. What do you want to AVOID? Being the SUCKER getting caught selling the lows and more importantly 'trading/fading' the pullbacks !!!!... and thats exactly what you did in your last call ...

--> The day you break the mental handicap of thinking of '...I better take the pullback/retrace quickly and then i load big etc....' you will start seeing a WHOLE NEW WORLD. I can guarantee if you do that you wil always end up taking neither side or even worst a lost and getting lost in translation for the next trade.

--> Train your brain and habits to automatically stop acting in emotional short term instincts but rather acting on a clear path. When markets move and break, we have the tendency to delete from our brain the path and analysis we build when markets are sleeping and our rational and clear part of the brain is working in our favour....

In a nutshell: Make the direction from your analysis YOURS !!!. SO if its sell DAMN SELL. If you think markets will retrace but you are not sure, etc etc YOU JUST DO? .... DO nothing ...there is nothing to see ...don't sabotage yourself...Don't do or even think on doing the opposite of what your hard-working plan is telling you ...

I hope it helps ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,952
  • Apr 14, 2016 9:06am Apr 14, 2016 9:06am
Quoting sisse
{quote} This is exactly the 3er hint in the exercise I wanted raise and is especially directed not necessarily to you but quite a few traders that hang around here: Overtrading. --> Look there is no right or wrong answer in trading but you keep making the same huge mistakes in the way you manage your trading flow. You still think that the TA 'technicality' on how to pull the trigger will give you an edge over direction or that knowing/trading every single mini, micro , short, mid, long term wave will make you a better trader (when is quite the opposite......
Sisse, great post, thank you for that. It's helping me.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #139,953
  • Apr 14, 2016 9:34am Apr 14, 2016 9:34am
Thanks sisse! That helped alot!

I sensed I should do nothing but keep my trade and take partial profit since the target was reached. I felt I could better understand the market once inflation numbers were in. I really felt like doing nothing and should have stuck with that but when you thru the OUTLOOK is to SELL, I felt trapped.

If I SELL at this target .129X, that would be wrong so the only option would be to BUY which I didn't want to do. However, I didn't think about being neutral and doing nothing. But, that is always an option if unsure.

I appreciate your words of wisdom. This helps. The explanation is sound.
  • #139,954
  • Apr 14, 2016 9:54am Apr 14, 2016 9:54am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}well, we must wonder what & when will be the upper limit for a bull breakout. I have been guessing all year m/l that we could see new SnP ath's in a move thru April and perhaps into May, but May being the limit ahead of the June Brexit referendum & June FOMC combo - a classic "sell in May, go away" scenario....a pump 'n dump.....now with oil trying to rally back into the $50's...won't be a better chance for it until after the US prexy elections. Anyhoo, it won't surprise me to see a 3-4 week solid breakout, if oil will come along, with...
Hey,
To me, ES making new high above 2135 needs DXY breaking down 93.1x
but this area - DXY below 93.1x - is IMO absolutely not wanted both by FED and ECB so odds for ES to make HH are really small till the end of normalization

For European Equities Im expecting 1049x ext 10600 for Dax and 468x ext 4750 for Cac as final targets
  • #139,955
  • Apr 14, 2016 10:26am Apr 14, 2016 10:26am
Quoting sisse
{quote} This is exactly the 3er hint in the exercise I wanted raise and is especially directed not necessarily to you but quite a few traders that hang around here: Overtrading. --> Look there is no right or wrong answer in trading but you keep making the same huge mistakes in the way you manage your trading flow. You still think that the TA 'technicality' on how to pull the trigger will give you an edge over direction or that knowing/trading every single mini, micro , short, mid, long term wave will make you a better trader (when is quite the...
5 star explanation ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,956
  • Apr 14, 2016 10:39am Apr 14, 2016 10:39am
Quoting Replicant
... so odds for ES to make HH are really small till the end of normalization
if I were the modern (robot) equivalent of Jesse Livermore, I would be looking out 2-3 months at that big bank of storm clouds rolling across the market horizon and I would be saying to my (collective robotic) self (in robotic voice, like Bender): "omg, I got to run this shit up into that mess and then short the hell out of it yo."

I fully expect last summer's highs to be tested in the next month, at least....hh's won't surprise me a tall. Recognize I am trading fully bidirectionally....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,957
  • Apr 15, 2016 6:23am Apr 15, 2016 6:23am
Quoting sisse
{quote}ANY TA will work ANY !!!!!! A stochastic, a sluggish MACD, a FIB, a MOFU or WORFU or what have you. .... sisse
can you teach me the WORFU?!

  • #139,958
  • Apr 15, 2016 11:45am Apr 15, 2016 11:45am
Quoting Jay Walker
{quote} Sisse, great post, thank you for that. It's helping me.
hey thanks ...nice to see you around

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} can you teach me the WORFU?!
Oh you really don't know??? Shame on you, you are getting older in this business : ) ... you really need to catch up with the latest fad otherwise ....

Quoting sisse
... ++++ Quick Call 2++++ Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing Current Euro price @ 1.127x (elapsed time 0 days 12 hours)

++++ Quick Call 2 [update 2]++++

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.128x (elapsed time 1 day 12 hours)


-> LMT BUY to 1.139x

eborn

build11

primejarvis

chester123

nonlinear

goosebone

Pixie666

glassblower

IMARICH1

------------------------------------ ---------

Quoting TheSwede

-> LMT BUY to 1.139x (Neutral)

------------------------------------ ---------

-> LMT SELL to 1.119x

Pharm0r

mclon

shackleton

monkey@forex

Rockerzeus


Euro struggling to hold the weekly close. Bears have ruled all week long. Every rally was answered with force. As widely expected since last week, Dollar entering in key long/mid and short term area and things got a lot more 'sensitive' across the FX board.

Quoting sisse
All eyes in Dollar DXY 94.4x as a major short/mid/ and long term rain maker for the upcoming sessions/weeks and months. Setting the low of this year (2016) for the spring in play in Dollar so choose your position time cross the FX board ...
​
No surprise with Dollar hovering around 94.4 for the W close, however bulls couldn't set a hard low (and this is for the low of the year and a long/mid and short term low in play !!!!). Without FA triggers to close the deal and a timid push TAwise, the floor is still feeble and open as for this Week close.

On the Euro bears with a strong close and holding the upper hand short term but still stuck in neutral outlook both short and mid term. Testing the bottom of the range seems unavoidable if just by inertia alone to 1.116x ... for the guys in the exercise no winners so far all still open ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,959
  • Apr 15, 2016 12:21pm Apr 15, 2016 12:21pm
All eyes on the close in US equities. The miss in the latest round of inflation numbers is giving extra fuel for the rest of the month. However, China couldn't put a stop in the soft landing (even if it just from the 'official' numbers) and we keep trending in a solid downtrend (9 consecutive Q ticking down and 19 of the last 24 Quarters!!!).

S&P 2080.xx is set to hold the W close but we have a mid term in play overriding the current leg and it's inches away to unlock a potential break for ATH before a very grim and dark summer on sight. For now, all levels raised after today's close with 2087/9x as the rain maker for the rest of April.

More interestingly short term, GOLD losing 1230.xx will confirm the change of short term outlook from NEUTRAL to SELL for the spring in tandem with YEN via risk (UJ to test the 106.xx handle).

Here flattening all in Equities for the close and flat in OIL, EURO and Sterling. But actively looking to load in Euro and OIL for next week ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,960
  • Apr 15, 2016 1:44pm Apr 15, 2016 1:44pm
Quoting sisse
All eyes on the close in US equities. The miss in the latest round of inflation numbers is giving extra fuel for the rest of the month. However, China couldn't put a stop in the soft landing (even if it just from the 'official' numbers) and we keep trending in a solid downtrend (9 consecutive Q ticking down and 19 of the last 24 Quarters!!!). S&P 2080.xx is set to hold the W close but we have a mid term in play overriding the current leg and it's inches away to unlock a potential break for ATH before a very grim and dark summer on sight. For now,...
Looking to load short for EU or long?

Seems to me dollar will take a beating this quarter
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